Windy, Changeable Weather Week Ahead In Vermont.

This is one forecast map for this Friday morning
from the National Weather Service. All those dark
lines, called isobars, when close together like
you see on many parts of this map, indicate
windy weather. 

A new week is starting and so is a new weather pattern. 

The last in a series of frigid air blasts has come into the United States. This time the worst for the cold air came down from Canada well west off us, plunging southward  from the northern Great Plains to the Gulf Coast. 

Wind chill and cold weather advisories are up in a broad north to south band from North Dakota and Minnesota all the way down to the Gulf Coast and northern Florida. 

We're cold up here in Vermont, but not wildly so.  Since the Arctic air blasted down to our west, it's been able to modify on its way here. It helps that it's early in the season. The Great Lakes are mostly still unfrozen. Even Hudson Bay up in Canada still has some open water. 

That relatively warm water helped take some of the bite out of the frigid air as tried to head our way. 

The bottom line is, the cold we're experiencing here isn't as bad as some of the earlier spells this month that took a more direct aim at us - straight shots south through Quebec.

The chill also is turning out to be not quite as deep as earlier forecasts.  Less get into the daily outlook:

TODAY

We'll be in the 20s today under cloudy skies. There might be some glimpses of sun, but overall it'll be another darkish December day. We'll have scattered light snow and flurries around this morning. Then, after something of a break, some snow showers will break out this evening and tonight. 

This will be mostly upslope snow in the central and northern Green Mountains. It won't be like late last week, when those mountains got a huge dump of snow. This time, only two to four inches of new fluff will come down up there. It does look like this time, the snow might back westward into the Champlain Valley, so some areas there might get an inch or two

MONDAY/TUESDAY

This will be the coldest day of the week, but again, nothing extreme. Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 20 for most of us. Lows overnight into Tuesday morning should reach the single digits above zero for most of Vermont.  Tuesday will also be chilly but relatively calm with highs in the 20s.

WEDNESDAY

The warmer weather pattern change will be underway by Wednesday as pretty much everyone in the Lower 48 loses the Arctic air.  Here in Vermont, we'll warm up into the 30s as a pretty moisture-starved  storm passes to our north. Vermont will get a few inconsequential rain or snow showers out of this one 

It's been a windy month in Vermont, especially in the Champlain Valley. Each of the past eight days have featured gusts over 30 mph in Burlington. 

After a few somewhat calmer days today through Tuesday, the wind will crank up again Wednesday., especially in the Champlain Valley. More gusts to 30 mph or more.

THURSDAY

A stronger storm will rapidly approach from the west on Thursday. This one, too, will go to our north and drag some warm air into the Green Mountain State.  Expect another strong surge of south wins Thursday, and gusts will be stronger than those on Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

It's a little soon to say how strong, but I imagine there's a chance the National Weather Service might issue a wind advisory for gusts to maybe 45 mph in a few spot. We'll keep an eye on that. 

This storm will have a bigger batch of warm air, and more moisture with it. For snow lovers who have been ecstatic over this month's weather, it looks like the party might be temporarily over by Thursday night. 

It looks like a decent slug of rain will blow through the state Thursday night. There might be a little consolation snow on the back side of the storm on Friday, as winds remain strong, but shift to the northwest. 

BEYOND THURSDAY

As warm air surges west to east across most of the United States, we'll be near the northern fringe of it all as we head into Christmas week. The southern two thirds of the U.S. might have some record high temperatures, but we'll miss out on that here in New England.

Instead, fast moving, not especially strong but possibly windy storms will keep zipping on by, moving west to east overhead or to our north. . It's too soon to tease out the details, but it looks like we'll have fast changes between sort of warm and sort of chilly temperatures. Each system will bring bouts of rain or mixed precipitation, with some periods of snow thrown in. 

Probably nothing super heavy, but enough to really keep meteorologists on their toes.  

 

Remarkable Vermont Temperature Crash On Friday, But It Won't Last

Some interesting patterns in an otherwise dull gray
overcast in St. Albans, Vermont late Friday afternoon,
Friday was much cooler than the most of the rest of
our sticky, steamy July was. 

Well, Friday was a change, that's for sure.  

Unlike most of Vermont's July, which featured a lot of warmth and humidity, it got downright chilly.  Especially under the rain clouds in southern Vermont. Not that I'm complaining. 

Looking at the receipts, the change in the weather was striking. Especially for summer, when there's usually not a lot of variability in temperatures. 

