November Global Temperatures Were 3rd Warmest On Record

November, 2025 was the world's third warmest on
record. As usual, it was hard to find the few
cooler than normal areas (in blue)

 Continuing a trend that started half a year ago, the world had its third warmest November on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

 This was the sixth month in a row that the world had a third warmest month, in each case just behind 2023 and 2024. 

The warmest places relative to normal were in the Arctic, most of the Northern Hemisphere land areas, eastern Antarctica, southern Africa and eastern Europe. 

As always in this age of climate change, November cool spots were hard to find. Those few relatively chilly areas included northeastern Russia, parts of the central an eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, bits and pieces of Australia, and a persistent cold blob south of Greenland. 

We do the following every month to show how entrenched climate change has become: If you under age 49 you have never seen a month that globally was even a tiny bit cooler than the 20th century average. 

Depending upon how the December figures come out, 2025 will either be the third hottest year on record, to it will tie with 2023 as second hottest. Last year was the globe's hottest since people starting keeping reliable records in the 1850. 

The warm November contributed to a year that's messing with a key climate goal the United Nations set nearly a decade ago. 

The UN in 2016 adopted a legally binding compact -- the Paris Agreement -- that aims to keep global temperatures no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 20th century agreement.

As Yale Climate Connections reports, it looks the warmth of this year will mean the three-year average temperature, 2023 -2025 will end up warmer 1.5 degree Celsius. 

Does that mean the Paris Agreement is violated? Depends on who you ask, because nobody really defined the parameter of what 1.5 degrees mean in the real world. But my opinion, yes. 

The World Meteorological Organization's 2024 State of the Global Climate Report states that they've convened a panel of experts to determine how exceeding the 1.5 degrees would be defined and tracked. 

We probably will have a few more years that average less than 1.5 degrees below the 20th century average, but they will become  increasingly rare.

Elsewhere, climatologists also like to keep an eye on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, as those are a key indicator of the planet's climate health. 

The news from the top and bottom of the world was not good. Arctic sea ice in November was the second lowest on record for this time of year. Once we got into December, Arctic sea ice ran neck and neck with 2016 as the least on record. 

Antarctica sea ice was the fourth lowest on record, at least since satellites started keeping track of it in 1978. Only 2016, 2023 and 2024 had less ice way down under. 

UNITED STATES

November in the Lower 48 of the United States was the fourth warmest on record. 

November in the Lower 48 of the U.S was the
fourth warmest on record States in darkest 
red had their warmest on record November. 

The warmth was especially strong in the western United States. Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and Utah had their hottest November on record. Utah shattered the record by more than a degree, which is a really impressive

New Mexico had its second warmest November. Colorado, Oklahoma and Wyoming each had their third warmest November. 

When the western part of the nation is warm, more often than not, the eastern part is cool. That was true in November, 2025. But the eastern chill was not nearly as extreme as the western balminess. 

The state-by-state rankings go back 131 years. The "coldest" state in the rankings, was New York, which had its 67th warmest, (or 64th coolest) November on record. Here in Vermont, we had our 62nd warmest November out of the past 131. So pretty much in the middle of the pack.  

The Lower 48 had its 26th driest November out of the past 131 years. Dry weather was well distributed around the nation, but the southeast corner of the U.S. was especially arid. South Carolina had its second driest November, and in Florida, it was third driest. 

Only three states - Arizona, California and South Dakota were noticeably wetter than average, but were not nearly soggy enough to threaten any records. 

Meteorological autumn- September 1 through November 30, was the third warmest on record in the Lower 48. This autumn, all states in the Lower 48 except the Carolinas were at least 1 degree warmer than the 20th century average. 

Seven states - Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah and Washington - had their warmest autumn on record.  Remarkably, everyone west of the Mississippi Rivet had one of their top 10 warmest autumn on record. All those states except California had one of their top five hottest falls. (California only had its tenth warmest. 

For the record, Vermont overall had its 23rd warmest autumn out of the past 131 years.  

November In Vermont Was Cold, Gloomy, But Historically, It Was Actually Kinda Average

A gloomy sky over St. Albans, Vermont on November 6.
The month was chilly by modern standards, but kind
of middle of the road by 20th century comparisons. 

 The final climate totals are in for the Vermont November, 2025 and it paints a chilly picture. But it was only chilly compared to recent years, not the pre-climate change 20th century average. 

The average temperature in Burlington for November was 37.3 degrees, or three degrees chillier than what is considered normal.

 Remember, this is the new, warmer normal, influenced by climate change. Had the same November weather occurred a generation or two ago, it wouldn't have been considered all that cold. 

Out of the past 134 years, this November was pretty much right in the middle of the pack in terms of temperatures. 

Seventy Novembers were as chillier or chillier than 2025 and 64 of them were warmer.  From a historical perspective, and from the perspective of your parents or grandparents, it was actually a pretty normal November. 

Other weather stations in Vermont were also about a degree or two colder than the average of the past 30 years, but more or less in line with historical averages. 

Precipitation was close to normal, too. Burlington had 2.87 inches of rain in November, just 0.17 inches above normal. That made it the 53rd wettest out of the past 134 years. Nothing extreme there. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rain and melted snow came out more or less average, trending slightly on wet side west, and a little drier east. 

Temperatures were strangely consistent in November. The month can feature almost summer like warmth near 70 in the early part of the month, and then hitting bitterly cols, wintry lows near the end. 

There are some wacky extremes in the history of November. In 1938 the highest temperature for the month in Burlington was 74 and the low as 3 below. In November, 1996, temperatures ranged from 74 to 9. As recently as 2022, we had a November with a high of 76, an all-time record for the month, with a low of 15 toward the end of that month. 

November, 2025 in Burlington ranged between 58 and 21. I've seen a few individual days with that kind of range, never mind a whole month.  Digging further, I've found that only six Novembers had a low as warm or warmer than 21 degrees. Usually, the low for the month is in the upper single numbers and teens. 

On the opposite end, only 25 Novembers, have had highs as cool or cooler than this year. Additionally, if you love statistical quirks, the lowest high temperature this month was 34 degrees. Only 11 Novembers had a "lowest high" that warm or warmer. 

Snowfall, by the way, was heavy, at least in the north. Burlington's snowfall was only 2.1 inches above normal, and St Johnsbury's was 2.9 inches on the heavy side. 

As the month closed, there was still a healthy 10 inches of snow on the ground in Westfield and eight inches in Montgomery. Most towns in Vermont had no snow cover or just a few inches. 

But the Green Mountains killed it in terms of snow, especially the central and northern mountains. 

Jay Peak reported an incredible 119 inches of snow during November, obviously their snowiest on record.  On a few days during November, Mount Mansfield set records for the deepest snow for the date. On the final day of the month, there was 40 inches on the ground near the top of Mount Mansfield, the second highest for the date.

