For Parts Of Vermont, The Snow Just Kept On Coming Since Yesterday Morning

Check out the size of the snowbanks along Route 242 up in
Westfield from all the snow that area has gotten
this winter. Web cam grab from is from this morning. 

 As of 8 a.m. it was still snowing here in St. Albans, Vermont.

The main storm had passed 24 hours earlier, but light snow and flurries have been almost continuous since. An additional four inches of snow has fallen atop then 3.8 inches we got from the "main" storm Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The snow that fell since yesterday morning is much, much fluffier than the stuff that we got Tuesday night, so the freshest snow will pack down. But there's now a LOT of snow on the ground here.

Burlington collected 1.7 inches of fluff atop the 3.8 inches of snow (and a little freezing drizzle) from Tuesday and Tuesday night.  

 I don't have many reports quite yet of overnight snowfall elsewhere in Vermont. But judging from the way weather radar looked yesterday, last night and early this morning, I'm guessing the western slopes and summits of the central and northern Green Mountains did really well. 

We're getting some clues from northern Vermont ski areas, who must be ecstatic heading into the President's Day holiday. Jay Peak says they got 8 to 10 inches of snow since yesterday for a two-day total of 16 inches, and a total for the season of 338 inches. Stowe Mountain Resort reports 11 inches in the past 36 hours. 

In both places, it was still snowing a little as of early this morning.

FORECAST

Lots of traffic heading up Route 108, the Mountain Road
heading to Stowe Resort. Great conditions, perfect weather'
and the Presidents Day weekend will surely bring
crowds to the resorts over the next several days 

Very little new snow is coming for the next several days, but this will be an exquisite next few days for winter sports types. 

 The weather pattern has changed to a somewhat warmer one. Yesterday was the first milder than average day in Burlington since January 22. That's almost three weeks ago.

Temperatures will be near average for the next few days, then it will go a little above normal next week. 

No more frostbite and hyperthermia after just 10 minutes outdoors. You will actually be able to enjoy the days playing in the snow. 

That means for today through Sunday daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Tonight will be an exception as it actually looks like it will get pretty cold. A fresh snow pack, mostly clear skies and light winds will bring us down into the single digits, with a few below zero readings in the colder spots. 

Following that, most overnight lows through the weekend will be in the upper single number and teens.

Through yesterday, Burlington was at 20 consecutive days of subfreezing temperatures. It's possible they could finally get barely above freezing Saturday or Sunday, but next Monday looks like the most likely date.

At least the first half of next week should feature above freezing temperatures for most of us. The next chance of any substantial precipitation would come along next Wednesday, but it's too soon to figure out how much and what kind of stuff falls from the sky. 

For those of you who want to hang onto winter, this does not look like it will be any kind of mega-thaw. It'll be awhile yet before we see bare ground. In fact, some (but definitely not all!) computer models want to keep us relatively cool through the end of February. Not frigid like it's been lately, but not exactly springlike, either.  

Suddenly, Vermont Is Having A (Somewhat) Snowy Winter

Traffic cam image taken just after the snow tapered
off along high elevation Route 17 in Buels Gore,
Vermont shows some pretty tall snowbanks 
lining the road after repeated snow falls this year.

 The mid-sized snowstorm Vermont received Saturday night and early Sunday has really done a nice job helping make the state appear it's having an old-fashioned snowy winter for a change. 

Combined with previous modest snowfalls in the past couple weeks, we're actually reasonably deep in powder for a change

Thanks in large part to climate change most of the several winters have been downright tropical by Vermont standards. 

Last winter was by far the warmest on record.  The six warmest winters on record have all occurred since 2001-02. The top four have all happened since 2015-16.

It began to look like we were headed down a similar path earlier this winter.  December featured some strong thaws and paltry snowfall. January was colder, but most of the snow that did fall hit the mountains and missed the valleys. 

Right as January ended and February started, the snows started coming. Forecasts indicate that for awhile anyway, the snows could keep coming. Heck, it snowed a little again overnight and this morning. 

We're really starting to build a pretty decent snow cover through most of Vermont at this point.  

To be sure, in many if not most areas of Vermont, the season's snowfall at this point is still running below normal, but we're beginning to catch up. 

Through Sunday, the seasonal snowfall in Burlington was 42.6 inches, about ten inches below normal for the date. That's still a lot better than the 27.9 inches of snow Burlington had thought February 9 of last year.  

