Unprecedented Heat From March Still Has Climatologists, Others, Losing Sleep At Night, But It's All A Scary Sign Of The Times

March was so hot in the western and central U.S. was so
extreme it's still keeping climatologists up at night.
These kinds of "unprecedented" hot spells and 
extremes are now becoming regular occurrences
in this age of climate change. 

There's patches of record warmth remaining in the United States as we make our way through the first week of April, but the extreme, whackadoodle heat of March has subsided. 

Scientists are still agog from March, which is easily going down in history as among the most extreme, over the top, seemingly impossible climate-related events hot spells ever seen.  The heat wave completely rewrote the March weather record books in the western and central U.S. 

It was the kind of event that keeps climatologists up at night.  Especially since these "impossible" events are coming along in a steady stream now. Each one bigger than the last. And each one potentially more deadly. 

We're lucky this one hit in March, months before summer. Had it happened in July, who knows how many deaths would have been created by just the hot days themselves? Even so, the heat set the stage for a potential summer of out-of-control wildfires and deep water shortages. 

Already, fires are burning months before they should. A raging wildfire threatened homes in Moreno Valley , California last week. It was the kind of fire you see in parched late summer and early autumn and not moist March. But the rules have changed. March is the new summer, apparently.  

Nebraska just experienced their largest wildfires in history, burning an area larger than Rhode Island. 

And we've probably only just begun with the fires.

THE EXTREME MARCH HEAT

It's hard to know where even to begin with the accounting for March's heat. 

AccuWeather gives just a glimpse of the breadth of the March heat wave: 

 "During the unprecedented mid-March heat waves in the central and western United States, more than 8,200 daily records and more than 2,000 monthly records were broken at weather stations across the West."

Incredibly, 17 states set new March record highs.  And these are large western and central states, not smaller Eastern states where it's a bit easier to accumulate numerous record highs. Many of these states broke monthly record highs, only to have those records broken in subsequent days. 

The nation saw its hottest March temperature on record at 112 degrees. It came close to setting the April national record of 113 degrees.

No fewer than 16 western cities not only broke their all-time highs for the month of March, they also broke or tied the mark for April, which is beyond insane. 

On March 19 alone, nearly half of the 900 or so long term U.S.. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set or tied daily record highs. 

More than four dozen major reporting stations with data since at least the 1960s had their warmest March in history.  Major cities that had their warmest March on record, - most of them by a wide margin - include Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco. 

Once all the numbers are crunched, it looks like Colorado will end up with a March that was three or four degrees warmer than any other in the past 130 years or so. For a state to break its statewide record for hottest March by a degree is wild. By three degrees ----there's no words for it. 

We still don't have confirmation as to whether March, 2026, is the nation's hottest on record. That will come in a week or two. But it was at the very least as warm as what was considered the impossibly hot March of 2012.

CHAIN OF EXTREMES 

Climate change doesn't just warm up the world uniformly. It sets traps. Springs surprises. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes: 

"Since climate change is also fundamentally disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns, we now have mega-unprecedented extreme events occurring with regularity. These circulation changes allow the biggest regional and local heat extremes to intensify by a much larger margin than the roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius increase in average global temperature since preindustrial times."

Honestly, climate change contributes to new extremes every weeks, or so it seems. But the standouts - the weather events that make climatologists and other scientists deeply worry about the future  - seemed to begin almost exactly 14 years prior to this March's heat.

In March, 2012 most of the heat focused on the central and eastern United States.  Thousands of daily record highs were set, as were hundreds of all time record highs for March.  Among those thousands of record highs, nearly four dozen were broken by at least 22 degrees, which is beyond insane. Four record highs were smashed by 30 degrees. In a handful of cases, the low temperature on a particular date on March 12 was warmer than the record high.

 "An initial assessment led by Martin Hourlong at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories concede that human-produced warming likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude the heat woven March 12-23, 2012, The report added: "the probability of heat waves is growing as (greenhouse gas)-induced warming continues to progress," notes Yale Climate Connections. 

