Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Perfect Summer Vermont Weekend Continues; Deep Heat, Maybe Severe Storms By Tuesday, Tuesday Night

A beautiful blue sky with puffy clouds over St
Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was part of a near-
perfect weather weekend in the Green Mountain State.

 We're halfway through a perfect Vermont summer weekend, at least in terms of weather. 

On Saturday, the temperature was perfect. The humidity was perfect. The scattered puffy clouds were perfect. A pleasant north breeze was perfect. Wildfire smoke in the atmosphere almost entirely dissipated.  

It's been really warm lately, so by comparison, yesterday was actually the coolest day since June 27, at least as measured in Burlington. That "cool" weather involved a warm high of 82 degrees.

Enjoy it while you can. By Tuesday, things could get rough. More on that in a minute.

Meanwhile, if you somehow missed Saturday's weather, we'll do it again today. Details:

TODAY

We started the day with temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s in the cooler spots. If you didn't sleep well last night, don't blame the weather. It was a perfect summer sleeping night. There's that word again. Perfect. 

The only real difference today is it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. So, low to mid 80s. There might be a little more wildfire smoke in the atmosphere today, compared to yesterday. But it will amount to some haze at times.

Go out there and enjoy any outdoor activity you like. The only thing to watch out for is the sun. You'll need sunscreen.

MONDAY

Here's where the weather starts to go downhill. But just a little. Warm air from the west and south will start to flow in.  By afternoon, highs will get into the mid and upper 80s, maybe even flirting with 90 in the hottest valleys. The humidity will begin to creep up, but it will still be pretty reasonable. 

It should be mostly sunny, though a weak disturbance might touch off a few light showers, mostly in northern Vermont. But the chances of that are low. 

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT

This will be the real trouble day. The first problem will be the heat. We're calling it "jailbreak heat," a term I stole from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's "jailbreak"  because a piece of hot air will escape from a terribly torrid heat dome over the northern Rockies. That plume of hot air will be racing east across the far northern Plains, southern Canada and down across New England .

We'll start the day warm, and it will get hotter and hotter as the day goes on and the blast furnace air comes in from the west. 

By late afternoon, almost all of Vermont will be at least 90 degrees. The warmest valleys should make it into the mid-90s.  There's a slight chance that the warmest valleys could be in the 95 to 100 degree range, but statewide, 90 to 95 degrees looks like the safest bet. 

It'll turn more humid, too. But not as humid as in that heat wave that struck at the beginning of the month. The hot air won't have a direct connection to the steamy Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. But southwest winds will bring in some moisture. 

STORMS?

The next problem with Tuesday will come late in the day, most likely after dark.  A southward moving cold front making its way into the hot air into Quebec will encounter a lot of atmospheric instability.

It looks like a large chunk of southern Quebec faces a nasty severe storm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 

By late in the day, that activity will start to cross the border into northern New England, including areas of Vermont near the Canadian border. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction has areas north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5 risk, with maybe a greater risk of high winds. The  rest of the state in a marginal risk (level one out of five).

That's a preliminary forecast. For now, the storms look like they will cross the border from Quebec into Vermont after dark, when the storms would be losing the atmosphere's strongest instability. They might be starting to weaken by then.  But they would still be powerful. 

Or, the storms could show up earlier, when they would be stronger.

In any event, all this is potentially dangerous for the campers enjoying Vermont's forests. Especially if these storms hit at night, when people are sleeping in tents or flimsy RVs. Falling trees in this scenario are obviously dangerous. 

An example of how dangerous could be a 1995 derecho that swept through New York's Adirondack mountains, killing seven people. 

Tuesday night's weather is something we'll really have to keep an eye on. 

Ahhhhh! A Cool Vermont Morning To Be Followed By More Hot Weather

An approaching thunderstorm loomed over Frederick,
Maryland late Saturday afternoon. It dropped the 
temperature there from 102 to 77 within an hour,
Meanwhile, Vermont is enjoying some pleasant
low humidity now that the heat wave is over. 

Sorry for the late morning report. Still in Frederick, Maryland visiting and having a great time, which of course disrupts these reports. Oh well, no biggie.  