Springfield, Vermont really has had a southern flavored summer so far, enduring 15 days so far this year of 90 degrees or more,. 

On Thursday. it was 90 degrees at 4 p.m. in Springfield.  Exactly 24 hours hours later, at 4 p.m. Friday, it was 62 degrees. That 28-degree drop must have been a shock to the system.

Over in Bennington, it was only 61 degrees at 4 p.m. In Vermont this time of year, it should be at least 80 degrees at that hour. 

As expected, the heavier rain Friday was confined to far southern Vermont. Bennington picked up 1.19 inches, and Woodford State Park had an inch.

Once you got about 20 miles north of Route 9, precipitation was much lighter. Townsend and Springfield only had a quarter inch of rain. Rutland had only 0.02 inches. North of that, just sprinkles. 

Away from Vermont, also as expected, there was flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. Like there's been a zillion times this summer, it seems. 

Back here in the Green Mountain state, skies cleared even faster than expected Friday evening, so temperatures were able to get pretty cool by this morning, especially along and north of Route 4, where it was clear the longest. Most of northern and central Vermont was down in the 40s. 

The perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 37 degrees. Burlington was at 51 degrees at 6 a.m. today, the coldest temperature there since June 3.

COOL AT FIRST  

The peak of summer is over, and temperatures Friday and this morning seem to prove it. But summer is not done with us, at all.  We have a lot of warm air to get to. Eventually. 

The dreariness we saw Friday is gone. It's back to bright sunshine, which will boost afternoon readings back up into the 70s.  That's still a little cool for this time of year, but not be that much. A few puffy clouds will grace our  blue skies. today, so it's be pretty out there.  We'll only have a  faint hint of that persistent wildfire smoke from Canada.

Dawn Saturday will be just as chilly as this morning. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will ensure that. But another sunny day Saturday will bring temperatures well into the 70s to near 80. The wildfire smoke might be a little more noticeable than today, but not so thick as to be a major health hazard. 

Saturday night will be another cool, comfortable night.

THE WARMUP

This cool spell will be short-lived, much shorter than forecasts from about a week ago indicated. This is one persistent summer.

By Sunday, we'll be back in the 80s as that cool, big high pressure moves off to our east a little. Every day next week will be in the 80s for most of us. There could even be a 90 degree reading in hot spots like Springfield. 

Usually, in the summer, once big high pressure passes to the east, both temperatures and humidity surges

This time the temperature will definitely go up, but the humidity will stay pretty reasonable. Dew points near 50 today and tomorrow will rise to near 60 or starting Sunday and stay that way going through at least Wednesday. That's vaguely humid if you're sensitive to it, but it's nowhere near oppressive and awful.

The humidity won't go up much because the strong high pressure that's causing this long period of sunshine and dry weather will stay near Quebec and New England. It won't have a good connection to the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. 

Forest Fires

The long stretch of mostly sunny, dry weather, with minimal chances of showers, means we'll have to watch for forest fire hazards. We already had a forest fire in Fair Haven last week that covered at least 12 acres. The was a small brush fire in Alburgh a couple days ago. 

I have a feeling that some errant camp fires or backyard burns or flicked cigarettes could touch off a few more fires in and around Vermont this week. It won't be anything cataclysmic like what's going on in Canada, but we still don't need to add to the problem. 

There are signs we could see a period of hot, and notably more humid air toward the end of next week. That's a long way off and things could still change. 

But it'll be awhile before we see the cool, brisk and crisp breezes of autumn. 

It won't be  until later next week that the humidity will be able to surge in.

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

After Cold Winter, U.S Finally Gets A Glimpse of Spring; Vermont Only Gets Brief Edges Of It

Despite the vaguely mild weather today, it will be a
while yet until Vermont sees warm spring rain showers
like this one in St. Albans, Vermont, May, 2023.

Spring has sprung -  temporarily at least - in much of the nation following a brutally cold mid-February in many parts of the U.S.  

The warmth interrupted what had been a cold winter in the U.S. while most of the rest of the world stayed warm through the season. 

Some places that were bone chillingly cold suddenly felt like summer. 

As the Washington Post notes, it was 64 degrees Sunday in Aberdeen, South Dakota, breaking the record high of 60 for the date. Just five days earlier, it was 25 below in Aberdeen. 