Still, we figured we wouldn't see another March, 2012 in our lifetimes again. Until we did.

The March heat of 2012 came at the tail end of a La Nina, and led to an extreme, punishing drought across the nation's middle that summer.  We're in the same situation now. It might not be just the western mountains that are running out of water. 

Much of the central and southern Plains are already in serious drought. Will this key crop growing area further dry out? There's already plenty of other stresses out there with food production - political instability, tariffs, war, a feckless president.  

We are set up for a rough summer, and March probably just made it much, much more rough. 

WATER SHORTAGES?

Colorado's snow pack ended the month at less than a quarter of average. Eighty-nine of 94 snow pack measuring stations were at record lows by the end of March. 

It's not just Colorado. It's virtually all of the West. Per the Guardian: 

'This year is on a whole other level.' say Dr. Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University climatologist, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. 'Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning."

On April 1, media went out to join California water officials to take a measurement of the water content of snow at a spot in the Sierra Nevada. Normally, the group would be standing on five feet of snow. This time, they were standing on a muddy field, flecked with melting remains of snow patches. 

Snow water equivalent is a measurement is the amount of water of that would melt out of the snow that's still on the ground.  This figure is now terrifying throughout the West. 

The overall snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada on April 1 was just 18 percent of average for this time of year.  In the Great Basin, snow water equivalent was just 16 percent of normal. In the lower Colorado River basin area, including most of Arizona and Nevada, it was 10 percent. The Rio Grande, which covers New Mexico, Texas and Colorado was at 8 percent. 

Because of a record warm winter, the snow pack was far below normal before March arrived. Everyone hoped for a "March Miracle," as some bad years in the past were relieved by cold, stormy Marches. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

If this were just one bad year, we'd be OK. But the six lowest April 1 snowpacks in California have happened since 2007. The state thought it was finally catching a break in January as it fully emerged from drought for the first time since in a quarter century. 

Reservoirs are pretty full in California, thanks to warm rains in recent winters that filled them even though the state couldn't build a decent snowpack. So at least for this year, the problem for most of that state would be intense wildfires but not necessarily widespread water shortages. 

Elsewhere, things are not nearly so serene. 

In the Colorado basin, Lake Mead is 25 percent full. Lake Powell was only 33 percent or so full at last check. Both lakes usually rise somewhat in the spring due to snow melt. It doesn't look like that's really happening this year. 

Water managers area already urging conservation in the West. 

Salt Lake City has called on residents and businesses to start conserving now, with a goal of cutting overall water usage by 10 percent, Also, as the Guardian reports:

"Across Colorado, there are local orders that list lawn watering, and in Wyoming, residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come come as early as May."

Farmers and ranchers across the West are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained. 

TIMING

What if a heat dome like the one we just saw in March hit during the middle of summer? And hit in a place not accustomed to extreme heat. 

We found out in late June and early July, 2021 when an unprecedented - here's that word again - intense, heat settled into southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

 All-time heat records in the Pacific Northwest were not just broken, they were obliterated. Portland Oregon reached 116 degrees. Salem, Oregon was 117 degrees. Rainy, cool Seattle reached 108 degrees.

The heat of 2021 was even more punishing in British Columbia, Canada. On June 29, 2021, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Canada. By a long shot. Before this heat wave, the hottest it had gotten anywhere in Canada was 113 degrees back in the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. 

The next day, Lytton burned down in a massive wildfire brought on by the scorching heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave is estimated to have caused at least 1,400 deaths in Canada and the U.S. 

What if a heat dome like that in 2021 settled into the heavily populated eastern United States and southeastern Canada? And what if it lasted a month, not a week? Nobody is prepared for such a nightmare. 

However, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps this summer. Or the next. And it won't be pretty. 

 

High Temperature Records Absolutely Obliterated In Vermont, New York, Elsewhere In Northeast

The landscape today said late autumn. But the air in
Vermont said midsummer as high temperature
records were absolutely shattered in the region. 