Yesterday, I endured my third day in a row of 102 degree temperatures.  No extended periods outside. We just hopped quickly from one air conditioned place to another. 

By yesterday afternoon, all lawns had been scorched brown by the blast furnace heat.  Day lilies had all wilted. Any hostas exposed to any sun burned to a crisp. 

We finally had relief late in the afternoon with a strong thunderstorm that dropped the temperature from 102 to 77 within an  hour. Frederick is expecting a high today of 93 degrees, which is better, I guess.

 So I was jealous when I saw that temperatures across Vermont fell into the 50s early this morning. There were even a few upper 40s in the cold spots.  Dew points, that measure of how humid it is, fell into the low 50s late yesterday and last night for most of us. That's even drier air than we were expecting just a couple days ago.

Also, a lot of that smoke that was expected dissipated over southern Quebec, so the smoke attack Vermont was expecting was something of a nothing burger. There's still hints of smoke and haze in the atmosphere today, but it's not bad at all.

TODAY

In Vermont, the weather is not staying cool for long. But at least it won't be as oppressively humid and hot as it was a few days ago. Under the sunshine today, highs will end up in the 80s.  The steamy air is gone for now, so it's another that should make it illegal to stay indoors. 

MONDAY

Holiday weekend is over, so it's back to work.  A weak but hellish little storm along a stalled cold front is unleashing flash floods on parts of the Mid-Atlantic States today and tomorrow. This thing will bulge moisture northward into Vermont, increasing the clouds and creating a rising risk of showers late in the south. 

TUESDAY

Our aforementioned storm will do its work in Vermont Tuesday, but don't worry: No flash floods. There's some questions over exactly how far this thing will come north. The further north it gets, the more rain everyone receives and the heavier it will be.

For now, it looks like a nice half to three quarter inch soaking in far souther Vermont, maybe a tenth to a quarter inch in central Vermont and sprinkles at best north of Route 2. Again, subject to change. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down Tuesday: Low to mid 70s south, 77 to 82 north.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY

Hotter again, and somewhat more humid. So yup, uncomfortable again. Highs will get into the 80s to near 90.  Showers and thunderstorms should start to creep in later Thursday. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: 

A cold front should spread showers and thunderstorms our way. It's way too soon to figure out how many showers and storms and whether they wold be.

LONG RANGE:

The weather pattern is shifting so that a persistent heat dome will set up over the West. That suggests that in the second and third weeks of July might well mean that New England will be the coolest place in the Lower 48. 

Not cold, mind you, just not hot. NOAA's forecast out to 14 days has the Northeast with near near normal temperatures while most of the rest of the U.S. trends hot.  

One More Really Hot Day In Vermont, Then It Gets (Slightly) Better

National Weather Service heat risk map for today 
calls for another day of severe to extreme heat in 
the eastern U.S. Purple shading is the most intense het.

The overnight low early this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 76 degrees, so there wasn't much overnight relief from the heat. 

No relief is forthcoming today, though there is at least a dim light at the end of the heat tunnel More on that in a bit. 

THE HEAT SO FAR

A tiny saving grace is the heat hasn't been quite as intense as expected in Vermont, with daily highs running a couple degrees lower than forecasts for the past couple of days. 

That's a contrast to pretty much everywhere in the eastern United States, where the heat has lived up to advance billing.    Yesterday, in Frederick, Maryland,  where I was visiting, I experienced the hottest weather I've ever been in, with a reading of 102 degrees.

In New York City, Central Park reached 100 degrees Friday, the first time it's gotten that hot since July 18. 2012, when it was also 100. Washington DC reached a record high of 102 degrees Friday. The same high temperature of 102 is predicted in Washington today and tomorrow, making Fourth of July celebrations downright dangerous. 

Here in Vermont, it reached 96 in Burlington Friday, short of the predicted peak of 100 degrees.

Montpelier reached 90, hot enough to tie the record high for the date.

So this heat wave hasn't turned out to be the historic Vermont heat wave some of us expected.  It's still hot and very humid. Dangerously so. That Vermont has been falling slightly short of predicted high temperatures doesn't reduce the risk.  The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it is on the human body. We're on day three today, so those that are vulnerable to the heat are having their worst day yet.

