Vermont Weather Takes Uncertain Turn As Pesky Storm Lingers

People enjoyed a sunny day yesterday at the University
of Vermont campus in Burlington, Vermont.  It turns
out it might well have been the last sunny day
we'll see in Vermont for a week. 

 For at least a week now, computer forecasting models have been expecting a stalled  upper level low to set up in early May somewhere in or near the eastern United States.  

The problem has been where does it set up? Close to Vermont, we get a long spell of showery weather. Far enough away, it would be generally sunny and mild.  It's been a tossup.

Now, there's more consensus that this thing will be close enough to make us showery.  But how showery?

We're still not sure.

These sluggish, stalled systems are often very hard to nail down. Sure, you can pretty accurate predict where the upper low will be a day, or two even three days from now. But what that upper low does down here where we live is always a question mark.

At ground level, these upper lows produce stalled or nearly stalled weather fronts. They spin up weak storms that could go right over us, or miss.  The upper lows help bring in moisture from the Atlantic Ocean that comes in surges then wanes, changing the chances that it will rain. 

So, it you need help planning your Vermont outdoor weather plans for the next week or so, meteorologists will be of little help.  At least with the specifics. 

Broad brush, the forecast is set.  There's a chance of showers daily today through probably next Thursday. When on those days the showers hit, and where, and how heavy they might be is questionable.  Will there be breaks of sun? Quite possibly. When? Who knows?

Expect changes to forecasts daily. 

TRYING AT SPECIFICS

Meteorologists, including the National Weather Service in South Burlington, of course are taking a crack at the forecast.

The rain from this morning is leaving Vermont as of 9 a.m.   We'll still be near a weather front today, with a warm front to the north and a cold front to the west. 

That'll leave us in some warm, somewhat humid air.  So, with the fronts near by and the air being a bit unstable with that moisture, we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Those storms would be hit and miss, and not severe. Though a few might contain some briefly gusty winds. 

That upper low we've talked about looks like it will start out tomorrow in the Ohio or even Mississippi Valley - further west than first thought. 

That upper low will influence that cold front that's to our west today. It'll make the front stall near or just south of Vermont.  Little disturbances will track southwest to northeast along that front, which would push showers our way. 

Although it won't rain all day tomorrow, it will be our seventh rainy Saturday in a row. I guess we just can't escape that.  At this point it looks like most of the rain would be in the afternoon, and most persistent in southern and eastern Vermont. 

That front will be hanging around Sunday, so we're at risk for shower then, too. Best chances of showers I think would be southern Vermont. I don't think the entire day will be a washout. 

The rest of the forecast is of course very iffy.   The thought currently is that upper level low will come toward New England, increasing the chances of showers by Tuesday. The hope is it will get out of our hair by about a week from now, opening the door to some spring sunshine. 

At least temperatures during this episode will be close to normal by day, a little on the warm side at night due to clouds. That means daily highs after today in the 57 to 65 degree range and lows in the 40s to near 50. 

Bonus: No snow!!

West Coast Storm Waves Harbinger Of Upcoming Stormy U.S. Including Here In New England.

Two men trapped on debris in the water after the 
end of the Santa Cruz, California wharf collapsed
under an onslaught of huge waves from offshore
Pacific Ocean storms. 

 Huge battering waves have been smashing into the California coast for days, and that state of affairs is likely to continue into the weekend. 

As it is, the part of the Santa Cruz Wharf fell into the Pacific Ocean Monday after waves tore at its supports. Three people were stranded on the floating debris. Two were rescued and the other managed to swim to shore. 

However, at Sunset State Beach along Monterey Bay, a man died after waves pinned him beneath debris. 

Residents along part of the shore south of Santa Cruz were also evacuated due to large, battering waves.   Many boats were sunk or otherwise damaged as huge swells crashed into Santa Cruz Harbor. 

Although the waves have diminished slightly since Tuesday, high surf advisories linger along the California Coast through Sunday. Large breaking waves of up to 10 to 15 feet are likely along the central coast.

