Friday Morning Vermont Storm Update: Wind/Snow Warnings And Advisories In Place For New Nasty Storm

The National Weather Service web site home page was 
even more colorful this morning than it was before
the last storm, which means there's a LOT of 
weather hazards going on coast to coast.

The table is now set for what I've been calling Big Storm #2, Vermont's second high wind and winter storm this week.  

It's not just Vermont, of course. This new, vast storm is creating a blizzard in the Midwest, severe weather and a tornado risk in the South and Southeast, and yet another round of flooding along the East Coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts.

Here in Vermont, the two storms are turning out to be very similar to each other. I'm calling the two storms twins, because they are so like each other. But like twins, each storm has its own personality. 

With this new storm,  some of the highest winds might hit slightly different areas than last time. This one also might have a little more snow and a little less rain than the last one. The timing of when both storms ultimately hit is similar, but the one starting tonight arrives just a few hours later than the last. The new storm also departs a tiny bit later than the previous one. 

And the aftermath of the storm will be pretty different from the last one. 

WINDS

A high wind warning is now in effect for Bennington, Addison, Rutland, Lamoille and Orleans Counties. And along the western slopes of the Green Mountains in eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties. 

Winds could easily go as high as 65 mph or more in some of these locations, which sets the stage for more tree and power line damage. As of 6 a.m. today, more than 2,000 customers were still without power from the last storm. No rest for the weary, I guess.

Power outages will start increasing late this evening, 

People in St. Albans, Vermont this past Wednesday
cleaning up after the big wind storm. More cleanup
is likely Saturday as Big Windstorm #2 looms.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the wind with this one will be out of the east to southeast instead of south or southeast like the last one. 

Easterly downslope winds put places like Rutland and Middlebury more in play for strong, damaging gusts. I do think Rutland might have a harder time with this storm than the last one. 

The easterly component might give places near Lake Champlain a bit of a break from the wind, but no guarantees there. 

Outside the high wind warning zone, there's a wind advisory up for all of Vermont except the southeast corner. Winds could gust to the 50 to 55 mph range in the advisory zones. 

Any time you get gusts to 50 mph or more you're going to have a few problem with trees and power lines. In northwestern Vermont, remember, there's still a lot of damage left from the last storm. That makes this area more prone to damage due to trees weakened from the last storm and power lines that have been hastily repaired, with the work not quite finished.

Peak winds with this storm should hit between 3 and 8 a.m. Saturday, says the National Weather Service.

SNOW

As noted, this storm will have a little more snow and mixed precipitation and less rain than the last one. 

Once again, the heaviest snow will be along the Green Mountains and south and east facing slopes. A winter weather advisory is up for up to six inches of snow in these areas.

The snow will come in later in the evening than it did Tuesday, so it won't affect anybody trying to drive home from work at say, 6 p.m. tonight.  Most of the snow action comes after 8 p.m. 

It'll once again be a fairly heavy, wet snow. Combined with the winds, this is a recipe for additional power failures. 

Travel late tonight and Saturday morning will be a pain and probably a bad idea due to slick roads, along with trees, branches and wires down on some roads, 

The Champlain Valley should see maybe one to three inches of snow before a changeover to rain early Saturday. Again, not much rain, so no flooding. 

POST-STORM

After the worst is over, winds will go into a lull in the late morning to maybe early afternoon Saturday. Then they'll pick up out of the southwest and get a little gusty.  I don't see the gusts going any higher than 35 mph later in the day. But that's still maybe strong enough to interfere with power line repairs a bit.

Rain and snow showers will linger through the day Saturday, but none will be heavy. Temperatures will peak near 40 degrees in the early afternoon, then slowly fall through the 30s. 

We'll probably start to pick up very light dustings of snow Saturday night and Sunday, especially in the mountains as temperatures keep cooling. 

Winter finally hits after this storm, as I don't see any thawing temperatures for more than a week  after it gets under 32 degrees Saturday evening. 

We still have a shot at another storm Tuesday or Wednesday, but that's really iffy at this point. Some computer  models give Vermont a fairly decent snowfall, others give us pretty much nothing. Stay tuned!

Vermont Storm Set To Hit Tonight, Cause Havoc Into Saturday

I won't be in Vermont for the big blow. This is the view out
my plane window approaching JFK before dawn today. 
Remember what they say: Red sky in the morning,
sailer take warning. That strip of red sky on the 
eastern horizon was one hint that the eastern United
States, including Vermont, will have quite
a rough weather Friday.

As of Thursday evening, the forecast for a damaging and dangerous, big and multifaceted storm in Vermont is unchanged, so batten down the hatches. 

I'll get to a detailed forecast in a sec, but there is also additional news as everybody in Vermont gets ready for this big tempest.

In anticipation of widespread power outages and plunging temperatures Friday night, Vermont Emergency Management says local shelters and warming centers are being set up. They said to check out vermont211.org for options if you need them.  

Vermont Agency of Transportation announced Thursday that Amtrak is suspending service in Vermont on Friday. This is both the Vermonter and Ethan Allen Express. Apparently, Amtrak came to the sensible conclusion that they really don't want their trains smacking into trees that will have fallen across the tracks. 