Today is a perfect day to kidnap your elderly or ill neighbors and take them to a cool place. 

Thunderstorms have been harassing Vermonters, too. Friday wasn't as wild as Thursday. But some pretty good, non-severe thunderstorms blew through parts of central Vermont in the evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington also issued a special weather statement for  a strong storm that clipped the Northeast Kingdom, but that storm quickly dissipated.

Let's get into the specifics of what's coming next. 

TODAY:

It will be almost as hot as yesterday. It really won't feel any different than yesterday. Most of the state will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s for highs in the Banana Belt hot valleys. 

Once again, because of the heat and the humidity, thunderstorms are a risk. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread or severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chance of strong storms being south and west of Interstate 89 today. In that location there's a marginal, (level one out of five risk)  for storms today. 

More storms and showers should be scattered about tonight ahead of a super weak cold front heading toward us. It will still be a horribly stuffy night.

SATURDAY

Some relief begins. The risk of showers and storms diminishes to nothing north during the morning, and that trend will drift southward during the day. More importantly, you'll start to notice a change in the air during the afternoon and evening. Especially north. It won't turn much less humid, but it will feel a little better. 

Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there. will start out near 70 in the morning, which is terribly steamy. By evening, the dew point will be in the OK but not great low 60s.

SUNDAY

The dew points will continue to drift a little lower by Saturday night and Sunday.  That means dawn will break Sunday with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 60, which will feel much better. 

Sunday should be a classic Vermont summer day, much like last Sunday was. That means highs in the 80s, a little warmer than average. Humidity will be reasonable. 

NEXT WEEK

Monday morning will start off cool and dry, with lows in the 50s to near 60, so pretty nice. The warmth and the humidity will creep up again. Some sort of disturbance looks like it will pass  through on Monday. Early indications suggest some heavy rain might fall on southern Vermont with much lighter stuff up north. 

It's an iffy little system, though, so we'll probable be some adjustments to the forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably Thursday  turn really warm and humid again, but not as bad as today. Still, warmer spots could touch 90 again midweek. 

Hot Vermont Day Led To Wild Night; Heat Is Back In Force Today

Lightning detector map from 10:15 last evening. 
White spots are new lightning strikes, red are older
The first line of storms is visible in eastern Vermont
and New Hampshire, with the second line in New York
Note that bright white area in northeast New York
That's the storm that gave the strobe light 
lightning show to northwest Vermont after 10 last night. 

First it was the heat, then the storms. 

It did get into them 90s for most of the area yesterday, but the heat underperformed slightly. We'll take anything we can get. For instance, Burlington got to 93, compared to a forecast high of 96

Then came the storms, which over-performed. 

Storms 

Things got wild in the late afternoon and evening. Severe storms approached from New York in the late afternoon, but faded right before they got to Vermont. Phew!

Not so fast. Storms exploded over the Champlain Valley and almost immediately become severe. That line of severe storms passed across all of northern and central Vermont, leaving a trail of damaged trees and power lines behind.  

The damage continued all the way east into New Hampshire. Here in the Green Mountain State, it  looks like Underhill/Cambridge was one of the hardest hit areas, with oodles of trees knocked down. Westford and Essex were also hard hit. 

Radar imagery showed what appeared to be 70 mph winds in the area.

But we were not done yet, nosiree! Another line of severe storms developed in New York and this one did not fade away.  There wasn't nearly as much damage this time, but what a light show! A storm that plowed into northwest Vermont between Burlington and St. Albans was basically a strobe light show, the lightning was so frequent. An early Fourth of July present from Ma Nature, apparently. 

The heat

We're only up to July 2, and we've already had five days this year that were at least 90 with more on the way as measured in Burlington 

Roughly half (60 of the past 127 years) have had fewer 90 degree days in an entire summer than what we've experienced so far this year.  It looks like we have at least two more 90 degree days coming up. 

Today will be the worst, with Friday a close second.

TODAY

The National Weather Service is back to forecasting a 100 degrees, which would only be the fifth time it  has gotten that hot in Burlington. Worse, with the humidity, the heat index could go as high as - gasp - 114 degrees. If that happens, it would be the worst heat index on record in Burlington, though those records only go back to 1947.

