Florida Hurricanes In 2004 and 2022 Eerily Similar. And Other Strange Tropical Coincidences

The Washington Post gave us this graphic, showing
the remarkable similarities in paths for hurricanes Charle
and Jeanne in 2004, and Ian and Nicole
in 2022

Now that Hurricane Nicole is long gone, the Washington Post and many other meteorologists are struck by a strange Florida hurricane coincidence.  

In 2004, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Charley roared ashore from the Gulf of Mexico into Cayo Costa, Florida. It moved northeastward across the state. Just 43 days later, Hurricane Jeanne came in off the Atlantic and hit the east coast of Florida, making landfall south of Daytona Beach.  Jeanne's path crossed Charlie's in central Florida.

In 2022, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Ian roared ashore from the Gulf of Mexico into Cayo Costa  Florida. It moved northeastward across the state. Just 43 days later, Hurricane Nicole came in off the Atlantic and hit the east coast of Florida, making landfall south of Daytona Beach. Jeanne's path crossed Ian's in central Florida.

You probably noticed the similarities between the two previous paragraphs. 

The Washington Post reports the similarities between the four storms was first noticed by Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist for Tampa television station WINK.

In that busy hurricane season of 2004, Hurricane Frances and the above mentioned Hurricane Jeanne came ashore in Florida at the exact same spot, Hutchinson Island, less than three weeks apart. 

Weather is so complicated, with so much going on, there's bound to be strange coincidences. There's a few others that involve tropical storm, like the double Allison the Weather Channel highlights 

In June, 1989, Tropical Storm Allison, came ashore near Houston and meandered around southeastern Texas and Louisiana for days. The slow moving storm dumped 10 to 25 inches of rain, which produced flooding that killed 11 people.

The National Hurricane Center rotates through names that are repeated once every sixth year. If a hurricane is especially notorious, the name is retired and replaced. Allison was not deemed big enough to be replaced.

Which meant another Tropical Storm Allison came ashore near Houston in 2001. Like the previous Allison, it meandered around southeastern Texas for a few days, dumping up to 40 inches of rain and producing catastrophic flooding that killed 23 people.

With that, the National Hurricane Center decided to retire the name "Allison" from its roster.

On Sept. 16, 1988, Gilbert, which had been a monster Category 5 storm with the lowest pressure ever observed in the Western Hemisphere up to that point, landed as a Category 3 cyclone at La Pesca, Mexico. 

Twenty-five years later on the exact same date, high end Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the exact same spot - La Pesca, Mexico.

In 2021, two dying tropical storms  came ashore within a month or so of each other in Westerly, Rhode Island.  Elsa hit Westerly at 12:15 p.m. July 9.  Henri limped into Westerly on August 22 at - you guessed it - 12:15 p.m. 

By the way, another tropical storm hit the unlikely target of Westerly in 1985.  It's name? Henri.  Yep, another one.  

Another Weird Summer In November Event Just Happened. Now, Welcome To Winter

The tiny stream that runs by our St. Albans, Vermont house,
which in a grandiose way we named the Woof River, was
at its highest level in since at least this past spring
after heavy overnight rain. Still well short of rising enough
to cause any problems, though. 

 The remnants of Hurricane Nicole just gave Vermont yet another weird dose of summer in November weather overnight, with off-hours record breaking high temperatures, and more tropical downpours. 

This is it, though. 

Temperatures will cool today, and winter will start tomorrow. Before you get too nervous, by winter, I mean temperatures that hold in the 30s to near 40 by day, and subfreezing at night. With some snow risk. More on that a moment. 

But first, the remarkable warmth, once again. 

It started yesterday, when the temperature reached 69 degrees in Burlington.  That was just two degrees shy of the record high for the date. 

Then, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole pushed even warmer, more humid air into Vermont overnight.  The temperature in Burlington rose to 71 degrees at around 4 a.m., breaking the record high for the date of 70, set in 2012.

This record is all the more remarkable because record highs usually occur in the afternoon, not at what is normally about the coldest part of the day. (That said, record highs are sometimes, though rarely set at night between late autumn and early spring  in Vermont).

Dew points - a good measure of how humid the air feels - were in the low to mid 60s in the predawn hours across Vermont. That's the second time it's been so humid this month in Vermont. Such humidity levels are practically unheard of this late in the season.  

While Burlington was at its record high of 71 degrees before dawn, the dew point was 65. That would have been regarded as a pretty muggy night for us in July. No records are kept on dew points that I know of, but I'm pretty sure that's the highest humidity I've ever seen in Vermont so late in the season.

Ten of the first 12 days of November this year have had highs of at least 60 degrees in Burlington. The normal highs during this period are within a couple degrees of 50.

I've still got a couple flowers blooming in pots that I haven't taken in yet. Truly bizarre for November. Yet again. 