Green Mountain Power says they have an army of people ready to work on restoring power from the winds. But restoration might not necessarily be that fast. It will be hard to make repairs while the wind is still roaring due to flying debris and other falling trees and branches near work sites.

Charge your devices now, get bottled water ready, along with LED candles and headlamps if you have them. I wouldn't use regular flame candles. They're a fire hazard.

Another hint: If you have 5 gallon buckets or something like that, fill them with water now. You might not be able to properly flush your toilet without electricity because fresh water won't be pumped into the tank after the first flush. 

You can use those five gallon buckets of water to accomplish this. Hey, as far as I'm concerned, working toilets are important.

Those of you have Christmas decorations outside, especially some that can get blown away easily, should consider taking them in this evening and putting them back out on Christmas Eve when the wind is starting to die down. 

Flying debris of any kind can damage property in wind storms. Do you really want your Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer statue bashing in the vinyl siding on your neighbor's house?

Given the risk of debris on the roads from the wind, flooding, and the flash freeze coming later in the day, it's probably best to postpone travel plans until Saturday.

Saturday won't be great, as icy patches will linger and it will be quite windy and cold, but at least it won't be nearly as scary on the roads as Friday.

THE FORECAST DETAILS:

Slush and Mush:

A winter weather advisory is up for a good part of tonight for higher elevations of southern and central Vermont. Wet snow and mixed precipitation will dominate the start of the storm tonight.  Valleys will have mostly rain, but some snow mixed in for a time.

Heavy wet snow of two to six inches will make things worse in some high elevations when the high winds arrive later on. Timing of this mix is overnight and the wee early morning hours of Friday.

Then The Wind

The wind, of course, will be the headline feature of this storm. The gusts will rapidly increase, especially after midnight. We were already starting to pick up a southeast breeze in Bennington and Rutland as of 4 p.m. You'll see that increase down there as the evening and overnight wears on.

The worst winds should come through from about 3 a.m. to about early afternoon, then slowly tapering off. 

This is a high end event, possibly among the top five worst wind storms on record in Vermont. Forecasters are still worried that the downslope winds off the Green Mountains will extend well west of those mountains. This could prompt 70 mph or more gusts in places like Rutland, Middlebury, and possibly Burlington and St. Albans.

Not everybody in western Vermont will see such ferocious gusts. Those super powerful winds  will be kind of localized. But pretty much everybody can expect gusts to 50 mph at the very least.

The worst hit areas will see wind gusts reaching or exceeding hurricane force. I still wouldn't be surprised to find the usual suspects - the places that usually see the strongest downslope winds - reach 90 mph.

Candidates for that kind of blow would be places like Wells, Mendon, Ripton, Hanksville, Huntington, Underhill and Cambridge.

We know there will be quite a few power outages and tree damage.  I worry about trees in forested neighborhoods crashing onto or through homes. At the very least, I picture roofing shingles littering a lot of lawns and streets by afternoon. 

The high wind warning covers all of Vermont except the southeast and Grand Isle County 

Where winds are "lighter" they could still gust to 50 or even 60 mph, mainly east of the Greens. That's still enough to cause some tree and power line damage.

Note that after winds "subside" they'll still gust to 50 mph or even a little more in some areas into Friday night, well after the storm starts to depart.

Flooding

Periods of rain and melting snow in the morning, plus a burst of heavy rain ahead of and along the storm's cold front still puts us at risk for some mostly minor flooding. Street flooding, small creeks and probably the Mad River and Otter Creek still look like a fairly decent bet.  Note that much of the flooding will take place while temperatures are crashing towards and below freezing later in the day.

Flash Freeze

That's still very much in play, too. As the powerful cold front moves through, rain will become heavier, and as temperatures plunge we might get a quick period of sleet, then perhaps a brief snow. In any event, all that water around will ice up quickly.  If it snows a bit while temperatures are dipping below freezing, that will make things all the more dicey on the roads. 

It's not certain, but there could even be a little thunder thrown in. The timing of this drop in temperature will be early afternoon to late afternoon depending on where you are.

Note that this weird cold front will move from southwest to northeast. There probably will be a weird moment in which normally mild Bennington already has their teeth chattering in the cold, while normally frost Newport up in the Northeast Kingdom is still enjoying balmy breezes. Or gales, whatever the case might be.

After That

It will be a cold and blustery Christmas weekend, but not as bad as further west in the nation. The Arctic air has been plunging south, toward Texas and the Gulf Coast.  It will have to turn the corner and move toward the northeast to reach us. (Remember that cold front Friday that will move from southwest to northeast).

The detour the cold air will make will give it a chance to modify, to warm up.  Yeah, it'll still be cold, with highs in the teens to around 20 Christmas Eve and barely around the low 20s on Christmas Day. Nights will get into the single numbers and teens, and wind chills will be below zero.

But that's really not a big deal for winter-hardy Vermonters, unless the power is out at your house. And this expected weekend weather isn't nearly as bad as the teens, 20s 30s and even low 40s below zero readings found today and tomorrow in the eastern Rockies and northern Plains.