Needless to say, the extreme heat warning is still in effect across the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the lowlands of southwest Vermont. Elsewhere, the heat advisory for a "feels like" temperature of 100 to 105 is expected. 

Although thunderstorm chances are still there, those chances are a little lower than they were yesterday. But, with this extreme heat and humidity, they could pop up at any time and become strong. Today, the best chances of storms - severe or not - are closer to the Canadian border. But they could happen anywhere. 

FRIDAY

After another very stuffy night that won't give us much relief from the heat, temperatures will soar again. Hotter banana belt valleys, i.e. Champlain and Lower Connecticut, would probably make it into the mid 90s. Elsewhere, low 90s should do it most other places with the heat warnings and advisories still in place.

There's another chance of scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. Most of us won't get wet, but some of us will.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY

A slightly better chance of storms and showers Friday night and Saturday morning as the poorest excuse for a cold front I've ever seen comes into the picture. Highs should "only" be within a few degrees either side of 90 on Saturday. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Allegedly cooler, but you'll barely notice. Daily highs Sunday through Wednesday look to be well up in the 80s to near 90.  Lows will be in the 60s, so pretty stuffy nights will continue. 

If you've been keeping an eye out on your elderly neighbors, relatives and friends, you'll need to keep doing that next week. The effects of heat are cumulative. If people manage to get through today, tomorrow and Saturday, they still face elevated temperatures during the first half of the week.  Their systems will have been weakened by the intense heat, so relatively hot weather will still matter.

 

Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week. 

 

Q and A: Everything You Need To Know About This Big Heat Wave

AccuWeather released this map of the expected
maximum heat index temperature in the coming
days. 

Well, it's on. The Big American Heat Wave of 2026 is on in the Midwest and East. Maybe it will be one of several big ones this summer, maybe not. There's already been a bunch of hot weather elsewhere in the U.S. off and on. 

This one is getting a lot of attention across the nation, including here in Vermont. Following are answers to some FAQs about this heat wave. 

We get hot spells every summer. What makes this one so special?

True, there's big hot spells every year. But they are tending to generally get worse over the years as climate change continues. This particular one is getting extra attention because it's affecting so many people. At least 250 million people are under heat warnings or advisories at last check, according to AccuWeather. 

The heat is hitting the major media center in the East, so that captures the attention of news directors much more readily than something that might happen in the Plains or Rocky Mountains. It's also hitting during the Fourth of July weekend, when more people will be out and about, celebrating the holiday. 

Will this be the nation's worst heat wave ever, like the one recently in Europ?.

No, but it will be pretty bad. The European heat wave shattered all-time record highs in numerous cities and several countries in western and central Europe. 

This one in America will set records, but probably few if any all time records. Still, the forecasting heat is impressive. Dozens of daily record highs are threatened from Maine and Vermont south to North Carolina and west to Illinois. New York City is expecting its first 100 degree day in a decade. Highs in the 100s will extend fron New England to the Carolinas and through large swaths of the Midwest,

Many cities including some here in Vermont, might also have record high low temperatures, meaning those without air conditioning get little relief from the heat. 

Fourth Of July and the heat. Tell me why people are worried about that

Many people are out of their air conditioned homes and offices enjoying the holiday celebrations. They're out in the hot sun, not drinking enough liquids, drinking alcohol, generally not paying attention to their bodies. It's a recipe for heat stroke or heat related injuries. Also, when you're overheated, you aren't paying attention as much as you should, leading to the risk of injuries. With fireworks involved, this could mean some missing fingers or worse

OK, But I'm up here in Vermont, shouldn't we be immune from this kind of heat?

Often, we are. We're right next to Canada, after all, so it's easy for cold fronts to sweep in and keep the extreme heat and humidity in Florida and Louisiana, where it belongs. 

This time, the heat dome setting up in the East is sending Florida air all the way to Vermont. The air in terms of temperature will be as bad or worse than in Miami for at least a couple days.  The heat might taper off a bit toward the weekend and early next week, but not entirely go away. 

 OK, but how do I get used to this particular heat wave?

