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| I won't be in Vermont for the big blow. This is the view out my plane window approaching JFK before dawn today. Remember what they say: Red sky in the morning, sailer take warning. That strip of red sky on the eastern horizon was one hint that the eastern United States, including Vermont, will have quite a rough weather Friday. |
I'll get to a detailed forecast in a sec, but there is also additional news as everybody in Vermont gets ready for this big tempest.
In anticipation of widespread power outages and plunging temperatures Friday night, Vermont Emergency Management says local shelters and warming centers are being set up. They said to check out vermont211.org for options if you need them.
Vermont Agency of Transportation announced Thursday that Amtrak is suspending service in Vermont on Friday. This is both the Vermonter and Ethan Allen Express. Apparently, Amtrak came to the sensible conclusion that they really don't want their trains smacking into trees that will have fallen across the tracks.
Green Mountain Power says they have an army of people ready to work on restoring power from the winds. But restoration might not necessarily be that fast. It will be hard to make repairs while the wind is still roaring due to flying debris and other falling trees and branches near work sites.
Charge your devices now, get bottled water ready, along with LED candles and headlamps if you have them. I wouldn't use regular flame candles. They're a fire hazard.
Another hint: If you have 5 gallon buckets or something like that, fill them with water now. You might not be able to properly flush your toilet without electricity because fresh water won't be pumped into the tank after the first flush.
You can use those five gallon buckets of water to accomplish this. Hey, as far as I'm concerned, working toilets are important.
Those of you have Christmas decorations outside, especially some that can get blown away easily, should consider taking them in this evening and putting them back out on Christmas Eve when the wind is starting to die down.
Flying debris of any kind can damage property in wind storms. Do you really want your Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer statue bashing in the vinyl siding on your neighbor's house?
Given the risk of debris on the roads from the wind, flooding, and the flash freeze coming later in the day, it's probably best to postpone travel plans until Saturday.
Saturday won't be great, as icy patches will linger and it will be quite windy and cold, but at least it won't be nearly as scary on the roads as Friday.
THE FORECAST DETAILS:
Slush and Mush:
A winter weather advisory is up for a good part of tonight for higher elevations of southern and central Vermont. Wet snow and mixed precipitation will dominate the start of the storm tonight. Valleys will have mostly rain, but some snow mixed in for a time.
Heavy wet snow of two to six inches will make things worse in some high elevations when the high winds arrive later on. Timing of this mix is overnight and the wee early morning hours of Friday.
Then The Wind
The wind, of course, will be the headline feature of this storm. The gusts will rapidly increase, especially after midnight. We were already starting to pick up a southeast breeze in Bennington and Rutland as of 4 p.m. You'll see that increase down there as the evening and overnight wears on.
The worst winds should come through from about 3 a.m. to about early afternoon, then slowly tapering off.
This is a high end event, possibly among the top five worst wind storms on record in Vermont. Forecasters are still worried that the downslope winds off the Green Mountains will extend well west of those mountains. This could prompt 70 mph or more gusts in places like Rutland, Middlebury, and possibly Burlington and St. Albans.
Not everybody in western Vermont will see such ferocious gusts. Those super powerful winds will be kind of localized. But pretty much everybody can expect gusts to 50 mph at the very least.
The worst hit areas will see wind gusts reaching or exceeding hurricane force. I still wouldn't be surprised to find the usual suspects - the places that usually see the strongest downslope winds - reach 90 mph.
Candidates for that kind of blow would be places like Wells, Mendon, Ripton, Hanksville, Huntington, Underhill and Cambridge.
We know there will be quite a few power outages and tree damage. I worry about trees in forested neighborhoods crashing onto or through homes. At the very least, I picture roofing shingles littering a lot of lawns and streets by afternoon.
The high wind warning covers all of Vermont except the southeast and Grand Isle County
Where winds are "lighter" they could still gust to 50 or even 60 mph, mainly east of the Greens. That's still enough to cause some tree and power line damage.
Note that after winds "subside" they'll still gust to 50 mph or even a little more in some areas into Friday night, well after the storm starts to depart.
Flooding
Periods of rain and melting snow in the morning, plus a burst of heavy rain ahead of and along the storm's cold front still puts us at risk for some mostly minor flooding. Street flooding, small creeks and probably the Mad River and Otter Creek still look like a fairly decent bet. Note that much of the flooding will take place while temperatures are crashing towards and below freezing later in the day.
Flash Freeze
That's still very much in play, too. As the powerful cold front moves through, rain will become heavier, and as temperatures plunge we might get a quick period of sleet, then perhaps a brief snow. In any event, all that water around will ice up quickly. If it snows a bit while temperatures are dipping below freezing, that will make things all the more dicey on the roads.
It's not certain, but there could even be a little thunder thrown in. The timing of this drop in temperature will be early afternoon to late afternoon depending on where you are.
Note that this weird cold front will move from southwest to northeast. There probably will be a weird moment in which normally mild Bennington already has their teeth chattering in the cold, while normally frost Newport up in the Northeast Kingdom is still enjoying balmy breezes. Or gales, whatever the case might be.
After That
It will be a cold and blustery Christmas weekend, but not as bad as further west in the nation. The Arctic air has been plunging south, toward Texas and the Gulf Coast. It will have to turn the corner and move toward the northeast to reach us. (Remember that cold front Friday that will move from southwest to northeast).
The detour the cold air will make will give it a chance to modify, to warm up. Yeah, it'll still be cold, with highs in the teens to around 20 Christmas Eve and barely around the low 20s on Christmas Day. Nights will get into the single numbers and teens, and wind chills will be below zero.
But that's really not a big deal for winter-hardy Vermonters, unless the power is out at your house. And this expected weekend weather isn't nearly as bad as the teens, 20s 30s and even low 40s below zero readings found today and tomorrow in the eastern Rockies and northern Plains.
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