Buffalo, Wyoming got to 61 degrees Sunday, breaking the old record high for the date by four degrees. 

Temperatures could flirt with 70 degrees as far north as South Dakota today, where rare winter red flag warnings are in effect for fire danger amid dry, windy conditions. 

The warmth in much of the nation comes after a spate of record cold in the middle of the nation and parts of the South last week. 

It looks like much of the central and southeastern United States should stay mostly on the warm side through the first week of March. 

Not so here in Vermont, though. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

In Vermont, we're far from any kind of record highs, but at least it's warmer than it's been. On Monday, the high temperature in Burlington reached 43 degrees.  I know that's not especially warm, but it's still the hottest it's been since January 1. 

If Monday's high of 43 holds for the month, only two Februaries since 2000 had lower high temperatures for the month. 

It's possible it could get even slightly warmer today, given how balmy the overnight was in at least parts of Vermont. It stayed at or above 40 degrees in Burlington continuously from 2 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. today, when the city finally dipped into the upper 30s. through 6 a.m today.

A chilly rain that will move in this afternoon will probably keep temperatures near 40 degrees, though. 

Historically, we've had lots of years in which January and February temperatures have never gotten past the low 40s. But, in the age of climate change, that's become rare 

Since 2000, only four Januarys had a highest temperature for the month cooler than 2025.  So far at least, there's only been two or three Februarys in the last quarter century with cooler monthly high temperature than this year..

To give you an idea of how warm it can get, today is the anniversary of what I consider the most bonkers February weather day in Vermont history.

The temperature in Burlington on February 25, 2017 soared to 72 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest February temperature on record by an incredible nine degrees. (The previous record high for the month was set two days earlier).

Also on February. 25, 2017, severe evening thunderstorms hit parts of the state an a tornado touched down in western Massachusetts. By just before midnight to complete the day, it was snowing in Burlington.

At least we're not going to go through those extremes in the near future, as we get back to what's going on in the here and now. 

With all the snow we had in the first three weeks of February, Burlington actually pulled ahead of snowfall for the season up to this point in the year.

But now, snowfall is suddenly lacking. For now, anyway. As of today, with no snow in the forecast, today we will slip just under the normal for snowfall up to this date. 

We'll still keep up fairly closely with normal seasonal snow, though. We do have a bit of snow in the forecast as the thaw ends Thursday night and early Friday.   It'll be solidly below freezing all day Friday, and signs point toward maybe a light to perhaps moderate snowfall Saturday 

The frigid air is really planning on rolling in here by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday might not get out of the teens and we could see another excursion into subzero morning lows again Monday.  

Overall, extended forecasts are mixed.  March tend to be all over the place, with blizzards and intense cold one day, and mild sunshine a couple days later.  I have a feeling that's what we'll deal with this March, too.  

The Beginning Of The End Of A Vermont Winter

A crocus emerges from the snow last spring in
St. Albans, Vermont.  Believe it or not, the
harshest part of winter is about to end, but
that doesn't mean we'll escape the occasional
frigid day or snowstorm. 

A Don't let the headline on this post completely fool you. 

We still have a pretty good amount of winter left to go here in Vermont. It's only late February, after all.

Recent winters have been springlike, so when spring really got here in those years, it almost felt anticlimactic. 

This year, we're certainly having a  much  more "traditional" winter this go around.  So for now, we have to harken back to the way seasons used to work before climate change. Many of us have an old fashioned, traditional case of spring fever. 

Right on cue, we are now at what I would consider the beginning of the end of winter. 

It's been pretty hard core in recent weeks up until now. If no more snow falls in Burlington this month, the 31.8 inches of snow the city has gotten this month will make this the sixth snowiest February on record.  The month is also running four degrees or so colder than normal.

(That's the new, warmer normal of course. Had we been having this same exact month back in the 1970s, it would be pretty close to what was then normal).

Even so this is the time of year when we see the harshness of winter begin to break, just a little. You'll see that this coming week with that anticipated thaw. 

Temperature forecasts have actually trended a little warmer for the upcoming week. In lower elevations, you'll probably see noticeably less snow on the ground that you do today.  Most of that will be because the warmth is settling the snow. But some of it will melt. Especially since bits of light rain could fall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in most valleys. 

It all means most of us - except those in higher elevations - have probably see the deepest snow of the winter already.  

The snow won't come close to entirely disappearing, of course. There will still be plenty left by the end of the week. Especially since some additional snow is possible toward Thursday night and Friday when it's expected to start turning colder again. 