The huge waves are tied to immense storms out over the Pacific Ocean. Some of that storminess is making its way inland along the Washington, Oregon and northern California coasts, and that has implications for storminess in broad sections of the United States, including here in New England.

The storms are already smashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest.  As of this morning, the coast of Washington State was under coastal flooding and high wind warnings, and high surf advisories. 

 One of these storms impulse from the Pacific has already crossed the Rocky Mountains and will start to cause trouble in Texas and Louisiana today.  There, severe thunderstorms, perhaps a few tornadoes and some local flash floods and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will menace the region on this Boxing Day.

That one should largely fade, giving us only clouds and the risk of very light precipitation Saturday. 

Hot on the heels of this storm will be another the will have blown in off the Pacific Ocean and then dived down into the central Plains. This one, like the one today, also seems destined to create some severe weather and flash floods, this time in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Eventually this storm will curve northeastward and affect us here in New England Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately for you winter lovers, this one looks like a rain event, with maybe some freezing rain to start, especially in eastern Vermont.

Morning temperatures this morning were only in the single digits, with some spots below zero. Same thing should happen tonight. That's really chilling the ground, so when rain arrives Saturday night or early Sunday, it will probably freeze on many surfaces even if the air temperature is a little above freezing.  So we'll keep an eye on that. 

This could be a fairly wet storm for us.  Early guesses range from a half inch to an inch of rain, but we'll know more about that as we get closer to the storm's start time.

After that yet another storm will blast into the Pacific Northwest, cross the Rockies, get into the Plains, redevelop and create a third storm that would affect us around New Years Day 

  We still have lots of questions as to whether that one will be mostly rain, mostly snow or just one of those All Of The Above storms. 

We also don't know how strong it will be, but it's possible it could be a fairly strong one. As usual we'll just have to wait and see. 

EDITORS NOTE: Apologies for the lack of photos or other illustrations with this post earlier. Either a problem  with the Blogger platform, or an issue with the WiFi at the hotel I'm staying at is not allowing me to add photos. I hope the problem will be fixed for future posts. Once I got home to a better connection I was able to fix it 

 

Vermont Still Showery, Locally Stormy As Gulf Coast Keeps Getting Blown Away, Drowned

Sun, clouds, sprinkles and TONS of black flies. That
was the way it was in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard on Monday evening. It rained again later at night. 

UPDATE: 1 PM

It turns out some of the storms that do manage to form in northern and central Vermont could be a little rambunctious this afternoon and early evening.

There seems to be enough instability out there so that a small minority of the the thunderstorms could contain strong, gusty winds and torrential rain, 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of northern New York and northern New England, including the upper half of Vermont, under a marginal risk of severe storms. 

That's the lowest of a five point alert scale and indicates one per two towns in that alert zone could get a severe storm with damaging winds.

The vast majority of us should just see standard issue showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Do note that lightning is always dangerous even if the parent storm isn't extreme, so head indoors if you hear thunder. 

The best chances of strong to severe storms are just south of where skies have cleared. I would put that give or take near Route 2. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It's a rinse and repeat kinda day here in Vermont as more rounds of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder roll through once again. 

In once sense it's a typical May in the Green Mountain State, as temperatures have hovered fairly close to normal all month so far. Showers have been frequent, too, which is a pretty average state of affairs here.

On the other hands, it's been abnormal, too.  We usually get well defined spells of showery weather with periods of brilliant blue skies in between. Lately, those completely clear skies have been hard to come by. 

Sure, we've had nice enough days and maybe only a day or two has been a washout, but dawn to dusk sunshine has been non-existent since April 26.

Another weird thing is, despite all the showers, the month of May so far is actually a bit drier than average, at least in northern Vermont. Those showers have been on the light side. 

Through Monday. Burlington has collected 0.83 inches of rain, which is two-thirds of an inch on the light side for the month to date. Montpelier had an inch of rain this month through Monday, which is a third of an inch on the light side.  

Even with the slight lack of rain in the north, we are far, far, far from any drought worries. 

Southern Vermont has been doing better. Rutland and Bennington is running above average for rainfall so far this month. 

