Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week. 

 

Historic Northeast Blizzard Set To Strike; Some Vermont Forecast Adjustments

Predicted accumulations of snow with this nor'easter.
Since this map was made, projections have 
been bumped westward a bit, so the strip from 
eastern Pennsylvania through eastern Vermont
could easily get a bit more than projected here.
Click on map to make it bigger and
easier to read. 

 Well, this will be an impressive storm. 

Maybe not for everybody here in Vermont, but for large swaths of the Northeast, where a full-blown blizzard is likely in some areas from New Jersey to Maine. 

Up here in Vermont, we're definitely not in the crosshairs of this storm. However, there's been a few forecast adjustments, especially for southeastern Vermont. I'll get into that further down in this post. 

Depending upon where the heaviest snow bands set up, a few cities in eastern New England could see their largest snowstorm on record.  

We're already seeing some comparisons to the famed Blizzard of '78, though coastal storm surge destruction will be much, much less than that extreme New England disaster in 1978

However much snow Boston and other areas receive out of this, the snow will be tough to measure. Rare blizzard warnings are now posted for coastal New Jersey and along the east coasts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire and southern Maine. 

I'm pretty sure blizzard warnings will be expanded to some other areas of the Northeast as well. 

In Boston, this is the first blizzard warning since March, 2018. Winds along the New England coast could gust to 75 mph. 

This will be a cold storm for areas under blizzard and winter storm warnings. Frigid air from places like, well, here in Vermont will get sucked into the storm, dropping temperatures into the teens and low 20s during the height of the storm. 

This will create an especially powdery snow which will blow around easily.  Anyone in the blizzard and winter storm warning zone should just hunker down at home Saturday and not venture out.  The zero visibility, snowfall rates in some areas of three to four inches per hour and the howling winds will almost certainly get you trapped in frigid conditions if you're out walking or in your car. 

It'll be interesting to see where the heaviest snow will set up.  There's almost always an especially heavy band of snow to the northwest of a nor'easter's center, and this will be no exception.  Somewhere in eastern New England, there could be a narrow band of up to three feet of snow, with as little as a foot in lull areas either side of that band.

The storm certainly has enough dynamics and moisture to work with. It'll get some added energy from warmer than normal water temperatures off the New England coast. The National Weather Service in Boston is describing this as a "fire hose" of moisture off the Atlantic.  

Fingers crossed, but the storm surge flooding might not be all that extreme. The worst of the storm surge in New England is expected to come Saturday afternoon, near low tide.  That will minimize destruction, but there still will be erosion, some flooding and battering waves.

Luckily, the storm will be moving right along, so it will be over for New England, except perhaps northeastern Maine, by Sunday. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

The forecast track of the storm seems to be drifting a little further west with each forecast cycle, so we'll see a little more oomph than original thought, especially in the southeastern corner of Vermont. It still looks like little or no snow in the northwestern part of the state, unless there's a big surprise. 

Whatever happens,  Saturday is NOT going to be a nice day anywhere in Vermont, even as we avoid the worst of the storm.  

Winter storm severity index. Click on map to make it
 bigger and easier to see.  Areas in red depict
major, damaging impacts. Subtle purple areas in
map are small areas of extreme expecred impacts

The latest in a long series of Arctic cold fronts is moving through Vermont this morning.  A few snow showers are drifting down, but they won't amount to too much. I can see a few places getting an inch or even two this morning, but most areas should see a half inch or less.

 As of 8:15 a.m. it's snowing lightly but at a decent clip, and we have a half inch new here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Of course the latest brief blip of mild-ish air will quickly flush out today. Temperatures in the 20s today will crash into the single numbers this afternoon and back below zero for most of us tonight. The winds will continue. 

Then the storm will approach.  Forecasters have expanded a winter storm watch - not a warning, at least not yet - in New Hampshire all the way to the Connecticut River, and in Windham County, Vermont. This is  down around Brattleboro, Newfane, that neck of the woods.

If the more westward track holds, these areas along the Connecticut river and in far southeastern Vermont could easily receive a half foot of badly windblown snow.  It's still a bit of a question mark, but the chances of that type of impact there seem to be rising.