If you have air conditioning, use it, especially at night, despite the expense. A long heat wave lasting a few to several days can wear you out, leading to heat illnesses and other ailments. If you must work or exercise outdoors, do it at the crack of dawn when it is relatively cooler, compared to the rest of the day. 

Keep your fluid intake going all day.  Drink plenty of water, but not just water. Consume energy drinks, juices, watermelon, cucumbers, anything, "wet"  Have a nice "cold supper" instead of cooking and heating up the house. You know, cold meats, cheeses, vegetables, that sort of thing.  Try to avoid consuming alcohol, it ultimately makes the heat worse, even if it makes you forget about it a little.

What About my family?

Keep a close eye on the kids, so they don't get too hot. If you take the swimming anywhere, keep an eye on them constantly, even if there's lifeguards. Don't scroll on the phone to watch the latest makeover TikTok, please.  

In the car, run the air conditioning. When you stop to get out, even if the kids aren't with you, look in the back seat. That will get you in a habit to always look and get the kids out so they don't roast in the car. Every year we hear tragic stories of kids dying in hot cars. Don't let this be your kid.

Have the kids run around early the morning if they're up. Or later at night. Especially if your house does not have air conditioning, treat the kiddos to an air conditioned movie, museum or other such attraction. They'll love it and it will help their bodies recover from the heat. 

Should I worry about my dog during this heat wave?

Absolutely! Keep them in a cool place as much as you can. If you have air conditioning, encourage them little Roscoe to hang out there. They'll still need to go on walks to do their business and to sniff around. (That sniffing is very important for the health of a dog). Do the walks early in the evening before it gets hot. 

Don't let your dog walk on asphalt, concrete or other hard surface during the day. Those surfaces get wicked hot and can burn paws. 

What about Old Lady McCormick Next Door?

Check on her. A lot. Especially if she has no air conditioning, Heat can really take a toll on the elderly. In those big heat waves in Europe, most of the thousands of people who were killed were elderly. A heat wave similar to the upcoming one killed six elderly or disabled Vermonters. 

This is a stereotype, but I notice a lot of older Vermonters prize their independence and stubbornly refuse help. So lie to them. "I made way too much of this nice cold macaroni salad. I'd hate to see it go to waste."  Or, "I bought this nonrefundable ticket to the movies for tonight, but now my niece can't go. Why don't you go with us so we can use this ticket."

Just be extra nice to the elderly

Man, that neighbor of ours just mowed his lawn in this heat, and he looks awful! Should we do anything about it?

Yes, yes and double yes.

If he's headachy, nauseous, dizzy,  fatigued, weak, more irritable than usual, thirsty with heavy sweating, and his muscles are cramping up, he's probably got heat exhaustion. (Another symptom of heat exhaustion is decreased urine output, but you might not know that. 

Get him indoors to a cool place and encourage him to drink cool liquids (but not the glass of chardonnay you forgot to put down when you noticed Mr. Golf Course Lawn stumbling out there.  Take off his shoes and socks, even if they smell awful, and put cool, wet towels around his neck or elsewhere on his body. 

He also needs to go to the ER or Urgent Care to get checked out if symptoms don't improve within an hour. 

If your mowing buddy is confused, agitated, has slurred speech, nausea and vomiting, flushed skin, rapid breathing and a racing heart, chances are he's got heat stroke. This is a hair on fire emergency. Call 911 now if not sooner. 

Did climate change cause this?

Not really, but climber change probably made it worse than it otherwise would have been. There have always been heat waves and heat domes during the summer. What might have been a couple days near 90 degrees several decades ago has become a horrible excursion into the mid and upper 90s with near record high humidity levels. 

As I noted above, get used to it. Heat waves like this used to be really rare events. Now they're starting to get more common, so we'll be writing this Q and A a lot more in the future. 

Well, this all just sucks. When will it end?

It'll start to get better toward Saturday and Sunday, but "improvement" might be too optimistic a word. Temperatures toward Sunday and early next week will be in the 80s to maybe near 90, but not way up in the 90s. Humidity will still be high, but not as bad as it will be Wednesday to Friday. But still annoying.

As far as a big whoosh of cool, clear Canadian air, I don't see that happening anytime soon

 

Dangerous Heat, Humidity Blast Into Vermont Today For An Extended Stay, Severe Storm Threat Looms, Too.