More showers are filling rain gauges a bit today. As far as heavier rain goes, it will be hit and miss. The showers today are riding roughly west to east along and a little south of a stalled front over southern Quebec. 

The few of us that get hit by two or three downpours will have a soaker. The rest of us, wet, but meh. 

The front will slowly sink southward today, giving almost everybody in the Green Mountain State an opportunity for showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder.  It'll get pretty warm in the south, as it will take awhile for the front to approach that area. A few spots in valleys along and south of Route 4 could make it to 80 degree today.  

Meanwhile, areas near the Canadian border will barely make it to 70.

For the rest of the week, through the weekend and probably into next week, this state of affairs will continue, with almost daily shower chances, and no extended periods of sunny weather in sight. Also, day long washout rains are also pretty unlikely. 

GULF COAST AWFULNESS

At least the showers and storms in Vermont have been gentle garden variety stuff. The Gulf Coast has been pummeled by repeated bouts of severe weather all spring. Over the past couple of weeks, it's only gotten worse.

Wave and wave of storms since last week have traveled from Texas through the Gulf Coast States to Florida. 

The storms caused intense flooding last week north of Houston after more than a foot of rain fell in those areas. Hundreds of people had to be rescued, including some from rooftops of inundated homes. 

Storms lashed the South again Friday, unleashing tornadoes and high winds. Tornadoes were especially destructive around Tallahassee, Florida and in parts of Alabama.

Fresh waves of intense storms again hit the zone from the Texas Gulf Coast to Florida again Monday, hitting Louisiana especially hard. A tornado touched down in Sulfur, Louisiana, and winds gusted to 80 mph in Lafayette. At least two people died in Monday's storms. 

Flash flooding was pretty widespread, too.

No rest for the weary down there, either. A new outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes seems likely Thursday and Friday. 

In areas hit by the most intense flooding, including parts of Texas and Louisiana where some rivers are still at major flood stage, torrential rains are set to hit by Thursday. Up to 10 inches of rain, locally more, are in the forecast there over the next seven days.  

Though severe storms and flooding often hit the Gulf Coast this time of year, it's very odd for the storms to be so persistent. 

 

"Backwards" Showers Complicate Vermont Mother's Day; Wetter Spell Ensues

Today's the third day in a row we're contending with "backwards" showers here in Vermont.

Shower clouds fighting with the sun over St. Albans,
Vermont Saturday. That's the pattern we've had all
month. It's the pattern we'll see on Mother's Day today,
and also what we'll see in much of the upcoming week.

They're moving generally east to west, instead of the usual opposite direction. Upper level low pressure kind of near Buffalo is pulling those showers westward.  

Like in past days, the closer you are to that sort of storm near Buffalo, the more likely it is to rain. 

Which is why Adirondacks have been wet the past few days, western Vermont has had hit and miss showers, and folks east of the Greens have been mostly dry. 

The upper low near Buffalo meant business: It spun off a tornado that struck a church occupied by 60 people in Finleyville, a town in western Pennsylvania. Only minor injuries were reported.  By the way, absolutely we'll see absolutely no severe weather from this thing here in Vermont. 

At least a lot of us had a clearing interval for that northern lights display Friday night, right?

MOTHERS DAY

You'll be dodging rain drops today. The showers are more numerous than they were the previous couple of days. 

Not everyone will get wet - they're still hit and miss - but there probably will be more hits than misses. Especially west of the Greens.

Some of you who get wet will get very wet. The showers are just inching along westward. I swear the most lethargic turtle in the world can outpace them.  If you get caught under a shower, it might last a good hour in spots.

The bottom line is, the rainiest places could get more than a half inch of rain, while places a dozen or fewer miles up the road from those soggy spots might end up staying dry. 

According to some climatology provided by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Mother's Day weather is usually on the iffy side for us.  A "normal" Vermont Mother's Day features highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s with at least a trace of rain on 60 percent of those days. 

Which means this year's iteration of Mother's Day is pretty typical. 

The National Weather Service notes that at least a trace of snow has fallen on five Mother's Days since 1914, the most recent being in 2020.

