Another Day Of 90 Degree Vermont Heat Wednesday; Possible Severe Weather Today, Then.... Ahhhhhhh!

Best chance of severe storms today is in northern
New England (yellow shaded area). Southern
Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and
there is an extremely low but not zero chance
of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday reached 93 degrees, making it the fifth time this month and the ninth this year so far in which it got into the 90s. 

We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.

In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.

I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010. 

There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that. 

But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year. 

We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June.   Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington. 

 On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six.  And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so. 

HEAT AND STORMS  

Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.

The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.

Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll  have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.

But there is a cold front coming our way.  That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine).  NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.

Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today. 

The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont.  But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.  

There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall. 

I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.

BIG RELIEF

When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.

The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed. 

The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief. 

 During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys. 

The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees.  That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity. 

A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

 If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington,  it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.

Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side.  It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.  

Vermont Still Showery, Locally Stormy As Gulf Coast Keeps Getting Blown Away, Drowned

Sun, clouds, sprinkles and TONS of black flies. That
was the way it was in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard on Monday evening. It rained again later at night. 

UPDATE: 1 PM

It turns out some of the storms that do manage to form in northern and central Vermont could be a little rambunctious this afternoon and early evening.

There seems to be enough instability out there so that a small minority of the the thunderstorms could contain strong, gusty winds and torrential rain, 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of northern New York and northern New England, including the upper half of Vermont, under a marginal risk of severe storms. 

That's the lowest of a five point alert scale and indicates one per two towns in that alert zone could get a severe storm with damaging winds.

The vast majority of us should just see standard issue showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Do note that lightning is always dangerous even if the parent storm isn't extreme, so head indoors if you hear thunder. 

The best chances of strong to severe storms are just south of where skies have cleared. I would put that give or take near Route 2. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It's a rinse and repeat kinda day here in Vermont as more rounds of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder roll through once again. 

In once sense it's a typical May in the Green Mountain State, as temperatures have hovered fairly close to normal all month so far. Showers have been frequent, too, which is a pretty average state of affairs here.

On the other hands, it's been abnormal, too.  We usually get well defined spells of showery weather with periods of brilliant blue skies in between. Lately, those completely clear skies have been hard to come by. 

Sure, we've had nice enough days and maybe only a day or two has been a washout, but dawn to dusk sunshine has been non-existent since April 26.

Another weird thing is, despite all the showers, the month of May so far is actually a bit drier than average, at least in northern Vermont. Those showers have been on the light side. 

Through Monday. Burlington has collected 0.83 inches of rain, which is two-thirds of an inch on the light side for the month to date. Montpelier had an inch of rain this month through Monday, which is a third of an inch on the light side.  

Even with the slight lack of rain in the north, we are far, far, far from any drought worries. 

Southern Vermont has been doing better. Rutland and Bennington is running above average for rainfall so far this month. 

More showers are filling rain gauges a bit today. As far as heavier rain goes, it will be hit and miss. The showers today are riding roughly west to east along and a little south of a stalled front over southern Quebec. 

The few of us that get hit by two or three downpours will have a soaker. The rest of us, wet, but meh. 

The front will slowly sink southward today, giving almost everybody in the Green Mountain State an opportunity for showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder.  It'll get pretty warm in the south, as it will take awhile for the front to approach that area. A few spots in valleys along and south of Route 4 could make it to 80 degree today.  

Meanwhile, areas near the Canadian border will barely make it to 70.

For the rest of the week, through the weekend and probably into next week, this state of affairs will continue, with almost daily shower chances, and no extended periods of sunny weather in sight. Also, day long washout rains are also pretty unlikely. 

GULF COAST AWFULNESS

At least the showers and storms in Vermont have been gentle garden variety stuff. The Gulf Coast has been pummeled by repeated bouts of severe weather all spring. Over the past couple of weeks, it's only gotten worse.

Wave and wave of storms since last week have traveled from Texas through the Gulf Coast States to Florida. 

The storms caused intense flooding last week north of Houston after more than a foot of rain fell in those areas. Hundreds of people had to be rescued, including some from rooftops of inundated homes. 

Storms lashed the South again Friday, unleashing tornadoes and high winds. Tornadoes were especially destructive around Tallahassee, Florida and in parts of Alabama.

Fresh waves of intense storms again hit the zone from the Texas Gulf Coast to Florida again Monday, hitting Louisiana especially hard. A tornado touched down in Sulfur, Louisiana, and winds gusted to 80 mph in Lafayette. At least two people died in Monday's storms. 

Flash flooding was pretty widespread, too.

No rest for the weary down there, either. A new outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes seems likely Thursday and Friday. 

In areas hit by the most intense flooding, including parts of Texas and Louisiana where some rivers are still at major flood stage, torrential rains are set to hit by Thursday. Up to 10 inches of rain, locally more, are in the forecast there over the next seven days.  

Though severe storms and flooding often hit the Gulf Coast this time of year, it's very odd for the storms to be so persistent. 

 

World In 2002 'Was 5th or 6th Hottest On Record, Depending On Who You Ask

Global trend in temperatures since 1880. See a trend?

Climatologists continue to crunch the numbers on the world's weather and climate for 2022, and it's becoming clear that the year was either the globe's fifth hottest or sixth hottest on record. 

On Thursday, NOAA ranked 2022 as the sixth hottest year on record. Meanwhile, other organizations, including NASA, Copernicus Climate Service of the European Union and Berkeley Earth, an environmental data science non-profit, said Earth had its fifth warmest year in 2022, the Washington Post reports. 

The difference in rankings stems from varying ways scientists measure the Earth's temperature. The differences between the two organizations are only at most a few hundredths of a degree.

According to NOAA' National Centers for Environmental Information, the new data means that all of the last nine years were the Earth's warmest on record and all the top 10 hottest years have occurred since 2010.  If you are under the age of 46, you have never seen a year on Earth that was cooler than the 20th century average. 

The latest count shows 28 nations set new records for warmest year in 2022. They're all over the place, too, not just one region. They include several European nations, China and New Zealand. 

Record breaking, deadly heat waves cropped up all over the world in 2022. Examples include India in March, Pakistan in April, much of western Europe and swaths of the United States, China an Japan in July and August and parts of South America in November and December.    

Additionally, 11 nations or territories broke or tied all time high temperatures. They are Paraguay, Australia, Uruguay, Vatican City, United Kingdom, Jersey, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Barbados, Dominica and the Falkland Islands. 

Extreme droughts and devastating floods hit many countries in 2022,with some nations, like Pakistan and the United States, suffering through both. Droughts and floods have always occurred, of course, but climate change accentuates them, making the disasters more intense than they otherwise would be. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Heat record fell last year despite the presence of La Nina, an episodic cooling of the ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The Earth's top several warmest years on record have occurred during El Nino events, when the tropical Pacific has been warm. La Nina is likely to fade this year, which could boost the planet's overall temperature and make weather around the world more extreme." 

The UK Met Office is already predicting that on a global basis, 2023 will be hotter than last year, since La Nina will be fading. If El Nino really takes charge, some scientists think 2024 might end up breaking the record for hottest year for Earth on record.