Florida A Bit Smaller After Nicole, Houses Collapse Into Sea; Vermont Still Due For A Soaker

 A Daytona Beach high rise teeters on the 
edge of coastal erosion after 
Hurricane Nicole

 The damage from Hurricane Nicole along Florida's east coast, especially around Daytona Beach, is pretty shocking, given that the storm was not especially strong by Florida hurricane standards. 

Drone video from StormChasingVideo shows houses on the edge of cliffs on newly eroded sand dunes. Most beachfront homes, apartments and condominiums have swimming pools facing the beach. 

 Dozens of those pools collapsed into the water. Some high rise condominiums now have exposed footings, and I'd certainly be tempted to test the structural integrity of these buildings. 

Structural engineers who are a lot smarter than me had the same idea. According to the Associated Press: 

"Two dozen hotels and condominium towers, one 22 stories tall, had to be evacuated in Daytona Beach Shores and New Smyrna Beach after building inspectors in Volusia County determined they were structurally unsafe."

At least 25 beachfront homes in a neighboring town were evacuated for the same reason, the AP reports. 

Anyone would expect some storm surge damage from a Category One Hurricane like Nicole. However, this damage is worse than you would think from any random Cat 1 storm in the past. 

One problem is climate change. Sea levels have risen, so Nicole's storm surges reached further inland and were powerful than we would have seen in a similar-sized storm decades ago. 

Earlier this autumn, Hurricane Ian, quite possibly strengthened in part by climate change, damaged sea walls along Florida's coasts, and there was little time to repair them before Nicole hit. That allowed Nicole to really do a number on many coastal properties.

Even further, Nicole started as a subtropical storm, which means it was a large storm that had a big fetch of east winds north of its center. That sent even more water smacking into places like Daytona Beach.  

By the way, Nicole hit pretty late in the season. It's possible - again - that climate change had a role in this. Water temperatures were above normal along the path of Nicole as it came through the Bahamas and toward Florida.

Hurricane love warm water. The hotter the water, the more hurricanes can thrive. Nicole probably wouldn't have been as strong as it was without the bath water conditions it encountered.

The remains of Nicole were over Georgia this morning, spreading heavy rain into the Southeast, and prompting a tornado watch in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.

NICOLE VERMONT UPDATE

It quickly became cloudy over Vermont this morning as Nicole's cloud shield raced northward up the East Coast. 

It looks like the remains of Nicole will give us two shots of pretty heavy rain, with a break overnight that will just contain lighter showers. 

The latest rainfall forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. Widespread one to two
amounts are forecast, with some areas even getting
a little more than that

A surge of tropical air will cause a lot of lift in the atmosphere in Vermont later this afternoon and evening. Rising air means precipitation. Since we'll have so much deep moisture in the air, the rain that moves in this afternoon will quickly become moderate to heavy. 

Then, what remains of Nicole's circulation will pull in a little bit of dry air, so the rain will turn lighter and showery later on tonight. 

But then there's that cold front from the west that Nicole is hooking up with. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that front will have a narrow line of torrential rains along it. And maybe a thunderstorm or two mixed in just for laughs and giggles.

It's possible there might be some gusty winds with some of these downpours, too, so it might be kind of an exciting Vermont daybreak.

That band of heavy rain will cross Vermont from west to east starting in the hours before dawn and ending by about noon when the cold front moves off into New Hampshire. 

It's still looking like most of us will see one to two inches of rain out of this, with the most maybe on the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Flooding risks aren't that high. But when that cold front with its torrential downpours comes through early Saturday, there could be some spots with street flooding, ponding on roads, erosion problems on steep driveways and the edges of gravel roads, that kind of thing. 

Yes, winter is still coming. Those Vermont ski areas will have plenty of water to work with when they fire up their snow making guns starting on Sunday and continuing through next week and beyond. 

Burlington, Vermont has not had its first snow flurry of the season yet.  That's nearly a month later than normal and the latest first flurry since November 16, 2007.

I'm pretty sure the city will see its first snowflakes of the season before the upcoming week is out.