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| Traffic camera shortly after 10 a.m today shows show flurries continuing on a snow-covered landscape along high elevation Route 125 in Ripton, VT. |
The valleys mostly had a cold rain, with just a few snowflakes mixed in. A few snowflakes did mix with the rain Saturday morning in Burlington, so the city has finally gotten its first trace of snow this season.
It looks like that's a tie for the third latest first flurry of the year. If you love snow, hope is not lost, though El Nino in Vermont tend to have lighter snow. However late first flurries are no guarantee of a weak snow season.
The first flurries of the seasons in 2007 in Burlington didn't arrive until November 16. That winter went on to become the fourth snowiest on record with 120.2 inches.
Near the summit of Mount Mansfield, four inches of snow covered the ground as of yesterday afternoon. The mountain shattered the record for latest in the season there was at least an inch of snow up there. The old record was November 9.
On Saturday, brief accumulations didn't reach as far into the valleys as I thought it might. It was just a little warmer than forecast, though "warm" isn't exactly the word I'd use to describe Saturday's weather.
There just wasn't much of a connection to cold Canadian air, as mild Pacific air is flooding most of North America. So this air mass just isn't that chilly.
El Nino is doing this and will have an impact on Vermont's weather all week.
It features a dip in the jet stream sending storms into the West Coast. Sometimes the storms come all the way across the country, sometimes it builds a big ridge of mild winter high pressure over the eastern United States.
El Nine is giving us the Big Fat Ridge option this week, El Nino is giving us a break for now.
Let's get into the daily forecast.
TODAY
We're still under the northwest flow today from that storm way up in eastern Canada. An upper level storm that produced the widespread valley rain and higher elevation snow is also gone.
The result? A mainly cloudy day, with maybe more breaks of sun in the lower Connecticut River valley. Highs should be in the 38 to 46 degree range. A typical Vermont November day.
MONDAY
That big, fat high pressure system will become established, centered over the central Appalachians. Again, as is typical for November, it will take time for the skies to clear. The low angle November sun can't easily break up our dull overcast.
But some sun should appear, especially in the valleys. Highs should be in the seasonable 40s.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY
If this were in the spring or summer, this setup could bring us near record high temperatures.
November will create a different situation. High pressure systems have relatively light winds. That allows cooler air to sit in lower elevations, where we live - it's called an inversion. They are frequent this time of year.
In the spring and summer, strong sunshine heats the ground, causing updrafts that break up the inversion. In those cases, under big high pressure systems, the broken up and discarded inversions allow it go get hot.
The low-angled sun in November can't break up the inversions. So the cool air stays near the surface, where most of us live. So it won't get quite as warm as it would without inversions.
Still, it won't be so bad at all. Nights will be seasonably cold, in the 20s to near 30. Afternoons will still manage to get into the 50s under generally partly sunny skies. Overall, that kind of weather is somewhat warmer than normal, so we'll take it.
Even better, a week of partly sunny skies is a rarity in usually overcast November. So enjoy.
The drawback to this is a lack of precipitation, which Vermont still really needs. The forecast could change, but for now, it looks like our next chance of substantial precipitation might not come along until around November 28.
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