 On top of the warmth, the cold front coming into it created more torrential downpours, the kind you see in the summer. The same thing happened in parts of Vermont last Sunday.

A flower tries to hang on in an outdoor flower pot I haven't 
stored away yet. It's been warm enough for some outdoor
plants to stay green. Some day lilies I cut down for 
the winter are starting to grow back again. 

This time it was more widespread, as a north to south band of heavy rains crossed the state this morning. Burlington had 0.74 inches of rain in just one hour. 

As expected, storm total rainfall is over one inch for most of us, and approaching two inches for some people. 

Burlington was closing in on 1.5 inches for a storm total as of 8 a.m. I haven't seen any reports of flooding, other than ponding of water on roads, that kind of thing. 

The rain will taper off this morning and temperatures will cool during the day. This is the end of the wacko summer in November regime we've experienced. 

WELCOME TO WINTER 

The cold front this morning represents the major pattern change we've been talking about that will keep us generally colder than normal for much of the rest of the month. 

I'm exaggerating a bit when I say winter is coming up next week. It won't be the least bit extreme for November. But this time of year, when it's even a little cooler than average, it can still feel pretty wintry and bleak.  

Even though no big snowstorms are imminent,  make sure pretty quickly that you're all set with snow tires, and your snow shovels are at the ready. 

Sunday won't be all that bad for November, with highs in the mid and upper 40s and just scattered cold, light rain showers around.  That's absolutely, perfectly normal for this time of year.

Monday and Tuesday get more wintry, with highs staying near or a little under 40 degrees. Raw and nasty. If it does snow, it'll probably just amount to snow flurries in the mountains. Again, it's November.

Our best shot of snow comes Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A coastal storm wants to get itself together. But it won't be a powerhouse. And it might go too far east and south to give us a lot of precipitation. 

There's still a lot of question marks with this one, though. But expect at least a little wet snow and maybe some low elevation cold rain with that midweek system.

As advertised, the colder weather pattern for much of the nation seems like it wants to last a good 10 days to even two weeks.

In general, the core of the coldest air seems like it wants to stay to our west, over the Midwest and Plains and probably the northern Rockies. So it will be a long chilly spell, but mostly not out of the ordinary for this dark, clammy and chilly time of year.  And there might even be a warm-ish day or two thrown in the mix if we're lucky. 

Remarkably, Burlington, Vermont has not had its first snow flurry of the season yet, while cities far to our south have. Oklahoma City joined the Burlington snow beaters last night, picking up 0.4 inches of snow. 

Other southern locales that have had snow before us include St. Louis and parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

The lack of autumn snow in Vermont tells us nothing about whether we'll have a snowy winter or not. There's plenty of examples of a winter that starts out with practically no snow then ends up burying us. 

The most notorious example was the winter of 1992-93. Through December 31 that winter, only a paltry 5.5 inches of snow had fallen in Burlington.  By the time that winter was over, the snow total was 116.9 inches. That's our fifth snowiest winter on record. 

So skiers and riders, chin up! 

Florida A Bit Smaller After Nicole, Houses Collapse Into Sea; Vermont Still Due For A Soaker

 A Daytona Beach high rise teeters on the 
edge of coastal erosion after 
Hurricane Nicole

 The damage from Hurricane Nicole along Florida's east coast, especially around Daytona Beach, is pretty shocking, given that the storm was not especially strong by Florida hurricane standards. 

Drone video from StormChasingVideo shows houses on the edge of cliffs on newly eroded sand dunes. Most beachfront homes, apartments and condominiums have swimming pools facing the beach. 

 Dozens of those pools collapsed into the water. Some high rise condominiums now have exposed footings, and I'd certainly be tempted to test the structural integrity of these buildings. 

Structural engineers who are a lot smarter than me had the same idea. According to the Associated Press: 

"Two dozen hotels and condominium towers, one 22 stories tall, had to be evacuated in Daytona Beach Shores and New Smyrna Beach after building inspectors in Volusia County determined they were structurally unsafe."

At least 25 beachfront homes in a neighboring town were evacuated for the same reason, the AP reports. 

Anyone would expect some storm surge damage from a Category One Hurricane like Nicole. However, this damage is worse than you would think from any random Cat 1 storm in the past. 

One problem is climate change. Sea levels have risen, so Nicole's storm surges reached further inland and were powerful than we would have seen in a similar-sized storm decades ago. 

Earlier this autumn, Hurricane Ian, quite possibly strengthened in part by climate change, damaged sea walls along Florida's coasts, and there was little time to repair them before Nicole hit. That allowed Nicole to really do a number on many coastal properties.

Even further, Nicole started as a subtropical storm, which means it was a large storm that had a big fetch of east winds north of its center. That sent even more water smacking into places like Daytona Beach.  