 The Halloween heat wave today more than lived up to its hype today, shattering records as those readings rose to unprecedented end of October levels.  

Final figures weren't in yet as I was writing this around 5:30 p.m. today. But the temperatures I've seen so far are insane. 

The wildest report came out of Plattsburgh, New York, where it got to at least 83 degrees today. That was a whopping 11 degrees above the old record for the date. 

It was also 30 degrees warmer than the normal high for this date in Plattsburgh, and a couple degrees warmer than an average mid-July day.

In Burlington, it got to at least 77, making today the warmest day for so late in the season. The low this morning in Burlington was 64 degrees, and it's unlikely to get cooler than that by midnight. So that will break the old record for warmest low temperature by a full five degrees. Today in Burlington averaged out exactly normal for June 29. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got to at least 75 degrees, breaking the record for the date by five degrees. 

St. Johnsbury got to at least 76, Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from White River Junction, reported 81 degrees at midafternoon. Other midafternoon temperatures include 79 at Springfield, Vermont and 78 in Bennington. 

It's going to be a summery evening for the trick or treaters now starting to haunt Vermont neighborhoods. You might want to bring some water, as the kiddos will probably work up a sweat in this weather trying to get their candy haul.

I'll have updates to these incredible temperatures in a post tomorrow morning. I'll also get into how October as a whole stacked up compared to normal. Spoiler: It was toasty. 

Dubai/UAE Pounded By Unprecedented Rains; Prompts Cloud Seeding Questions

 The glittering dry, desert city of Dubai isn't so dry anymore.

In one day this week, Dubai had as much rain as it
normally has in about a year and a half. The desert 
location was socked by extreme downpours. 

A storm dumped about 5.6 inches of rain on Dubai in just 24 hours.  What makes that especially remarkable an entire year there normally features just 3.7 inches of rain.  

One report indicated about ten inches of rain, which would be more than double what usually falls over the course of two years. 

It's super rare for any spot to have a year's worth of rain in a day, never mind two years. 

The result was unsurprisingly chaos, as video showed planes splashing through floodwaters at Dubai International Airport and dozens of cars drowned in water beneath the city's gleaming skyscrapers. 

The flooding turned tragic in neighboring Oman, where 19 people have been killed amid heavy rain and flooding over the past few days. The deaths included 10 children and an adult swept away in a vehicle, the Associated Press reported. 

There's controversy in this, too, as the Associated Press reported:

"Several reports quoted meteorologists at the National Center for Meteorology as saying they flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights before the rains. Flight-tracking analyzed by The Associated Press showed one aircraft affiliated with the UAE's cloud-seeding efforts flew around the country Monday."

UAE has been conducting cloud seeding to enhance rainfall. Groundwater is dwindling in the region. However, the UAE has not commented on whether there was any cloud seeding going on as this storm loomed.

Cloud seeding - something that's been around for decades - involves injecting silver iodide into clouds that have plenty of water vapor. The silver iodide encourages ice crystal formation, which promotes additional rain and snow. 

Many experts question whether the cloud seeding - if it did happen - contributed much to the disaster. Research does indicate cloud seeding does increase precipitation under certain circumstances, but the added precipitation caused by the practice tends not to create a huge amount of excessive precipitation, as the Washington Post notes.

The weather pattern over Dubai was unusual, and that certainly was the major contributor to the downpours. 

A slow moving trough of low pressure moved into the region this week, drawing huge amounts of moisture toward the UAE, setting the stage for downpours. 

As meteorologist Jeff Berardelli explained on X (formerly Twitter), the storm also ingested a large amount of dust.  That dust can also be a cloud seeder, coalescing bits of moisture into a multitude of rain drops. 

We don't yet know whether climate change made this worse or had any influence at all. But in general, climate change does make storms more intense, and rainfall more torrential in many storms.   

As the Washington Post reports, Friederike Otto, a climate scientist with Imperial College London said ie makes sense that climate change could have made the Dubai/UAE storm worse than it otherwise might have been. 

