Vermont Week Ahead: Thawing For Awhile With Frequent Rain/Snow Chances

A few snowflakes seen drifting down yesterday -
a gloomy but somewhat milder day than we've
had recently. A thaw starts today. 

OK, technically, our anticipated thaw sorta, kinda started Sunday, but it was essentially another winter day. 

In Burlington and here in St. Albans, the temperature got up to 34 degrees for a little while, which didn't exactly set off a rush of melting snow.  A few places in southeastern Vermont managed to reach the mid-30s. 

Snowflakes occasionally wafted down out of the sky, and a few places picked up an inch or so of snow. 

Except of course near the usual snowy Jay Peak, where nearby towns such as Westfield and Montgomery got about four inches of new snow Saturday night and early Sunday. 

After more snow flurries and snow showers last evening, we're starting this Monday morning pretty mild.  That should set the stage for our long awaited thaw.  

It won't be a dramatic thaw.  It won't suddenly get wildly warm, then immediately crash to near 0 temperatures within hours. Instead, temperature trends will be gradual. 

There won't be any big storms, either. Just a near constant risk of drizzle, cold rain drops here and some potential slight snowy interruptions. Especially in higher elevations where the thawing won't amount to too much to begin with.   

And like the skies we saw on Sunday, it will mostly a gloomy thaw.   

We might see a little sun this morning. But don't count on it. The sun might also come out a little bit on Wednesday.  You might not want to hold your breath on that one, either .

And spoiler: We're not done with winter. It's going to come roaring back before you know it. 

Let's break down the week.

TODAY

A storm passing far to our north means we'll pretty much miss out on any real precipitation today. There probably will be a few snowflake and raindrops around, especially close to the Canadian border, but they won't amount to anything.  The Champlain Valley looks like it will turn a bit gusty, as south winds could get as high as 35 mph.

The breezes will keep tonight mild, as lows in the Champlain Valley and a few other warmer valleys probably won't even get below freezing.  That sets us up for Tuesday.

TUESDAY

The best guess is this will be a cloudy gloomy, possibly foggy, drizzly damp day. Highs in the valleys should make it to about 40 degrees. There's some questions as to whether the mountain summits might see a little snow, rime ice or freezing drizzle. 

There's a weak little system coming through which will provided us with some light sprinkles or wet snowflakes. One computer forecasting model is a little stronger with this system, which if it pans out could end up giving us a slight accumulation of wet snow Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecasters are dubious about this, however, so don't count on any replacement snow, unless perhaps you're on a mountain peak. 

A thaw day, but not a nice day, if it works out as planned.

WEDNESDAY

Perhaps the "nicest" day of the week? At least there very little if any precipitation. And it will be mild, with highs in the 36 to 42 degree range. 

THURSDAY

Last day of the thaw. At this point it looks like a modest storm might start us out with a little snow in the morning, but most of us should change to a light, cold rain during the day. We'll keep an eye on this because if the colder air gets here faster, we could have a little more snow.  

Earlier forecasts had called or a somewhat larger storm on Thursday, but now it's looking pretty tame. More gloom and dampness, but that's about it. 

FRIDAY

Colder and windy as the thaw ends. Morning snow showers should taper off. Of course, the timing could change this far out.   Road conditions from light snow showers will be a question once again. We shall see.

SATURDAY

Another round of snow showers, but again, so far it's not looking like a big storm. There's some questions on temperatures. If the storm goes a little to our north, we could briefly pop back up above freezing again. If it goes to our south, we stay cold. The forecasting models are split on this one so far. 

Beyond that we get another winter cold shot, but we'll address that when we get closer to the event. 

For those of you who aren't ready for spring, there will be plenty of snow left in the mountains and many areas of northern and central Vermont after this week's little thaw to carry on with your winter fun

 

Nuisance November Snow Continues To Pester Vermont

Snow started accumulating on our northwestern Vermont
property Monday afternoon, putting an end to what had
been a chilly but productive couple of hours of
outdoor work ahead of winter. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues a special weather statement early this morning, saying some roads especially at mid and high elevations, were getting snow covered a slippery from moderate snow showers roaming around the state. 

Even by mid-morning, I'm sure there's a couple slick spots out there. Nothing extreme, but definitely worth slowing down for. 

The snow showers should taper off by this afternoon, but it's another case of November nuisance snow we've seen this month. 

Maybe nuisance is too strong a word. Because it has led to some pretty scenes around the region, especially earlier this month when it accumulated on late season fall colors  - we call it snoliage. 

It started snowing again yesterday when I was trying to complete some late season chores out in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. I expected flurries, I instead got a solid few hours of steady snow, see video at the bottom of this post. It didn't amount to much, but it was enough to get in the way. 

I know it was just typical November weather, but I always seem to want to expect more than is reasonable. 