LOOKING AHEAD

Incredibly, each of the past four years in Burlington were among the top ten warmest on record. It looks like 2025 might finally break that streak. 

If December temperatures this year come out around the "new normal" of 28.2 degrees, 2025 would  once again be in the top 10 list of warmest years. 

But early indications are this December has a better than even chance of being solidly on the cold side. No guarantees of course. Long range forecasts are notoriously tricky.  But we are entrenched in a shivery weather pattern that shows little sign of breaking. 

We have a decent chance of seeing the coldest December in a quarter century, but that would be nowhere near the coldest on record. That honor goes to December, 1989, that awful month that featured an average temperature of 7.5 degrees which was 20.7 degrees colder than our current "new normal." December, 1989 also featured 19 days in Burlington that got below zero.

I'm quite sure that December, 1989 cold record is safe, despite this year's chilly forecast. 

Warm Air Already Over-Performing In Some Spots In Vermont Enjoy, Won't Last Long

This month's snow caught us off guard before we put
deck furniture away. The warm ground allowed the 
snow to mostly melt (see background) but no warmth
beneath the deck allowed the snow to stay. We're hoping
warm weather today and tomorrow will melt the
deck snow so we can properly
store all the summer stuff. 

Sorry for the late start with the weather today, as I am a little under the weather. No worries though, just a bit of a high pressure system in my sinuses. I should be better in no time. 

So, it's warm out there for a change.  At least compared to what we've had to deal with. In some areas, it's even warmer than we thought it would be, which is a nice switch. 

The forecast high in Burlington today was 47 degrees. That would make today the hottest day since November 8. But the forecast is off a bit. That's because it was already 48 degrees as of 10 a.m. 

The milder air is really funneling up the Champlain Valley, which explains the toasty air there. In the rest of Vermont, it looks like temperatures will end up in the 40s this afternoon, close to the forecast highs. 

It's nice to see the last of the snow finally leaving my yard up in St. Albans after being there since November 10. 

Tonight will be balmy, too, at least by late November standards. I wouldn't exactly rush to put the air conditioners back on the windows. But still, a low of 40 degrees isn't bad for the time of year.  

The first wave of rain will come through tonight. Sorry, early season skiers!  It'll only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take, so nothing to worry about. 

Tomorrow will bring us the peak of the "heat wave" as readings will get up into the 50s in many places. A 60 degree reading in one of the warmest towns isn't out of the question, but don't hold your breath. 

Although a shower might come at any time Wednesday, we'll probably have a lull during the day. 

The warm air can't last forever, especially with the late autumn/early winter weather pattern we find ourselves in this year. 

The cold front will come through before dawn Thanksgiving, throwing another band of rain showers at us, then shutting off the warm air. Although the colder air will come in aloft quickly, it'll take time to make it down to where we live.

So Thanksgiving itself will be OK, with clouds, a little sun, some blustery winds and highs near 40 or so. 

The cold air will really come in Thanksgiving night and Friday. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will crank up big time.  So big that some of that snow should hit the central and northern Green Mountains for a time.  Even the valleys will get a little snow.  The ski areas, though should get a bit of recovery snow - maybe three to six inches. 

During Friday, the lake effect snows will shift southward, so the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little snow, too.

Saturday looks cold, too, but the snow showers should be drying up by then. 

The overall weather pattern heading well into December looks active and mostly cold. The next shot at snow and rain will come Sunday and Monday.  That storm might go a little to our west, which is why I'm thinking mixed precipitation on that one. 

We'll have more info once we get closer to that event, which I know you've seen me say a zillion times already. But it's true that forecasts more than a few days out can get a little questionable.  

Vermont Mountain Snow A Symptom Of A Nasty November

Route 105 in Jay, Vermont was once again a snow
globe this morning as heavy snows continued in
the central and northern Green Mountains. 

We know it snowed a lot in the Vermont mountains overnight and early today, but so far, we don't have much information as to how much snow fell.  

As of 9 a.m., the reports I've seen include eight inches of new snow in Johnson, six inches in Underhill and four inches in Montpelier. A little further away from the mountains, I have about a half inch of new snow here in St. Albans. 

Based on radar images from yesterday, the upslope snow in Vermont initially had trouble getting its act together Sunday afternoon. The snow seemed to arrange itself in streaks, so it was hit and miss. 

The upslope snow finally consolidated and did its thing overnight. I'm sure some of the northern Green Mountain summits are at least closing in on a foot of new snow. It was still cranking this morning. 

Traffic cameras hint at quite a bit of snow up high.  It remains to be seen whether any of the northern Green Mountain are getting the two feet of new snow that was in the forecast.

I see there was 28 inches of snow at the stake near the top of Mount Mansfield late Sunday afternoon.  Most of the new snow will have come overnight and this morning. 

It'll keep snowing all morning in the western slopes of the Green Mountains and only slowly diminish through the day today and tonight. Winter storm warnings are still up in the central and northern Greens. 

In the low elevations, today won't be a big deal. It won't be nice, but it will be cloudy, it will be windy, and it will be cold. Not a nice day, but what do you expect from mid-November?

If you're in the Champlain Valley, or the lower Connecticut Valley, it'll pretty much just be flurries today. The closer you get to the mountains, the harder it will snow, and the more likely the roads will be on the iffy side. 

NOT NICE NOVEMBER 

This morning was another gray, cold, windy one
here in St. Albans, Vermont. This has NOT been
a nice November at all. 

Today's unpleasant weather is another day in a Vermont November that has been particularly trying. 

To begin with, November is never a glorious weather month in Vermont. It's the cloudiest month of the year, or at least tied with December for that honor. It is seemingly always dark, windy and cold. 

That's what we're getting this month, only writ large. 

As measured in Burlington, today will be the ninth consecutive cooler than normal day. Sunday was the eighth consecutive day with measurable precipitation. 

Today will be 15th consecutive day in a row with at least a trace of rain or snow. Winds in Burlington have gusted over 30 mph in 10 of the first 16 days of the month. 

Plus, we're not used to this. In August through October, our big drought did have the benefit of giving us day after day of clear, warm, sunny weather. That was taken away from us big time once November hit. 

We've also gotten used to warm Novembers. With the glaring exception of 2019, most Novembers in recent years have been a bit like Octobers used to be back in the day. 

This November I guess is more traditional, if you want to call it that. 

OUTLOOK

The sort of good news is the weather will temporarily turn kind of boring for the rest of the week. It'll turn slightly warmer, but it won't exactly get toasty. Daily high temperatures later this week will be within a few degrees either side of 40.. 

The sun might actually come out at times tomorrow and Wednesday, especially in the broader valleys. That'll be a nice switch from what we've seen.

The next storm in the pipeline looks like it will arrive around Friday. That one won't be a huge one, and it will probably mostly come in the form of rain.  

Cold, Cloudy, Often Snowy Vermont November Revealing Some Quirks

Traffic cam image from yesterday afternoon shows
a lot of snow falling along Route 105 in Jay, Vermont.

If you think it's been a cold November in Vermont so far,  you're absolutely right. 

Through yesterday, the month is running 2.9 degrees cooler than normal, as measured in Burlington. 

Remember, that's the "new normal," based on the average of Novembers from 1990 to 2020. By then, climate change had really started taking hold. 

Average Novembers used to be colder than they are now. This month isn't coming anywhere near close to becoming among the chilliest on record. But we're surely noticing how wintry this month has been so far. 

Still, this chill is a departure from most recent Novembers, though 2019 was notably cold. On November 13 of that year, the temperature in Burlington fell to 9 degrees above zero, the coldest for so early in the season.

What's been notable this month so far are the comparatively warm nights. The coldest it's gotten in Burlington so far this month is 27 degrees. It usually gets at least that cold by Halloween. A spoiler, though: The forecast low in Burlington tonight is 24 degrees.

That's still not especially chilly for this time of year. 

SNOWY MOUNTAINS

It really, really snowed in the central and northern Green Mountains yesterday. I could tell something was happening up there from my perch here in St. Albans. It snowed all day here. Not hard, and it often mixed with rain, so our accumulation was just 0.2 inches. 

But just go a little higher in elevation than where I am at 650 or so feet, and things really started to pop with the snow. 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield by late yesterday afternoon was 22 inches. Since records started up there in 1954, only 1976 and 1990 had deeper snow at this date. 

I don't yet have any specific reports of snow accumulation from just yesterday, but I'm dying to find out how much Jay Peak got.

The early deep snow in the mountains doesn't necessarily mean we'll have a snowy winter. 

The winter of 1976-77 was a little snowier than average in Vermont, but had less snow than all the other winters in the particularly snowy 1970s winters.

The winter of 1990-91 in Burlington had just 42.5 inches of snow, far below the normal of 78 inches. 

FORECAST

The moist, cold northwest flow has dried up a little since yesterday, though we will see some scattered snow showers today. Again. Now that the snow has started, it doesn't seem to want to end. At least not everywhere. 

Most of whatever snow we get today will be in the mountains. 

However, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has flagged one interesting potential today. There might be a band of lake effect snow setting up off of Lake Champlain. It it happens, you might see it snowing it places like Charlotte, Ferrisburgh, Monkton and Hinesburg, that area. The snow band might jump all the way over the mountains to places around Rochester and Granville. 

Those places might get an inch of snow, maybe a tad more. 

When the Lake Champlain temperature is as warm as it is now, lake effect snows can drop a few inches of snow in the central and southern Champlain Valley. 

As mentioned, tonight could be the coldest night of the year so far, but that's not saying much. The reason: Skies might finally briefly, partially clear.  Clearer skies can mean colder nighttime temperatures. 

NWS South Burlington also says patchy freezing fog could develop toward morning. That'll leave a pretty frost on the trees, but can also create icy spots on roads. Especially on bridges and overpasses. Take care tomorrow morning if you're driving anywhere. 

Saturday 

Speaking of ice, we're still watching a storm due this weekend that threatens us with a nasty mix of snow, ice and rain. 

The timing of this storm has moved up a little, so now it will start to affect us tomorrow afternoon. It'll be cold enough so that it'll start as a nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. 

It still looks like it'll be warm enough in the Champlain Valley so that most of this will probably be a cold rain. But along and east of the Green Mountains, freezing rain looks like it will hang tough. It won't be enough to wreck the trees, but certainly enough to make the roads very, very iffy. 

Keep that in mind if you're driving anywhere Saturday night, especially outside the Champlain Valley. 

There's still some questions about how this storm will sugar out. It'll probably move eastward near the Canadian border Saturday night, while a new storm gets going on the Maine coast. 

The interaction and exact paths of these storms will determine how much rain, mix and snow we get. 

The storm might be another installment, albeit a small one for continued drought relief. Right now, the forecast calls for roughly a half inch of rain, and melted snow and melted ice. 

Sunday and Beyond

The storminess will start to pass by us on Sunday and strengthen as it moves slowly into the Canadian Maritimes. 

That means another spell of cold northwest winds, lots of clouds, and snow showers. Those snow showers will once again mostly hit the central and northern Green Mountains. There could be a few more inches up there. 

Monday will be particularly windy and cold, but the chilly air will stand strong most of the week. It does look like it might finally warm up a bit toward the end of next week. 

The overall weather pattern looks active, with frequent chances of precipitation probably through to the end of the month.  

Winter Comes To Vermont, Or At Least A Foretaste, In Very Active Weather Pattern

A blustery November day yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont with shafts of bright sun and dark clouds,
and a day long chilly, gusty wind. More
wind, cold rain and even snow is in the 
Vermont forecast for the next several days. 

Yesterday afternoon was actually a shade warmer than average, but it really didn't feel like it. 

Temperatures were within a few degrees of 50, and the sun was in and out, at least in the valleys. 

However, a blustery west wind made it feel much colder, especially when the sun went behind a cloud. Those clouds looked dark over the mountains. On the summits of the northern Green Mountains, those clouds were depositing snow showers. 

The sunny, mild first half of autumn is over. Winter is here, or more precisely, pre-winter.

It's that time of year when snow becomes almost a fixture in the forecast, even if the snow that does eventually come doesn't really affect the valleys all that much.   The gusty winds keep howling, the sky is usually gray. And much of the time, when it's not snowing, a cold rain is falling.

That's our fate here in northern New England for at least the next week, probably more as a fast-paced weather pattern keeps spraying us with storms. 

None of the storms will be especially strong. But they will all keep conditions such that it will not be pleasant outside. 

Let's do the details, as it's a very busy forecast:

TODAY

The next in a series of these storms was on our doorstep this morning. Clouds quickly covered the sky by the time the sun rose, and rain is coming. Snow, too. And wind. Especially wind. 

Light rain was on our doorstep as of 7:30 a.m. Some high elevations might start out with a few snowflakes before it goes over to rain.  This initial bit of rain is sort of a warm front, but it's not all that warm of a front. Highs today will stay in the 40s, with a few low 50s south. 

That band of light rain will probably won't last long in any one place come through. It won't rain all day where you are, but it will stay overcast and breezy and dank. Typical November.

Then the core of the storm, and its cold front arrives overnight. The story with this storm will be wind, especially in the few hours when and just after the cold front passes through. 

A wind advisory for gusts of up to 50 mph is in effect for Vermont along and south of Route 2. The highest gusts overnight will be mostly on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

In far southern Vermont, a more serious high wind warning is in effect for gusts as high as 60 mph. It looks like a blast of wind will move down New York's Mohawk Valley, then rush through central and southern New England. Areas along Route 9 from Bennington to Brattleboro look like they will be caught up in this.