Depending upon the track and intensity of the nor'easter, some light snow might battle its way as far west as Rutland County, and along the spine of the Green Mountains all the way to Route 2, or perhaps even the Canadian border. 

Since the storm will be heading due north, the cut off of snow versus no snow in Vermont could largely be north-south instead of on a southwest to northeast orientation as per usual.  If the north-south orientation takes shape, parts of the Northeast Kingdom could squeeze out a few inches of snow fro this. 

In any event, the storm's attempt at light snow in Vermont will be battling very dry air draining south from Quebec so that bit of snow might not win the battle. The bottom line is, unless there's more surprises, like a firmer westward jog in the storm track, snow outside the southeast corner of Vermont does look lame at best.

We'll still be in the wind envelope of the storm, though, so north winds will gust to 40 mph in some areas as temperatures stay in the single numbers under an overcast sky. A nasty day indeed.

Looking further ahead, that promised thaw later in the week now has an iffy character at least in northern Vermont.  Conditions Thursday and Friday in the Green Mountain State could get "interesting" and troublesome late next week, but let's just set that aside for now and get through this nor'easter.

As You'd Expect, Many Records Smashed In Historic Cold Blast

A map showing temperature departures from normal
on the morning of February 16. Pink in the middle is 
more than 30 degrees colder than normal.

Record cold and record warm temperatures happen virtually every day and cities and towns across the nation. 

Last week was really in once in a blue moon territory, though. 

It's extremely rare to have so many records broken in so many places by so much in just one week.  

The hype about last week's cold wave being historic in many parts of the nation is not hyperbole. It's true. 

During that cold spell at least through February 18, there were no fewer than 2,290 daily record lows set in the nation. Also 3,499 records were set for lowest daily maximum temperatures set.

Even more impressively, 85 cities in towns in the United States set all-time record lows for any date. And 270 places had lowest temperatures for the month of February. 

According to The Weather Channel, some of the towns and cities experiencing all time record lows include Bottineau, North Dakota,  (-51); Owen, Wisconsin (-45); Spearfish, South Dakota (-33); Sioux City, Iowa (-28); Lawton, Oklahoma, (-12) and Tyler, Texas (-6). 

 If you add up all the weather stations in Oklahoma, February 18 ended up being the coldest day on record for the entire state and the first day with a mean statewide temperature below zero - the average was -0.4 degrees that day. 

Little Rock, Arkansas got below zero for the first time since 1989. That city has also had its snowiest month on record, with 20.3 inches. All of that snow came within a week.

Dallas, Texas endured its fifth longest streak on record where the temperature continuously stayed below freezing. 

This was also the first time on record that the National Weather Service office in Houston, Texas saw fit to issue a wind chill warning. 

Records and near-records were also set for the length of the cold, notes the Weather Channel. Oklahoma City spend a week at or below 20 degrees, which is a record. Note their normal low temperature this time of year is 34 degrees.

Wichita, Kansas spend 10 straight days under 20 degrees and Kansas city went 11 straight days at or below 15 degrees. 

A lot of these records you're reading about were compiled by meteorologist Alex Lamars, who has a great thread on the records on his Twitter page, @AlexJLamars.

Other records Lamars compiled involve snow. Abilene, Texas has its biggest snowstorm on record 14.8 inches. 

Even areas outside the core of the cold set records for snow.  Salt Lake City had its snowiest February day on record with 11.7 inches. 

Seattle, with 11.1 inches had its biggest snowstorm since 1972.  Portland Oregon, 9.4 inches had its biggest snowstorm since 1968. Boise, Idaho, 9.9 inches had its biggest dump since 1996. 

It had been a mild winter before this, so there wasn't much ice on Lake Superior as the cold wave began. When the cold blast hit, the lake effect flood gates opened up.

The result was a dump of snow near Thompson in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, which got 46.5 inches of snow in less than 36 hours. 

For us Vermonters, we missed out on the action, which of course is a good thing. I'm not aware of any record temperatures or snowfall around here. During this event, our temperatures ran a little cooler than normal but nothing earth shattering. During this time, snowfall was about normal. 

We really dodged that bullet!