First Winter Weather Advisory Of The Season To Keep Vermonters On Their Toes Wednesday

A pretty decent first snowfall of the season is shaping
up in Vermont, with the broader valleys seeing one
to four inches and other areas three to seven inches. Map
is from the National Weather Service office in South 
Burlington. Click on it to enlarge and see it better.

 The winter weather advisories are flying for late tonight and Wednesday as the inevitable hits: The first real snow and ice of the season is coming to the Green Mountain State.  

Current forecasts call for one to four inches of snow in the broader, warmer valleys, with two to six inches in much of the rest of the state. Some of the ski areas are looking at six or more inches of snow. 

And in keeping with the usual crap we deal with in the winter, there could even be a bit of mixed precipitation thrown in.

One weaker storm will head into western New York and fade away early tomorrow morning while a coastal storm takes charge and moves up the coast.

The coastal storm won't be a blockbuster, but strong enough to pull some moisture in from the Atlantic Ocean, giving us a decent snowfall.

That first, dying storm in western New York might pull in enough warm air aloft to create some lovely sleet and freezing rain, mostly over the southern half of Vermont as it looks now. Most of that would come down in the morning. 

It won't be enough to break trees and power lines but it will make the roads that much icier.

Of course, scattered power outages might happen anyway. The snow is going to be rather wet and heavy, so that will pull some branches and wires down. Especially in places that receive at least four inches of snow. 

The heaviest snow will come down during the first half of Wednesday, so tomorrow morning's commute is going to be a mess. Especially since this is the first storm of the season. People aren't used to driving in snow. Plus, we'll have the usual idiots who will tell us since they have four wheel drive, they can go 90 mph down skating rink quality roads no problem.

Uh, right. 

I'm already predicting massive traffic backups on Interstate 89 because of this. Let's hope I'm wrong! I'm just thankful I have the opportunity to sit at home all day Wednesday and not go anywhere. 

Snowfall rates could be up to a half inch to an inch per hour, which is pretty heavy, notes the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Snow could easily mix with rain, especially in the Champlain Valley, since temperatures will be marginal. 

Of course, this raises the specter of a possible bust forecast. If more rain mixes in, total snowfall will be lower. If temperatures end up a bit cooler than forecast, then snowfall totals will be a little higher.

It won't be snowing nearly as hard by the time the evening commute rolls around, but the flakes will be still flying in many places, so be prepared for a dicey return trip home on Wednesday, too. 

Any snow we do get Wednesday will mostly stick around for awhile. Daily high temperatures through next Monday will range from below freezing to only a few degrees above the 32 degree mark. 

Some places will see more snow in the coming days, too. An epic lake effect snowstorm will develop downwind of Lake Ontario Thursday through Sunday.  They'll be measuring snow in feet out there, especially around New York's infamously snowy Tug Hill Plateau. The snow off Lake Ontario will be so intense that they're predicting thunder snow squalls out there.

Here's why we Vermonters should care about this; The lake effect snows will be so strong that they'll make it all the way through Vermont, though of course it weakened form.

We'll see snow showers, especially in southern Vermont Thursday and in northern and central Vermont Friday and Saturday. Accumulations probably won't be too much in the valleys, though some places could get a couple or even a few fluffy inches out of this. 

The northern and central Green Mountains often make out like a bandit in this type of lake effect scenario.  Could be some interesting times in Green Mountain ski country, especially from Sugarbush north to Jay Peak.