Tornadoes To Slam South Today And A Stormy Vermont Wednesday

Last December, a powerful night time tornado slammed into
Mayfield, Kentucky, killing dozens and destroying most of
the town. There's a similar weather set up in Mississippi 
tonight, but we hope any tornadoes that do form 
avoid populated areas.

 The forecasted tornado outbreak in the South I talked about yesterday is still on for later today. Several factors make this dangerous weather scenario even more risky than many other severe storm events.  

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont the same system that will produce the tornadoes in the South today will give us a stormy Wednesday.  Obviously, it won't be anything nearly as dire as in the South, but still worth a notice. More on that in a moment

SOUTHERN STORMS 

The ingredients are still coming together for a severe storm outbreak in the lower Mississippi Valley later today and tonight.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is still warning of the risk of at least one or two strong, long lasting tornadoes in this mix.

The target area for storms and tornadoes today seems to be Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, western Alabama and southwestern Tennessee.

Northern Mississippi is really in the bullseye, and that geography makes this a potential deadly set up, if the storms get going as some forecasters fear.

This area of the nation has a lot of poverty and a lot of mobile homes, many of which are pretty substandard. Mobile homes are particularly mobile in high winds. They are dangerous to be in or near during tornadoes. Much more so than a well built conventional home, which offer some protection if people seek shelter in basements or interior closets. 

In the latest map from NOAA's Storm
Prediction Center, an area centered on 
Mississippi is the target zone for a possible
tornado outbreak later today. 

Since a lot of people there are low income, they might not have the media, the weather radar or much ability to receive tornado warnings.  Outdoor sirens are unreliable, as power failures can render them inoperable, or high winds can mask the sound of the sirens. 

Many of the tornadoes that might form later today would come after dark, making them harder to see.  If you receive a tornado warning, you shouldn't wait for a visual cue that one is coming before taking shelter. But human nature being what it is, our brains seem wired to look for danger signals.  

Night time, and the fact there are so many trees in the area blocking views, means people might not be aware of an approaching tornado until it is too late.

I also have to wonder about the storm chasers that seem to be swarming toward Mississippi today. I suppose they might get footage of tornadoes before dark. 

But after dark, the only way you might see or be able to film a tornado is during quick lightning strikes, or in power flashes as the tornado mows down electrical transformers.

With all those trees in the way either obscuring views or blocking escape routes if they fall on roads, and the expected fast forward motion of any potential tornadoes, it will be really easy for a storm chaser to get in serious trouble in and near Mississippi tonight. 

Just sayin' 

VERMONT EFFECTS

To be Captain Obvious here, nope, still no tornadoes expected from this in the Green Mountain State.

We're still in for a rather stormy day, though. Which I suppose is typical of this time of year.

The main time period for the nastiest weather in Vermont will be during the daylight hours and then into the early evening. 

Before the rains arrive in the afternoon,  southerly winds are forecast to really ramp up.  That's especially true in northern Vermont, where a wind advisory is in effect for the day Wednesday.

Gusts there could go over 50 mph.  This could bring down some branches and a few power lines, causing some outages here and there. Plus, if you've put your Christmas decorations out, I hope they are really well secured, because they could blow away as well.  

The storm is sucking a lot of warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico, which will help support those southern tornadoes. That same wet air will also send a slug of pretty heavy rain at us with the storm's cold front that will come through.

This might come in the form of downpours just ahead and along the cold front. Luckily, things are moving along quickly, so heavy rains won't last in any one place for all that long  The quick motion of the front means total rainfall should stay at or just under an inch in most places.

Which means there might be some quick street flooding, deep puddles, maybe a little erosion on steep hills, that's it. 

Unfortunately for winter enthusiasts, this will be another almost completely rain event.  Some snow showers will hit the mountains with light accumulation late Wednesday night and Thursday, but that's about it. 

After a quiet couple of days, a smaller storm is due Saturday. That, too, looks like it will be mostly rain.  Don't worry. December barely starts on Thursday. There's lots and lots and LOTS of time for decent snows to come into Vermont.