By the way, Nicole hit pretty late in the season. It's possible - again - that climate change had a role in this. Water temperatures were above normal along the path of Nicole as it came through the Bahamas and toward Florida.

Hurricane love warm water. The hotter the water, the more hurricanes can thrive. Nicole probably wouldn't have been as strong as it was without the bath water conditions it encountered.

The remains of Nicole were over Georgia this morning, spreading heavy rain into the Southeast, and prompting a tornado watch in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.

NICOLE VERMONT UPDATE

It quickly became cloudy over Vermont this morning as Nicole's cloud shield raced northward up the East Coast. 

It looks like the remains of Nicole will give us two shots of pretty heavy rain, with a break overnight that will just contain lighter showers. 

The latest rainfall forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. Widespread one to two
amounts are forecast, with some areas even getting
a little more than that

A surge of tropical air will cause a lot of lift in the atmosphere in Vermont later this afternoon and evening. Rising air means precipitation. Since we'll have so much deep moisture in the air, the rain that moves in this afternoon will quickly become moderate to heavy. 

Then, what remains of Nicole's circulation will pull in a little bit of dry air, so the rain will turn lighter and showery later on tonight. 

But then there's that cold front from the west that Nicole is hooking up with. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that front will have a narrow line of torrential rains along it. And maybe a thunderstorm or two mixed in just for laughs and giggles.

It's possible there might be some gusty winds with some of these downpours, too, so it might be kind of an exciting Vermont daybreak.

That band of heavy rain will cross Vermont from west to east starting in the hours before dawn and ending by about noon when the cold front moves off into New Hampshire. 

It's still looking like most of us will see one to two inches of rain out of this, with the most maybe on the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Flooding risks aren't that high. But when that cold front with its torrential downpours comes through early Saturday, there could be some spots with street flooding, ponding on roads, erosion problems on steep driveways and the edges of gravel roads, that kind of thing. 

Yes, winter is still coming. Those Vermont ski areas will have plenty of water to work with when they fire up their snow making guns starting on Sunday and continuing through next week and beyond. 

Burlington, Vermont has not had its first snow flurry of the season yet.  That's nearly a month later than normal and the latest first flurry since November 16, 2007.

I'm pretty sure the city will see its first snowflakes of the season before the upcoming week is out. 

 

 

Nicole Slaps Florida, As Expected; Vermont Effects Not Too Bad?

Radar image of the eye of Hurricane Nicole in Vero Beach,
Florida last night. Residents in the eye could look up and
see the moon and stars. 

 The forecasts for now ex-hurricane Nicole were accurate: It slapped ashore near Vero Beach, Florida last night with top sustained winds of 75 mph.

Damage from storm surges was pretty extensive along Florida's east coast, with several reports of buildings falling into the water as beaches eroded under the onslaught of water and waves.

 Sea walls collapsed around Daytona Beach, and a condominium was evacuated for fears it might collapse, the Washington Post reported. 

Donald Trump's Mar A Lago was in the evacuation zone but Trump himself did not leave the estate. There are no reports of serious damage there.

Residents of Vero Beach had a clear view of Nicole's calm eye as it passed through. You could look up and see the moon and stars as the clear, calm air in the eye passed overhead. 

Nicole was only briefly at hurricane strength before it hit shore. As of early this morning, it was back down to a tropical storm with top winds of 60 mph.  Winds should further diminish, but flooding rains should continue in the Southeast, along with the risk of some tornadoes. 

As we noted all week, Nicole will get absorbed by a strong cold front coming in from the west.  It's still expected to send a slug of heavy rain into the Northeast, but there have been some changes.

The cold front is now moving a little more slowly than originally forecast.  The westward trend in the projected path Nicole's energy will continue. 

Since it's further west, strong southwest winds will develop high overhead, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  That will probably mean the Adirondacks will block some moisture from the Champlain Valley, and the Green Mountains could block some moisture from the Connecticut River Valley. 

It now appears that many spots in those valleys might receive only an inch of rain, or even a little less than that. The west slopes of the Greens could receive up to two inches.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington released
this map of expected rainfall from the remnants of 
Nicole. Less rainfall is anticipated than was highlighted
in earlier forecasts 

Overall, the threat of minor flooding from  what will be the ghost of Nicole is decreasing in Vermont. 

The heaviest rain now looks like it will be over central and western New York, and maybe the southern slopes of the White Mountains of New Hampshire. (Tropical moisture from the Atlantic will be forced upward by the White Mountains, causing the heavier rain).

The run-up and passage of Nicole's ghost is your last chance to enjoy warm weather for probably, a long, long time. 

It'll pop up into the 60s this afternoon, stay mild tonight and reach the 60s again tomorrow. Early Saturday will be mild, too.

Then, that's it.

We have a change in the weather pattern that has kept us warm since mid-October.