LACK OF THAWS

Because of a lack of major thaws since New Year's Day  snow depths are better this winter than they have been in recent seasons. Most places outside the deeper, warmer valleys have around a foot or more of snow on the ground. 

Some areas are getting semi-buried. As of Sunday, the snow depth in Greensboro and West Topsham was 29 inches. Westfield had 28 inches on the ground and Braintree was up to 27 inches. 

That's nowhere near any kind of record, but it's up there. 

Mountain summits are doing great.  The spine of the Green Mountains always do better than the valleys when it comes to snow.  But this year is even more disproportionate. 

By Sunday, the snow depth near the summit of Mount Mansfield was 81 inches. Normal for this time of year up there is 57 inches. 

MORE SNOW

As noted in previous forecasts, we have several chances for additional snowfalls in the coming couple weeks, and chances are temperatures will stay at or below normal most of the time for the next couple of weeks. 

That makes even deeper snow cover a good possibility. 

The snow showers (some of them kinda heavy) that have been harassing parts of northern and central Vermont his morning should pretty much disappear by this afternoon.   More snow showers and a possible snow squall or two Tuesday afternoon or evening could dump another one to two inches of fluff on at least some parts of the state. One or two spots could have even a little more than that.  

A storm system expected Thursday might drop a few more inches of snow, though forecasters don't yet know exactly how much. And we still don't know whether a little freezing rain or rain will mix in. We'll have more info on this later tomorrow or Wednesday.

Plus, there's a chance - just a chance - of a larger storm next Sunday. 

SNOW GOOD NEWS

All this is mostly good news. Mostly involving money.  The don't call winter snow white gold in Vermont for nothing.  

I don't have stats yet, it's too early, but this decent snow has got to be driving winter sports enthusiasts to Vermont. The skiing and riding have been great.  There's more than enough snow to support cross country ski centers and snowmobile trails, clubs and the businesses that depend on them. 

That's good for the economy, as it's keeping people in tourism-related businesses employed. The fine folks at the Vermont Department of Taxes are probably not complaining about any extra sales tax revenue. 

Plus, this snow feels good, or at least emotionally comforting.  

Let's face it. Many of us do get sick of winter, frustrated by it. But it also feels pretty unsettling to wander your back yard in a light sweater amid 50 degree temperatures and no snow on the ground this time of year. 

We were doing that just a year ago today. On February 10, 2024, the high temperature in Burlington was a record high of 56 degrees. The low was 42 degrees and scattered thunderstorms were reported. In other words, a mid-February day was typical of spring. Definitely weird. 

We don't have the unsettling, snow-free feeling going on this February.  Predicting highs in the 20s today won't feel particularly springlike. 

Winters are of course trending warmer due to climate change, as mentioned.  Actually this winter isn't particularly cold or snowy, but compared to recent ones, it feels old fashioned. Even with climate change, we'll still have the occasional winter that brings us some decent snow. 

BAD NEWS

The only hint of bad news with this snowier regime is springtime.  Chances are we'll go through the usual freeze/thaw cycle this spring and the snow and ice will gradually melt. 

That would be great.

But given how unpredictable things have gotten in this age of climate change, we could see trouble if the snow keeps building up, and then all of a sudden the temperature soars to 60 degrees with downpours. 

That would set us up for another flood. Especially since river ice is thicker and more widespread than in recent winters, thanks to a some cold nights we've managed to see this season. That's a recipe for ice jams. 

But let's not worry about that for now.  We'll just step aside and let the Vermont snow lovers rejoice. 

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Little Change In Forecast; Quick, Heavy Snow South, Less North

Increasing clouds looking southwest late this afternoon
in St. Albans, Vermont. Notice the darker clouds on
the southwest horizon, that's the direction the
snow is coming from. 

Clouds overhead were thickening up quickly late this afternoon over Vermont as our next snowfall approaches our doorstep. 

I haven't seen much change in the forecast since this morning.  Most of the southern half of Vermont can expect a solid 6 to 9 inches of snow overnight while the northern half gets two to six. 

The two inch totals still look like they'll be closest to the Canadian border and the six inch totals would happen a little below Middlebury and Montpelier. 

THE PARTICULARS

Even though this thing is moving super fast, the timing of when the snow will start tonight has been pushed back by maybe an hour or so.  

Southwest Vermont should start getting in on the action around 8 or 9 p.m. or so, while most of central and northern Vermont starts to see the flakes fly around 10 or 11 p.m.

The Northeast Kingdom probably won't see much of anything until midnight or a little after.

The bottom line is, if you have early evening plans tonight, you can probably squeak them in.  Any later night carousing and you going to have to deal with snowy roads, snowy sidewalks, just snow.

National Weather Service snowfall prediction map is
little changed form this morning. This update was issued
this afternoon. 

Once it gets there. the snow will really come down hard in southern Vermont. It'll be a lot like Thursday when it'll go from flurries to heavy snow in less than a half hour. 

In the northern half of Vermont, the snow won't come down as hard. But it will be enough to get the roads messy enough, which is why we should just call it an early night.  Rest up for tomorrow's Super Bowl. 

The storm will mostly be in and out of here with eight to ten hours, a real quickie. When the sun comes up, it'll be almost  over in western Vermont and will end by mid to late-morning east. 

If you MUST drive tomorrow, wait until at least mid-morning as the main roads should be getting pretty much cleared up by them. 

SUNDAY

Oh, what a great day for outdoor winter fun!  Just a classic Vermont February day.

The snow will be light and fluffy, so it'll be relatively easy to clean up.  It won't be great for snowball fights and snowmen - the snow is not nearly sticky enough. But for skiing, riding, cross country skiing, snowshoeing or just admiring the scenery, it will be one of the nicer days this winter. 

We won't have much sun, but temperatures should reach the mid and upper 20s, which is pretty comfortable for winter sports. We won't have much of a breeze, either, so wind chills won't be much of a factor. And we won't be annoyed by blowing snow. 

Given the very nice weather we had today, I guess this weekend is the pick of the winter. 

OUTLOOK

Enjoy the pleasant interlude Sunday, because much of the rest of this month is still looking a little cranky in the weather department. Extended forecasts through the third week of the month suggest colder than normal temperatures and chances lean toward above normal precipitation.

Which hints at a chance of a continued snowy month. 

Specifically, we trend somewhat colder Monday and Tuesday. Not absolutely frigid, but you'll notice a nip in the air, and some modest wind chills.

We won't get much snow in the first half of the week, but a few snow showers could appear Monday. And some snow showers and locally heavy snow squalls could make an appearance Tuesday night. That'll add a couple inches of snow to higher elevations, but no more than a dusting to an inch in the valleys. 

Things get interesting Thursday. We're either in for another decent snowfall or a mixed precipitation mess. 

That'll be courtesy of what will amount to two storm systems operating in tandem. One might go by to our  northwest or over us, and another looks like it'll slide by just to our south. At least as forecasts stands now.

If the storm going to our northwest or over us is the dominate of the two, we get a burst of snow followed by a little mixed precipitation. If the southern one dominates, it'll be mostly or exclusively snow. 

Pick your poison. We have time to decide, as we won't have clarification on what will happen Thursday until we get further into the upcoming week.

In the meantime, enjoy the lovely, Champagne powder we're about to see tonight. 

While Vermont Mountains Bask In Snow For A Change, Valleys Continue To Struggle With Snow Cover

A snow squall manages to put down another 1.5 inches
of snow in St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday. Vermont
valleys continue to lack snow, while many mountain
areas have a decent snow cover for a change. 

It continues to be a winter of two very different Vermonts in one season.

Many mountain locations are basking in some of the best snow conditions in years for skiing and riding, while many valleys can't seem to hold on to their snow cover. 

A big part of the problem is a persistent weather pattern that has favored snowfalls in the central and  northern Green Mountains while valleys get cheated. 

Another issue is something we've dealt with frequently in the past couple of decades; Frequent winter thaws. As climate change has taken hold, it's gotten a lot easier for temperatures to get above freezing in Vermont even in what should be the coldest times of the year. 

Most recent winters have features spells where temperatures rise well into the 40s and 50s, sometimes near 60, melting snow even in the highest elevations. These warm spells have also lasted for several days in a row.

Hard to keep a snow cover under those conditions. 

This winter, the thaws have been brief and not all that warm, which is why the mountains have hung on to their snow cover.  The very thin snow cover in some valleys evaporates as we occasionally see days that get into the mid 30s and low 40s. Higher terrain has mostly stayed below freezing, with only brief excursions into the mid-30s.   . 

So far this winter, Burlington has not gone longer than eight days in a row with continuous subfreezing temperatures, so the bits of snow the city gets don't last long. (The record for longest stretch of continuously at or below freezing weather is 51 days from December 22, 1976 to February 10, 1977).

The result is there's never been more than five inches of snow on the ground in Burlington this winter, and then, only pretty briefly.  Meanwhile, the snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield reached 66 inches by Wednesday, which is above the average of 50 inches for late January. 

THE LATEST SNOW AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday was yet another example of mountains rich in snow and valleys losing out.  Most valleys saw one to three inches of snow, while parts of the northern Green Mountains saw more than eight inches.

Valleys in central and southern Vermont also once again briefly got above freezing. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all had highs Wednesday in the upper 30s.

I managed to eke out 3.2 inches of snow here in St. Albans, for a total snow depth of five inches, the most I've seen all winter. A snow squall in the late morning boosted my total. See video at the bottom of this post. 

A five inch snow depth is not exactly overwhelming, and forecasts indicate I shouldn't expect much more anytime soon. At least I haven't broken my back shoveling deep, soggy wet snowfalls like we've seen in recent winters, so I'm thankful for that. 

This state of affairs will our winter weather pattern will continue. 

Another fairly minor system zips through Friday and Friday night, bringing precipitation mostly to southern Vermont. But once again, after a cold Thursday, most valleys in Vermont will end up just above freezing again by Friday afternoon. Rain will probably actually mix with the snow in some parts of southern Vermont. 

After turning cold again Saturday, yet another relatively minor system will poke temperatures up in to the upper 30s and low 40s again on Monday, leading to valley thawing and perhaps a little rain mixed with snow, but probably another inch or two of snow up in the mountains.

VIDEO

A St. Albans, Vermont snow squall at least briefly makes things look pretty wintery. The squall deposited 1.5 inches of snow atop 1.7 inches that hit earlier in the morning.  At least it was pretty. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Despite Better Weather This Winter, Climate Change Is Changing The Face Of Vermont Winter Recreation

Ice fishing enthusiasts on Lake Champlain several 
years ago. Climate change has made many winter
sports and recreation seasons shorter and more
unreliable than in the past. 

By historical standards, this December in Vermont has been no great shakes in terms of winter weather.
 

But in at least parts of the state, perhaps the whole state, this was  the most wintry December since 2019, and a rare exception to the balmy Decembers of the past few decades.

That's not saying much. The record warmth and rain in  the final few days of 2024, spelled more trouble for a potentially beleaguered industry.  

We're talking ski areas, and especially outfits related to cross country skiing and snow shoeing, snowmobiling, ice fishing and outdoor skating. 

Traditional winter weather has returned now that it's January. It's cold, and some of the ski resorts got decent shot of snow in the past couple of days.  Even if this winter turns out to be the much colder and snowier than what we've gotten used to in the past couple of decades, it will probably be an outlier.  With climate change, strangely balmy winters are here to stay. 

Which makes us question the future of Vermont's storied winter sports and recreation industry.  At the very least that industry is changing. And  will continue to change. 

Our ski resorts' ever increasing reliance on snowmaking is well documented. This is especially true for smaller independent resorts,  Big conglomerates like Vail can weather a bad ski season in say, Colorado, because their other resorts elsewhere in the world might save the day with better snow.

Marketplace, with airs on National Public Radio, recently took a look at the Bolton Valley Ski Area in Vermont.

Bolton has heavily invested in snow making in recent years so it's ready to take advantage of any moments when it's cold enough to manufacture the flakes. Since the family that runs the resort bought it in 2017, they've invested $1 million in snowmaking, notes Marketplace. 

The resort has had other trouble with likely climate change-related issues this year. The access road to the resort was essentially wiped out by flash floods in July. Repairs to the road barely finished before the ski season started.

CROSS COUNTRY SKIING

The Bolton ski area has a relatively high base elevation, at about 2,000 feet, so they're more likely to see snow than rain, compared to places in the valleys. Which brings us to businesses like cross country ski centers. 

Last winter's record warmth and lack of snow meant that Vermont's 26 ski touring centers had about 50 percent fewer visitors than the prior winter, which also fell well short of a banner year. 

New Hampshire Public Radio last March ran a piece about how cross country skiing, particularly school competitions in the sport, are having a tough time in the Green Mountain State. Says NHPR:

"Kate Hale, a postdoc studying show hydrology at the University of Vermont, says the winter season is shrinking in Vermont due to climate change. 

'Snow on is occurring almost two weeks later on average in the year and snow off is now occurring about a week earlier in the spring,' Hale says. 

On top of the shrinking length of the season, Hale said that Vermont is seeing an increasing amount of rain-on-snow events."

Kind of like what's going on this weekend and early in the week.  You finally manage to get a snowpack, albeit a thin one, but still enough to cross country ski. Then it's suddenly 50 degrees and raining so you have to start over again with the snow. 

Hale told NHPR that Vermont/s snowpack depth has declined about 13 percent between 1965 and 2022.

That really takes a toll in cross country teams that are based in the warmest, lowest parts of Vermont, like the Champlain Valley.

Last year, the South Burlington cross country team had to take buses up to the higher elevation Sleepy Hollow Ski Center in higher elevation Huntington. But the travel time interferes with homework and sleep for team members, so that's not great, either. 

As the Waterbury Roundabout/Barre Times Argus noted in September, the longer summers and shorter, less snowy winters are changing the face of outdoor recreation in Vermont, as people gravitate toward hiking and mountain biking and away from snowshoeing and cross country skiing. 

SNOWMOBILES

 Vermont Public Radio's podcast Brave Little State last March had an eye opening look at snowmobiling in Vermont. 

In 2001, the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers did an economic impact study of snowmobiling in the Green Mountain State.  Reports Brave Little State:

"That study estimated that snowmobilers that year spend about $511 million on gas, food, lodging and snowmobiles - including parts and service. That figure also includes vehicle registration and VAST membership fees, which go right back into the organization."

Turns out that 2001 study was done near the heyday of snowmobiling in Vermont. Since then, VAST is now selling  half the number of annual trail passes than it did a couple decades ago. The Vermont Agency of Transportation says the number of snowmobile registrations is down by half. 

Meanwhile, the cost of gas, insurance and trail maintenance is going up. Especially since the snow has become so unreliable in Vermont due to our warmer winters. 

On top of all that, floods in the summer of 2023 caused $4 million in damage to VAST trailers. Additional flooding caused more damage in 2024,

Cindy Locke, executive director of VAST, told Brave Little State: "Will we survive this? I don't know. You know, I don't know if snowmobiling will survive, you know, winters without snow. I know they won't. Like we won't survive after  just a few, if we have brown winters." 

 ICE FISHING

On Lake Champlain, what had been in the past reliable annual ice events have been interrupted and canceled by warm weather in recent years. 

Last year, The Pond Hockey Classic on Malletts Bay in Colchester was canceled.  A major Lake Champlain winter ice fishing derby was canceled for the second winter in a row due to thin or nonexistent ice. 

A 2020 study indicates below freezing periods have declined by nearly three weeks since 1960.  That has shortened or in some cases eliminated the period of time in winter when lake ice is relatively safe for ice fishing. 

Which isn't good, since tourism based on ice fishing amounts to expenditures of $147 million per year, according to information from the University of Vermont.

THIS WINTER

I don't know what the rest of this winter will bring. December brought mixed results, with some decent snow cover at times, but also some pretty intense thaws. Overall this winter is almost guaranteed to be colder than last winter, as 2023-24 was the warmest one on record.

Snowfall so far this winter has been unimpressive. You can get decent snows with slightly warmer than average winters, so it's not like the odd winter in Vermont can't bring deep snows. 

But that seems to be gradually getting less and less likely as the climate change years go by. The face of winter outdoor sports in Vermont is changing, and in many cases fading. Athletic types are going to need to get used to embracing warmer weather sports. 

 

Today's Vermont Snow On Schedule; Still Looking At A Decent Powder Dump

Forecast hasn't changed much for today. A general four
to six inch dump of powder by this evening. 

Right on schedule, snow was spreading north to south across Vermont as of 8 a.m. and it will cover the entire state by late morning. 

In places in the north where it wasn't snowing, it was trying to. Snow was falling from the clouds, but encountering dry air on the way down and evaporating.

This is what usually happens at the start of a snowfall. The evaporating snow moistens the air, and the snowflakes gradually make it further and further down as the atmosphere gets more humid, until finally the snow reaches the ground on valley floors.  

That's why you see the tops of the mountains get blurry first when it's about to snow, and that blurriness slowly descends down the slopes until it's snowing where you're standing.

The forecast hasn't changed much since last night, with pretty much all of Vermont getting a pretty uniform coating of four to six inches of powder. The heaviest snow will come between about noon and 6 p.m.

