Even Today's Vermont Snow Forecast Is Tricky, Never Mind Rest Of The Month

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
released this snowfall forecast map for later today.
Decent snows seem likely southwest of Vermont, but
the Green Mountain State looks like it will get a
dusting to two inches. We'll see how it plays out! 

As I've said in previous posts, it's especially hard to predict the weather this month. Even today's forecast is pretty tricky. 

Snow is moving toward Vermont this morning, but how much of it will actually get here? 

Current forecasts have most of Vermont barely squeezing out an inch or two, with even less than that north and east of Interstate 89. A few places in southwestern Vermont could squeeze out two inches of snow this evening. 

That said, this is a tiny bit more than previously forecast, and during periods of steadier snow this evening, even this little bit of snow will be enough to slicken up the roads. 

Be careful if you have to drive. At least the thin snow cover most of us will receive will brighten up the landscape a bit and give things a more holiday season feel. 

You'll see on radar that the snow coming in from the southwest will look like it will dump more than forecast. A good slug of snow wants to come in today but will run out of gas in route. Areas south and west of Albany, New York can expect three to six inches of snow out of this storm system. Same might be true in southwestern New England, like in parts of Connecticut. 

There's been so much frost in St. Albans, Vermont this 
week that it looks like there's a dusting of snow on the
ground. There isn't yet. That's just lots of frost.

But the moisture is encountering dry air as it gets here, so the initial snow will evaporate on the way down from the clouds. 

Then, as the system from the west comes closer, a new storm will form off the coast, stealing the moisture from that weaker system in New York. 

Dry air will flood back into Vermont on the north winds created by the coastal system. That'll shut off the snow pretty quickly tonight. 

The wild card is how much the dry air will evaporate the snow.  And how strong that push of snow is that's coming at us from the southwest.  

Interestingly, those predicted snowfall amounts southwest of Albany and in and around Connecticut have pretty drastically increased in the past few days.

Will the snow later today over-perform in Vermont? It's possible, but don't count on it. 

LATER WEEK

If meteorologists think today's forecast is tricky, they're really at a loss for a potential storm late in the week. There's still no consistency as to whether it will come close enough to give us a snowstorm, a mix, or pretty much nothing at all. 

We do know a storm will be crossing the nation, causing all kinds of weather problems on the way. We just don't know the path it will take once it gets near the East Coast. 

At least we have a good handle on what will happen between Monday and Thursday. It'll just be rather cold, and pretty quiet.