A little additional snow is expected up in the mountains off and on all week, so they might end up with a slight net gain in snow cover. That takes us to the next month. 

MARCH

You can obviously see extreme winter conditions in March that are just as bad as the worst that even January can bring.  It's been as cold as 24 below in Burlington in March. Seven of Burlington's top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit in March. 

But in general, even if it's cold - like this March seems like it wants to shape up to be - you see signs the grip of winter is beginning to weaken. 

While we hope to see some thawing in March, we often
also see some big snowy setbacks. Pictured here is the
Pi Day Blizzard in St. Albans, Vermont, March 14, 2017

The sun angle in March  is much higher than it was in December.  So even on blue sky days that are well below freezing, the strength of the afternoon sun melts the south and west sides of snowbanks a little. 

The trunks of trees collect the sun's warmth, and you see the snow melting away from those tree trunks a bit. You start to see rings of bare ground around those trees. 

If light snow falls during the day, chances are the roads won't be as tricky as they would have been earlier in the winter. The sun's heat making its way through the clouds might warm up the pavement a bit, making things less treacherous.

Lake Champlain

Our big Lake Champlain has come closer to freezing over this year than it has since 2019, which is the last time it completely froze. 

There is some open water left on the lake, and the upcoming week's warm spell could remove some of the thin ice on the broad lake.

Lake Champlain could still freeze over completely, but the chances of that happening this year are beginning to diminish. 

It's the sun angle again.  Even it it's cold, the sun can heat up surface of any darker open water, melting the ice next to it a little.  

Still, if we have some calm, subzero nights in early March - which has happened in many years - Lake Champlain could still completely freeze over.  In 2019, the lake froze over briefly on March 8 because the little bit of open water on March 7 that year froze over as temperatures bottomed out to around 0 on the morning of March 8. 

Snow

I mentioned the likely slow melt of the snow in March, but we almost always have snowy setbacks to the slow melt down of our winter snow cover.  

The warming spring air can actually, ironically make snowfall heavier, which is probably part of the reason why so many of those greatest snow have happened in March. 

Large storm systems depend on a contrast of warm, humid air to the south and cold air to the north. 

Once we get into March, the air feeding into storms from the south is warmer and more humid than it would have been in midwinter. Since that warmer, wetter air can hold more moisture, precipitation can be heavier in a March storm than one back in January. 

If that added moisture rides up into the cold air to the north - and if Vermont is in that cold air - we can really get dumped on.  As recently as 2017 the famous Pi-Day blizzard deposited nearly three feet of snow in northern Vermont. 

Since it is warmer in March, as we go through the month, some of the snowstorms will feature wetter, heavier snow, since the temperatures are more likely be near near 32 degrees in a March storm. 

Also, if you're sick of snow, March snow tends to start melting almost immediately after the storm ends. That's especially true as we get deeper into the month. 

The approach of spring comes with a lot of false starts, as we in Vermont know well.  But the trend line is our friend if you're getting tired of winter. 

The normal high temperature today is 33 degree, at least as measured in Burlington. By March 1, it's 36. Exactly a month from now, on March 22, the normal high is up to 43 degrees.

We're at the point now where people who love winter still have plenty of time to enjoy. Those who are less enthusiastic can now start to seek out signs of the end of all these frigid temperatures and huge snowbanks. 

Before you know it, happy yellow daffodils will be dancing in the warm breezes of a Vermont spring. 

Suddenly, Vermont Is Having A (Somewhat) Snowy Winter

Traffic cam image taken just after the snow tapered
off along high elevation Route 17 in Buels Gore,
Vermont shows some pretty tall snowbanks 
lining the road after repeated snow falls this year.

 The mid-sized snowstorm Vermont received Saturday night and early Sunday has really done a nice job helping make the state appear it's having an old-fashioned snowy winter for a change. 

Combined with previous modest snowfalls in the past couple weeks, we're actually reasonably deep in powder for a change

Thanks in large part to climate change most of the several winters have been downright tropical by Vermont standards. 

Last winter was by far the warmest on record.  The six warmest winters on record have all occurred since 2001-02. The top four have all happened since 2015-16.

It began to look like we were headed down a similar path earlier this winter.  December featured some strong thaws and paltry snowfall. January was colder, but most of the snow that did fall hit the mountains and missed the valleys. 

Right as January ended and February started, the snows started coming. Forecasts indicate that for awhile anyway, the snows could keep coming. Heck, it snowed a little again overnight and this morning. 

We're really starting to build a pretty decent snow cover through most of Vermont at this point.  

To be sure, in many if not most areas of Vermont, the season's snowfall at this point is still running below normal, but we're beginning to catch up. 

Through Sunday, the seasonal snowfall in Burlington was 42.6 inches, about ten inches below normal for the date. That's still a lot better than the 27.9 inches of snow Burlington had thought February 9 of last year.  

LACK OF THAWS

Because of a lack of major thaws since New Year's Day  snow depths are better this winter than they have been in recent seasons. Most places outside the deeper, warmer valleys have around a foot or more of snow on the ground. 

Some areas are getting semi-buried. As of Sunday, the snow depth in Greensboro and West Topsham was 29 inches. Westfield had 28 inches on the ground and Braintree was up to 27 inches. 

That's nowhere near any kind of record, but it's up there. 

Mountain summits are doing great.  The spine of the Green Mountains always do better than the valleys when it comes to snow.  But this year is even more disproportionate. 

By Sunday, the snow depth near the summit of Mount Mansfield was 81 inches. Normal for this time of year up there is 57 inches. 

MORE SNOW

As noted in previous forecasts, we have several chances for additional snowfalls in the coming couple weeks, and chances are temperatures will stay at or below normal most of the time for the next couple of weeks. 

That makes even deeper snow cover a good possibility. 

The snow showers (some of them kinda heavy) that have been harassing parts of northern and central Vermont his morning should pretty much disappear by this afternoon.   More snow showers and a possible snow squall or two Tuesday afternoon or evening could dump another one to two inches of fluff on at least some parts of the state. One or two spots could have even a little more than that.  

A storm system expected Thursday might drop a few more inches of snow, though forecasters don't yet know exactly how much. And we still don't know whether a little freezing rain or rain will mix in. We'll have more info on this later tomorrow or Wednesday.

Plus, there's a chance - just a chance - of a larger storm next Sunday. 

SNOW GOOD NEWS

All this is mostly good news. Mostly involving money.  The don't call winter snow white gold in Vermont for nothing.  

I don't have stats yet, it's too early, but this decent snow has got to be driving winter sports enthusiasts to Vermont. The skiing and riding have been great.  There's more than enough snow to support cross country ski centers and snowmobile trails, clubs and the businesses that depend on them. 

That's good for the economy, as it's keeping people in tourism-related businesses employed. The fine folks at the Vermont Department of Taxes are probably not complaining about any extra sales tax revenue. 

Plus, this snow feels good, or at least emotionally comforting.  

Let's face it. Many of us do get sick of winter, frustrated by it. But it also feels pretty unsettling to wander your back yard in a light sweater amid 50 degree temperatures and no snow on the ground this time of year. 

We were doing that just a year ago today. On February 10, 2024, the high temperature in Burlington was a record high of 56 degrees. The low was 42 degrees and scattered thunderstorms were reported. In other words, a mid-February day was typical of spring. Definitely weird. 

We don't have the unsettling, snow-free feeling going on this February.  Predicting highs in the 20s today won't feel particularly springlike. 

Winters are of course trending warmer due to climate change, as mentioned.  Actually this winter isn't particularly cold or snowy, but compared to recent ones, it feels old fashioned. Even with climate change, we'll still have the occasional winter that brings us some decent snow. 

BAD NEWS

The only hint of bad news with this snowier regime is springtime.  Chances are we'll go through the usual freeze/thaw cycle this spring and the snow and ice will gradually melt. 

That would be great.

But given how unpredictable things have gotten in this age of climate change, we could see trouble if the snow keeps building up, and then all of a sudden the temperature soars to 60 degrees with downpours. 

That would set us up for another flood. Especially since river ice is thicker and more widespread than in recent winters, thanks to a some cold nights we've managed to see this season. That's a recipe for ice jams. 

But let's not worry about that for now.  We'll just step aside and let the Vermont snow lovers rejoice. 

 

I'm Now Declaring That Vermont Summer Is Over

Altocumulus clouds cover the sky over St. Albans, 
Vermont last evening. I tend to associate these clouds
with autumn, which is in keeping with my 
thinking that summer is over. 

OK, I've decided, summer is over. 