Today is also another one of those dark, dreary November days we've been talking about and enduring. It's even kind of foggy out there in a lot of spots to add to the gloom. It won't get any better as the day wears on. Most of us will stay in the 30s, though a few "lucky" spots get to 40 for a time this afternoon. 

It also seems like we've got a brief reprieve coming up for the rest of the week.  It'll warm into the 50s by Thursday, which is actually somewhat warmer than average for a change.  There could even be some periods of sun Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees, but the chance is there.

 A cold front comes in Friday or Friday night with some rain, then it's back to the sad gray overcast and chances of more flurries. 

Not sure on this one yet, but next Monday could be the coldest of the season so far. Early indications are some towns won't even make it above freezing that day.  Winter is rushing toward us, and the light snows of November we keep having are a sure sign of it.

Video:

Another light November snow interrupts an outdoor day of chores in St Albans, Vermont. Pretty, though. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Video: Finally, A Little Vermont Snow

Light snow begins to whiten up the winter landscape
in St. Albans, Vermont on December 11, 2022.

 The classic first big snowstorm of the season in Vermont plays out like this:

It had been cold for a few days, so things have frozen up. The ground is hard and frosty. Ice is forming on the edges of the brooks, and the ponds have a thin skim of ice.  

The blue sky turns milky, with a big rainbow ring around the sun. Then the clouds get lower, thicker, duller, and blot out the sun.  It's gloomy.

Then you notice the tops of the mountains get blurry and disappear. That blurriness descends down the slopes of the mountains until a few snowflakes start drifting down. 

Soon, the snow gets steadier and heavier. A dark, bare landscape finally starts to glow winter white.

Well, there was an attempt, anyway at the scenario in Vermont on Sunday. The snow ultimately didn't amount to much, but otherwise the scenario above pretty much played out. Without the end result of deep snow, but that's OK. 

Of course, I had to video at least part of the sequence.  The sky had already turned gloomy, and water in the brooks made their way past building ice. Jackson the Weather Dog sniffed at  the changed in the weather coming, and shook the first few snowflakes of the day off his coat.  

 The dark, cold, landscape gradually took on some white highlights in the light falling snow. The roads got a bit icy as cars, with Christmas trees strapped on the roof, returned from the cut your own tree farm up in Bakersfield. 

The video is a glimpse of winter's (somewhat reluctant) arrival.  But there is the chance of an even bigger storm toward the end of the week. We'll see.

If you don't see the image of the video below, click on this link to view. Otherwise, click on the image below to view the video of an attempt at bringing on the early part of winter in Vermont: 

The Almost No Snow Forecast Stands, But.......(Updated To Include Expanded Winter Weather Advisories)

My driveway in St. Albans, Vermont is pretty much cleaned
up from last Friday's 15.7 inch snowfall. Despite some
hints of flurries and freezing drizzle in the forecast,
I won't have to worry about too much more shoveling
this week with a mostly dry forecast.

UPDATED, 5 p.m. MONDAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has expanded the winter weather advisories since this morning.

Those advisories now cover all of Vermont except anything west of the Green Mountains from Addison County north. 

Forecasters are still expecting only light precipitation, but it will come in the form of an ugly light snow and freezing drizzle combination tonight and early tomorrow.

It doesn't take much to ice up the roads, so be careful driving tonight and early tomorrow.

There might be a few snowflakes, or a wee bit of freezing drizzle or freezing fog in northwestern Vermont overnight and early tomorrow.

Though the northwest has no weather advisories, there could still be a few slick spots even there. 

 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

For days now, I've been saying that after that big dump of snow we had in central and northern parts of Vermont that we'll next go through a long period with little new snow.  

All that is still true, but if you're in parts of southern and eastern Vermont, it turns out you'll deal with a small bout of icky, wintry weather today and tonight. 

Another nor'easter will take a similar track as the one that brought a blizzard to eastern New England a couple weekends ago.  

The difference this time is the one coming by later today is much, much, weaker than the previous, has much less moisture to work with and will be out of out hair soon.

The upshot is this piddling little nor'easter will still shove a little snow and freezing drizzle into southern and eastern Vermont later today and tonight.  These areas will end up with at most an inch or two of snow and a light glaze. Or additional glaze since trees in southern Vermont are still ice covered from the freezing rain Thursday night and Friday morning.

Today's "storm" if you want to call it that, won't add enough additional ice to renew any power outage problem.  But roads will become slick again in southern Vermont, and east of the Green Mountains. That's especially true south of St. Johnsbury. 

It's all enough for the National Weather Service to issue winter weather advisories for southern and eastern Vermont due to the iffy roads that now seem likely. 

Northwestern Vermont might get some flurries or a few particles of freezing drizzle tonight, but nothing wild. 

The forecast for the rest of the week is still the same: Relatively mild and just little bits of snow showers, with possible very light rain showers in the valleys Thursday.