Far northern Vermont won't escape the wind. But the expected gusts as high as 45 mph don't quite trigger a wind advisory. 

This storm won't be particularly wet, but anything helps due to the lingering drought. 

Rainfall will be light in the southern valleys with this one, maybe amounting to only a tenth of an inch there. Precipitation amounts will range up to about a half inch in the north. 

Precipitation will be heavier in the mountains, and some of it will come down as snow, especially at the summits. Rain and melted snow along the west slopes of the Green Mountains could range up to an inch. 

By mid-morning Thursday, that snow might accumulate to a slushy coating at elevations as low as 1,500 feet or so. The National Weather Service is going with one to four inches between 2,000 and 3,000 feet, and as much as four to eight inches at the summits of the northern Green Mountains. 

Mount Mansfield already had seven inches of snow at the summit as of late yesterday afternoon, so they're off to a fast start. 

As precipitation ends, winds will remain gusty from the northwest all day. Thursday will be much like yesterday, except colder, with highs only within a few degrees either side of 40. That will be the coldest day so far this year. 

BEYOND THURSDAY

Even colder weather is on its way, though.  But it will wait until Sunday night or Monday to get here. 

Before that, another, smaller storm will blow through Friday and Friday night with light rain and maybe a bit more mountain snow. 

The rapid fire spray of storms continues after that.  A somewhat stronger storm than the one Friday is forecast to blow in on Sunday with more light to perhaps moderate rain, and a some more mountain snow. 

A blast of wintry air should come in behind Sunday's storm. By Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will only be in the 30s, and some towns in the north and hills might not get above freezing either day. 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: A Proper, Blustery Introduction To November

Map of rainfall from Friday's storm. Orange and red
areas saw more than 1.5 inches of rain. Green
areas saw less than an inch. Unfortunately, the
least rain fell where wetting was needed the most. 

 We hope you like blustery weather, because that's what we've got, as it's November in Vermont. 

Kind of our version of the "gales of November," though the wind probably won't be a dramatic as a full gale. 

Before we get into that, we now have a full accounting of the rainfall from Friday. We always welcome rain in a drought. But to be picky, I didn't love the distribution of it across Vermont. 

The least rain fell in the Northeast Kingdom, where the drought leading up to the storm was the most severe. Up there, rainfall ranged from a little less than a half inch to about three quarters of an inch.   

The heaviest rains fell in northwest Vermont, and in western Rutland County.  Both those areas are firmly in a drought. But just before our Thursday/Friday rainstorm,  the drought in those two locations wasn't quite as intense as it was in the rest of the state.

The heaviest rainfall reports include 2.94 inches in Underhill, 2.65 inches in the Nashville section of Jericho, 2.55 at Smuggler's Notch, and 2.57 inches in Westfield, which is right near Jay Peak. 

In that patch of heavier rain in western Rutland County, the big winner was West Rutland, with 2.38 inches. 

WINDY FORECAST

You might have noticed the gusty winds that seemed to cut right through you yesterday. It's November, so now we're in Vermont's long windy season that lasts until at least early spring. 

Storm systems are stronger in the colder times of year, so they can really crank up the gusts. 

A series of storms will swing by here during the week. Unfortunately, none of them have a whole lot of moisture with them, so we won't see much additional drought relief.  They also won't cause any super wide swings in temperatures. 

But the storms are strong enough to blow your hat away and mess up your hair. 

Today will actually be relatively calm between the storm that departed yesterday and the next cold front. 

But on Monday, a stiff south wind will crank up ahead of a cold front racing toward us. It'll get a little warmer as highs for many get into the 50s. The front will bring some afternoon and evening showers to Vermont, but they won't amount to much.

Behind the front on Tuesday, we'll see gusty northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. The wind will probably calm down some on Wednesday before another batch of light rain comes through. Gusty blasts of northwest winds will get going again Thursday as that little storm heads off to the east and northeast. 

Then it will probably be a rinse and repeat thing with another batch of south winds toward Friday and then north winds next weekend. 

For all this wind, we won't have much precipitation to show for it. Over the next seven days, it looks like Vermont should see between a third and a half inch of rain, with maybe a bit more in the mountains and far north. 

That's not the added drenching we're hoping for, but at least it won't be another rainless week like we so often saw in August and September, when our deep drought was settling in. 

We won't have much snow either, with just a little near the summits with each gusty disturbance that blows through. 

No Surprise, World And U.S. Had Near Record Warm November, World's Warmest Year In 2024 A Certainty

The world was seeing red again in November. NOAA
reports it was the second warmest on record and
typically of the past few years, it's hard to find
places that were on the cool side during the month. 

 We all knew November would calculate out to be a warm month for the world as a whole and  United States in particular, and it's just been confirmed. 

NOAA's  National Centers for Environmental Information released their monthly report Thursday, and tell us that for the nation as a whole,  the world's superheated trend continued in November.

THE WORLD

Just as in October, November turned out to be the world's second warmest month on record,  coming in a wee bit shy of the record set last year.  Both 2023 and 2024 were warmer than any previous November by a large margin.

In November, 2024, a little under 11 percent of world's surface had record heat, the largest in the database and even more than in 2023. 

As usual, the world was warm almost everywhere. NCEI said Asia had its warmest November on record while South America and Oceania were second warmest. 

Other areas that were particularly warm relative to average were the Arctic, the eastern half of North America, northern and southwestern Europe, Siberia, and northwestern and southern Africa. 

As has so often been the case in recent years, it was hard to find cold spots around the world in November. Parts of the western United States, central Africa, southern Greenland and Antarctica were just a smidge on the cool side. 

The amount of sea ice around the world was the second smallest for November in 46 years. There was about a million square miles less sea ice than the average over the 30 years ending in 2020.

Global tropical storm activity matched a record for November, with 13 named storms. Three of them were in the Atlantic Ocean, which makes November unusually busy there. One of the hurricanes, Rafael, peaked as a Category 3, again, weird for so late in the season. 

Year to date for 2024 is the hottest on record. Basically, the only way this year will end up cooler than last is if we have a civilization-ending meteor strike within the next couple of minutes: Spoiler:  That won't happen. 

UNITED STATES

November was warm across the eastern two thirds of the
United States and just meh in the western third.

November in the Lower 48 of the United States was the sixth warmest out of the past 130 years, says NCEI  The eastern half of the nation was warm, while the western half was near normal, more or less.

Maine, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana had their warmest November on record. The coolest state, relative to average, was Nevada, which had its 38th coolest November out of the past 130 years. 

According to NCEI, Vermont overall had its 11th warmest November in 130 years. As measured in Burlington, it was tied for 10th warmest, so at least everybody is consistent with each other. 

Reversing the very dry national trend we saw in October, November turned out to be the 17th wettest out of the past 130 years in the Lower 48. 