A big northward bulge in the jet stream is forming over and near Alaska.  That means repeatedly batches of cold air will sweep southward from Canada into most of the United States for quite awhile. Possibly through the end of the month. 

Despite the unprecedented record heat at the beginning of this November, the month as a whole could easily turn out colder than average. Imagine that!

No good weather in Vermont goes unpunished, right?   

Tropical Storm Nicole Is A Menace To Entire East Coast. Especially Florida

Satellite view of Subtropical Storm Nicole getting its act
together this morning east of Florida. 

UPDATE 5 P.M. TUESDAY

As anticipated what had been Subtropical Storm Nicole has transitioned to a pure tropical storm as it heads toward Florida.

A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a tropical storm which has a warm core and a regular storm, which doesn't

Now Nicole has a purely warm core and is now a true tropical storm. 

The National Hurricane Center says the storm's top winds have increased to 65 mph  It will probably be a hurricane force storm with top winds of 75 mph when it reaches the central Florida coast late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning.

It's still looking as if the remnants of Nicole will affect Vermont Friday and early Saturday.

You might see some forecast maps that take the remains of Nicole on a path through New England rather similar to the Irene flood disaster of 2011. (The main forecast map from the National Hurricane Center has the remnants of Nicole crossing southeastern Vermont and be at a position where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet at 1 p.m. Saturday. 

However,,and this is VERY important, Vermont will NOT going to see a disaster on the scale of Irene. Actually, we won't really have any kind of disaster. By the time it gets here, Nicole will have long since stopped being a tropical storm 

Forecasters still anticipate at least an inch of rain from this in Vermont, with a possibility of two or three inches. That's far less than what Irene dumped on us. Plus, it's quite a bit drier than it was before Irene. 

So, at this point anyway, it looks like main stem rivers might rise by several feet, but they will not go into flood. We are at risk for some local flash floods along a few small brooks and creeks, and poor drainage areas.  But it won't be widespread.

Instead, the remains of Nicole will probably turn out to be a lot like the previous soaking rain storms we've seen this autumn.  It'll mostly be beneficial, as it probably will likely further recharge ground water.  It won't be a winter of dried up wells. And ski areas will have plenty of water to make snow. That is, when it finally gets cold enough to make snow. Which will be soon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hang on to your hat, because the East Coast isn't done with active, or even dangerous weather quite yet. That's especially true in Florida.  

Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Sunday in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it seems like it wants to target Florida. As if the state didn't have enough problems from Hurricane Ian earlier this autumn. 

By the way, we in Vermont will probably see some effects from Nicole. More on that in a moment. 

Nicole is being called a subtropical storm because it has the characteristics of both a tropical storm, which has a warm center, and a regular storm that has some areas of cold upper air, and weather fronts. 

Since it formed Sunday, Nicole has been a hot mess but its starting to get its act together.  It's a sprawling, large storm, but it doesn't have a nice easily identified center. Even though it's currently kind of disorganized, it's definitely a danger.

That means there's a big fetch of east winds piling water toward the southeastern U.S. coast, especially Florida. Plus tides are already high because of the moon phase. This could really set up some storm surge flooding on the Florida east coast (Remember, the storm surge disaster from Hurricane Ian was on the opposite coast, along the Gulf of Mexico).

Moreover, Nicole is starting to take on more and more characteristic of a regular tropical storm. That transition looks as if it will help the storm strengthen as it slowly lumbers towards Florida. By early Thursday, when it's expected to make landfall on the central east coast of Florida, it could well be a hurricane.

If Nicole is a hurricane by the time it smacks into Florida, I believe it will be the first November hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Kate in 1985. 

The expected storm surge in Florida is three to five feet above high tide level.  That's not as bad as what happened with Ian, but it's still destructive.

Plus Ian did most of its destruction in one high tide cycle.  As east winds from Nicole continue to plow into Florida, storm surges will act up through several high tides today through Thursday.  Those many cycles will compound the damage from battering waves hitting repeatedly. 

Storm surge flooding is expected to cause problems up the coast at least as far as the Middle Atlantic States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

It's beginning to look like Nicole will affect us here in the Green Mountain State, at least indirectly. 

Nicole is expected to turn northward once in Florida, and then start moving up the East Coast in a weakened fashion. 

Meanwhile, an pretty impressive storm is expected to wind up in the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, producing the first major snowstorm of the season up in places like the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

That storm's cold front is expected to grab the remnants of Nicole and send it and its tropical moisture possibly up into New England Friday night. 

There's still some questions as to where the heaviest rain from this might come down, but there's potential of it in Vermont. If we get bullseyed by the heaviest rain, there could be some minor flooding. That's especially true in far northwestern Vermont, received one to two inches of rain in tropical downpours as the record heat wave ended late Sunday. 

Forecasters are keeping an eye on it, for sure.