Tropical Storm Nicole Is A Menace To Entire East Coast. Especially Florida

Satellite view of Subtropical Storm Nicole getting its act
together this morning east of Florida. 

UPDATE 5 P.M. TUESDAY

As anticipated what had been Subtropical Storm Nicole has transitioned to a pure tropical storm as it heads toward Florida.

A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a tropical storm which has a warm core and a regular storm, which doesn't

Now Nicole has a purely warm core and is now a true tropical storm. 

The National Hurricane Center says the storm's top winds have increased to 65 mph  It will probably be a hurricane force storm with top winds of 75 mph when it reaches the central Florida coast late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning.

It's still looking as if the remnants of Nicole will affect Vermont Friday and early Saturday.

You might see some forecast maps that take the remains of Nicole on a path through New England rather similar to the Irene flood disaster of 2011. (The main forecast map from the National Hurricane Center has the remnants of Nicole crossing southeastern Vermont and be at a position where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet at 1 p.m. Saturday. 

However,,and this is VERY important, Vermont will NOT going to see a disaster on the scale of Irene. Actually, we won't really have any kind of disaster. By the time it gets here, Nicole will have long since stopped being a tropical storm 

Forecasters still anticipate at least an inch of rain from this in Vermont, with a possibility of two or three inches. That's far less than what Irene dumped on us. Plus, it's quite a bit drier than it was before Irene. 

So, at this point anyway, it looks like main stem rivers might rise by several feet, but they will not go into flood. We are at risk for some local flash floods along a few small brooks and creeks, and poor drainage areas.  But it won't be widespread.

Instead, the remains of Nicole will probably turn out to be a lot like the previous soaking rain storms we've seen this autumn.  It'll mostly be beneficial, as it probably will likely further recharge ground water.  It won't be a winter of dried up wells. And ski areas will have plenty of water to make snow. That is, when it finally gets cold enough to make snow. Which will be soon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hang on to your hat, because the East Coast isn't done with active, or even dangerous weather quite yet. That's especially true in Florida.  

Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Sunday in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it seems like it wants to target Florida. As if the state didn't have enough problems from Hurricane Ian earlier this autumn. 

By the way, we in Vermont will probably see some effects from Nicole. More on that in a moment. 

Nicole is being called a subtropical storm because it has the characteristics of both a tropical storm, which has a warm center, and a regular storm that has some areas of cold upper air, and weather fronts. 

Since it formed Sunday, Nicole has been a hot mess but its starting to get its act together.  It's a sprawling, large storm, but it doesn't have a nice easily identified center. Even though it's currently kind of disorganized, it's definitely a danger.

That means there's a big fetch of east winds piling water toward the southeastern U.S. coast, especially Florida. Plus tides are already high because of the moon phase. This could really set up some storm surge flooding on the Florida east coast (Remember, the storm surge disaster from Hurricane Ian was on the opposite coast, along the Gulf of Mexico).

Moreover, Nicole is starting to take on more and more characteristic of a regular tropical storm. That transition looks as if it will help the storm strengthen as it slowly lumbers towards Florida. By early Thursday, when it's expected to make landfall on the central east coast of Florida, it could well be a hurricane.

If Nicole is a hurricane by the time it smacks into Florida, I believe it will be the first November hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Kate in 1985. 

The expected storm surge in Florida is three to five feet above high tide level.  That's not as bad as what happened with Ian, but it's still destructive.

Plus Ian did most of its destruction in one high tide cycle.  As east winds from Nicole continue to plow into Florida, storm surges will act up through several high tides today through Thursday.  Those many cycles will compound the damage from battering waves hitting repeatedly. 

Storm surge flooding is expected to cause problems up the coast at least as far as the Middle Atlantic States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

It's beginning to look like Nicole will affect us here in the Green Mountain State, at least indirectly. 

Nicole is expected to turn northward once in Florida, and then start moving up the East Coast in a weakened fashion. 

Meanwhile, an pretty impressive storm is expected to wind up in the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, producing the first major snowstorm of the season up in places like the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

That storm's cold front is expected to grab the remnants of Nicole and send it and its tropical moisture possibly up into New England Friday night. 

There's still some questions as to where the heaviest rain from this might come down, but there's potential of it in Vermont. If we get bullseyed by the heaviest rain, there could be some minor flooding. That's especially true in far northwestern Vermont, received one to two inches of rain in tropical downpours as the record heat wave ended late Sunday. 

Forecasters are keeping an eye on it, for sure.