Western Drought Creates Weird New Hazard: Lake Powell Quicksand

A person in the danger zone around quicksand on the 
shores of Lake Powell on the Utah/Arizona border

 The lake level in drought-stricken Lake Powell has dropped so low that it has left behind a weird danger: Quicksand. 

Actually, there's alway has been quicksand around Lake Powell, which straddles the Utah/Arizona border.

But now it's everywhere it seems, due to the crashing lake level from drought. 

Sediment flows into Lake Powell and collects as a wet sand near the bottom or on rock shelves on or above the lakebed.  These sediment areas are now above water and in many instances have taken the form of  quicksand along shorelines and drainages in Lake Powell. 

The lake is part of the popular Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. 

All those old time movies or cartoons depicting quicksand is something that pulls people in until they're buried and dead and gone forever is a myth. Someone who get stuck in quicksand typically stop sinking once they're in waist deep. 

But it can still trap people, and can be dangerous if they're alone and can't get out of it. If a person is alone and can't get out, they'll likely die of hypothermia if help doesn't arrive. 

But once you're in that far, it's incredibly hard to get out. To pull one leg requires the amount of force need to lift a small car, notes Livescience.com

The more you move around, the more you'll sink. A disturbance such as a person entering quicksand will liquify it. "The wet sand sediment becomes so densely packed that it's harder to move than cold molasses. Once the victim's foot becomes stuck in it, the situation is dire," notes Livescience.com

You're left with the densely packed sand keeps you in place with water on top. 

After some experiments with quicksand, experts have devised a way for people to get out of quicksand. Remember this if you're ever tempted to try the Lake Powell quicksand experience.  

 Livescience.com  tells us: 

"Stay calm and eventually, you'll float Stretch out on your back to increase hour surface area and wait until your legs pop free," At this point, moving your legs around at this point to stir in water, and that will help you float.

Of course, people panic, so it's always best to have somebody with you who could seek help. 

So far, I haven't heard of anybody getting into serious, life-threatening trouble with the quicksand. But Lake Powell is getting busier. Spring breakers have invaded the area and the summer tourism season is right around the corner, 

The National Park Service suggests hikers stay close to canyon walls and hike with a buddy. People should check suspicious ground with a walking stick to test the area.

The quicksand will appear as wet, loose, or unusually smooth ground, or unexpected water seepage or pooling, vibrating soil, surfaces that look soft or spongy, NPS spokesperson Heidi Grigg said. 

If you see something like that, it's best to go around it. Preferably on hard rocks. 

OTHER LOW WATER ISSUES

Lake Powell's low water levels is having another impact on summer recreation: The lake is so low, and thus so much smaller, that there's not as much room to launch boats.  That means long lines and a lot more time spent getting boats in and out of the water.

Obviously, the western drought and Lake Powell's troubles aren't limited to isolated quicksand crises or boating inconveniences 

Water managers' goals is to keep the lake level in Powelll to at least 3,525 feet above sea leave. If it gets to 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam, which holds back Lake Powell, can no longer generate any electricity. 

That means utilities will need to turn to more expensive and often more polluting sources to generate electricity. 

The quicksand, the boats, the electricity generation is just the edges of the deep crisis developing in the Southwest. Drought had already been established for years. Then mountain snowpack was the worst on record in many areas, thanks to the warmest winter in the West on record. 

Then, this month, by far the most intense, record shattering March heat wave ever seen settled in for a long visit in the Southwest. This prematurely melted whatever paltry mountain snow pack there was, and further dried out the region much more than anybody anticipated for so early in the season. 

You're going to see a lot of posts this year in this here blog thingy about western drought, western water shortened, western wildfires, and all sorts of big time problems associated with a climate-changed, hot, dry landscape. 

Video: 

Experienced hikers encounter quicksand at Lake Powell.  They knew how to get out of the situation  and you can see them do so in the vid. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

 

 

 

Latest Vermont Storm Behaved As Expected; Busy Pattern Ahead, No Rest For The Storm-Weary

The sun emerges as the last of the overnight snowflakes
fall in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. We only 
received 2.1 inches of new snow, but there's plenty
of reports of near eight inches in southern Vermont. 

 The snow in Vermont was just tapering off as of 8 a.m. this morning, and glimpses of blue sky were visible through the last remaining snowflakes in the air. 

Road crews are busily clearing the highways, though most of them remained snow-covered and slippery as of 8 a.m. They'll keep improving through the morning. 

I noticed on traffic cams the roads near ski areas seemed particularly busy. No surprise there, given the great conditions the past few weeks of winter weather have provided. 

As promised, the snow focused on southern Vermont, though everybody got some. 

Snow reports were just coming in, but the six-inch plus totals look pretty widespread all the way to central Vermont. The biggest totals I've seen so far are 9 inches in Tunbridge, and 8.5 inches in West Addison. I saw quite a few eight inch totals in southern Vermont. 

Lighter snow fell roughly in line with expectations further north. I measured just 2.1 inches here in St. Albans. Burlington looks like it will come in with about 2.5 inches of new snow. It also looks like the Northeast Kingdom got about two to as much as three inches of snow. 

TODAY

Traffic cam caught a line of vehicles following a 
Vermont state snowplow up Route 108 in Stowe.
I bet ski resorts in the state are anticipating
a very busy Sunday. 

As promised earlier, we have a nice one coming up.  It won't be wall to wall sunshine as clouds seem like they want to hang around most of the day. But it will be bright and the sun will be out off and on. Bring those shades!  

Even better, we're starting off today relatively mild and will stay that way.  It was near 20 degrees for pretty much all of us early this morning and we'll make it into the upper 20s this afternoon, and the wind will stay pretty light. 

A few extra snow showers or flurries might appear later this afternoon and evening, but they'll just make the air seem that much prettier. 

EARLY WEEK

Back to the relatively quiet and cold weather we've seen all winter, at least between our mid-sized storms. It will be a little chillier than average for this time of year, with highs in the teens to low 20s, and lows in the single numbers. Cold spots go below zero again.

There will be hints of snow here and there, especially on Tuesday when a couple of weak reinforcing cold fronts come down from Quebec and blow through here. That'll set off some snow showers. We might have to watch Tuesday afternoon and evening for some heavier snow showers that could mess with the afternoon commute. We'll see and update as needed.

THURSDAY STORM

This one is already giving headaches to Vermont meteorologists.  It's actually two storms coming at us at once. One of the storms will go by just to our northwest, the other will scoot by to our south across lower New England in tandem with the more northern one. 

The question is, which of the two will be stronger. If the northern one flexes its muscles, it'll get warmer and might we'll  have to deal with a snow to freezing rain and schmutz scenario. As of this morning, the stronger northern storm is beginning to look more likely. 

If trends reverse and the southern storm wins out, it'll just snow. 

It's too soon to say how much of anything we might get out of the Thursday thing, so I guess we'll wait on updates for this one, too.

Yet another storm looks like it will sweep by next Sunday. It's too soon to say whether that one will hit us in Vermont, or go by too far to the south to give us much of anything. It's a waiting game to find out what's going on with all these storms, I guess. 

Meanwhile, live in the day. Don't worry about the rest of the week.  Just go out and play in the really beautiful snow out there today. 

Despite Better Weather This Winter, Climate Change Is Changing The Face Of Vermont Winter Recreation

Ice fishing enthusiasts on Lake Champlain several 
years ago. Climate change has made many winter
sports and recreation seasons shorter and more
unreliable than in the past. 

By historical standards, this December in Vermont has been no great shakes in terms of winter weather.
 

But in at least parts of the state, perhaps the whole state, this was  the most wintry December since 2019, and a rare exception to the balmy Decembers of the past few decades.

That's not saying much. The record warmth and rain in  the final few days of 2024, spelled more trouble for a potentially beleaguered industry.  

We're talking ski areas, and especially outfits related to cross country skiing and snow shoeing, snowmobiling, ice fishing and outdoor skating. 

Traditional winter weather has returned now that it's January. It's cold, and some of the ski resorts got decent shot of snow in the past couple of days.  Even if this winter turns out to be the much colder and snowier than what we've gotten used to in the past couple of decades, it will probably be an outlier.  With climate change, strangely balmy winters are here to stay. 

Which makes us question the future of Vermont's storied winter sports and recreation industry.  At the very least that industry is changing. And  will continue to change. 

Our ski resorts' ever increasing reliance on snowmaking is well documented. This is especially true for smaller independent resorts,  Big conglomerates like Vail can weather a bad ski season in say, Colorado, because their other resorts elsewhere in the world might save the day with better snow.

Marketplace, with airs on National Public Radio, recently took a look at the Bolton Valley Ski Area in Vermont.

Bolton has heavily invested in snow making in recent years so it's ready to take advantage of any moments when it's cold enough to manufacture the flakes. Since the family that runs the resort bought it in 2017, they've invested $1 million in snowmaking, notes Marketplace. 

The resort has had other trouble with likely climate change-related issues this year. The access road to the resort was essentially wiped out by flash floods in July. Repairs to the road barely finished before the ski season started.

CROSS COUNTRY SKIING

The Bolton ski area has a relatively high base elevation, at about 2,000 feet, so they're more likely to see snow than rain, compared to places in the valleys. Which brings us to businesses like cross country ski centers. 

Last winter's record warmth and lack of snow meant that Vermont's 26 ski touring centers had about 50 percent fewer visitors than the prior winter, which also fell well short of a banner year. 

New Hampshire Public Radio last March ran a piece about how cross country skiing, particularly school competitions in the sport, are having a tough time in the Green Mountain State. Says NHPR:

"Kate Hale, a postdoc studying show hydrology at the University of Vermont, says the winter season is shrinking in Vermont due to climate change. 

'Snow on is occurring almost two weeks later on average in the year and snow off is now occurring about a week earlier in the spring,' Hale says. 

On top of the shrinking length of the season, Hale said that Vermont is seeing an increasing amount of rain-on-snow events."

Kind of like what's going on this weekend and early in the week.  You finally manage to get a snowpack, albeit a thin one, but still enough to cross country ski. Then it's suddenly 50 degrees and raining so you have to start over again with the snow. 

Hale told NHPR that Vermont/s snowpack depth has declined about 13 percent between 1965 and 2022.

That really takes a toll in cross country teams that are based in the warmest, lowest parts of Vermont, like the Champlain Valley.

Last year, the South Burlington cross country team had to take buses up to the higher elevation Sleepy Hollow Ski Center in higher elevation Huntington. But the travel time interferes with homework and sleep for team members, so that's not great, either. 

As the Waterbury Roundabout/Barre Times Argus noted in September, the longer summers and shorter, less snowy winters are changing the face of outdoor recreation in Vermont, as people gravitate toward hiking and mountain biking and away from snowshoeing and cross country skiing. 

SNOWMOBILES

 Vermont Public Radio's podcast Brave Little State last March had an eye opening look at snowmobiling in Vermont. 

In 2001, the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers did an economic impact study of snowmobiling in the Green Mountain State.  Reports Brave Little State:

"That study estimated that snowmobilers that year spend about $511 million on gas, food, lodging and snowmobiles - including parts and service. That figure also includes vehicle registration and VAST membership fees, which go right back into the organization."

Turns out that 2001 study was done near the heyday of snowmobiling in Vermont. Since then, VAST is now selling  half the number of annual trail passes than it did a couple decades ago. The Vermont Agency of Transportation says the number of snowmobile registrations is down by half. 

Meanwhile, the cost of gas, insurance and trail maintenance is going up. Especially since the snow has become so unreliable in Vermont due to our warmer winters. 

On top of all that, floods in the summer of 2023 caused $4 million in damage to VAST trailers. Additional flooding caused more damage in 2024,

Cindy Locke, executive director of VAST, told Brave Little State: "Will we survive this? I don't know. You know, I don't know if snowmobiling will survive, you know, winters without snow. I know they won't. Like we won't survive after  just a few, if we have brown winters." 

 ICE FISHING

On Lake Champlain, what had been in the past reliable annual ice events have been interrupted and canceled by warm weather in recent years. 

Last year, The Pond Hockey Classic on Malletts Bay in Colchester was canceled.  A major Lake Champlain winter ice fishing derby was canceled for the second winter in a row due to thin or nonexistent ice. 

A 2020 study indicates below freezing periods have declined by nearly three weeks since 1960.  That has shortened or in some cases eliminated the period of time in winter when lake ice is relatively safe for ice fishing. 

Which isn't good, since tourism based on ice fishing amounts to expenditures of $147 million per year, according to information from the University of Vermont.

THIS WINTER

I don't know what the rest of this winter will bring. December brought mixed results, with some decent snow cover at times, but also some pretty intense thaws. Overall this winter is almost guaranteed to be colder than last winter, as 2023-24 was the warmest one on record.

Snowfall so far this winter has been unimpressive. You can get decent snows with slightly warmer than average winters, so it's not like the odd winter in Vermont can't bring deep snows. 

But that seems to be gradually getting less and less likely as the climate change years go by. The face of winter outdoor sports in Vermont is changing, and in many cases fading. Athletic types are going to need to get used to embracing warmer weather sports. 

 

Thursday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Forecast Still Steady As She Goes

 

This evening's snow forecast from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington is little changed from
this morning. A moderate fall of fluffy snow is coming.

 We went from clear to overcast skies today, as expected, as what continues to look like the little storm that could continues to approach Vermont.   

We're in the final "windshield wipering" phase of the snow forecast, where predicted accumulations go back and forth from slightly lighter to slightly heavier and back again and again. 

 These small changes in how much any particular spot should get won't really matter. 

But the basic premise is still the same as it was this morning. Most of us should get a light to moderate snow, with the most in the Green Mountains and the least in the central and southern Champlain Valley

The sweet spot remains the central and northern Green Mountains. Those areas will see six to as much as 10 inches of fluffy snow. 

The Champlain Valley south of roughly Colchester and low elevations of Rutland and Bennington counties should get the least, with about 2 to as much as 4 inches of snow. The rest of us should end up with three to six inches. 

This will be a "Road Runner" kind of storm. It will really
be in and out of Vermont in a jiffy 

Winds might get breezy at times late tonight and Friday morning. Since the snow will be fluffy and powdery, it will blow around easily. So in addition to the snow on the roads late tonight and during at least part of the Friday morning commute, visibility might be an issue. 

For valleys, the snow still looks like it will be said and done by mid-morning Friday. This little bugger of a storm from the Great Lakes is moving right along. It's not in the mood to loiter around Vermont.

One model, for instance, has the storm a little north of Buffalo, New York around 7 p.m, tonight, then pretty close to Burlington around 2 a.m Friday; and off the coast of Maine by around sunrise. Kinda reminds me of the Road Runner, honestly.   

Lingering moisture well behind this system will keep the snow showers going in the central and northern Green Mountains all day and into Friday evening. Which is part of the reason why the Greens are going to do well with this storm.

Overall, this will be a pretty painless event, and will do more good than harm.  Sure, the roads will be crappy Friday morning, and you'll have to shovel snow.

The snow will be light and fluffy, so should be easy to clear. For a change, we're not getting heavy, wet "heart attack snow." 

Anybody who wants to go cross country skiing or snowmobiling ought to be encouraged.

It won't exactly establish a nice big snowpack in the mountains, but at least it will add a little. And definitely freshen things up enough to hopefully attract skiers and riders.  

 The forecast beyond Friday hasn't changed, much, either. We will have some bouts of light snow and flurries off and on Saturday through at least Monday.  Temperatures will stay reasonable, too. Most days will be in the 20s. Nights will be more variable, with lows in the single numbers to low 20s.

Another thaw seems like it wants to arrive by about Wednesday. As I said this morning, the new thaw doesn't look like it will last as long or be as extreme as the last one.