November Gloom Has Descended On Vermont; Not Going Away Soon

Forecasters are watching a potential storm late in
the week. This map is one scenario for Thursday
morning showing a storm developing south of us.
At this point, anything could happen. It could stay
to our south, not develop much, or give us
our first bout of wintry weather of the season. 

Sorry, getting a late start today, but let's get into  it. 

Those gorgeous, sunny days that began November are long gone. It's been back to reality since Saturday and it's not going away anytime soon. 

November is the cloudiest month of the year, though December is about tied. So we have a lot of overcast skies to look forward to.

Meanwhile, there's still a TON of questions regarding the potential storm toward Friday. Some models have a total whiff for us, others give us a fair amount of snow and/or rain or something in between. More on that in a bit. 

After the Saturday rain failed to materialize, the next in a series of rapid-fire disturbances gave us a little rain last night. Burlington got a quarter inch. Most other areas got much  less, unfortunately. 

So, here's the forecast 

TODAY

Scattered showers will linger today under cloudy skies. Typical November. The National Weather Service says a few heavier showers might have some graupel, which is sort of sleety, half frozen snowy-ish pellets. 

Highs should be near normal -within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

The next in that spray of disturbances coming from the northwest will give us another gloomy day. Northern areas could receive another tenth to as much as a quarter inch of rain. Central and southern Vermont will only see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So, nothing substantial. But it's still too dry out there, so we'll take everything we can get

Highs should be in the 40s to around 50. Again, very typical for November.

As temperatures cool, a little snow should fall in the high elevations, but it shouldn't amount to much. 

WEDNESDAY

This will be the "nicest" day of the week. There will be no rain or snow to speak of, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. I suppose there could be some quick breaks of sun in the broader valleys, but it will be far from a blue sky day. 

Highs should again be in the 40s, to maybe 50 in the warmest valleys.  A north breeze will make it feel nippier. 

THURSDAY

It could be the calm before the storm. Or just a calm day before no storm We don't know yet. But in any event, we also don't expect any rain or snow. Highs again should be in the 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY

Here's the day where pretty much anything could happen. We just don't have enough information to tell. The forecasts will become better within a few days once we have better upper air sampling. 

Some models don't really get the storm's act together, and suppress the storm to its south.  So we just get another cloudy November day.

Other models get the storm's act together and flings it up the coast, spreading potentially heavy, wet snow our way, maybe mixed with a little rain. 

Or, we could just get the outer fringes of this thing, and we just get some snow or rain showers. Stay tuned on this one. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Oddly, the forecast for next weekend is a little easier than Friday's forecast. Whatever that storm does, it should be north and east of us by then. It will send cold north wind our way. That means more cloudy skies, chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers, and highs just in the 37 to 47 degree range.