Strange Light In The Sky, Still Big Vermont Questions Regarding Two (Or More) Upcoming Storms

End of the day Tuesday in St. Albans, Vermont, which
featured a strange light in the sky, known as the sun,
and blue skies for a change. Back to the clouds today,
and still questions about Sunday storm

 I'll start this morning by explaining a couple strange things people saw in the skies over Vermont on Tuesday. 

That bright light in the sky was the sun. It's been so long since people have seen it that most of us forgot what it was.  It's harmless, and sustains life on the planet, so it was nothing to worry about.

People also noticed the sky was an odd color - a lovely shade of blue. That happens when the grey clouds finally disappear.

 The sun scatters light in the atmosphere and we see blue. Again, another harmless thing we just all forgot about since it's been so long.

It's back a gray overcast for most of us this morning, but it's fairly mild. We're about to get into a more active, stormier pattern, but how that plays out is still questionable. 

The first pieces of weather action over the next few days will be pretty minor.  A rather sharp cold front should come through tomorrow. It will pack some snow showers with it, and a few of those might be briefly on the heavy side. 

They'll be fast movers and won't last long, but could be enough to make the roads a little tricky tomorrow morning. Especially north and mountains. '

Temperatures behind the front should fall in the afternoon after peaking in the morning or around noon north, and early afternoon south. 

After that, it'll stay seasonably chilly into the weekend. Which brings us to Sunday's maybe storm

SUNDAY SNOW?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington posted
this excellent illustration to their Facebook page
showing why we should take forecasts for 
storms more than three days away 
with a big grain of salt. 

I'm not surprised by this, but we still don't know whether a storm in the eastern United States this weekend will bring a Sunday snowfall to Vermont. 

We're still four days away from the event, or non-event, whatever the case may be. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington posted on their Facebook page an excellent illustration of how far off forecasts can be more than three days out.     

The illustration, which I'm also showing in this post, notes that the forecast error for the position of a storm three days in advance averages out to 150 miles. 

More than three days and the error gets ridiculous, which is why I keep using words and phrases like "might", "maybe" and "we don't know. "

For snow lovers, at least we haven't written off this storm yet, so there's hope. 

For what it's worth, the National Weather Service in South Burlington  notes this morning's Canadian computer models put Vermont in the sweet spot for snow on Sunday. But the American and European models largely keep us out of the snow zone, except for maybe southern Vermont. 

Again, it's a tossup. More on this toward the end of the week. 

OTHER STORMS

Whatever happens with Sunday's storm, it will mark the start of an active weather pattern. A lot of the computer models depict some sort of large storm in the middle or eastern part of the nation next Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

It's possible we could see strong winds, rain, snow, mixed precipitation or all of the above during the middle of next week, but of course we have no idea yet what will come out of it. Stay tuned. 

Long range models  - again, grain of salt time here -  have other storms marching across America into the third week of January and beyond.  Those storms might keep us here in Vermont on our toes.

After 2023, we in Vermont could stand some boring weather, quite frankly. I don't know if that's in the cards, though. 

Even Today's Vermont Snow Forecast Is Tricky, Never Mind Rest Of The Month

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
released this snowfall forecast map for later today.
Decent snows seem likely southwest of Vermont, but
the Green Mountain State looks like it will get a
dusting to two inches. We'll see how it plays out! 

As I've said in previous posts, it's especially hard to predict the weather this month. Even today's forecast is pretty tricky. 

Snow is moving toward Vermont this morning, but how much of it will actually get here? 

Current forecasts have most of Vermont barely squeezing out an inch or two, with even less than that north and east of Interstate 89. A few places in southwestern Vermont could squeeze out two inches of snow this evening. 

That said, this is a tiny bit more than previously forecast, and during periods of steadier snow this evening, even this little bit of snow will be enough to slicken up the roads. 

Be careful if you have to drive. At least the thin snow cover most of us will receive will brighten up the landscape a bit and give things a more holiday season feel. 

You'll see on radar that the snow coming in from the southwest will look like it will dump more than forecast. A good slug of snow wants to come in today but will run out of gas in route. Areas south and west of Albany, New York can expect three to six inches of snow out of this storm system. Same might be true in southwestern New England, like in parts of Connecticut. 

There's been so much frost in St. Albans, Vermont this 
week that it looks like there's a dusting of snow on the
ground. There isn't yet. That's just lots of frost.

But the moisture is encountering dry air as it gets here, so the initial snow will evaporate on the way down from the clouds. 

Then, as the system from the west comes closer, a new storm will form off the coast, stealing the moisture from that weaker system in New York. 

Dry air will flood back into Vermont on the north winds created by the coastal system. That'll shut off the snow pretty quickly tonight. 

The wild card is how much the dry air will evaporate the snow.  And how strong that push of snow is that's coming at us from the southwest.  

Interestingly, those predicted snowfall amounts southwest of Albany and in and around Connecticut have pretty drastically increased in the past few days.

Will the snow later today over-perform in Vermont? It's possible, but don't count on it. 

LATER WEEK

If meteorologists think today's forecast is tricky, they're really at a loss for a potential storm late in the week. There's still no consistency as to whether it will come close enough to give us a snowstorm, a mix, or pretty much nothing at all. 

We do know a storm will be crossing the nation, causing all kinds of weather problems on the way. We just don't know the path it will take once it gets near the East Coast. 

At least we have a good handle on what will happen between Monday and Thursday. It'll just be rather cold, and pretty quiet. 

 

Maybe, Only A Maybe, At Vermont Getting A Crack At A Decent Snowfall - Large Messy Storm For U.S.

This is just one of many, many simulations of what might
happen later this week, but this illustrates the huge
area the potential winter storm covers. Here, it shows
show extending fro New Mexico through northern New
England and into Canada. Ice goes fro central Texas
to at least Ohio. Heavy rain is south of that.

A large chunk of the United States - most of the real estate east of the Rockies in fact, is in for a week of stormy weather.  

Different places will enjoy different types of icky or even dangerous weather at different times this week as the storm progresses. This will cover a really big area for a single winter storm. 

But, beginning today, we'll see a progression of snow, rain, ice and even fires as we go through the week.

Vermont's turn comes late Wednesday into Friday, but the only certainty in the forecast for the Green Mountain State is there won't be any wildfires or forest fires. More on Vermont's fate in a bit.

First, let's look at what's going on elsewhere and set things up.

The weirdest part of all this today takes place in Nebraska and South Dakota.  Ahead of a cold front that will play a critical role in this storm, warm dry winds will blow over the two states. They've had an odd lack of snow cover out there, so it's actually quite dry.

Despite it being the dead of winter in the northern and central Plains the dry, warm winds have that region in a high rangeland fire risk today.  I've seen this sort of thing in the southern Plains in the winter, but not this far north. Very, very strange.

By tomorrow, the cold front will extend roughly from Michigan to Texas. By then, the front will start to pick up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as Arctic air plunges south into Texas.

The increasing moisture will go up and over the cold air, squeezing out a bunch of snow and ice. Winter storm watches already extend from Colorado and Kansas into Michigan.

The cold front will slowly move eastward, then kind of temporarily stall along the Appalachian Mountains by Thursday. Waves of low pressure will move northeastward along the front as it ever so slowly presses toward the southeast later Thursday and Friday.

This will ensure a long band of heavy snow and ice and rain from the Gulf Coast all the way up through New England and into southeastern Canada.  Large swaths of the nation will see rather heavy snow and areas of freezing rain also slowly press east. 

Out ahead of the front, warmer air and rain could create pockets of flooding in the Tennessee Valley.  And if the front stays hung up in northern or central New England, parts of the region closer to the coast that had the blizzard Saturday could be dealing with some flooding, too.

VERMONT IMPACT UPDATE

What happens to us with this system is still depending upon where the cold front slows down or stalls. 

If current projections are wrong on the position of the front by as little as 50 miles, what I'm about to outline goes out the window. It would be wrong. So stay tuned for changes.

Vermont will squeeze out one thawing afternoon Wednesday ahead of the cold front. A thaw has been a precious rarity through January, so this will be a switch. Don't get used to it though. It won't last.

The front is now expected to stall in central New England which would set most of Vermont up for snow Thursday and Thursday night, with a greater chance of a mix or rain in the southern half of the state.

Since there's so much moisture to work with, whatever falls could be on the heavy side. That means parts of Vermont could get a lot of snow. We're just not sure which parts yet. 

The snow or rain will start in lightly Wednesday night and early Thursday before changing to snow during the day from north to south and becoming heavier. At this point it looks like it would be a wet, sticky snow, then turn powdery later on in the event. 

This would be an ugly scenario on the roads. The wet pavement would freeze, then wet snow will compact into a thick layer of ice and freeze even harder as temperatures drop. Then snow would pile up on top of all that. A real mess.

So this storm bears watching.  

I almost guarantee the storm won't play out exactly as I described above. It could be colder, and there could be less snow if the front positions itself further south.  Or there could be more rain or freezing rain if things set up a little further north than people are expecting now.

For what it's worth, the American computer model, which has been more accurate than the European model, has pushed some hints that northern Vermont might largely miss out on precipitation again.  That's just one model run, though, so definitely don't hang your hat on that. 

The bottom line is to expect a mess Thursday and Friday, but I can't detail yet what kind of mess it will be.