Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy!