Monday, November 7, 2022

Sunday Really Was Record Shattering, And The Strangest November Weather Day

On a strange, record breaking weather day Sunday, I 
spotted this cloud formation in a line of storms over
Lake Champlain. Looks like a funnel cloud, but I couldn't
discern whether is was spinning.
Could be scud, a rain shaft, or just a weird cloud. 
Well, that was strange. Really strange.

Sunday in Vermont brought record-shattering warmth, strong winds and some heavy convective downpours that just don't happen this time of year at all. Until they did Sunday. It was definitely among the most bizarre weather days I've experienced in my 60 years in Vermont. 

RECORD HIGHS

First, lets go through just some of the many high temperature records that were set.

Sunday was by a wide margin the hottest November day on record in Burlington. Which is saying something, since records go all the back to 1884.

The high temperature was 76 degrees, setting a new all-time record high for the month of November. The old record was 75 degrees on November 2, 1950 and November 6, 1948.

The low temperature in Burlington Sunday was 62 degrees.  That's the highest minimum temperature for any date in November. The old record was 60 degrees on two recent dates: November 11, 2020 and November 5, 2022 (yes, on Saturday).

A low temperature of 62 degrees is exactly normal for the height of summer in mid-July. 

Breaking monthly all time high temperatures seems to be a trend in Burlington.  There's 138 years of data, But just in the last 27 years of data, since 1995, nine of the 12 months have seen their all time high temperatures broken or tied.  

The last time a monthly low temperature was tied was when it hit 33 degrees in June, 1986. re were no all time low monthly temperatures set during that period.  

So, onto other Vermont records set Sunday.  Montpelier broke its record high for the date with 74 degrees, and set the record for the entire month for its highest minimum temperature which was 62 degrees. 

Extreme warmth and humidity by November standards
fired up some unseasonably strong lines of downpours
in northwestern Vermont Sunday. Here's one of the 
storms approaching South Burlington. 

Same story in St. Johnsbury. A record high of 74 was set, and the low temperature of 65 degrees was the highest for the entire month of November. 

The hot weather wasn't just limited to Vermont, of course. Many records, several for the entire month of November were set in the Northeast and adjacent southeastern Canada.

More than two dozen cities from Maine to North Carolina saw record highs both Saturday and Sunday.

Fredericton, New Brunswick reached 76 degrees for a new November record. Halifax, Nova Scotia reached 71 degrees, breaking the record high for the month of November which had just been set a day earlier. Montreal reached 74 for a new November record there, as well. 

STRANGE STORMS

I don't know whether they keep records on dew points, but Sunday was also probably the most humid November day on record.  The dew point is a measure of how humid the air feels, especially in the summer. That dew point got as high as 63 degrees in Burlington, which would have made it a moderately humid day in July.

With all that moisture in the air and an approaching cold front, bands of convective showers (essentially thunderstorms that had little or no lightning) repeated passed through northwestern Vermont in the afternoon and evening. 

This type of summer thunderstorm type set up is extremely rare for November. Especially Sunday's conditions, where several lines of storms formed. I counted five downpours in St. Albans, for a rainfall total of 2.1 inches, which is incredibly impressive. 

Milton reported 2.14 inches of rain. Georgia clocked in with 1.89 inches. 

The fact that the rain came in short, intense bursts was especially remarkable for this time of year. Rainfall rates in St. Albans were more than a half inch per hour. Luckily, each downpour was pretty brief, so we didn't get into any flooding.  

Along the southern edge of the deepest storms, Burlington managed 0.72 inches. All this is much more rain than was expected. But then again, it's hard to predict November weather when the temperatures are so far off the rails. 

Yet another line of downpours gathering steam Sunday evening
on approach to St. Albans, Vermont. Rainfall totals here
in Franklin County were as high as two inches 

Sunday's storms didn't qualify as severe, but they were strong.  Some had gusts to 40 mph or so, along with those torrential downpours.  It was hard to tell, but I also spotted what might have been a brief funnel cloud over Lake Champlain west of Burlington. It had the look of one, but the overall storm was not severe. One of life's mysteries, I guess. 

 The storms tended to fizzle as they encountered somewhat drier, more stable air along and east of the Green Mountains. Many places in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont had less than a tenth of an inch of rain. 

COOLER WEATHER STILL DUE

I think it's safe to say it won't be 76 degrees again until next spring.  Today will still be pretty nice for November, with lots of unseasonable sun and temperatures at least in the low 60s.  But those readings will tend to fall this afternoon.

Forecasters are still expecting a shock to the system type day on Tuesday with highs only in the 40s. Again, that's not far from normal, but normal feels weird after this past weekend.

We'll see another dramatic warmup late this week, but it won't be as torrid as it was this weekend. Still, the expected highs in the low 60s are fairly impressive for November. 

A pattern changing storm late in the week and early next week might pull up some moisture from Subtropical Storm Nicole, so we could see some heavy-ish rain toward Friday and early Saturday.

Then November arrives for real. Starting Sunday, we'll have a long period of near normal to colder than normal temperatures, possibly lasting most of the month.  

Despite the incredibly hot start to November, 2022,, there's a chance that the month overall could end up slightly cooler than normal. That is if the last half of the month turns out to be as cool as some forecasts indicate. 



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