I'm happy to report it will NOT snow anywhere in Vermont today. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We'll revert back to the more general west to east flow of weather starting tomorrow.  The storm in the eastern Great Lakes will fade, replaced by a new system coming in from the west.  It'll push a sort of warm front through Monday night with some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder.

We're almost guaranteed some rain in at least parts of Vermont Tuesday, but I'm not sure if there will be a lot or a little. Some computer models push things through slowly, and allow a little warmth and humidity to build up.  If that happens, it would be far from oppressively warm, but we'd have lots of showers and scattered thunderstorms. There would be some heavy downpours. 

However, if things zip right on through, as some models indicate, it won't rain all that much. Stay tuned.

All month so far, we've been in a pattern that features lots of weak systems coming through with frequent but generally not dramatic showers, and temperatures that have been more or less close to normal for the season. 

That pattern looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future. It's hard to time out when the showers will come through and how heavy they might be over the next week or two. But we'll keep dodging raindrops here and there. 

And avoiding an early introduction to summer heat, something we've had in most springs in recent years. 

Wednesday Was Odd Weather Day Here In Vermont While Tornadoes Continue To Pummel Elsewhere

 It was quite a hit and miss day in Vermont Wednesday when, as expected, a few strong or at least strong-ish storms passed through a few areas.  

Storm clouds over St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday 
afternoon were all bark and no bite, but some areas
of the state had gusty thunderstorms with small hail.

During the afternoon, a front was draped across far northern Vermont. I noticed the temperature popped into the upper 60s in Burlington, while it stayed in the low to mid 50s less than 30 miles to the north in St. Albans.

That contrast, along with some pretty good instability in the air, helped create a couple waves of strong thunderstorms across northern Vermont, immediately to the south of the colder air dammed up along the Canadian border. 

The storms prompted the National Weather Service office in South Burlington to issue some special weather statements in Vermont and one severe thunderstorm warning in the Northeast Kingdom.

I don't see any damage reports but I'm sure some places saw some gusty winds and at least small hail.

Another storm crossed south central Vermont, again probably with gusty winds and small hail.  

As you'd expect, rainfall was hit and miss. The storms skirted just north of Burlington, so they only had a total of 0.08 inches of rain Wednesday. I'm sure towns other towns that got the storms closed in on a half inch of rain at least 

The afternoon started sunnier and warmer in southern New England so some storms there were indeed severe.  I saw several reports of quarter sized hail in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The forecast over the next few days in Vermont have trended somewhat drier, but there will be a chance of showers probably daily through next Tuesday at least.

However, none of these days look like a washout. Earlier forecasts has steady rain for most of the day Friday and possibly Sunday. Now it looks showery. 

It will all be hit and miss, but I doubt we'll have the kind of local downpours we saw Wednesday. It'll be on the cool side through the weekend, but nothing extreme for this time of year.  Highs will reach the 50s to near 60 daily today through Sunday, then trend somewhat warmer next week.  I don't see any frost in the forecast for the next week at least. 

TORNADOES CONTINUE 

At least 13 more tornadoes touched down Wednesday, mostly in Tennessee and Missouri, and I think more will be added to the list as National Weather Service meteorologists analyze damage swaths in the coming days.  

The tornado and severe storm threat rolls on today,
mostly in the south. Areas in yellow and 
especially orange are most at risk. 

This brings the total number of tornadoes in the United States to 89 since Monday. Through Tuesday, some 639 tornadoes had been reported in the U.S. so far this year, so we're ahead of normal. 

Sadly, three more deaths were reported in Wednesday's storms, though it's unclear whether all of victims died in tornadoes or severe thunderstorms. Seriously flash flooding also hit parts of Tennessee.

The southern storms continue to roll on this morning, 

Already, severe storms and likely tornadoes have been reported in and around Huntsville, Alabama overnight. People were being advised to avoid downtown Huntsville early this morning due to storm damage. 

Today, the tornado and severe thunderstorm threat will extend along a broad band from central Texas, across the Gulf Coast states all the way to the Carolinas. Already, as of 8 a.m. tornado watches were up for northern sections of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area. 