She noted that climate change is producing heavier rainstorms worldwide because warmer air can hold more moisture. "Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change," Otto said 

 

The Nation's Weather Is Wayyyy Off The Rails. Again. Details Here

Extremely rare snow on the coast of northern California
at the Carson Mansion in Eureka.
Photo via Twitter by Kenneth Pinkham. 

 The weather here in Vermont lately in the grand scheme of things was only moderately interesting this week.

 In many other places around the United States, it was off the charts wild. It makes Vermont look like the calmest oasis in the world. 

Temperatures in the nation Thursday ranged a whopping 137 degrees, from 35 degrees in Lyman, Wyoming to 102 in Falcon Lake, Texas. 

Plenty of areas are seeing weather not seen in decades or ever.  Let's go over the highlight reel. 

CALIFORNIA/WEST COAST

In sunny southern California, it's neither sunny, nor warm.  They're bracing for an epic, very oddly cold storm, the worst of which is sweeping in today and Saturday.

Up and down the California, high elevation highways are already closed, including the notorious Grapevine, which is busy stretch of Interstate 5 between Los Angeles County and the San Joaquin Valley. 

The high elevation stretch of the Grapevine sometimes gets shut down in the winter by snow, especially along a small section whose elevation rises to 4,000 feet.   This time, though, it's expected to be much worse up there since snow levels are expected to fall below 2,000 feet, which encompasses much more of the highway 

The Grapevine section of I-5 closed at 1:30 Friday morning, and officials have no idea when it will re-open. It was snowing hard at the 3,800 foot level of Interstate 5 this morning. 

Some snow, small hail and ice pellets have already pinged down in areas of southern California that haven't seen frozen precipitation in a decade or more. School children in Pasadena rushed outside to enjoy the spectacle of pea sized hail. 

A little snow dusted the famous Hollywood sign in L.A. early this morning. Even more snow might accumulate around that sign Friday night or early Saturday.

The cold storm is also volatile. The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles issued its first tornado warning in three years Friday morning. It was for an area southwest of Santa Maria. As of this writing, it's unknown if a tornado actually touched down. 

Several normally balmy California cities had record low high temperatures Thursday. These included 52 in Palm Springs, 54 in Newport Beach and 57 in Anaheim. Los Angeles also had a record low minimum of 41 degrees Thursday. We've had low temperatures at that level a couple times this winter in Vermont. 

Incredibly, a blizzard warning is up for mountains in Los Angeles County. (These mountains are as high as 8 to 9 thousand feet).

I was mistaken the other day.  This isn't the first time the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has issued a blizzard warning for its forecast area. It's the second. But Thursday evening, the National Weather Service office in San Diego issued its first ever blizzard warning for the San Bernardino mountains northeast of the city. 

The lowest elevations in southern California are seeing heavy rain.  People have already been evacuated from portions of Ventura County as the rains are expected to cause flash floods, mudslides and debris flows. 

Further north, snow fell on the East Bay hills near San Francisco for the first time in gawd knows how many years. Higher elevations in those hills could see even  heavier snow tonight. Snow levels early today in the area were as low as 700 feet. Most areas in the Bay Area had rain, with embedded thunderstorms, hail and sleet.  

Rare snow also fell at the famed Hearst Castle in San Simeon, California. The castle is no more than 1,000 feet from the Pacific Ocean beach on a hill about half way between San Francisco and Los Angeles. 

Portland Oregon unexpectedly received 10.8 inches of snow Wednesday night, its second largest snowstorm on record.  "Worst case scenario" forecasts ahead of that storm only called for two inches at most. The surprise storm hit during rush hour, and people were stranded on snow clogged roads around Portland for seven hours or more. 

With clear skies and snow on the ground, Portland also reached a record low of 25 degrees Thursday morning. 

Further south, KTVU reported an inch or two of snow in Woodside, California, near Alice's restaurant. That area gets snow on average perhaps once a decade.

Several record lows were set out west, including 11 below in Denver and 13 below in Boulder, Colorado. Rawlins, Wyoming dipped to 25 below, exceeding the previous record low by a full 10 degrees. 