The Plains states, especially down toward Texas and Oklahoma were quite wet, as was northern California and Oregon. Oklahoma had its wettest November on record. Kansas came close, scoring #2 on the November wetness scoreboard. 

Dry areas included the drought-plagued Northeast, southern California, Arizona and Florida. 

Autumn, regarded by climatologists as the period from September 1 to November 30, was the nation's hottest on record. 

Year to date, the nation is still experiencing its hottest year on record.  Some areas are ridiculously on the warm side. An area stretching from Minnesota, through the Great Lakes and across northern New England are running a full five degrees warmer than average for the year so far. That's insane!

However, the United States might or might not mirror the world as a whole as making 2024 the hottest on record. 

As Yale Climate Connections explains:

".....2024 may fall short of the current record holder, 2012.  That year had the 20th warmest December in U.S. history, whereas this month to date has seen cold temperatures in the East roughly balancing warmth in the west, making the month near-average in temperature."

That said, extended forecasts entrench warm air across the western United States, and mixed signals toward the eastern part of the nation, though most long range forecasts trend towards a cool East for the rest of the month. 

We'll touch base on this in January to see how we did. 

November Was Yet Another Warm Vermont Month In An Incredibly Warm Year So Far

The first day of November opened with a sky that
sort of suggested summer and some leaves still on
trees during this near record warm autumn

 As always, we flip the calendar to a new month, so we have the climate stats for the past month, which took us through November.  

It was another warm month. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 42.0 degrees. That barely put us in the top 10 list of warmest Novembers. We tied for 10th place on the list with 1975 and 1896.

Incredibly, that means eight months this year were among the top ten warmest on record. All four seasons in 2024 also scored in the top five warmest. 

You'd think that 2024 is a shoo-in for warmest year on record, which will beat the mark set just last year. However, it appears we're gearing up for a remarkably cold December, which might spoil that record. More on that in a bit.

Temperatures

Depending on where you were in Vermont, the month came out anywhere between about 2.5 and 4.5 degrees warmer than average. 

 No surprise, the warmth of November was statewide and consistent. The warmth was punctuated by two heat bursts in the first week of the month. Temperatures climbed as high as 80 degrees in Woodstock. That's only the second time I'm aware of that it reached 80 somewhere in Vermont during November. The other occasion was during a hot spell in 1950 that brought the temperature up to 81 degrees in Bellows Falls. 

It can get below zero across the state in November, but the coldest readings of the month were mostly in the teens above zero, with some places  not dipping below the 20s. 

Burlington's low for the month was a very mild 24 degrees. (That's a full nine degrees warmer than the coldest reading ever in October, never mind November.  Also in Burlington, every day got at least a little above freezing, a rarity for November. 

Only nine days during November in Burlington were regarded as cooler than normal. And remember, this is the "new normal" based on the average of the past 30 years, when climate change had already skewed weather records.  

Precipitation

The only snow of note in November came in the final
days of the month. Most of the time, it was too 
warm for snow. 

With all the talk of drought establishing itself in Vermont, November could have been worse. It was drier than normal statewide, but storms during the final ten days of the month helped a little. 

Soil conditions are still too dry, and we could use a wet winter and spring, but so far, we're mostly hanging in there. 

Most places in Vermont usually get between about 2.5 and three inches of rain and melted snow during a typical November. This year, we were short by about an inch. 

Burlington clocked in with 1.64 inches of November rain and snow. By my count, that was the 25th driest November out of the past 131 years of reliable records in Burlington.  

Southern Vermont had the worst trouble with a lack of rain early in the month. Drought officially took hold there, and rare for the season brush and forest fires vexed that section of the state well into mid-month. 

Recent rains and snows have finally erased that threat. 

Snowfall was light, with most places not seeing any real snow until Thanksgiving. The Champlain Valley missed out on that storm. Burlington only had 0.1 inches of snow in November, tying with 2004 as the second least snowiest November. (Least snowy, totally a trace is a five way tie).

The Thanksgiving storm left a few high elevations in southern and central Vermont with more snow than  normal for November, an exception to the low-snow rule for the month. 

Autumn, 2024

Meteorological autumn, defined as the period between September 1 and November 30, was the second warmest on record in Burlington. The average temperature for the three months was 53.6 degrees. Only the autumn of 2017 was warmer.   

After a remarkably warm year so far, the first half of
December in our neck of the woods is forecast
to be much colder than we're used to. 

We had such a warm autumn mostly because of the consistency of the warmth rather than many long record hot spells. September was Burlington fourth warmest; October was ninth warmest, and as mentioned November was ties for 10th warmest.

Seven of the ten warmest autumns in Burlington have occurred since 2011.

Incredibly, as I alluded to, each season in Burlington in 2024 was among the warmest seen since they started keeping track of these things back in the 1880s. 

Winter 2023-24 was the warmest, spring, 2024 was tied for second warmest, summer was third warmest, and autumn came in second. 

Makes you wonder if global warming is altering the kind of climate we're used to, huh?  Although, we might just have coming up what has become a rare interruption in our warming Green Mountain State surroundings. 

Long Warmth Ending

Arguably, I can't remember any extended periods of cold than normal weather in Vermont since late autumn and early winter of 2019. (We have had brief excursions into record or near record cold since them, but those have only lasted a few days at most).

Forecasters and long range models are consistent in suggesting we could be about to have a December unlike anything we've seen in at least a quarter century. No guarantees on that, but it's possible.

Most Decembers have been normal to warm over the past few decades, but a persistent weather pattern seems to be setting up that would keep blasts of Arctic air coming at us. We almost guarantee the first half of December will be noticeably colder than normal, with some days being really cold. 

The signals are mixed on what would happen in the second half of December. But if it stays cold, 2023 might well end up keeping its position as Burlington's hottest year. 

The chilly December race is on! 

Another Intense November Heat Wave Sweeps Northeast

The sky might have looked chilly and November-ish
over Vermont Wednesday, but it was a balmy 70
degrees when this photo was taken in Georgia, Vermont. 

 Another November week, another spell of summer like weather in the Northeast. A lot of the new record highs were doozies! 

Record highs were obliterated in southern New England Wednesday. Boston reached 82 degrees, beating the old record of 76 set two years ago.  It was the latest in the season on record that Boston had seen a temperature of 80 degrees.

Hartford, Connecticut reached 84 degrees, exceeding the old record by a whopping eight degrees. 

That 84 degrees tied the record for the highest temperature seen there for the entire month of November. The one other time Hartford hit 84 in November was last week, on the first of the month. 

Worcester, Massachusetts reached 78 on Wednesday, exceeding the old record of 72 in 2022. Providence, Rhode Island had a record high of 77 degrees.

Temperatures Wednesday reached the low 80s as far north as southwestern Maine and south-central New Hampshire.  Portland, Maine reached 79 degrees shattering the previous record for the entire month of November, which had been 75 degrees set two years ago.