Heat risk map for Thursday. Purple is extreme heat and dark 
red is major. It's rare to have so much purple in this
map, Note the flecks of purple here in Vermont. 

 We had one more nice, cool Vermont dawn today, with temperatures in the 50s as the sun broke over the Green Mountains. 

Yesterday was warm, for sure, but not humid, so the lack of moisture in the air let things col off overnight. 

Going through the next several days at least, you'll want to take it very easy, keep hydrated, and make sure your neighbors and relatives are OK. 

Let's get into the updated day by day outlook.

TODAY

The hot, humid air is at our doorstep, and will flood in today. The dew point, an indicator of how sticky the air feels, was in the comfortable 50s early this morning. Those dew points will be in the icky mid 60s to around 70 by late afternoon, and it will only get worse from there. 

Most of us will get into well into the 80s today with the hottest valleys maybe touching 90 degrees if it stays sunny enough. If it hits 90 in Burlington today, that would probably be the start of five consecutive days in the 90s. 

Heat waves that long or longer have only happened 16 times in Burlington since the late 1800s. 

The forecast for the increasing heat is certain, the forecast for thunderstorms is not. 

As we've noted the past few days, we'll be prone to batches of thunderstorms diving down from Ontario and Quebec. And since the air will be so hot and humid over the next few days, a few homegrown strong storms could pop up, too.

For now, as of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont under a slight risk, level two of five of severe storms today and tonight. They also have - once again - a low but not zero chance of a brief tornado, this time in northwest Vermont and northern New York 

This will get updated one way or another later this morning, as it's hard to predict the path and intensity of these packages of thunderstorms that will come through. Not only today and tonight, but through this heat wave. 

WEDNESDAY

The core of the heat wave arrives. Dawn will break muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. An extreme heat watch is in effect for the Champlain Valley, low elevations of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut valley Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening. That means the heat index is expected to be at or above 105 degrees during this spell. 

This will almost definitely be upgraded to an extreme heat warning soon. Such a heat warning only applies to heat indexes of 105 or above Since the rest of Vermont away from the hotter valleys will "only" see a heat index in the 100 to 105 degree range, they'll probably fall under a heat advisory soon. 

As far as actual temperatures, highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 90s, with the hotter readings in the warmer valleys. Dew points will rise to the mid 70s, which is fairly rare for Vermont. The weather tomorrow and Thursday will be typical for a Florida July. Or even worse than that.

Orlando, Florida yesterday had a mid -afternoon temperature of 92 with a dew point of 74. Mid-afternoon tomorrow in Burlington is forecast to bring a temperature of 95 and a dew point of 75.

Burlington will very likely have one of its top ten worst heat indexes on record, and has a slight chance of breaking the all time heat index record of 111.4 set on August 26, 1948. The forecast peak heat index for Wednesday is 109, which would place it at #3 in the top 10 list of worst heat indexes the city has seen, at least since they started keeping track of such things in 1947.

The one potential saving grace is if thunderstorms bring the temperature down. Or, thunderstorms that had broken up send clouds our way, which would mean slightly lower temperatures but no relief from teak humidity. 

Again, it's impossible to predict the timing and position of the most concentrated thunderstorms tomorrow but they could happen anytime. Some storms could be strong again. With all this humidity, thunderstorm rains would be torrential perhaps enough to set off a highly localized flash flood,

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More of the same with probably the most intense heat on Thursday. For now the National Weather Service is going for a high of 98 in Burlington and Springfield, and well into the 90s elsewhere. There is a chance we could see a 100 degree reading or two.

How about this for a break: Friday should be cooler than Thursday, with highs only in the low to mid 90s. And the steamy air will continue. 

Nighttime lows Wednesday through Friday will be in the low to mid 70s in most of state with the stuffy air in place, Those without air conditioning won't see any real nighttime relief. Keep a close eye on your  elderly or ill neighbors that don't have air conditioning. This is dangerous for them 

.The extreme humidity will continue both days. As will the chance of thunderstorms, some potentially strong and/or torrential. If the storms, or clouds from distant storms cover the sky in the afternoons, high temperatures will be a little cooler forecast. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Often, heat waves in Vermont end with a big whoosh of dry, cool, refreshing air straight from the friendly folks in central or northern Canada. That won't the case this time. 

