Will Tropical Storm Ophelia Cause North Carolina Havoc And Mess With New England Weekend?

UPDATE 2 PM FRIDAY

Satellite view this morning of what is probably going
to become Tropical Storm Ophelia off the southeastern
United States coast. 

As expected and as I wrote about this morning, the mess of storm off the 

Southeast U.S. coast got better organized this morning and became a true tropical storm, instead of some weird hybrid.

As of 2 p.m. now-Tropical Storm Ophelia was centered about 150 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina and moving a little west of north. 

Top winds have increased since this morning to 60 mph.  It's still expected to come ashore in North Carolina probably early Saturday.

To become a hurricane, Ophelia would have to stay over open water for awhile.

That could happen, but it doesn't have a lot of time left before it comes ashore, so chances are it won't become quite a full fledged hurricane. 

But you ever know, 

Ophelia does look much better organized and much more like a tropical storm on satellite pictures than it was when the photo in this post was taken early this morning. Most of the systems thunderstorms are still to its north, but it now has a well-defined central, swirling core, like what you'd normally see with a tropical storm.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

That weird storm off the coast of Florida I mentioned yesterday is slowly developing into what forecasters think will turn into Tropical Storm Ophelia. 

Or maybe Phillippe if a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa can get its act together and turns into a tropical storm before the thing off the Southeast Coast manages to do the same. 

For now, we'll call the one we're worried about more Wannabe Ophelia. 

I've been calling it a weird storm because it started as a regular storm and is beginning to transition into one that is more of a tropical storm. For the record, during the transition, a storm like this is called a subtropical storm. 

A regular storm forms near the boundary of warm humid air to the south and cooler air to the north. This type of storm usually has a warm and a cold front, and doesn't have a nice circular shape like most tropical storms and hurricanes. 

That's how Wannabe Ophelia started. But now, strong thunderstorms are trying to get going, so far mostly north of the storm's center.  A tropical storm usually starts as a cluster of thunderstorms over warm water, which is what this thing is trying to do. It's also trying to become more independent from the warm and cold fronts near it. 

The thinking is the cold and warm fronts with the storm will eventually fade and this will become a subtropical or tropical storm. 

All of this technical and really won't matter to the  people who will be hit by the storm. Whatever you want to call Wannabe Ophelia, it was getting stronger this morning with top winds of 50 mph. 

More strengthening is possible as it moves north and it's forecast to hit eastern North Carolina by Saturday. The storm is already causing heavy rain and the risk of flooding in eastern North Carolina. 

It'll have all the characteristics of a strong tropical storm, with gusty, possibly damaging winds, flooding rains, and storm surges.  

THEN WHAT?

Once Wannabe Ophelia hits land, and if it's a tropical storm by then, it will start to transition back again to a regular, but very wet storm.  The question for us in Vermont is how far north will it get?

It's pretty safe to say Wannabe Ophelia will have enough oomph to cause some flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. After that, strong high pressure in Quebec will want to shove this thing east out to sea.

But will Wannabe Ophelia be able to push rain into Vermont before it gets shunted off and away from New England?

The computer models aren't sure. It's becoming more and more likely that it will rain in southern Vermont this weekend because of Wannabe Ophelia. Nobody is sure, though, how far north the rain will get. 

It could be a pleasant, dry weekend in northern Vermont, or it could be a cool, cloudy one with maybe some light rain.  Two very different options here. 

No matter what, it looks like a pretty safe bet that if Wannabe Ophelia does make it rain in Vermont, it won't be enough to renew any flooding worries. 

Tropical Storm Nicole Is A Menace To Entire East Coast. Especially Florida

Satellite view of Subtropical Storm Nicole getting its act
together this morning east of Florida. 

UPDATE 5 P.M. TUESDAY

As anticipated what had been Subtropical Storm Nicole has transitioned to a pure tropical storm as it heads toward Florida.

A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a tropical storm which has a warm core and a regular storm, which doesn't

Now Nicole has a purely warm core and is now a true tropical storm. 

The National Hurricane Center says the storm's top winds have increased to 65 mph  It will probably be a hurricane force storm with top winds of 75 mph when it reaches the central Florida coast late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning.

It's still looking as if the remnants of Nicole will affect Vermont Friday and early Saturday.

You might see some forecast maps that take the remains of Nicole on a path through New England rather similar to the Irene flood disaster of 2011. (The main forecast map from the National Hurricane Center has the remnants of Nicole crossing southeastern Vermont and be at a position where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet at 1 p.m. Saturday. 

However,,and this is VERY important, Vermont will NOT going to see a disaster on the scale of Irene. Actually, we won't really have any kind of disaster. By the time it gets here, Nicole will have long since stopped being a tropical storm 

Forecasters still anticipate at least an inch of rain from this in Vermont, with a possibility of two or three inches. That's far less than what Irene dumped on us. Plus, it's quite a bit drier than it was before Irene. 

So, at this point anyway, it looks like main stem rivers might rise by several feet, but they will not go into flood. We are at risk for some local flash floods along a few small brooks and creeks, and poor drainage areas.  But it won't be widespread.

Instead, the remains of Nicole will probably turn out to be a lot like the previous soaking rain storms we've seen this autumn.  It'll mostly be beneficial, as it probably will likely further recharge ground water.  It won't be a winter of dried up wells. And ski areas will have plenty of water to make snow. That is, when it finally gets cold enough to make snow. Which will be soon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hang on to your hat, because the East Coast isn't done with active, or even dangerous weather quite yet. That's especially true in Florida.  

Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Sunday in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it seems like it wants to target Florida. As if the state didn't have enough problems from Hurricane Ian earlier this autumn. 

By the way, we in Vermont will probably see some effects from Nicole. More on that in a moment. 

Nicole is being called a subtropical storm because it has the characteristics of both a tropical storm, which has a warm center, and a regular storm that has some areas of cold upper air, and weather fronts. 

Since it formed Sunday, Nicole has been a hot mess but its starting to get its act together.  It's a sprawling, large storm, but it doesn't have a nice easily identified center. Even though it's currently kind of disorganized, it's definitely a danger.

That means there's a big fetch of east winds piling water toward the southeastern U.S. coast, especially Florida. Plus tides are already high because of the moon phase. This could really set up some storm surge flooding on the Florida east coast (Remember, the storm surge disaster from Hurricane Ian was on the opposite coast, along the Gulf of Mexico).

Moreover, Nicole is starting to take on more and more characteristic of a regular tropical storm. That transition looks as if it will help the storm strengthen as it slowly lumbers towards Florida. By early Thursday, when it's expected to make landfall on the central east coast of Florida, it could well be a hurricane.

If Nicole is a hurricane by the time it smacks into Florida, I believe it will be the first November hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Kate in 1985. 

The expected storm surge in Florida is three to five feet above high tide level.  That's not as bad as what happened with Ian, but it's still destructive.

Plus Ian did most of its destruction in one high tide cycle.  As east winds from Nicole continue to plow into Florida, storm surges will act up through several high tides today through Thursday.  Those many cycles will compound the damage from battering waves hitting repeatedly. 

Storm surge flooding is expected to cause problems up the coast at least as far as the Middle Atlantic States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

It's beginning to look like Nicole will affect us here in the Green Mountain State, at least indirectly. 

Nicole is expected to turn northward once in Florida, and then start moving up the East Coast in a weakened fashion. 

Meanwhile, an pretty impressive storm is expected to wind up in the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, producing the first major snowstorm of the season up in places like the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

That storm's cold front is expected to grab the remnants of Nicole and send it and its tropical moisture possibly up into New England Friday night. 

There's still some questions as to where the heaviest rain from this might come down, but there's potential of it in Vermont. If we get bullseyed by the heaviest rain, there could be some minor flooding. That's especially true in far northwestern Vermont, received one to two inches of rain in tropical downpours as the record heat wave ended late Sunday. 

Forecasters are keeping an eye on it, for sure. 

 

Weird Geeky Weather: Record High Pressure And A Weird Subtropical Storm

World record setting high barometric pressures is
occurring in Mongolia. Above is a winter scene from that
nation's capital, Ulaanbaatar. 

 Weather geeks are geeking out over a possible world weather being set in Mongolia of all places.  

There, it appears the strongest high pressure system on record is freezing the region out. 

Reports are coming in of barometric pressure of 1093.5 mb or 32.29 inches, according to aviation meteorologist Michael Adcock

For comparison, on average, the barometric pressure is around 29.92  inches. Readings of 31 inches are extreme and quite rare. 

The extreme barometric readings in Mongolia will have to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization to become official. 

Strong high pressure systems are most likely in the northern hemisphere during the winter as cold, dense air builds up in Arctic regions.  Sometimes, these particularly cold systems head south, bringing frigid air to the mid-latitudes. This is when you're most likely to break high pressure records. 

For instance, some of the highest barometric readings here  in Vermont - a little over 31.10 inches  -occurred with an Arctic high pressure system in 1920 that brought temperatures in the region to the minus 20s and 30s. 

True to form, it's frigid in Mongolia.  This nation is normally bitterly cold in the winter anyway.  Normal low temperatures this time of year in the capital Ulaanbaatar are around -10.  Low temperatures in this likely record strongest high pressure there are in the minus 30s. 

By the way, in and of itself very high or very low barometric pressure is not dangerous to humans. Only the weather associated with these phenomenon.  Obviously the frigid weather in these Arctic high pressure systems is dangerous.

Very low pressure is associated with intense storms, which of course tend to be risky. 

RARE SUBTROPICAL STORM

A subtropical storm named Oquira has formed in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Uruguay, South America. This area doesn't usually have much in the way of tropical storms. 

Tropical and subtropical storms depend on warm ocean water to develop. The South Atlantic between South America and Africa tends to be relatively chilly due to ocean currents, so this type of storm is rare off the coast of South America.   

It doesn't look like much but this is a satellite view of
Subtropical Storm Oquira off the coast of 
Uraguay, South America.  Subtropical storms
are rare in this region. 

Also, there tends to be strong upper level winds in the area off of South America, which discourages tropical storms from forming. 

This is the third subtropical storm to form in the Atlantic off of South America this year, which set the record for the most such storms in the region in a single year. 

This of course, is in the same year in which a record was set for the most tropical storms in the Atlantic north of the equator.  (As we know, tropical storms and hurricanes are much more common in the Atlantic between North America and Africa).

Subtropical storms are hybrids between regular old storms which have colder cores relative to the atmosphere around them, and tropical storms, which have warm cores. 

This storm - Oquira- has no chance of developing into a hurricane.  Only one storm in the South Atlantic has been known to become a full-fledged hurricane. That was Hurricane Catarina in 2004, which caused a lot of damage in southern Brazil.