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| The latest snow forecast map from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Forecasters are increasingly optimistic that the entire state will receive at least several inches of snow. The mountains will be the big winners. |
At least there's consistency.
The National Weather Service office in Burlington has upgraded all winter storm watches into winter storm warnings statewide, so that makes things pretty inevitable.
It still looks like the big winners with the storm will be the mountains and ski areas, which will basically get what will feel like a never ending snowfall. In some parts of Green Mountains, especially the northern half of that range, it'll start snowing early Friday morning. That snow up there could keep going well into Sunday.
Yay for the ski areas!
The lower in the valleys you are, the more you will sort of lose out. It'll still snow, and accumulate, but much of it will be a wet slushy mess, some rain could still get thrown in, it'll be a pain in the butt, and the back and everything else to shovel, and you could lose electricity. If you have to drive anywhere during this, that'll be annoying at best, too.
Um, yay? Sort of?
The scenario for this still pictures this storm lasting a long time, and coming in waves. We still have lots of question marks and some of those question marks will persist right up into the storm itself, so we'll have to adjust as we go along.
The first burst of snow will move south to north across Vermont early Friday, and make for an, um, interesting Friday morning commute. In some places, the snow will be coming down hard, maybe at a pace of one to two inches per hour, so the plow trucks will have trouble keeping up. Wet snow is also more slippery than a midwinter powder fest, so that will be a factor Friday morning, too.
East winds might block some of the moisture, so places right along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seem like they'll have somewhat lighter snow. Plus, compressional warming as the air flows down the west slopes of the Greens could turn the snow to rain in low elevations immediately below those mountains.
As the morning wears on and into the afternoon, the snow will taper off, as Wave #1 passes off into Quebec. The higher elevations will still be receiving light to sometimes moderate snow. Some of the lower elevations in the Champlain Valley, southwestern Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley look like they stand a good shot of going over to light rain, sprinkles, drizzle and fog for the midday hours Friday.
As the storm consolidates along the New England coast, a band of heavier snow looks like it wants to redevelop somewhere over central and northern Vermont later afternoon Friday into the evening.
Where that band sets up, even if it does, is tricky, so this part of the forecast really has a high bust potential. Could be a great burst, could be a nothingburger. I'm leaning toward a burst of snow, with maybe a few inches of new snow Friday evening.
Here's another complicating factor: If you've been reading this blog thingy for the past couple of days, you'll see I keep mentioning the American computer forecasting models want to take the storm further off the coast. The other models have it hugging the New England coast more.
The American model was still trying this morning - at least a little - to push the storm offshore. That could still happen. High pressure over eastern Canada and a strong storm east of that high, could deflect the storm that way. I'm not saying that's definitely what will happen, but it remains possible.
In any event, northwest winds will wrap moisture back around into Vermont Friday night and Saturday. This will favor the western slopes that will have missed out on the first part of the storm. Everybody wins! Feels like Oprah. "You get some snow! And YOU get some snow! You too!"
Overall, the National Weather Service is going with a mid-sized, if sloppy wet snow in the valleys, with generally four to ten inches expected. Remember, this storm has a high bust potential. Expect the unexpected, as we could be surprised with extra rain, or extra snow in some of the valleys.
Since this is a long lasting event, the mountains, as noted, will be the big winners, with a foot to foot and a half of snow. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some higher elevations clock in with two feet by Sunday afternoon.
Scattered power outages seem like a good bet, too, especially on east facing slopes that are still at low enough elevations to see wet snow and not more powdery stuff. My best guess is the most outages would be in the southern Greens roughly between Wilmington and Bridgewater.
Bottom line, this storm will be both a pain in the neck and a reason to celebrate. Ski areas get a nice dump just in time for Christmas week. So the resorts are happy, and so will the Vermont Department of Taxes, given the anticipated sales tax revenue this storm could bring.
For valley dwellers, the good thing is there will be snow to play in, and it wills stick around through Christmas Day to get you into the holiday spirit, if you're not there already.
On the not so happy side with this storm, if you're out of shape or worried about your heart health, please get some robust, brawny teenager to shovel your driveway. Meanwhile, you can sit inside with your hot chocolate and rifle through your wallet looking for cash to pay said teenager. Or maybe just Venmo them, I don't know.
Also remember, you might be great at driving in the snow, but some people are, frankly idiots. Drive defensively in this one. Also, check on your elderly neighbors, especially if the power goes out.
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