SOUTHEASTERN HEAT

While the West Coast shivered, it was summertime this week in the southeastern quarter of the United States. 

While some cold records are being broken in the West, the Southeast onslaught of record heat is absolutely astounding. 

Amazingly early blossoms this week in 
Washington DC. Photo via Twitter 
by Brad Herson

I don't know where to begin with all the heat records broken, especially Wednesday and Thursday. 

On Wednesday, Atlanta reached its all time high for the month of February at 81 degrees. Thursday, the low temperature in Atlanta was 69 degrees, the warmest low for any date in any February. That low temperature is about normal in Atlanta toward the end of June. 

According to @extremetemps on Twitter , also known by his real name Maximiliano Herrera, this was  "the harshest winter heat wave in history." He backs that up with a litany of all time new February record high temperatures:  

 During Thursday afternoon, most of North Carolina was in the low to mid 80s while one town in the state reached 87 degrees. Pensacola Florida reached 83 degrees for a new February high temperature. 

The heat extended down into Cuba, where Santa Lucia reached 95. That exceeded both the record for the months of February and January. Havana, Cuba, was close behind with an all-time February high this week of 94 degrees. 

The all-time heat records also expanded westward to Mississippi and Alabama.  All time February record highs were set in these Mississippi cities. Columbia (88); Tupelo (87) Laurel (86); and in Alabama, Muscle Shoals (86) and Haleyville (82)  

Nashville, Tennessee, also reached its all-time February high of 85 degrees. Previously, the earliest it had ever been 85 degrees in Nashville was on March 12, 1967.

Thursday, the temperature at Reagan National Airport in Washington DC zoomed up from 68 degrees to 81 degrees between 2 and 3 p.m Thursday. 

Magnolias are already blooming in front of the White House. Green leaves popped open as far north as Philadelphia. 

More ominously, peach and other crops are blooming in the Southeast, weeks prematurely. It will only take one powerful, but seasonable cold front in March to wipe out as much as  $1 billion in crops.  

This is a similar or even worse set up than 2017. That year, another warm February led to a winter storm in March  that killed 85 percent of South Carolina's peach crop and 80 percent of Georgia's blueberry harvest. Total frost damage in March, 2017 was around $1 billion. 

The region is set up for another agricultural disaster this year. Warm, pleasant weather is most definitely not a good thing. 

ELSEWHERE AND OUTLOOK

Ice storms in the Midwest and southern Ontario this week cut power to as many as a million people. 

The ice in Michigan caused the most widespread power outages in that state since a wild squall line of thunderstorms in August, 2021. At one point last night, more than a half million homes and businesses were without power due to the ice.

Parts of the upper Midwest are still digging out from 12 to 20 inches of windblown snow amid nasty wind chills. 

A shopping mall parking garage in Wisconsin partly collapsed under the weight of snow and ice, but thankfully nobody was hurt. 

Forecasters are now worried that the storm in California, as it moves east, could spawn a severe weather and tornado outbreak Sunday and Monday in the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast.

Although the nations' weather will become somewhat less extreme over the coming days, the same basic weather pattern should remain intact through at least the first week in March. That means more cold storminess in the West, and more summer like warmth in the Southeast.

For us here in Vermont, we're kind of in a sweet spot.  For the next week or two, expect active, but not extreme weather. That means temperatures more or less near normal, and frequent precipitation, but nothing super heavy. 

As Expected Heat Records Crashing In NW: New England (Smaller) Heat Wave

Today's national weather map shows an immense area
of extreme heat warnings and heat advisories in the West.
Some heat advisories are also showing up in the Northeast
(orange areas) 

Before we get into what's going on around here in Vermont, I really have to marvel at the heat in the Pacific Northwest.  

That region of the nation hasn't even reached the peak of their heat wave yet - that will come today and tomorrow - but record high temperatures were already crashing down, especially in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, Canada.

