Grading The Forecast: Remarkably Accurate, But Vermont Storm Over-Performed

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues
this snowfall forecast early Wednesday morning, two days
before our recent storm started Note the heaviest amounts
in the southern Green Mountains and parts of the Adirondacks, 
with lighter totals in the Champlain Valley and Northeast
Kingdom. Click on the map to make it 
bigger and easier to see.

 The big storm we just had was incredibly tricky to forecast, but I have to hand it to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington and other local meteorologists. 
 

Their forecasts turned out to be pretty darn accurate.

The meteorologists pinned down pretty much exactly where the heaviest and lightest accumulations would be. 

 The only thing that was off is that some areas received more snow than forecast. The overall predictions on amounts were great, but on the high side of what the meteorologists predicted.

The first map on this page is what the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was predicted early Wednesday morning, two days before the storm.

At that point, a lot could have gone wrong. Some computer models were taking the storm out to sea.  There were questions about temperatures, and whether an area of moderate to heavy-ish snow would set up toward the end of the storm over northern Vermont. 

Actual accumulations with the storm. The distribution of
where the heaviest and lightest amounts would fall 
was spot on, though some of the totals were 
greater than forecast. Click on this map, too
to make it easier to see and bigger.

As the event got closer, forecasters gradually got a little more confident in the expected makeup of the storm. 

The distribution of where the heaviest snow would come down stayed pretty much the same on forecast maps, but they increased the amount of snow that would fall. 

The second map on this page is ground truth. The National Weather Service on Saturday compiled a map showing areawide accumulations, based upon dozens of reports they received. 

The "results map" is strikingly similar to the forecast maps. The only difference, as noted, is some of the actual amounts were higher than forecast. 

This was some great forecasting on what was an especially challenging storm to predict. Lets hope their expertise continues like this all winter.