Tuesday, December 6, 2022

2022 Hurricane Season Just Ended (Maybe): Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Awful, And Weird

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian just about to slam
into southwestern Florida on September 28.
Sometimes the end of a season is a good thing. The conclusion of hurricane season last week is one of those good things.  

The Atlantic Ocean's hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, though you can get a tropical storm sometimes outside of those dates. In fact, as I write this, a disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean has a decent chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical storm this week.

Overall, this hurricane season was both less intense than in recent years and also less intense than had been predicted. 

As Jeff Masters, writing for Yale Climate Connections reports:

"The 2022 hurricane season draws to an official close on November 30, after generating 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 95.  Those numbers compare with the 1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 123.

Thus, the season was near average for number of named storms and hurricanes, and below average for major hurricanes and ACE index, and it breaks an unprecedented streak of six consecutive years with an above average ACE index."

I'd better explain ACE index here. 

Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is kind of complicated. Without getting totally in the weeds, it has to do with a tropical storm or hurricanes maximum sustained winds, as measured every six hours. 

It is a convenient way to compare hurricane seasons. A long lasting, strong hurricane will contribute many ACE points. Then again, a large swarm of modest tropical storms or relatively weak hurricanes would do the same.

We did see two or three really destructive, extreme hurricanes amid a season that featured plenty of weak, short-lived tropical storms. It only takes one or two hurricanes to really cause some pretty extreme disasters. We had that for sure in 2022.

The worst of the bunch was surely Hurricane Ian, which killed at least 145 people and caused more than $50 billion in damage. It was the fifth deadliest Atlantic hurricane of the past 60 years, Masters reports.

The National Hurricane Center recycles hurricane names every six years unless a particular hurricane is exceptionally destructive and/or deadly.  So I'm sure they'll ditch the name Ian, and come up with some other name for the "I" hurricane in six years. 

The 2022 hurricane season got off to a really quiet start, which surprised pretty much everybody. 

When there's a La Nina weather and ocean pattern, the Atlantic hurricane season is almost always pretty damn active. (La Nina is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters off the west coast of South America).

La Nina was big in 2020 and 2021 and we had plenty of tropical storms, including a pretty high number of early season storms. 

Satellite view of Hurricane Fiona dumping feet of rain on
Puerto Rico. Fiona later turned north, causing the worst
storm damage on record in Atlantic Canada.

We had no named storms in the Atlantic Ocean between July 3 and August 31, the first time that has happened since 1941, notes Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane expert.

Meteorologists are puzzling a bit over the lack of storms early in the season. For some reason, upper level winds over the Atlantic remained strong, which tore apart any system that wanted to become a tropical storm. Also atmospheric moisture over much of the Atlantic Ocean was lacking in July and August.

La Nina probably influenced the later part of the 2022 hurricane season, which was especially busy. October was super quiet, then November hit. 

November doesn't usually produce many tropical storms and hurricanes, and those that do form tend to be nothing burger tropical storms or brief, weak hurricanes. 

Here are the November stats, from Klotzbach:

-- November had three hurricanes (Lisa, Martin and Nicole, tying with 2011 with the most November hurricanes on record.

---Hurricanes Lisa and Martin had top sustained winds of 85 mph at exactly the same time in November. That's the first time two November hurricanes were simultaneously that strong since 1932.

--- Hurricane Lisa hit Belize on November 2 the first November hurricane in that Central American nation

---Hurricane Nicole was the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall along the east coast of Florida. 

So let's face it, the marquee hurricanes in 2022 were Ian, Fiona and Nicole.

HURRICANE IAN

Hurricane Ian will be most remembered for its incredible storm surge around Fort Myers, Naples and Sanibel and Pine islands.

Masters in Yale Climate Connections again:

"The primary reason for Ian's high death toll is straightforward:  A large number of people in a vulnerable location being hit by a strong hurricane, increasing the risk of deaths. The amount of risky development that has occurred in southwest Florida, near sea level, on barrier islands, and on former wetlands - was a disaster waiting to happen, and it happened. Cape Coral, where some of Ian's deaths were reported, was a particularly vulnerable location because of unwise building practices."

In general, deaths from hurricanes in the United States had been declining, but Ian added more evidence that that lower death toll has bottomed out and reversed, as I noted in a post back in October.  Ian was the nation's sixth deadliest hurricane since 1963.

Hurricane Ian was also the eighth costliest United States hurricane, in a list corrected for inflation over the years. Ian caused at least $50 billion in damage.

HURRICANE FIONA

To be honest, it's not all that surprising that Hurricane Fiona caused so much trouble in Puerto Rico.  The island regularly gets hit by hurricanes.  Flash flooding on Puerto Rico's steep topography is inevitable. 

Still, rainfall on Puerto Rico was extreme even by their standards. Ponce received 31.34 inches of rain. Rio Cerrillos, Puerto Rico had 27.14 inches of rain within 24 hours, setting a new record on the island for most rain in that short of a time period. 

The island also has a criminally weak haphazard electrical grid, so power outages become widespread even in relatively mild tropical storms.

After trashing Puerto Rico Fiona took a sharp right hand turn and made a beeline into Atlantic Canada, with devastating results. 

Dying tropical storms and hurricanes hit parts of eastern Canada occasionally, but Fiona was especially concerning, and might well have been influenced by climate change. 

Water temperatures off the coast of New England and Canada were far above average, following a pretty consistent trend in recent years. The warm water allowed Fiona to maintain much of its strength, even as it was in the process of transitioning from a tropical system to an intense non-tropical system.

This meant Fiona's wind and storm surge were much worse than Atlantic Canada has seen from past tropical systems. Damage came to at least $495 million, making it the worst storm on record for this part of Canada.

HURRICANE NICOLE 

Hurricane Nicole demonstrated graphically how a previous hurricane can "prime the pump" and make a new hurricane much more damaging than it otherwise would be. 

Although Hurricane Ian primarily damaged southwestern Florida, Ian still caused a lot of beach erosion and other coastal damage along the east coast of Florida.

There was really no time to repair that damage before Nicole came ashore not far from Vero Beach in November.  Although Nicole arrived unusually late in the season, on November 10.  It was "only" a category one hurricane, with top winds of 75 mph.

A Florida hurricane of that strength would normally only cause minor to moderate storm surge damage, relatively light wind damage and some inland flooding. 

However, with the previous damage from Ian still there, Nicole caused enormous damage to coastal homes and high rises. Numerous homes, especially near and in Daytona Beach, toppled into the sea.  Several high rises were evacuated after being undermined by Nicole's storm surge.

These three destructive hurricanes show that even in what is considered a "meh" year for tropical storm activity, the United States and other nations can suffer extraordinary cruel blows from these storms.


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