Instead, temperatures will slowly drift downwards, Highs would still be near 90 on Saturday and in the mid and upper 80s Sunday and Monday. Humidity will stay high, too, but not quite as terrible as this week will be, 

But since the effects of heat waves accumulates in people as the days go by, this allegedly "cooler" air won't be enough to help people who endured the heat without air conditioning, You'll still want to make sure your elderly friends and neighbors are OK.  

 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.  

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Unprecedented Heat From March Still Has Climatologists, Others, Losing Sleep At Night, But It's All A Scary Sign Of The Times

March was so hot in the western and central U.S. was so
extreme it's still keeping climatologists up at night.
These kinds of "unprecedented" hot spells and 
extremes are now becoming regular occurrences
in this age of climate change. 

There's patches of record warmth remaining in the United States as we make our way through the first week of April, but the extreme, whackadoodle heat of March has subsided. 

Scientists are still agog from March, which is easily going down in history as among the most extreme, over the top, seemingly impossible climate-related events hot spells ever seen.  The heat wave completely rewrote the March weather record books in the western and central U.S. 

It was the kind of event that keeps climatologists up at night.  Especially since these "impossible" events are coming along in a steady stream now. Each one bigger than the last. And each one potentially more deadly. 

We're lucky this one hit in March, months before summer. Had it happened in July, who knows how many deaths would have been created by just the hot days themselves? Even so, the heat set the stage for a potential summer of out-of-control wildfires and deep water shortages. 

Already, fires are burning months before they should. A raging wildfire threatened homes in Moreno Valley , California last week. It was the kind of fire you see in parched late summer and early autumn and not moist March. But the rules have changed. March is the new summer, apparently.  

Nebraska just experienced their largest wildfires in history, burning an area larger than Rhode Island. 

And we've probably only just begun with the fires.

THE EXTREME MARCH HEAT

It's hard to know where even to begin with the accounting for March's heat. 

AccuWeather gives just a glimpse of the breadth of the March heat wave: 

 "During the unprecedented mid-March heat waves in the central and western United States, more than 8,200 daily records and more than 2,000 monthly records were broken at weather stations across the West."

Incredibly, 17 states set new March record highs.  And these are large western and central states, not smaller Eastern states where it's a bit easier to accumulate numerous record highs. Many of these states broke monthly record highs, only to have those records broken in subsequent days. 

The nation saw its hottest March temperature on record at 112 degrees. It came close to setting the April national record of 113 degrees.

No fewer than 16 western cities not only broke their all-time highs for the month of March, they also broke or tied the mark for April, which is beyond insane. 

On March 19 alone, nearly half of the 900 or so long term U.S.. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set or tied daily record highs. 

More than four dozen major reporting stations with data since at least the 1960s had their warmest March in history.  Major cities that had their warmest March on record, - most of them by a wide margin - include Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco. 

Once all the numbers are crunched, it looks like Colorado will end up with a March that was three or four degrees warmer than any other in the past 130 years or so. For a state to break its statewide record for hottest March by a degree is wild. By three degrees ----there's no words for it. 

We still don't have confirmation as to whether March, 2026, is the nation's hottest on record. That will come in a week or two. But it was at the very least as warm as what was considered the impossibly hot March of 2012.

CHAIN OF EXTREMES 

Climate change doesn't just warm up the world uniformly. It sets traps. Springs surprises. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes: 

"Since climate change is also fundamentally disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns, we now have mega-unprecedented extreme events occurring with regularity. These circulation changes allow the biggest regional and local heat extremes to intensify by a much larger margin than the roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius increase in average global temperature since preindustrial times."

Honestly, climate change contributes to new extremes every weeks, or so it seems. But the standouts - the weather events that make climatologists and other scientists deeply worry about the future  - seemed to begin almost exactly 14 years prior to this March's heat.

In March, 2012 most of the heat focused on the central and eastern United States.  Thousands of daily record highs were set, as were hundreds of all time record highs for March.  Among those thousands of record highs, nearly four dozen were broken by at least 22 degrees, which is beyond insane. Four record highs were smashed by 30 degrees. In a handful of cases, the low temperature on a particular date on March 12 was warmer than the record high.