It's somewhat rare to break a record for an entire month, but to exceed the old mark by four degrees is really off the charts. 

Manchester, New Hampshire broke its November record by reaching 80 degrees. Concord, New Hampshire ties it record for November by also reaching 80 degrees Wednesday. Bangor, Maine tied its record high for the entire month of November, too. They reached 75 degrees. 

Temperatures the day before, on Tuesday, reached record highs in western New York, the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. These  included an amazing 85 degrees in Dunkirk, New York, which is south of Buffalo along Lake Erie. Dunkirk is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards in November and the rest of winter than heat waves, but there you go. 

Elsewhere on Tuesday record highs included 81 in Rochester, New York, 86 in Ashland, Kentucky, and 82 in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania and Zanesville, Ohio. 

Here in Vermont, it was plenty warm but we did not have record highs. Clouds helped keep the records a little shy of the incredible heat we had two years ago Wednesday. 

Still, Burlington reached 70 degrees Wednesday, the third time this month it got to at least 70, which is pretty are for November. Though not a record, because it got to 70 degrees on four occasions in November, 2020.

Across the pond in Plattsburgh, they did manage to see a record high Wednesday of 75 degrees, besting the old record of 73 set in 1948. 

OUTLOOK

It doesn't look like we have any more record November warmth coming up, at least in the near future. But it will stay mild for the season. 

The forecast calls for near to above normal temperatures most days, probably through at least around November 20 or so. Some days will be warmer than others, and some days will be quite balmy for the season. But the weather pattern now features weak cold fronts coming through frequently enough here in Vermont to - probably - prevent more big late autumn hot spells. 

Of course, long range forecasts could change, so we'll keep an eye on that. 

Sometimes by this point in November, early season snow lovers get an early gift. Not this year. From what I see, we can expect little if any snow probably for the next 10 days or so except occasional flurries on the cooler days at the mountain summits. 

Late Season Burst Of Tropical Storms; Southern Plains Battered By Tornadoes, Rain Steadfastly Avoids Northeast

That disorganized swirl of clouds between Cuba and
South America in this morning's satellite view
could eventually become Tropical Storm Rafael.

 UPDATE 5 PM SUNDAY:

Late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated that disturbance in the western Caribbean as "Potential Tropical Cyclone #18".

The reason is, this thing has gotten a noticeable circulation since this morning, bringing it closer to tropical storm status.

It wasn't quite there yet, so the NHC is still calling it potential.

By morning, I'm pretty sure it will be officially Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecasts are pretty bullish on this thing.  It's expected to become a hurricane.

It should be a strong tropical storm by the time it brushes past Jamaica Tuesday, and a hurricane Wednesday when the Cayman Islands and western Cuba deal with it.

From there, it's expected to move north or northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico where it faces a very uncertain future.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

The strange, busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is giving one last hurrah, with two systems now roaming out there. 

Meanwhile, the southern Plains keep getting battered by storms and the Northeast still seems to have a steadfast anti-rain shield.

TROPICS

Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores a couple days ago, and then moved eastward into those islands yesterday and overnight. 

It's subtropical, not Tropical Storm  Patty because it has the characteristics of both a tropical and non-tropical system.

  It's got a warm core like a tropical storm but it's formed within a larger storm system with a colder center, which is what you normally see with a non-tropical storm.

Patty's winds peaked at 65 mph yesterday and it's now weakening.  It's forecast to become a remnant low that'll hit northern Portugal and northwestern Spain toward Tuesday.  It won't cause too many problems there. Which is good, since Spain is reeling from that epic flood in the Valencia region on the opposite end of the nation. 

Patty is the ninth named tropical or tropical type storm to form in the Atlantic since September 24. That ties with 1950 as the most such storms to form in the Atlantic after that date in September. 

But wait, there's more! 

The real trouble is brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. That area has been monitored for more than a week for signs of a tropical storm. The area of disturbed weather is finally getting its act together and is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael within the next couple of days. 

If a tropical storm forms in November, this is the place they usually start.  The water temperature down there is still super warm, and it's too far south for autumn cold fronts to disrupt attempts at development. 

Early indications are Wannabe Rafael will try to move north and threaten Jamaica, Hispaniola or Cuba. It could even reach hurricane strength. 

Once Wannabe Rafael gets past Cuba, all bets are off. The early thinking is it will end up in the Gulf of Mexico, but will it eventually hit the United States and if so, where?

We don't know. Also. Wannabe Rafael could hit a hostile environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf is far enough north to see those autumn cold fronts this time of year. A front like that would bring dry air and strong upper level winds, which would tend to rip a tropical storm or hurricane apart.

Then again, it's still possible for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States in November. It happened with Hurricane Kate back in 1985 and Nicole back in 2022, both of which hit Florida. So we'll see. 

Even if it's a weak system Florida does not need another hurricane or tropical storm this year after the damage and heartache Debby, Helene and Milton caused. 

Believe it or not, some forecast models depict another tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean around November 19-ish. However, those long range models very often create phantom forecast hurricanes that more often than not never form, so that that November 19 idea with a tremendously large grain of salt. 

SOUTHERN PLAINS

Storm chaser Nick Smith documented this severe
overnight tornado damage in Harrah, Oklahoma,
just east of Oklahoma City. 

The overall weather pattern is stuck, so storms keep hitting the southern Plains and that state of affairs seems like it will continue for awhile. A handful of tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma and Texas yesterday. 

Tornadoes around Oklahoma City damaged several homes and caused at least six injuries, television station KOCO reports. 

More severe weather and possible tornadoes are expected in the same region later today and especially tomorrow. 

Torrential storms caused flooding in what had been drought-stricken parts of Oklahoma overnight. More flooding is possible today and tomorrow. 

That rain is not heading east, so the drought-stricken Northeast will continue with its long stretch of parched ground and wildfires.  

For Sixth Month In A Row, World Shatters High Temperature Record

The world was red in November, meaning most of it was
warmer than normal. In fact, despite chill in Antarctica,
November was the world's warmest on record.
So far, December is looking toasty, too.

Another month, another month of insane global high temperatures. 

I didn't get a chance to write this up recently as I was all in with this weeks Vermont December flood. But a week ago, the National Centers for Environmental Information released its report on the world's climate for November, 2023.

November was by far the world's warmest, coming in at 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the previous record set in 2015.  Breaking a temperature record by less than 1 degree sounds like a trifle, but on a global basis, setting a new mark by that margin is insane.   

This was the sixth consecutive month that a new world record was set for hottest monthly temperature. It was also the eighth consecutive month that global sea temperatures hit a record high

For those of you keeping track, if you are under the age of 47, you have never seen a global November that was cooler than the long term average.