 

Wet Spring Weather To Continue In Vermont - Showery Regime Lives On

I guess we really did get lucky back on eclipse day April 8. 

The Winooski River level (blue line) is higher than
predicted levels (black line) due to yesterday's have rain.
Minor flood stage is in orange. It'll come close to
that today, but there won't be anything major going on. 

It was one of the few days this spring without rain or snow a without much in the way of clouds cover.

Though we've had some nice days, unsettled weather has predominated. Starting with the first full day of astronomical spring on March 20, I count only six days I could regard as mostly to completely sunny.  

This month, only the three days centered on the day of the eclipse were sunny.  

Don't expect any major changes in the near future. 

Friday's over-performing storm luckily didn't leave us with too much flooding. River levels are peaking higher than forecast, but so there's been nothing major. The Ottauquechee River was still at minor flood stage this morning. 

The Otter Creek was expected to crest just under flood stage, but it was in minor flood this morning. That should last a good part of today, though only the lowest lying roads nearby should have water on them.

The Winooski River in Essex Junction is getting a lot closer to flood stage than earlier predicted, but should stop just short of flood stage. Elsewhere, I noticed a part of Route 118 in Belvidere, was under water yesterday. I'm sure the same is true for a few more local roads out there. Take care if you're out driving. 

 RAINY OUTLOOK

Guess what? It's going to rain today. It could rain at any time, but best chances are this afternoon. Cold air aloft combined with the sun heating the ground through the clouds will create quite a few instability showers. 

It'll be mostly light, but a few spots could see briefly moderate to borderline heavy rain. Anything heavier would last only minutes in any given location. The rain today won't be nearly enough to cause any new flooding, so we're good there. 

Pretty much the same is true Sunday. A little storm will zip by, causing another round of showers in the afternoon.

The early part of the upcoming week looks OK. There might be some isolated showers Monday, but no biggie. A new storm brings us more rain Wednesday through at least Friday. So far, it doesn't look like that rain will be heavy. Just annoying for anyone with outdoor plans. 

Unless we get some surprisingly huge storms toward the end of the month, this by no means will be a record wet April.  But the frequent showers have been keeping us on our toes and will continue to do so. for awhile yet.  

Nuisance November Snow Continues To Pester Vermont

Snow started accumulating on our northwestern Vermont
property Monday afternoon, putting an end to what had
been a chilly but productive couple of hours of
outdoor work ahead of winter. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues a special weather statement early this morning, saying some roads especially at mid and high elevations, were getting snow covered a slippery from moderate snow showers roaming around the state. 

Even by mid-morning, I'm sure there's a couple slick spots out there. Nothing extreme, but definitely worth slowing down for. 

The snow showers should taper off by this afternoon, but it's another case of November nuisance snow we've seen this month. 

Maybe nuisance is too strong a word. Because it has led to some pretty scenes around the region, especially earlier this month when it accumulated on late season fall colors  - we call it snoliage. 

It started snowing again yesterday when I was trying to complete some late season chores out in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. I expected flurries, I instead got a solid few hours of steady snow, see video at the bottom of this post. It didn't amount to much, but it was enough to get in the way. 

I know it was just typical November weather, but I always seem to want to expect more than is reasonable. 

Today is also another one of those dark, dreary November days we've been talking about and enduring. It's even kind of foggy out there in a lot of spots to add to the gloom. It won't get any better as the day wears on. Most of us will stay in the 30s, though a few "lucky" spots get to 40 for a time this afternoon. 

It also seems like we've got a brief reprieve coming up for the rest of the week.  It'll warm into the 50s by Thursday, which is actually somewhat warmer than average for a change.  There could even be some periods of sun Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees, but the chance is there.

 A cold front comes in Friday or Friday night with some rain, then it's back to the sad gray overcast and chances of more flurries. 

Not sure on this one yet, but next Monday could be the coldest of the season so far. Early indications are some towns won't even make it above freezing that day.  Winter is rushing toward us, and the light snows of November we keep having are a sure sign of it.

Video:

Another light November snow interrupts an outdoor day of chores in St Albans, Vermont. Pretty, though. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: