Perfect Summer Vermont Weekend Continues; Deep Heat, Maybe Severe Storms By Tuesday, Tuesday Night

A beautiful blue sky with puffy clouds over St
Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was part of a near-
perfect weather weekend in the Green Mountain State.

 We're halfway through a perfect Vermont summer weekend, at least in terms of weather. 

On Saturday, the temperature was perfect. The humidity was perfect. The scattered puffy clouds were perfect. A pleasant north breeze was perfect. Wildfire smoke in the atmosphere almost entirely dissipated.  

It's been really warm lately, so by comparison, yesterday was actually the coolest day since June 27, at least as measured in Burlington. That "cool" weather involved a warm high of 82 degrees.

Enjoy it while you can. By Tuesday, things could get rough. More on that in a minute.

Meanwhile, if you somehow missed Saturday's weather, we'll do it again today. Details:

TODAY

We started the day with temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s in the cooler spots. If you didn't sleep well last night, don't blame the weather. It was a perfect summer sleeping night. There's that word again. Perfect. 

The only real difference today is it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. So, low to mid 80s. There might be a little more wildfire smoke in the atmosphere today, compared to yesterday. But it will amount to some haze at times.

Go out there and enjoy any outdoor activity you like. The only thing to watch out for is the sun. You'll need sunscreen.

MONDAY

Here's where the weather starts to go downhill. But just a little. Warm air from the west and south will start to flow in.  By afternoon, highs will get into the mid and upper 80s, maybe even flirting with 90 in the hottest valleys. The humidity will begin to creep up, but it will still be pretty reasonable. 

It should be mostly sunny, though a weak disturbance might touch off a few light showers, mostly in northern Vermont. But the chances of that are low. 

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT

This will be the real trouble day. The first problem will be the heat. We're calling it "jailbreak heat," a term I stole from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's "jailbreak"  because a piece of hot air will escape from a terribly torrid heat dome over the northern Rockies. That plume of hot air will be racing east across the far northern Plains, southern Canada and down across New England .

We'll start the day warm, and it will get hotter and hotter as the day goes on and the blast furnace air comes in from the west. 

By late afternoon, almost all of Vermont will be at least 90 degrees. The warmest valleys should make it into the mid-90s.  There's a slight chance that the warmest valleys could be in the 95 to 100 degree range, but statewide, 90 to 95 degrees looks like the safest bet. 

It'll turn more humid, too. But not as humid as in that heat wave that struck at the beginning of the month. The hot air won't have a direct connection to the steamy Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. But southwest winds will bring in some moisture. 

STORMS?

The next problem with Tuesday will come late in the day, most likely after dark.  A southward moving cold front making its way into the hot air into Quebec will encounter a lot of atmospheric instability.

It looks like a large chunk of southern Quebec faces a nasty severe storm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 

By late in the day, that activity will start to cross the border into northern New England, including areas of Vermont near the Canadian border. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction has areas north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5 risk, with maybe a greater risk of high winds. The  rest of the state in a marginal risk (level one out of five).

That's a preliminary forecast. For now, the storms look like they will cross the border from Quebec into Vermont after dark, when the storms would be losing the atmosphere's strongest instability. They might be starting to weaken by then.  But they would still be powerful. 

Or, the storms could show up earlier, when they would be stronger.

In any event, all this is potentially dangerous for the campers enjoying Vermont's forests. Especially if these storms hit at night, when people are sleeping in tents or flimsy RVs. Falling trees in this scenario are obviously dangerous. 

An example of how dangerous could be a 1995 derecho that swept through New York's Adirondack mountains, killing seven people. 

Tuesday night's weather is something we'll really have to keep an eye on. 

TWO Tornadoes Struck Vermont On Thursday. The National Weather Service Gives Us The Details

Items scattered after yesterday's tornado
in Woodstock, Vermont. Two tornadoes
touched down in the state Thursday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington broke some news this afternoon: There were actually two tornadoes in Vermont Thursday. 

We already knew about the one that hit the western part of Woodstock, Vermont. But it turns out another tornado hit an area near and along York Hill Road in the Addison County town of Lincoln. 

The Addison County tornado doesn't come as a complete surprise. Meteorologists tracked a rotating thunderstorm that felled trees in the Middlebury are, though those winds are not believed to be tornadic. The rotation seemed to intensity near Bristol which is very close to Lincoln, so it's not entirely surprising there was a tornado there. 

WOODSTOCK

The tornado in Woodstock was a high end EF-1 tornado with top winds of 100 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. I traveled 1.34 miles along Route 4, mostly in the valley. It had a maximum width of 550 yards and was on the ground for just three minutes.

As we've seen in photographs and video, the tornado felled or snapped a large number of trees and caused roof damage and damage to solar panels. 

LINCOLN

The Lincoln tornado was actually a little stronger than the one in Woodstock with top winds of 105 mph. Again, that's a high-end EF-1 tornado

But the Lincoln tornado had a much shorter path and a shorter life. It only traveled 0.31 miles and had a path 200 yards wide. This tornado blew through an area of forest before sputtering out in a ravine. 

I suppose it's possible other tornadoes touched down in Vermont Thursday but I'm not aware of any investigations or areas that seem like they were obviously hit by a twister. There was a lot of wind damage, especially in southeast Vermont. 

We know it's unusual to have a tornado in Vermont. It's really odd to have two on the same day, or even the same year. There was another tornado in Williamstown on April 16, so we're up to the three in a year,

That doesn't break any records for the most Vermont twisters in a single year.

  The year 1962 seems to be the biggest twister year in Vermont. Three  tornadoes touched down across northern Vermont on May 20 that year. 

Two unusual morning tornadoes hit Windsor County on July 9, 1962. more tornadoes touched down on July 9, 1962. One of them traveled 16 miles between Chester and Weathersfield, according to the Vermont Weather Book. Another traveled five miles near Springfield, Vermont, then it crossed into New Hampshire and traveled three more miles. 

That said, there is a tendency for tornadoes to be moving east and north out of the Great Plains tornado alley, likely due to climate change. The Northeast has seen an increased number of twisters in recent years and Vermont might be seeing a piece of that. 

Of course, another factor is that some Vermont tornadoes in the past might have been missed. Everybody has smart phones. Everybody is on social media. New of weird storm damage spreads fast nowadays. Some of those reports result in investigations and confirmed tornadoes. 

The National Weather Service will likely release a much more detailed analysis of the tornadoes and the other instances of severe weather Vermont saw on Thursday. That analysis should be out within a few weeks. 

 

Thursday Evening Update: Vermont Storms Not Quite Over Yet

Storm clouds loomed over Lake Champlain Thursday
afternoon, looking west from South Burlington, Vermont.
 There were scattered instances of severe storms in 
the state today, and some storms might continue this evening.

As expected, there have been a fair number of heavy showers and thunderstorms around Vermont today. A small number of them have been severe.  

As of 5:30 p.m., so far the worst one appears to be one that hit north central Vermont a little before 4 pm. 

This was part of a line of strong storms that developed just west of Lake Champlain starting at around 1:30 p.m. , crossed the Champlain Valley and into the Green Mountains by late afternoon.

Trees were reportedly blown down with this storm in South Cambridge, Eden Mills and North Fairfax.

Although the storm in St. Albans wasn't severe, it did produce strong, gusty winds. Strong enough to cause a neighborhood emergency near the lake. 

A large tree reportedly blew over onto a house and propane tank on Hathaway Point Road near the lake. The incident broke a line between two propane tanks, which prompted evacuations of nearby homes. At last report, the leak had been fixed and residents were allowed to return home.   

Another severe thunderstorm was blowing through far southern Vermont along and just north of Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro as of late afternoon. 

At around 5 p.m. storms that appeared to be fairly strong were moving northeastward near Stowe and in northern Rutland County. 

Other storms might pop up between now and just after dark in Vermont.  There is still a chance one or two of them could become severe, but the chances that they'll become destructive will decrease through the evening.

Overnight, the showers and storms will end all together as a cold front moves through. 

Watch out on Lake Champlain Friday morning. A period of pretty strong west winds is expected for awhile before noon tomorrow. Gusts could reach as high as 45 mph with wave heights going as high as three feet.

It's unusual to get winds like this in June outside of thunderstorms. On land, the wind might be strong enough to knock down a few trees and branches here and there. The wind will subside nicely during the afternoon.

We're still looking at a possible stormy overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That situation is still iffy,  but we'll want to get more information on that. I'll update you tomorrow morning. 

 It looks like the temperature was able to sneak up to 90 degrees this afternoon in Burlington just before a brief thunderstorm arrived there.  That's the second time this summer already it's been 90 degrees there.

A hot spell is still in the works Sunday to Tuesday, especially Monday. It could get up to 90 degrees on Sunday if it clears up fast enough. Monday looks like a lock for near record high temperatures in the mid-90s. Depending upon how fast a cold front arrives, Tuesday looks like it could be impressively hot, too. 

Updates on all this will come in my post tomorrow morning. We seem to be in an active June weather pattern for a little while, don't we?

Friday Heat Wave Forecast Update: It Could Last A Long Time

Next Thursday's National Weather Service heat risk map
now has much of Vermont, and the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes in Level 4 (in Purple) which denotes
an extreme heat wave. Those are the most dangerous.

 We're going to be talking about heat waves for the next few days to buckle up. It's the weather event of the month, that's for sure. 

Before we get there, we have a cold front today that will bring one last shot of refreshing air before the ugh hits next week.

As the cold front slips through Vermont today, there's a slight chance it could trigger a severe storm or two in southern parts of the state.

Overall, the timing of the front before peak heating of the day means we're threading the needle between yesterday and last night's severe storms in Ontario and northwest New York, and expected severe weather in southern New England today. 

It'll be deceptive cool this weekend, but that will give you a chance to prepare for it all.  You can get strenuous chores outdoors done. (Saturday will be an excellent day to mow your lawn, and Sunday will be pretty good, too).

THE HEAT

Little has changed in the forecast, though those predictions are more bullish on keeping the extreme heat going Thursday than they were this time yesterday. Between the heat and the humidity, there's a real chance now that Thursday could marginally be the worst day of the hot spell. 

Just how hot it will get is a bit of a crap shoot. We know it will be terrible, but low 90s? mid-90s? upper 90s? 

At this point, odds favor mid 90s in warmer valleys and low 90s elsewhere. But some models do get us warmer than that. I've even seen speculation that some places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees. I suppose that's possible, but I'll say pretty unlikely for now. 

Usually, when the ground is very dry, it can get hotter, as the sun heats the air rather than focusing on evaporation. Soils are fairly wet now, so that might hold temperatures down a couple degrees. But it would make it more humid than it otherwise be.  So either way, it will be miserable.

That said, despite the humidity, sunshine and temperatures way up in the 90s will really stress gardens and dry them out quickly. You'll need to irrigate them.  Helpful hint: You might take the hose out during the day to water, but have several "clumsy moments" hose and nozzle to stay cool. 

We still have a chance of thunderstorms firing up during the heat wave, but this point those look to be few and far between. However, such heat is an atmospheric powder keg, so any storms that do form can turn severe next week. 

They're still talking about a potential cold front later Thursday or Friday, but it could be a weak one that doesn't do all that much good. 

  The National Weather Service in South Burlington last evening posted the chances of it going past 90 degrees in different places across Vermont and New York.

As the forecasts over the past few days have noted, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have very high chances of making it to 90 or better. 

The chances of 90 degree weather diminish a little after that, but don't go away.  There's a better than even chance of it making it to 90 again next Friday, and a decent chance of it getting that hot next Saturday and Sunday. 

Computer models are disagreeing on whether a cold front will spell bonafide, real relief from the heat by next weekend or not. 

Nights are what going to make the heat wave especially challenging. Temperatures in most places won't fall below the 70s, and of course the humidity will stay up there. That means people without air conditioning don't get much in the way of relief. 

Over time, the heat continues to build up in houses. People go night after night not sleeping well. The stress from the heat, the lack of sleep and difficulty staying hydrated makes any heat wave, and this one in particular dangerous for the elderly and people with health issues.

As we approach the heat wave, I'll throw in some hot weather life hacks as I think of them or become aware of them. 

Cool Rooms: I imagine Vermont will open up some cooling centers so that people can get some relief.   I'll continue may advice for people to find any cool place they can, and take their elderly neighbors with them. 

Hydrate: Stay hydrated next week. And if you find yourself sweating a lot, indulge in some sports drinks or something like that. I personally go to Pedialyte to restore my electrolytes. 

The cool weather we're expecting tomorrow and Sunday is a great time to go out and stock up on this stuff. 

Medications: Certain prescription medications increase sensitivity to heat. According to AARP, those include antibiotics, antihistamines, antifungals and many medications that treat cholesterol, high blood pressure and diabetes.

Definitely keep taking those medications unless your doctor tells you to stop. Just be aware these medications make the heat feel worse and affect you more.

Booze and caffeine:  Sorry, those are the favorite things of lots of people, but they make the effects of heat waves worse on people, too. 

Getting back to weather forecasts, here's one more weird thing . While the heat here will begin firing up big time Monday and especially Tuesday, a winter storm with up to a foot of snow is in the forecast for the high elevations of the Rocky Mountains of Montana. 

Go figure.