Given this string of records, 2023 is pretty much assured of being the hottest year on record. That's especially true given that December around the world so far has been wicked toasty, too.

The fact that 2023 will be the warmest year on record is a bit of a surprise. As the year opened, experts knew an El Nino was on the way. El Nino boosts global temperatures. As I've noted ad nauseam at this point, El Nino is working in concert with climate change to boost global temperatures. 

But early this year, the thought was that the full effects of El Nino wouldn't be felt until 2024. So, eleven months ago, the idea was 2023 would be wicked warm, but we'd have to wait until 2024 to see a new record warm year.

So much for that idea. 

In November, the warmest areas compared to average was much of the Arctic, Alaska, northwestern and central Canada, Siberia, eastern Europe, the Mideast, central Africa and central South America. Also, the eastern and central Pacific, thanks to El Nino.

There were a few tiny glimmers of hope. 

As Antarctica was heading toward its summer, November for most of that continent was actually decidedly cooler than average. That probably slowed early season ice melt a little bit, which is great. The Antarctic coolness does very little to slow ice loss and sea level rise, but any last it was a teeny, tiny break for the world. 

The only other relatively cool areas in the world in November were a zone centered on Mongolia, the North Sea, and an area of the Pacific Ocean southwest of South America. 

Also, there were only four tropical cyclones in the world during November, the lowest number since at least 1981

Another minuscule bright note is that the El Nino that is working in concert with climate change to boost world temperatures to record levels might end sooner than many experts anticipated. 

As Fox Weather reports, El Nino, which has been boosting global temperatures in concert with climate change, might wane a bit prematurely.  Says Fox Weather:

"NOAA's latest forecast now suggests El Nino may be over as soon as April - a month earlier than last month's forecast. The probability of El Nino conditions remaining in April has dropped from 62 percent to 37 percent."

A few months after El Nino ends, the sharp increase in global temperatures we've seen during this phenomenon will probably tend to level off. If we eventually flip to a cooler La Nina phase, global temperatures would probably end up a tiny bit cooler than the record levels of 2023 and the expect record high levels of 2024.

That's not exactly big relief. Even during the theoretical "cooler" La Nina conditions that might hit by 2025, global temperatures will probably remain stuck a little above the levels of the La Nina years of 2020 to 2022.

As we know, climate change crises such as wildfires, record, deadly heat waves and unprecedented storms continued in 2020-22, because global temperatures were well above those of the 19th century thanks to climate change.

We should expect more of that kind of awfulness no matter whether we're in an El Nino or La Nina.

 

 

Nation's November Was Warm And Dry, Many States Heading Toward Record Warmest Year

Once we start getting into mid-month, climate figures for the previous month start trickling in. Friday, we learned the United States had its 19th warmest and 12th driest November out of the past 128 years.

November was a warm month in a warm year in the 
United States. States colored in orange were warmer
than normal, states with no shading were pretty
close to average,

Most of the western and central United States was warmer than average, with six states scoring among the top 20 warmest Novembers in the past century and a quarter or so.  

The eastern United States was a little on the cool side, but not by much. Vermont and Massachusetts tied for the chilliest, at least relative to the long term average. But it wasn't that cold.  Both states had their 47th coldest November out of the past 128 years.

Here's one more way to look at the warmth of November in the United States: Weather stations across the U.S,. reported 1248 daily record highs during the month compare to just 658 record lows. (There are always at least some record lows. Climate change hasn't rid the world of cold snaps just yet).

Despite the slight nippiness of November in the eastern U.S., many states had one of their warmest meteorological autumns on record. Meteorological autumn runs from September 1 through November 30. For the Lower 48, it was the fourth warmest autumn out of the past 128 years. 

Nineteen states, including Vermont, had one of their top 10 warmest autumn on record. (Vermont ranked sixth warmest).

Almost always in any given month, parts of the Lower 48 are dry, other parts are wet.  November, 2023 was an exception. Every state except Florida was dry. And the Florida wetness was due mostly to an extreme storm on November 16 that dumped more than a foot of rain on parts of South Florida. 

The Midwest was especially dry. Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky each had one of their top 10 driest Novembers on record. 

Going back to temperature info, there's only one month of data left for 2023 and the United States is headed toward a very warm year. 

Thirty-one states have had the warmest January-November period this year. With December looking like it will turn out to be near average or warmer than average, most, perhaps all of those states will have one of their top ten warmest years on record. Vermont is among those states. 

With El Nino continuing to blare on and climate change unabated, 2023 looks like it will be globally the world's hottest year on record. And 2024 looks even hotter. I'll have updated global November data within a few days  

Chilly, Dry November In Vermont, But December Starting Warmer, Wetter

November was somewhat chilly and dry in Vermont with
plenty of showery or snow showery days with limited
sun, as this photo taken in St. Albans, Vermont
on November 19 hints at. Still this year is likely
to be among the warmest on record. 

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - I'm still here enjoying his gorgeous Scottish city, but also still keeping an eye on the weather back home in Vermont. 

Here in Edinburgh, it's quite cold and bright, unusual for this area. Temperatures never made it above freezing here yesterday, and the sky was sunny all (short) day.  

Hills outside of town are snow-covered, and some cars in downtown Edinburgh had snow on them yesterday. 

Normally daytime temperatures here in Edinburgh are in the low 40s.  Overcast skies are almost always a sure bet this time of year.  There's always a risk of seeing rain showers.  .

Which is what Burlington was like yesterday. I guess Vermont we swapped places with Scotland, in terms of weather. 

Looking back at the Vermont November, that month was also very much like early winter in Edinburgh. Video of the November weather moodiness is at the bottom of this post.  

November was a rare cool month in what has been a warm Vermont year. In most places around the Green Mountain State, it was about two degrees cooler than the "new" warmer climate change-driven average. November temperatures were close to average, or even a little above average, had this month happened half a century or so ago.

Still, in Burlington, November had its greatest departure below normal of any month this year - 2.1 degrees under the average of the years 1990 to 2020.

No days were super cold, though. By the end of November, it can often get into the single digits above or even below zero. But it never got below 18 degrees in Burlington during the month. Everyone else, except the coldest valleys also stayed in the teens or warmer all month.

We never got that warm during November in Vermont, either. The warmest day for most of us was in the low 60s. That's a far cry from the all time November highs we saw a year ago.  

November was on the dry side, too, with most of us running somewhere in the half inch or so shy of normal, give or take depending your location. Again, it was really nothing that out of the ordinary.

In fact, in a year that has brought Vermont some wild extremes, and some pretty big disaster, November, with one big exception was a pretty boring month in terms of weather.  I guess we needed the break.

That exception came on November 27, when unexpectedly heavy, wet snow cut power to around 34,000 homes and businesses. That was yet another big disaster of Vermont electric utilities that have suffered several such widespread outages in recent years. The same storm caused lots of travel trouble and highway crashes. 

