Ack! Measurable First Snowfall Of Season Now Forecast For Vermont This Week

Time to bring back the National Weather Service snowfall
prediction map!  The NWS in South Burlington is now
predicting an inch or two of snow in the Champlain 
Valley on Wednesday, two to six inches in much'
of the rest of Vermont, and more than six inches 
up in the mountains. This forecast will probably
shift some before the actual event.

 A few snow flurries late yesterday and overnight finally ended Burlington's long snow free streak.

The trace of snow in Burlington reported Sunday was the latest first flurry of the season since November 16, 2007. It was also the first flurry since April 28. 

Now, in a bit of a surprise shift in the forecast, it's beginning to appear that we will have our first significant snowfall of the season on Wednesday.

By "significant," I don't mean a blizzard with several feet of snow. But it's beginning to look like the warm Banana Belt of the Champlain Valley will see more than an inch of snow at least. Maybe two inches. 

Much of the rest of the Vermont has the potential for two to six inches of snow. The mountains could see six or more inches, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

This is a big shift from previous forecasts.  It's also not a guarantee yet. It's also possible the valleys will still remain warm enough to that there won't be much snow. But the forecast is trending whiter. 

It was thought that a weak storm would head well off the coast, so deeper moisture would miss us, leaving us with light precipitation. An even weaker storm to our west would keep the air just warm enough so that snow would be insignificant, and mixed with rain in the valleys. 

That idea has gone out the window. 

It looks like the coastal storm, while still not a huge nor'easter, will come close enough to give us enough moisture for a consistent period of precipitation on Wednesday.  And that day is looking a little colder than first thought. 

That's a recipe for snow. 

This idea of a small snowstorm Wednesday isn't cast in stone just yet. Just slightly warmer than expected temperatures or a slight shift in storm track can mean the difference between a few inches of snow and nothing. 

Even if the current forecast is 100 percent spot on, this won't be a blockbuster storm by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be the first one of the season. My experience - and probably yours - is that the first snow is especially chaotic in Vermont, even if it isn't a huge dump.

People "forgot" how to drive in the snow. Snow tires aren't on vehicles yet. Expect people to be nuts on the road Wednesday, so start now planning on giving yourself extra time if you have to go anywhere, or better yet, stay home if you can. 

It will stay cold, so any snow we do receive won't melt in a big hurry. 

By the way, that trace of snow in Burlington Sunday evening was almost a month later than average, as we can usually expect the first flurry of the season around October 15.

However, if Burlington receives an inch of snow on Wednesday, that'll be right about on schedule. Wednesday is the 16ths, and the average first inch of the season is on November 17.