The afternoon commute home will be tricky with snow covered roads. The snowplows and salt shakers will surely be out helping. Just take it slow and try to avoid those few idiots on the highways that mess things up for everybody. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington in their forecast discussion offered up the following tidbit: 

The snow consistency will be powdery, of course. Accumulations will be a little deeper than forecast if we don't get a lot of wind in the atmosphere. That will create big flakes that make a very fluffy accumulation of say, six inches, which would pack down to three inches within  couple days.

On the other hand, if there is more wind up above us, some of those big snowflakes would get torn apart into fragments. That will lead to a slightly lower accumulation, but that snow on the ground would be a little more dense. 

But in any event, it will be a nice powder to enjoy if you like winter sports. 

Today's storm will contain no mix or rain. No strong winds. No power outages.  Finally! A storm that will do Vermont more good than harm. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's still appears this will by far be Vermont's coldest week so far this winter. 

Which isn't saying much. 

Temperatures will continue a decline, so that by Friday and Saturday. highs will be in the upper single numbers to low teens and lows will bottom out within a few degrees either side of zero.

That's pretty tame when you consider record lows this time of year even in the banana belt Champlain Valley are in the minus 20s this time of year. 

There will be patches of light snow and flurries around Vermont Wednesday through Saturday, especially in the northern Green Mountains, but it won't amount to much. 

A warming trend starts Monday, but I don't know whether that will get cut off at the pass.  A surge of warm air will be crossing the nation and could give us well above normal temperatures next week.

But some weather models bring a cold front down from Canada, and a passing Arctic  high pressure system in Quebec could keep us on the cold side. Or delay a warmup by a couple days. 

Flip a coin on that one, it's the best we can do for such an extended forecast. 

Surprise! Decent Vermont Snowfall Now In the Cards For Tuesday

Unlike most storms, the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington is predicting pretty uniform snow
totals Tuesday in Vermont. If this forecast pans out,
almost all of us will see somewhere between four
and six inches of fresh powder on Tuesday.

 Well, that escalated today!

A winter weather advisory is now in effect for all of Vermont Tuesday. What had been expected to be a very light snowfall has turned into a decent, moderate sized hit.  

Predicted accumulations are pretty uniform throughout the state with most of us probably in for four to six inches of powder.

A coastal storm that was expected to miss us by a wide margin is now expected to track a little closer to the New England coast, enabling it to join forces with a disturbance coming in from the west. The result?  A not-spectacular snowstorm but decent dump for us. 

It'll be a big help for winter sports in the state. Especially for snowmobiles, snow shoeing and cross country skiing in low elevations that don't have that much snow. 

For a change, the snow is showing no signs that it will want to mix with anything. It'll just be a powdery snow all day Tuesday, as temperatures hold in the 20s. 

It'll probably start snowing lightly in Vermont during the early to mid morning, and peak in the afternoon with a period of moderate snow. 

Road conditions won't be great. There should be a little snow on the roads for the morning commute and even more in the evening. 

There won't be a lot of wind with this thing, and as I said, the snow will be powdery. That means we don't have to worry about another round of power outages this time. 

Unlike the pleasant snowstorm we had on January 7, this snow will stick around for a little while anyway. The January 7 snow melted or got crushed into miserable slush and ice on January 10 when we got hit by the first of two big, destructive windstorms.

This time, it will stay cold for days. In fact, Friday and Saturday still look very cold. By very cold I mean many of us will be below zero at night, highs will only be in the single numbers and teens, and wind chills could be well below zero.   

This being the winter of 2023-24 the delightful new snow cover won't last forever. Longer range forecasts are trending stronger and stronger toward another extended heat wave that would probably start about a week from tomorrow.   

By the way, there's always last minute adjustments to every storm, so I'm sure there will be changes to the forecast when we wake up tomorrow morning. 

Floods, Thaw NOT Good For Vermont/New England Ski Areas And For Tourist Revenue

Flooding in Williston, Vermont Tuesday, part of which
was caused by snowmelt from mountains you see
in the background. Those mountains, and the ski
areas up there, need a return to winter fast, as the 
storm has also damaged prospect for crowds
during the important Christmas week holiday 

 The destructive flooding we had in Vermont was easily the worst aspect of the warm storm we endured this week. 

But there's another potentially substantial problem: We're on the cusp of an important holiday week that typically draws thousands to Vermont for winter sports. The bare ground, news of the flood and forecasts of continued warm weather aren't helping. 

Businesses need the tourist revenue, and Vermont needs the tax revenue.

Before this week, it seemed like the ski season would be off to a good start. 

Those heavy, wet snowstorms in late November and early December that kept causing power outages had a silver lining: They built up a base of snow at ski resorts and other places that host winter activities.

The weather was warmer than normal, but cold enough for resorts to also make snow. 

Then Monday's storm hit.

SKI AREA DAMAGE

The flooding caused a lot of damage, but I haven't heard of any of our major ski areas suffering major physical losses.  So we're lucky in that regard here in Vermont. 

Some New Hampshire and Maine resorts DID suffer damage. That there would be this much New England flood destruction in December is uncharted territory

The road leading up to the Sunday River ski area in Maine was entirely washed out by the storm.  That cut off the resort, and left some people stranded at condos at Sunday River.

A temporary bridge was being brought in to reopen access. But it will be a challenge. The ground floor of some condos at Sunday River reportedly suffered flood damage. 

Sunday River officials said they would reopen as soon as temporary repairs and snow making equipment could be brought up and running again, but they had no timetable. 

In New Hampshire, Loon Mountain, Attitash, Canmore and Wildcat Mountain were all closed on Tuesday due to flooding. They are expected to open soon. 

VERMONT RESORTS

Here in Vermont, Mad River Glen was forced to close temporarily. It sits above the hard-hit Mad River Valley and suffered from water runoff and a loss of snow.  However, Mad River Glen reopened today with freshly groomed trails.  

Jay Peak and Killington, and probably other ski areas in Vermont, closed during the height of the storm Monday due to heavy rains and high wind, but they are now operating normally. 

As temperatures dropped Tuesday, the resorts surely fired up their snow making machines. At least the snow making operations have plentiful supply of water at the moment. 

Resorts are putting the best spin on this: "We are continuing to make snow and groom out our terrain nicely, so we expect conditions to get better and better as we make our way through the week," Killington Resort said on its web site on Wednesday. 

In Stowe, damage to a privately owned culvert reduced Route 108, which leads to the resort, down to one lane.  As of Wednesday, a temporary traffic signal had been installed to deal with the problem.  The resort, like pretty much all of them in Vermont, reported it was making snow and grooming trails to fix damage from the storm.

Slightly below normal temperatures are forecast today and tomorrow, which will favor snow making. It'll warm up over the holiday weekend, but most resorts will still be able to make snow.

The forecast turns problematic toward the middle of next week. As it stands now, it looks like we might see another rain storm. It won't be nearly the scale of what we had Monday, but any rain would dampen skier enthusiasm at the very least. 

Another issue is publicity.  I'm sure the vast majority of avid skiers know that northern New England was hit by a major December storm and flood, so that could discourage people from coming here. 

Meanwhile, cross country ski centers and snowmobile trails surely took a hit. First of all, there's no snow. So no skiing and no snowmobiling. Additionally, the flooding might have caused some damage to snowmobile trails, just after the Vermont  Association of Snow Travelers spend months fixing the trails after the summer floods. 

I haven't heard  how much damage there is to VAST trails, but it's likely not as serious as it was in the summer.

There's always hope for the rest of the winter sports season, of course. It could turn gloriously snowy in January and February for all we know, and that could make the overall winter of 2023-24 not so bad after all.  

Some long range forecasts call for winter to finally arrive at or just after the New Year, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

 

 

Vermont Floods Threatened Cherished Snowmobiling And Winter Sports, But Repairs Saved The Season

A still from a YouTube video by Pat Moore shows
this summer's destruction around Okemo Mountain
in Ludlow, Vermont. Repairs were made in 
time for this winter's ski season. 

 Now that much of Vermont has a snow cover, I'm sure lots of people are chomping at the bit for snowmobile season. Also skiing and snowboarding. 

Due to this past summer's horrific floods, the snowmobile season for the winter of 2023-24 could have been curtailed quite a bit. However, volunteers saved the day, er, the winter. 

The Vermont Association of Snow Travelers reported at least $2 million in flood damage to parts of its 4,500 mile network of trails. 

As WPTZ reports, however, at least 90 percent of the damage has been repaired in time for winter. Jim Fay, president of VAST's board of directors, told the television station: 

"Volunteers are spending hours on end, during the week, on weekends, getting stuff brought back up, and we're in good shape."

Fay said volunteers are using personal equipment and hiring local construction companies and paying out of pocket to fix trails "They're going above and beyond," Fay said. 

Two VAST suspension bridges over the Winooski River, one in East Montpelier and the other in Waterbury, were severely damaged and will remain out of commission through this winter. VAST is working with FEMA to obtain funding for those repairs. 

Some Vermont ski areas suffered flood damage, but it wasn't enough to disrupt this winter's ski season.

In hard-hit Ludlow, Okemo had to close for summer activities for a couple weeks due to damage, mostly in town and not so much on the slopes.

Okemo's slopes did suffer some minor erosion damage, but that has long since been fixed.  Some buildings suffered water damage, but that, too has been repaired. 

As of Thanksgiving, only 12 of Okemo's 129 trails were open for skiing and riding, but that's only because it's early in the season.. As snow making and natural snow (hopefully!) pile up, Okemo will expand its offerings. 

Killington, the "Beast of the East" also suffered some flood damage in July, and was forced to curtail some summer operations for awhile.

Two base lodges, Bear Mountain and Skyeship, were heavily damaged, WPTZ reported.  Those buildings weren't used in the summer, and have since been repaired for winter. Some ski trails were also damaged, but have since been fixed and will be used as usual this winter.

Infrastructure in hard hit ski towns - like roads, sewers, electricity and such - have long since been restored and won't be an issue for people visiting during ski season. However, some favorite restaurants and shops have not yet reopened.  

All these tourism-related businesses are of course completely tied to Vermont's economic health. If tourists are discouraged from visiting Vermont  because of flood damage - or fears that the destruction would harm their experience - we all suffer. 

I haven't found data on how the summer flood affected the autumn foliage tourism season. But I do know the floods dented Vermont's summer figures. 

Vermont Business Magazine at the end of August reported tax revenue in most categories fell short in July, the first month of the state's fiscal year. 

The target for rooms and meals tax revenue in July was $14.3 million, but actual revenue was $13.5 million. That's not a crash, but it fell short. Other revenue streams that were less related to the flooding also fell short.

So, bottom line, we'd better hope we see a lot of winter visitors to Vermont.  We'd also better hope for big dumps of mountain snow this winter. That's a tall order in a winter in which El Nino is raging and climate change isn't helping. 

I'm among legions of Vermonters who don't like shoveling snow in the winter. But I don't know about you, but I"m completely willing to take one for the team. 

Saturday Evening Vermont Update: Snowstorm To Be A Little Bigger, Windier Than First Thought

When the first snowflakes began to fall in St. Albans, Vermont
around 1 p.m. today, it was a throwback to bleak
November, but as the snow intensified......

 Some changes in the forecast have popped up from the National Weather Service in South Burlington regarding the "Hallmark Christmas snowstorm" Vermont is now experiencing.

In many areas, snow accumulations will be a little deeper than forecasts from this morning.  More wind is going to mix in late tonight and tomorrow, so there now looks like there will be some blowing snow issues.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for western Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.  In the Champlain Valley, four or five inches of new snow had been expected by dawn tomorrow. Now, this area is under the gun for seven or eight inches. Not a huge difference, and not an enormous snowstorm, but still pretty decent.

The winter storm warning for eastern Vermont remains in effect. Expected snowfall there has stayed at 5 to 10 inches. 

Temperatures in most of Vermont had fallen a few degrees from this morning. By late afternoon, readings were mostly in the mid-20s. This means a powdery snow with no trouble from power outages.

One very important thing to look out for:  Ground temperatures are quite warm for this time of year, especially after the record heat in Vermont Thursday and early Friday. This means the roads are, and will be overnight more slick than you'd expect from such a fluffy snowfall.

The snow is partially melted, then re-freezing on the pavement to create sheets of ice, and then snow accumulates on top of that. Take even a little more care on the roads than you normally would in a winter snowstorm.

Far southern Vermont is having a far nastier experience with this storm than central and northern Vermont. Mixed precipitation has worked as far north as Bennington and Brattleboro. Bennington reported freezing rain at 4 p.m., for instance. 

....by 4 p.m. we were much closer to a Christmas season 
winter wonderland

The two southernmost counties will have to contend with snow, sleet and freezing rain, especially along and south of Route 9 overnight. It doesn't look like the mix will make it very far north from where it is now.

Since the storm seems a little stronger, winds will be more of a factor as the system departs early tomorrow.  These won't be screaming strong winds, but gusts in the 20 to 28 mph range late tonight and Sunday will keep snow blowing around some 

For winter sports enthusiasts, Sunday is shaping up to be a decent powder day. 

In Burlington, snowfall for this season so far was running 7.2 inches below normal, so this storm should bring us pretty close to normal for this time of year.

However, very little snow is expected this coming week, so we'll fall a bit behind again.