What We Know About The Possible Nor'easter On Friday (And Other Storminess)

A little brighter, a little whiter after the 1.2 inches of snow
we received in St Albans, Vermont yesterday and last night

 It's a little whiter, a little brighter and little ore in keeping with the holiday season out there this morning as many of us have received an inch or so of snow, pretty much in line with previous forecasts.

Early indications are a few places over-performed slightly. I received 1.2 inches of snow in St. Albans, a place where forecasters had called for less than an inch. 

There are still some slick spots on the roads this morning, so you might want to give yourself a bit of extra time to get to work today. I have heard the state truck going back and forth by my house before dawn this morning

We have a fairly wintry week coming up, punctuated by a possible nor'easter toward Friday. We might, or might not get a bunch of snow out of it. But things are starting to come together to at least give Vermont the possibility of a decent dump. 

We'll explain more in just a sec, but we have the early and mid part of the week to get through, too.

Today and most of tomorrow will be pretty quiet and cold with temperatures remaining below freezing.

Tuesday night, we'll have an echo of sorts of the weak storm we had yesterday and last night. That weak storm will turn into a pretty strong nor'easter off the coast of Nova Scotia tonight and Tuesday. That, in turn, will swing a cold front down from that northeast, setting off more snow showers Tuesday night. 

We could squeeze out another inch of snow out of that. Then we'll have a windy, cold day Wednesday, then a quiet one Thursday in anticipation of the possible storm.

THE SET UP:

This is a coast to coast storm for the United States. The system dumped feet of snow in California's Sierra Nevada range. That's a good thing, since they need that winter accumulation. Even if the deep snow blocked highways through those mountains. 

The storm is now beginning to cross the Rocky Mountains, and will start to reorganize in eastern Colorado later today and tomorrow. 

One of many possible weather map scenarios for a storm
that might affect us in Vermont on Friday.

This will make a widespread blizzard blossom in parts of Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota. Mixed precipitation and dangerous ice accumulations could be a problem Tuesday in the eastern Dakotas.

On the warm side of the storm, a couple tornadoes might spin up in western Kansas today, which is pretty far north and west for that kind of thing this time of year. The storm poses a greater threat of spitting out tornadoes in and around Louisiana tomorrow, so forecasters will need to keep an eye out for that.

The storm system will get quite strong in the northern Plains during the first half of this week,  then start to slowly weaken over the western Great Lakes.  Its cold front will zoom out ahead of it. On Thursday, the front will be nearing the Mid-Atlantic states, with a warm front extending east from it in that general region.

Here's where it starts to get interesting for us Vermonters. A storm will start to form where the cold and warm front intersect. That storm will strengthen as it moves up the coast. That weakening parent storm in the Great Lakes will tend to steer the new system up the coast, rather than out to sea. 

This all means there's a rising chance of a decent dump of, well, something, on Vermont Friday into Saturday.  It's not a slam dunk. Every model run gives a slightly different scenario. The storm could still veer out to sea, but for now, it looks close enough to give us a shot at a noticeable storm.

If the storm goes right along the coast, but not too far inland, that sets Vermont up for a good snowstorm. At least on paper. 

With the storm more than four days away, we have lots of questions, with no answers yet:

Will warm air get pulled into the storm and turn snow into rain or a mix? If so, where in Vermont might that happen?  If it does happen, will it melt all the snow, or turn it into an icy mess, or have no effect at all?

If this is going to be snowstorm, where will the heaviest snow fall?  Depending upon the track of the storm, the deepest snow could focus in southeastern Vermont, or further north and west. 

Will the snow be light and fluffy or heavy and wet?  Heavy and wet would be a problem if there's a lot of it, since it would bring down trees and power lines.

What exactly is the timing of this thing?  We know it'll be in the Friday and Saturday range, but will the storm impact the commutes on Friday? If so, morning or evening?

These questions and others will gradually get answered and refined as we get closer to the timing of the storm.

If we do end up receiving a decent dump of snow, chances are it will last through Christmas.  It seems like we'll have mostly chi