Portland, Oregon rocketed up to 108 degrees Saturday, reaching an all-time high for any date in that city. The scary thing is that new all time record will likely be broken today, and broken by a wide margin. 

The Weather Channel forecasts a high of 115 degrees in Portland today.  

For perspective,  it will be cooler in 99.8 percent of the world today than in Portland. Only parts of the Sahara Desert, Persian Gulf and a few spots in the Desert Southwest will be hotter. Portland is normally a pretty mild city.  Normal high temperatures there this time of year are in the upper 70s.

Seattle hit 102 degrees Saturday, a new record for the month of June.  The record for the date was broken by a whopping 12 degrees. Where this record was set, normal high temperatures this time of year are only in the low to mid 70s.

A weather balloon launched Saturday didn't hit the freezing point until it reached 18,700 feet, something unheard of for this part of the world. That's 4,300 feet above the summit of Mount Rainier, so I'm sure the snowfields and glaciers are melting rapidly up there. 

In Lytton, British Columbia, the temperature reached 110 degrees Saturday, the hottest reading for anywhere in Canada for the month of June.

The incredible heat wave in the Pacific Northwest will peak today and tomorrow before only slowly waning. 

Heat waves are always dangerous, as hot weather is the world's leading meteorologically cause of deaths.  The Pacific Northwest is not used to such hot weather, and many buildings and homes have no air conditioning.  It could get deadly. 

That's especially true since early morning low temperatures aren't offering much relief, making the heat wear down on people. The low temperature this morning in Seattle was 73 degrees, the warmest overnight low on record for any date. 

As NBC News/Associated Press reports, people have done their best to get ready for the heat wave.

"Stores sold out of portable air conditioners and fans, hospitals canceled outdoor vaccination clinics, baseball teams canceled or moved up weekend games and utilities braced for possible power outages."

As climate change continues on, heat waves are getting hotter, longer lasting and more frequent. This one is an outlier that might not be repeated in the Pacific Northwest anytime soon. But like most other places, strong heat waves have become more likely in that region and will continue to get more likely going forward. 

 VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND UPDATE

We in the Green Mountain State are among the many areas becoming more prone to hot spells.  We've seen that already record spring, summer and autumn heat this year, and every year since 2017. 

A few record highs could be threatened in New England today and tomorrow as we get our own hot spell. At least it's not as extreme as the one in the Pacific Northwest.  But it's bad enough.

Today has already gotten off to a muggy, icky start.  The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 75 degrees, compared to a normal low of 60.  That gives a good head start to the heat today.  We'll probably fall perhaps just two or three degrees short of the record high of 96 degrees for today's date. 

I'd say today's record high of 91 degrees in Montpelier is threatened. Other record will surely fall, especially in southern and eastern New England, which have the right conditions for the hottest temperatures. 

After a very stuffy night, Monday looks pretty brutal, too.  It's possible northern Vermont will be just a couple degrees cooler than today, but still hot. Clouds could keep temperatures in check a bit, and a slightly cooler upper atmosphere might hold temperatures back a degree or two.

However, if anything, southern and eastern Vermont could be even a bit hotter on Monday than today, and more record highs are threatened. Tuesday's temperatures in Vermont will drop a few more degree, though the intense heat will continue in central and southern New England. 

We sure do need the rain, and there are chances coming up.  Saturday, my place in St. Albans was probably the wettest spot in Vermont, which is the good news. The bad news is it only amounted to 0.3 inches, which isn't much. 

Most places in Vermont got either nothing or less than a tenth of an inch. 

Only isolated thunderstorms are possible today. There might be slightly higher coverage of storms Monday, but most of us will stay dry. 

A weather front stretching from Oklahoma to central Quebec has been for the past few days a conveyor belt for flooding rains. 

That boundary should slowly slip south into our area over the course of the week. There won't be flooding rains, and we don't even know yet whether there will be fairly decent rains. But at least the chances of some rain increase Tuesday through Thursday.

That weather front will also gradually decrease our temperatures through the rest of the week. It will stay kind of humid, though.