 "An initial assessment led by Martin Hourlong at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories concede that human-produced warming likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude the heat woven March 12-23, 2012, The report added: "the probability of heat waves is growing as (greenhouse gas)-induced warming continues to progress," notes Yale Climate Connections. 

Still, we figured we wouldn't see another March, 2012 in our lifetimes again. Until we did.

The March heat of 2012 came at the tail end of a La Nina, and led to an extreme, punishing drought across the nation's middle that summer.  We're in the same situation now. It might not be just the western mountains that are running out of water. 

Much of the central and southern Plains are already in serious drought. Will this key crop growing area further dry out? There's already plenty of other stresses out there with food production - political instability, tariffs, war, a feckless president.  

We are set up for a rough summer, and March probably just made it much, much more rough. 

WATER SHORTAGES?

Colorado's snow pack ended the month at less than a quarter of average. Eighty-nine of 94 snow pack measuring stations were at record lows by the end of March. 

It's not just Colorado. It's virtually all of the West. Per the Guardian: 

'This year is on a whole other level.' say Dr. Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University climatologist, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. 'Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning."

On April 1, media went out to join California water officials to take a measurement of the water content of snow at a spot in the Sierra Nevada. Normally, the group would be standing on five feet of snow. This time, they were standing on a muddy field, flecked with melting remains of snow patches. 

Snow water equivalent is a measurement is the amount of water of that would melt out of the snow that's still on the ground.  This figure is now terrifying throughout the West. 

The overall snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada on April 1 was just 18 percent of average for this time of year.  In the Great Basin, snow water equivalent was just 16 percent of normal. In the lower Colorado River basin area, including most of Arizona and Nevada, it was 10 percent. The Rio Grande, which covers New Mexico, Texas and Colorado was at 8 percent. 

Because of a record warm winter, the snow pack was far below normal before March arrived. Everyone hoped for a "March Miracle," as some bad years in the past were relieved by cold, stormy Marches. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

If this were just one bad year, we'd be OK. But the six lowest April 1 snowpacks in California have happened since 2007. The state thought it was finally catching a break in January as it fully emerged from drought for the first time since in a quarter century. 

Reservoirs are pretty full in California, thanks to warm rains in recent winters that filled them even though the state couldn't build a decent snowpack. So at least for this year, the problem for most of that state would be intense wildfires but not necessarily widespread water shortages. 

Elsewhere, things are not nearly so serene. 

In the Colorado basin, Lake Mead is 25 percent full. Lake Powell was only 33 percent or so full at last check. Both lakes usually rise somewhat in the spring due to snow melt. It doesn't look like that's really happening this year. 

Water managers area already urging conservation in the West. 

Salt Lake City has called on residents and businesses to start conserving now, with a goal of cutting overall water usage by 10 percent, Also, as the Guardian reports:

"Across Colorado, there are local orders that list lawn watering, and in Wyoming, residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come come as early as May."

Farmers and ranchers across the West are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained. 

TIMING

What if a heat dome like the one we just saw in March hit during the middle of summer? And hit in a place not accustomed to extreme heat. 

We found out in late June and early July, 2021 when an unprecedented - here's that word again - intense, heat settled into southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

 All-time heat records in the Pacific Northwest were not just broken, they were obliterated. Portland Oregon reached 116 degrees. Salem, Oregon was 117 degrees. Rainy, cool Seattle reached 108 degrees.

The heat of 2021 was even more punishing in British Columbia, Canada. On June 29, 2021, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Canada. By a long shot. Before this heat wave, the hottest it had gotten anywhere in Canada was 113 degrees back in the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. 

The next day, Lytton burned down in a massive wildfire brought on by the scorching heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave is estimated to have caused at least 1,400 deaths in Canada and the U.S. 

What if a heat dome like that in 2021 settled into the heavily populated eastern United States and southeastern Canada? And what if it lasted a month, not a week? Nobody is prepared for such a nightmare. 

However, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps this summer. Or the next. And it won't be pretty.