Despite the relative chill of November, we are on track to have one of our warmest years on record, at least in Burlington,

If December turns out to be exactly average (remember, it's the new average that is warmer than in past decades) 2023 will end up being the second or third warmest year on record. Unless December is exceptionally cold, we'll easily have a top ten warmest year.

Remarkably, if this year ends up in the top 10 warmest list of years, it will be the fourth year in a row to make that rare list. Especially considering the Burlington records go back all the way to the 1880s. I wonder if there's something to this climate change thing everybody talks about?

As you can tell, December is off to a relatively warm start (In Vermont, not Edinburgh, obviously). As always, I don't generally trust long range forecast, but for the record, those longer range forecasts call for near to perhaps slightly warmer than average temperatures through mid-month. We shall see. 

Despite the relative chill here in Vermont, the world as a whole will probably have its warmest November on record. That would continue the trend we've seen for at least the past five months, as El Nino and climate change really turbo-charge global temperatures to new and dangerous heights. 

Video: The different cloudy moods of November in Vermont. Taken at various times in November, 2023 in northwestern Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Sunday Evening Vermont Update: Heavier Precipitation, But Still Mostly Rain

We're going to have a cold rain in the Champlain Valley of
Vermont later tonight. Although clouds were increasing this
afternoon, a burst of sun toward sunset gave us a 
golden glow before we got into tonight's chilly rain. 

In checking out the updates from the National Weather Service in South Burlington late Sunday afternoon, there's some changes in the storm forecast tonight and Monday morning, but most people won't really notice the difference. 

We will have mostly a cold rain, as planned. 

This is still going to be mostly a cold, miserable rain overnight and Monday morning. 

It could start off as snow, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet above sea level before midnight tonight, but it will quickly go over to rain, except maybe at the mountain summits, where it might take a bit longer for the changeover.

Rainfall will be a little heavier than I mentioned this morning, The latest projections have the Champlain Valley receiving maybe a little over a third of an inch of rain, most of central Vermont seeing a half to two thirds of an inch, and southeastern Vermont seeing perhaps an inch of rain.

So kinda of a soaker but not the end of the world. 

Another thing I noticed is this icky weather looks like it wants to blast out of here pretty quickly on Monday. 

Monday afternoon might be sort of nice by late November standards, especially west of the Green Mountains. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, there might be glimpses of sun, and winds will only be sort of blustery.  

It will still get cold again Monday night and Tuesday with snow showers. Nothing to get excited about in Vermont. Just a coating in Vermont. The remnants of heavy lake affect snow showers in New York should make it into the Green Mountain State but those will only dust the mountains. At least it will be cold enough for ski resorts to keep making snow after a brief interruption overnight and a good chunk of Monday. 

The rest of the upcoming week looks rather bland with clouds, risks of light snow showers here and there, and temperatures about where they're supposed to be this time of year. That means highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens and 20s.

We're stuck in a sort of pre-winter. If you like big weather drama in Vermont, you're pretty much out of luck of the time being. 

Vermont Storm Assessment And Forecast: It Was Well Predicted. Coming UP: Lots Of Cold, Not Much Storminess

This is the forecast of snowfall of the storm we just had,
issued less than 24 hours before it started. The southeastern
third of Vermont was expected to get roughly four inches of snow
with much less in western Vermont.....

The snow and schmutz we had last night and early this morning is over, leaving behind a low overcast, fog, and drizzle. 

The snow and sleet on the ground is slowly melting. But enough snow fell in eastern Vermont to guarantee a white Thanksgiving. 

Who knows whether there will be a white Christmas, but at least one holiday is snowy for some of us. 

The forecast location of the heaviest snow was spot on. The heaviest snow was expected along and east of the Green Mountains from Route 2 south. That's exactly what happened. 

Total snowfall, though, was a little more than forecast. The zone of heaviest snow was expected to bring three to five inches. However, several places received six inches, or at least close to it. I saw quite a few reports of more than five inches.

A map of actual snowfall from this storm from the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
The location of the heaviest snow was spot on, but 
the amount of snow was a little heavier than forecast.

The snow winners seem to be 6.3 inches in Maidstone, up in the Northeast Kingdom and 6.0 in Ascutney, in southeastern Vermont. 

It really does look like the summits in the Green Mountains have established a snow cover for the winter. Before the storm, the top of Mount Mansfield had three inches on the ground.

 Several inches of additional snow covered the mountain in this storm. The weather is expected to stay fairly cold for the next week or two, so get used to snow covered mountains. Yay!

Going forward, there's not much exciting weather to talk about. Thanksgiving Day will probably be the warmest of the next week and a half at least. But it won't be that warm, as highs will probably only make it to the low 40s at best. 

Small disturbances from the northwest will keep us in a regime of continued colder than normal weather with minor episodes of snow showers. Winter is here. For now,.

For those who are not quite ready for winter, there's hints of warmer weather starting around the second week of December. However, these long range forecasts are notoriously iffy, so don't count on it! 

Nuisance November Snow Continues To Pester Vermont

Snow started accumulating on our northwestern Vermont
property Monday afternoon, putting an end to what had
been a chilly but productive couple of hours of
outdoor work ahead of winter. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues a special weather statement early this morning, saying some roads especially at mid and high elevations, were getting snow covered a slippery from moderate snow showers roaming around the state. 

Even by mid-morning, I'm sure there's a couple slick spots out there. Nothing extreme, but definitely worth slowing down for. 

The snow showers should taper off by this afternoon, but it's another case of November nuisance snow we've seen this month. 

Maybe nuisance is too strong a word. Because it has led to some pretty scenes around the region, especially earlier this month when it accumulated on late season fall colors  - we call it snoliage. 

It started snowing again yesterday when I was trying to complete some late season chores out in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. I expected flurries, I instead got a solid few hours of steady snow, see video at the bottom of this post. It didn't amount to much, but it was enough to get in the way. 

I know it was just typical November weather, but I always seem to want to expect more than is reasonable. 

Today is also another one of those dark, dreary November days we've been talking about and enduring. It's even kind of foggy out there in a lot of spots to add to the gloom. It won't get any better as the day wears on. Most of us will stay in the 30s, though a few "lucky" spots get to 40 for a time this afternoon. 

It also seems like we've got a brief reprieve coming up for the rest of the week.  It'll warm into the 50s by Thursday, which is actually somewhat warmer than average for a change.  There could even be some periods of sun Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees, but the chance is there.

 A cold front comes in Friday or Friday night with some rain, then it's back to the sad gray overcast and chances of more flurries. 

Not sure on this one yet, but next Monday could be the coldest of the season so far. Early indications are some towns won't even make it above freezing that day.  Winter is rushing toward us, and the light snows of November we keep having are a sure sign of it.

Video:

Another light November snow interrupts an outdoor day of chores in St Albans, Vermont. Pretty, though. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: