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| The National Weather Service forecast map through 1 p.m. Saturday is still not much changed since this morning, but shows impressive 24 inch-plus totals in the southern Green Mountains. |
The thinking with the forecast really hasn't changed much since this morning, which kind of increases confidence with this storm.
Even the American computer forecasting model, which had been insisting for days that the nor'easter would shear out to sea before reaching us, has mostly changed its mind and now thinks the storm will hug the New England coast.
If you want a decent snowstorm in Vermont, most of the time you want it to track somewhere between Cape Cod and Boston, and that's pretty much the expected track.
Despite all this confidence in a snowstorm, we could still see a few factors to screw it up. At least for some of us. The biggest worry is warm air, which I'll get into as I break this whole scenario down.
Forecasters still have the storm coming in waves, at least for most of us. The Green Mountains, though, probably won't get any breaks of note. It'll snow up there pretty much all the time from late tonight to at least Saturday afternoon. It's a long lasting storm.
FRIDAY MORNING
The first wave of snow is still expected to come through tomorrow morning. It'll hit mostly in the predawn hours in southern Vermont, but at or a little after dawn further north. Snow will come down at a rate of an inch or two an hour, which is too fast for the snow plows to really keep up, no matter how good they are at clearing roads.
Across northern Vermont, especially the more populated Champlain Valley, the morning commute at this point looks like it will be a disaster.
That is, unless most people just stay home. That would be a great scenario. I already see quite a few school closings in Vermont as of late Thursday afternoon, and that list will surely grow. A lot. That's a good thing. It keeps a lot of people off the road. And the kiddos can just go out and play in the snow. Or shovel your driveway. Depends on how big a slave driver you are.
FRIDAY MIDDAY
After that wave passes, winds a few thousand feet overhead will be screaming in from the east. That will pump boatloads of Atlantic moisture into northern New England. That moisture will slam into the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, so chances are it could snow really, really hard all day up there.
West of the Green Mountains, the mountains will block the moisture so snow will taper off, or change to sprinkles, drizzle and mist in the valleys as temperatures sneak a bit above freezing.
Here's where I want to insert my not totally scientific skepticism. I'm the kind of person whose head is in the clouds. I'm a life long weather geek and since childhood, I've looked at the clouds to read the tea leaves, and see hints of what the kinds of weather is coming.
This afternoon, the clouds to me did not really scream "snowstorm." I have to wonder if it will be a little warmer tomorrow that forecast. If that happens the big burst of snow in the morning might not be as intense, and the mini thaw in the late morning and afternoon might be a little warmer than current forecasts suggest.
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| Clouds increase Thursday afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont as an expected winter storm approaches New England. |
Given that the water temperature off the coast of New England is warmer than normal, that lends credence to the idea of warmer.
Still, heavy precipitation cools the air, and there's a bit of a feed of chilly air from high pressure in eastern Canada. I wouldn't necessarily take my skepticism to heart. Just put in the back of your mind as a possibility.
I think the mountains with this storm are safe, and they should see pretty much all snow. It's the valleys I have questions about.
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
As the storm continues to evolve, this will be the chance for places cheated out of snow earlier Friday afternoon to make up at least some of the difference.
That easterly flow from the afternoon will start to take on a more northerly component. That would end the moisture block that would be affecting western Vermont in the early afternoon.
It's really hard to forecast where a band of heavy snow sets up on the northwest flank of a storm. So, the heaviest snow could be in northwestern Vermont, northeastern Vermont, or not in the Green Mountain state at all. It will be interesting to see how this sets up.
If the forecast holds, snow would redevelop and come down at a pretty good clip across northern Vermont, including the Champlain Valley. This would be an issue for the evening commute. Roads will have been cleared and just wet up until mid-afternoon.
As the new snow develops, the water would freeze and snow would accumulate on top of it. If you made it to work Friday morning, the trip home could well be just as tricky.
By the way, in low and perhaps mid elevations at least, the snow that would have started early Friday morning will be wet, which carries the risk of power failures. If the late afternoon snow redevelops as planned, a new wave of outages could set in.
It's going to stay warm Friday night, with temperatures not far from 32 degrees in the valleys, so this could be a mess.
This new burst of snow, if it happens will contribute several more inches to the total.
SATURDAY
The morning will be snowy for most of us, but the intensity in the valleys will probably gradually calm down. In the valleys, it will still be warm, near 32, so additional snow could add to power outages.]
In the northern Green Mountains, snow looks like it wants to continue into Sunday.
BOTTOM LINE
Most valley locations in Vermont can still expect a midsize storm of 5 to 11 inches. I still expect it to be heart attack snow. Great for making snowballs and snowmen. Really bad (or fatal!) for people who insist on shoveling despite being out of shape and/or having a heart condition.
I still see a big bust potential, so don't be surprised if some places get much more, or much less snow than this forecast.
Through Saturday morning, the Green Mountains of southern Vermont could easily see two feet of snow out of this dynamic, long lasting storm. I won't exactly have a heart attack of surprise if one or two places down there come up with 30 inches. This could be a real biggie for the mountains and ski areas
In the northern Green Mountains, the official National Weather Service forecast map only goes to 1 p.m. Saturday and gives those mountains a good foot of snow. But I think some of that snow will be heavier on Friday and early Saturday, then continue into Sunday. Some places in the central and northern Green Mountains could easily see two feet of snow.
I have to give you my usual excuse, too. This is a dynamic, unpredictable storm. Expect surprises. Some places will get more snow than forecast. Others will get cheated. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
As I think I mentioned the other day, New England meteorologists are probably drinking heavily while off shift. There's so many things that could still go wrong with the forecast.
By the way, the weather pattern looks both colder than average and snowier than average through Christmas Day. I'd say we have a lock on having a white Christmas this year.
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