Thursday Evening Update: Vermont Storms Not Quite Over Yet

Storm clouds loomed over Lake Champlain Thursday
afternoon, looking west from South Burlington, Vermont.
 There were scattered instances of severe storms in 
the state today, and some storms might continue this evening.

As expected, there have been a fair number of heavy showers and thunderstorms around Vermont today. A small number of them have been severe.  

As of 5:30 p.m., so far the worst one appears to be one that hit north central Vermont a little before 4 pm. 

This was part of a line of strong storms that developed just west of Lake Champlain starting at around 1:30 p.m. , crossed the Champlain Valley and into the Green Mountains by late afternoon.

Trees were reportedly blown down with this storm in South Cambridge, Eden Mills and North Fairfax.

Although the storm in St. Albans wasn't severe, it did produce strong, gusty winds. Strong enough to cause a neighborhood emergency near the lake. 

A large tree reportedly blew over onto a house and propane tank on Hathaway Point Road near the lake. The incident broke a line between two propane tanks, which prompted evacuations of nearby homes. At last report, the leak had been fixed and residents were allowed to return home.   

Another severe thunderstorm was blowing through far southern Vermont along and just north of Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro as of late afternoon. 

At around 5 p.m. storms that appeared to be fairly strong were moving northeastward near Stowe and in northern Rutland County. 

Other storms might pop up between now and just after dark in Vermont.  There is still a chance one or two of them could become severe, but the chances that they'll become destructive will decrease through the evening.

Overnight, the showers and storms will end all together as a cold front moves through. 

Watch out on Lake Champlain Friday morning. A period of pretty strong west winds is expected for awhile before noon tomorrow. Gusts could reach as high as 45 mph with wave heights going as high as three feet.

It's unusual to get winds like this in June outside of thunderstorms. On land, the wind might be strong enough to knock down a few trees and branches here and there. The wind will subside nicely during the afternoon.

We're still looking at a possible stormy overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That situation is still iffy,  but we'll want to get more information on that. I'll update you tomorrow morning. 

 It looks like the temperature was able to sneak up to 90 degrees this afternoon in Burlington just before a brief thunderstorm arrived there.  That's the second time this summer already it's been 90 degrees there.

A hot spell is still in the works Sunday to Tuesday, especially Monday. It could get up to 90 degrees on Sunday if it clears up fast enough. Monday looks like a lock for near record high temperatures in the mid-90s. Depending upon how fast a cold front arrives, Tuesday looks like it could be impressively hot, too. 

Updates on all this will come in my post tomorrow morning. We seem to be in an active June weather pattern for a little while, don't we?

Messy Vermont Morning As Expected, Highly Variable Weather

Traffic cam grab of Interstate 89 in Bethel, Vermont this
morning, showing the ongoing snow and sleet is
still not doing road conditions any favors in
Vermont this morning. 

 Our complicated storm at least here in Vermont has played out pretty much as expected so far. 

And after we get done with today, we still have that likely bigger storm over the weekend. I'll limit this post to today's weather, and later today I'll do another post with an update on the weekend.   

TODAY

It was almost all snow thorough 7 a.m. statewide except in extreme southwest Vermont, where Bennington had been dealing with freezing rain during the early morning hours. 

Also as expected, southeast facing slopes have been getting the most snow due to the wind direction, while western slopes are warmer and drier, with not much snow at all. Not many snow reports have come in yet, so it's hard to say who got what. 

Interstate highways, at least according to traffic cameras, looked at least greasy if not partly snow covered as of 8 a.m., so I'm sure the morning commute was a little slow in spots. 

Now that we're solidly into morning, one more wave of moderate precipitation is coming through. The atmosphere is warming, both at the surface and aloft, so what comes down from the sky for the next few hours is a complicated question. 

For most of us, it looks like it'll be mostly snow and sleet, with maybe a little freezing rain thrown in just for fun.  As of 8:15 a.m, here in St. Albans, it was a mix of snow and sleet. The rest of the morning does not looks fantastic on the roads, so maybe postpone your travels until this afternoon when it gets a little better.

It will warm up faster along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and in the Champlain Valley in general than it will east of the Greens.  Many areas east of the Greens will probably stay below freezing until we get a couple hours past noon, so the iffy roads and sidewalks and such will last longer over there. 

I know the wind has been cranking on the west slopes of the Green Mountains, as forecast, but I haven't seen any specific wind reports so far. As of 8:15 a.m. there was a smattering of power outages in far southwestern Vermont. That's probably due to a combination of strong downslope winds, plus trees are slightly weighted down with a little accumulation of freezing rain.

This last wave of precipitation should be mostly out of here by noon, maybe early afternoon in northeastern Vermont. 

This afternoon and evening will be quieter with just scattered raindrops or snow flakes. If you get above freezing, it'll most likely be mid to late afternoon. 

Tonight, it will get windy again, this time from the west, and temperatures will once again tumble downward. Any water from this afternoon's mini-thaw in the valleys will freeze, so watch for that. 

There could be some snow showers overnight, too, but no biggie. Most of any snow showers we do get will be up in the mountains again 

As Expected, Vermont Walloped By Winter Storm

 We've had it all, and it's a mess out there in Vermont this morning, 

Nice green buds were visible yesterday on this cute
little lilac bush in my St. Albans, Vermont. It's shivering
today in the snow.  

Heavy wet snow, strong winds, tree damage, power outages, sleet, rain, school closings, crappy road conditions and poor visibility at times. Even thunder and lightning.  

The snow was still coming down at a good clip as of 8 a.m. so power failures are rising again. 

The heavier snow will last through much of this morning before turning lighter this afternoon. More power outages and bad road conditions will continue for many areas this morning.

 It'll get a little better in lower elevations this morning as temperatures rise, snow mixes with rain in the warmest valleys and precipitation gets less intense

SO FAR

The storm has played out pretty much as expected so far. The first half featured the expected strong winds in the western slopes of the Green Mountains, a fair amount of sleet and some snow mostly in the higher elevations. 

The wind and precipitations created 15,000 or so power outages in Vermont by 3 a.m. The bands of precipitation had some oomph to them.  There was some lightning strikes northwest of Plattsburgh, New York last evening, for instance. 

The wind died down some by the wee hours of this morning and mixed precipitation, as expected, transitioned to snow overnight. For awhile, crews were able to start restoring power as the number of outages was cut in half by 5 a.m. this morning. 

But the snow is wet and heavy, especially in low elevations, so all that good work by the power crews was undone. By 8 a.m., we were back where we started, with about 15,000 outages statewide. That number was rising. (Over 16,000 by 8:30 a.m.)

Some of these bands of snow coming through this morning are really heavy, piling up more than an inch of snow per hour at times. More lightning was detected around 5 a.m. this morning in the Northeast Kingdom. That tells you what a dynamic system this is. 

I'd stay in this morning. Roads are awful. Trees and branches and even power lines are falling on back roads where the snow is wettest and heaviest. I'm getting many, many reports of crashes, cars sliding off roads or traffic jams due to vehicles stuck in the wet, slippery snow. 

Driving anywhere this morning just isn't worth the trouble. Road crews are out, but they can only do so much. 

You probably already know by now that schools statewide are closed once again. (Ironically, many schools will close again Monday because of maybe, potential nice weather so kids can watch the eclipse). 

Tree branches are sagging under the weight of the
heavy wet snow today. Power outages are blossoming
instead of flowers as we'd like to see in the spring. 

Accumulations so far through 8 a.m, have been pretty uniform statewide, with generally four to eight inches reported. Even in the Champlain Valley.  That uniformity in snowfall amounts is about to change. 

TODAY

As mentioned, many of us have a few more hours of moderate to heavy snow to get through. Valley temperatures were hovering near 32 degrees as of 8 a.m. 

It is April, though it looks nothing like that spring month out there. But the sun angle is high and will cut through the clouds. That will allow temperatures to sneak upward by a couple or few degrees by this afternoon

Also, heavy snow, like we're getting this morning, tends to keep the air colder. Lighter precipitation this afternoon means the air will also be able to warm a bit.

It will by no means be a warm day. But temperatures in the 33 to 37 degree range in the valleys will cause the snow on the ground to settle a bit. Raindrops might mix with the snow. The bottom line is, in the valleys, after the heavier snow tapers off later this morning or early afternoon, new snow accumulations will pretty much stop. At least until tonight. 

This might create a window for power crews to begin to get an upper hand on those power outage. 

In the upper elevations, it will stay a little colder, so the snow will just keep piling up. The rate at which it accumulates will be slower. But since it will be snowing in the high elevations probably through tonight and off and on during Friday and Friday night, accumulations there will be impressive.

When it's all said and done total accumulations look as follows, with exceptions of course:

Warmer Valleys: 5-10 inches.

Most towns away from the lower valley, mostly above 1,000 feet: 8-15 inches, locally higher in a few spots.

Mountain summits 18-24 inches, locally more.  

WIND DOWN

Each day will get a little warmer, and each day will have less precipitation as we get from Friday and Saturday. 

Friday will be another not great for outdoors, unless you're into winter sports in the mountains. Valleys will be overcast and blustery with occasional light but cold rain showers, mixed with wet snow at times. Highs in those valleys should get into the 35-42 range. Still pretty chilly for this time of year. 

Mountains will continue to add light amounts of additional snow all day and night. 

Saturday will be a little better, with larger breaks between valley rain showers. Highs in the valleys should make it to or above 40 most places, so the snow melt down should gradually start. 

Snow showers in the mountains will continue pretty consistently.

Most of this should be over by Sunday with skies really beginning to clear, especially away from the mountains. Highs should be more seasonable, going well into the 40s to near 50.

Forecasters are still (very) cautiously optimistic about the eclipse Monday, with a fair amount of sunshine still in the forecast. (No sunshine during the total eclipse, though, of course).

I'll have updates as warranted through the day. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Forecast Still Steady As She Goes

 

This evening's snow forecast from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington is little changed from
this morning. A moderate fall of fluffy snow is coming.

 We went from clear to overcast skies today, as expected, as what continues to look like the little storm that could continues to approach Vermont.   

We're in the final "windshield wipering" phase of the snow forecast, where predicted accumulations go back and forth from slightly lighter to slightly heavier and back again and again. 

 These small changes in how much any particular spot should get won't really matter. 

But the basic premise is still the same as it was this morning. Most of us should get a light to moderate snow, with the most in the Green Mountains and the least in the central and southern Champlain Valley

The sweet spot remains the central and northern Green Mountains. Those areas will see six to as much as 10 inches of fluffy snow. 

The Champlain Valley south of roughly Colchester and low elevations of Rutland and Bennington counties should get the least, with about 2 to as much as 4 inches of snow. The rest of us should end up with three to six inches. 

This will be a "Road Runner" kind of storm. It will really
be in and out of Vermont in a jiffy 

Winds might get breezy at times late tonight and Friday morning. Since the snow will be fluffy and powdery, it will blow around easily. So in addition to the snow on the roads late tonight and during at least part of the Friday morning commute, visibility might be an issue. 

For valleys, the snow still looks like it will be said and done by mid-morning Friday. This little bugger of a storm from the Great Lakes is moving right along. It's not in the mood to loiter around Vermont.

One model, for instance, has the storm a little north of Buffalo, New York around 7 p.m, tonight, then pretty close to Burlington around 2 a.m Friday; and off the coast of Maine by around sunrise. Kinda reminds me of the Road Runner, honestly.   

Lingering moisture well behind this system will keep the snow showers going in the central and northern Green Mountains all day and into Friday evening. Which is part of the reason why the Greens are going to do well with this storm.

Overall, this will be a pretty painless event, and will do more good than harm.  Sure, the roads will be crappy Friday morning, and you'll have to shovel snow.

The snow will be light and fluffy, so should be easy to clear. For a change, we're not getting heavy, wet "heart attack snow." 

Anybody who wants to go cross country skiing or snowmobiling ought to be encouraged.

It won't exactly establish a nice big snowpack in the mountains, but at least it will add a little. And definitely freshen things up enough to hopefully attract skiers and riders.  

 The forecast beyond Friday hasn't changed, much, either. We will have some bouts of light snow and flurries off and on Saturday through at least Monday.  Temperatures will stay reasonable, too. Most days will be in the 20s. Nights will be more variable, with lows in the single numbers to low 20s.

Another thaw seems like it wants to arrive by about Wednesday. As I said this morning, the new thaw doesn't look like it will last as long or be as extreme as the last one.

The Vermont Ice And Yuck Continue

Turns out those water droplets on these branches outside
my St. Albans, Vermont house this morning were frozen,
Quite slippery underfoot, too. More rain and freezing
rain is on is way to Vermont. 

 We're midway through our rain/freezing rain/drizzle/fog mess here in Vermont and we have one more good round to go late tonight and Friday.  

There's also been some changes to the forecast which I'll get into as we go along here.

The rain and ice played out pretty much as expected last night, with western Vermont mostly avoiding the ice that made the roads slick elsewhere.

But even in what had been some ice-free spots, like here in St. Albans, the temperature fell below freezing just as the rain was ending. That left a bunch of ice on surfaces that just looked wet. Jackson the Weather Dog took a nasty tumble on the deck when he discovered this problem. (Luckily,  he's fine, just annoyed).

I did see some isolated reports of up to a quarter inch of ice in a few spots in central and northeastern Vermont, and perhaps down in Windsor County, as up to 400 homes and businesses lost power for a time down there.  

Those minimal outages pale in comparison to the tens of thousands of Vermonters who were without power in the wind storms on January 10 and 13.  

I noticed quite a few schools in around Vermont today had delayed openings because of the overnight ice.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect has been lifted since the bulk of the rain has moved out. But I do see some new advisories in our future. 

So what's next?

TODAY

It'll be dark and overcast, of course. We'll see areas of fog, and a few light patches of drizzle with possible bits of  freezing drizzle in eastern and far northern Vermont. Slick spots will remain on the roads, especially back dirt roads overpasses, bridges and curves. 

I'd be careful driving around today, especially away from the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southwestern Vermont.  It's not going to warm up much with expected highs in the 31 to 39 degree range. So ice could remain all day in some areas.  

LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY 

The next round of rain and ice come in tonight, later than it arrived last night. 

The timing of this is bad, as most of the rain and freezing rain will be coming just prior to and during the morning commute. 

Latest ice forecast for tonight and Friday from the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
Looks like the central and southern Green Mountains
will get the most ice in the next round. 

Once again, the worst of the ice - or the best chance of it will be from the Green Mountains eastward, and possibly the far northern Champlain Valley.

 I expect another round of school delays or closures in Vermont Friday. I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will hoist another winter weather advisory, too. 

Ice is bad to drive on, of course, but what will make tomorrow morning tricky on the roads is it will seem like some areas will be just wet, then suddenly you encounter ice. 

One trick that doesn't always work but is still good to note:  If the road looks just wet but the vehicles in front of you are throwing up little or no spray, you're driving on ice.  Remember, though, it could be a mix of water and ice on the road, which is just as bad as plain ice

 There's been a few little changes to this forecast. But the cold air in some layers of the atmosphere will re-assert itself a little during the day Friday. Especially very roughly in the northeastern half of Vermont.

That means the rain and freezing rain could mix with or change to sleet and snow in parts of northern and northeastern Vermont.  The sleet and snow probably won't accumulate more than an inch or two. And it might be slightly beneficial in that the mix means a little less freezing rain will cling to trees and power lines. 

At this point, the best chance of another quarter inch or little more of ice is in the Green Mountains and valleys roughly near Killington and the Middlebury Snow Bowl down to high elevations east of Bennington. 

Not everybody in this region will get a lot of ice. It will be patchy, as it looks now. 

The rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will probably last into the Friday evening commute, too. The precipitation by that point won't be coming down particularly hard. But it takes very little mixed precipitation to make the roads crappy.  

BEYOND FRIDAY

Saturday just looks cloudy and mild for the season.  I suppose there could be light, wet flurries or a few raindrops around, but nothing to get excited about. 

Sunday might feature some light snow, especially south. We're still watching a new storm that looks like it will scoot to far south to give us any major snows.  But an unexpected shift north could change that, so we'll keep an eye on it. 

We'll probably see a quick shot of cold air early in the week (Highs 15-22, lows in the single numbers) before it gets rather mild again by midweek. 

Wednesday Evening Wintry Update: Vermont Thursday Morning Commute Still Looks Icky

Much to my husband's chagrin (He doesn't want to deal with
winter) I set out our snow shovel on our deck in anticipation
of a messy snow/sleet/ice event Thursday morning. 

 Winter weather advisories continue in Vermont for at least the first half of Thursday as the first "wonderful" mixed precipitation event of the season arrives in the Green Mountain State.  

We're still looking a quick pre-dawn burst of snow crossing the state from southwest to northeast, mostly just before or around dawn. We're still probably in for an inch or so of snow, give or take, but it will quickly transition to sleet and freezing rain. 

As mentioned this morning, that's just in time for tomorrow's morning commute. So it will be a mess. The scenario I outlined this morning still looks likely.  In many areas, relatively warm ground temperatures will keep many main roads just wet or slushy. But certain cold spots and definitely bridges and overpasses will ice over. 

That will surprise people driving along at full speed, only to encounter icy bridges and get into a mess. If you want an illustration of how this works, click on this link for a video of wet "safe" roads and icy bridges causing several pileups in Wisconsin on November 1. 

As always in these mixed precipitation events, results may vary.  It will either be a little worse or a little better than current forecasts. Plus, things will be very different from one town to another. The eventual transition to a non-freezing cold rain or drizzle might be quick in some spots, especially in some parts of the Champlain Valley.

But the freezing schmutz could last longer in some areas. You never know exactly where, so take care on the roads, 

Bottom line: It still looks like you'll need to plan extra time to get to your destination if you have to go anywhere tomorrow morning. The Interstate 89 corridor in Vermont might be a particular mess. That's because that's basically the main highway in the major population and employment areas of the state. And there are few alternative routes.

One crash can gum up a long stretch of the Interstate. 

Increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon over St. Albans,
Vermont in advance of tomorrow's messy mixed
precipitation morning commute.

So bosses: If your employees show up late to work and they blame the weather, cut them some slack. 

I still suspect there might be some school closures or opening delays, so check in the morning to see if your kid is lucky enough to get out of Thursday's math test. 

We're still looking at it warming up just enough Thursday afternoon to lose the ice but still have an absolutely miserable day, typical of November. 

Temperatures will barely make it to 40 in the warmer spots. Overcast, light rain and drizzle will be absolutely, ahem, lovely in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley, will add to the chill. 

After this fun little episode, the weather looks like it will go quiet again.  We won't have gorgeous weather. In fact, it will be a little colder than normal through the weekend. 

There are signs that next week might be a little warmer. Not spectacularly so, but enough to feel a little better than Thursday will. 

Partial Eclipse Of The Sun Here In Vermont/Other Areas Tomorrow

 If you're up at the crack of dawn tomorrow morning here in Vermont and have a good view of the eastern and northeastern horizon, you'll get to see a partial eclipse of the sun. 

Areas shaded in orange are where the tomorrow's annular
solar eclipse will be visible. The darkest shade of orange 
is where only the outer edges of the sun will be 
visible during the peak of the eclipse.

The eclipse will be ongoing locally when the sun rises at 5:08 a.m. It'll peak at around 5:35 a.m. with around 80 percent of the sun obscured by the moon.   It'll be all said and done by around 6:35 a.m.

Even if you're not looking at the skies, the coming of daylight after sunrise will seem a little more sluggish than usual early tomorrow as the moon blocks out part of the sun's June morning light over us. 

Since this is early, you won't see it if you're up against the west slopes of the Green Mountains, since the sun will still be behind the hills. 

On the bright side, if you do get a view, the forecast currently calls for partly to mostly clear skies, so that's good.

You don't want to look directly at the eclipse anyway. And wearing sunglasses won't cut it, either, even if you have super duper expensive "aren't I special" shades. If you have those eclipse goggles from the last eclipse in 2017, use those.  Or you can make a pinhole projector. 

This is an annular eclipse, so even in places where the moon does its best to cover the sun, you'll still see the edges of the sun.   That's why they're calling this a "ring of fire" eclipse. A lucky few people in northwestern Greenland, and parts of northern Russia and northeastern Canada will be able to see this. 

Not many people live in these areas, so they are in for a special treat.

A "ring of fire" eclipse happens when the moon is relatively far from the Earth, so it appears smaller and is unable to entirely block out the sun. A more dramatic total solar eclipse happens when the moon is a little closer to Earth. In those cases, as what parts of the U.S experience in 2017, near total darkness descends because the moon completely blocks out the sun. It's quite dramatic and exciting. 

The partial annular eclipse we'll be able to see tomorrow is practice for something spectacular. Another complete solar eclipse, like the one in 2017, is coming on April 8, 2024.   The path of totality in 2024 will pass directly over northwestern Vermont. It will be a once in a lifetime experience, for sure. 

Maybe tomorrow's partial thing isn't exactly a lifetime bucket list item, but it's still pretty cool. Except for those who like to sleep in for a couple hours past dawn.