My ruling is the most subjective of them all, but it's plain our hot, wet, humid summer is behind us.  

That's not to say we won't have any more warm or even hot weather. Or humid spells. We probably will. But the season has turned. 

This feeling that summer is over almost always used to hit in mid to late August. In recent years, it seems like we have to wait until early or even mid-September for the bulk of summer to be over.  

And it's still possible we could have a long stretch of mid-summer like weather as the calendar turns to September. 

But the weather lately has checked all the boxes for calling an end to summer. 

There are so many signs. One is the spots of fall color you see here and there in the otherwise still green landscape of Vermont. That's typical of late August, but there does seem to be a bit more of that color than I usually see this time of year. That could just be my imagination or impression, who knows.

Even the warm spells have an autumn feel. 

Tuesday evening a brief surge of warm, humid air was making its way into Vermont. In full summer, it doesn't take much to bring such weather into the Green Mountain State, so spells of muggy weather don't have much wind when they arrive at our doorstep in, say, July.

But Tuesday evening, as I sat in my outdoor tub enjoying the cool water, I watched the trees sway in a gusty south winds. It's starting to take more force to drive toasty air into Vermont. 

Cold fronts have lately been bringing cooler and cooler air to the Green Mountain State. The opening salvo was those three days that never got out of the 60s for highs last week. It got down to 51 degrees in Burlington this morning. That's not particularly chilly for this time of year, but it was still the coolest morning since June 28.

The forecast has more cool weather on our agenda.  After a brief squirt of somewhat higher humidity Saturday and parts of Sunday, Labor Day promises to be a classic crisp Vermont autumn day with sunshine and highs only reaching the 60s. 

Even the type of cloud cover we're seeing lately screams autumn. Last evening, we had a beautiful display of altocumulus clouds, which look like a series of small cotton balls covering the sky.  I associate this type of cloud with autumn, because it seems I see them most frequently in September or October.

The sounds outdoors have changed, too. I'm hearing far fewer songbirds and plenty more crickets, which is a classic autumn song list, if you will. 

Of course, there are more scientific and less subjective definitions of autumn than my own "feelings" about it. 

Astronomical autumn begins at 8:43 a.m. EDT on September 22. 

Meteorological autumn, which is an easy way for climatologists and others to assess a season's weather, starts September 1 and lasts through November 30.

Summer, at least measured in Burlington, Vermont, looks like it will be among the top five warmest. We were headed toward warmest summer on record, but the last ten days or so of cooler weather looks like it will keep 2020 in the top spot.

And, if Burlington gets at least 0.58 inches of rain during the expected showers on Saturday, it will become the city's tenth wettest summer on record. 

Long range forecasts suggest we'll have a warm, and possibly wet autumn here in Vermont. Long range forecasts aren't always accurate, but those hot predictions ahead of this summer proved accurate. And autumns have definitely trended warmer in recent years across Vermont. 

Seven of the top 10 warmest autumns in Burlington have happened since 2011. So, though summer might be over in my opinion, bouts of summer-like weather still seems to be on the horizon for awhile yet.  

Vermont Mostly Spared From Dangerous Line Of Storms, One More Humid, Stormy Day Then Relief

A badly damaged church in Rome, New York
after a tornado hit the city Tuesday.
Photo from Courtney Finnerty via 
Facebook. 

 A wildly dangerous intense line of storms crossed New York State Tuesday, causing tornadoes, wind damage and flooding. 

Vermont got pretty lucky. Just as that line of storms entered southern and central Vermont, it weakened a little, sparing us from major damage and flooding. 

Yes, there were problems. Trees came down in Danby, Springfield and a handful of other southern Vermont towns. 

Close to 5,000 Vermont homes and businesses lost electricity. Flood alerts popped up i parts of Addison and Rutland counties, and I'm sure there were some instances of relatively minor road and driveway damage.

But it was a close miss, considering what happened in neighboring New York. 

Radar images pretty much confirmed a tornado touchdowns in four places between Rome, New York and just west of Lake George. Winds gusted to 87 mph in nearby Glens Falls, New York. 

The tornado in Rome, New York caused major damage to the city's downtown and nearby neighborhoods. Two churches lost large sections of their roofs, the Capitol Theater in Rome had its windows blown out, and an iconic mural in town was destroyed. Photos on Facebook showed many homes, apartment buildings and businesses with collapsed walls, destroyed roofs and shattered windows

Winds gusted to 79 mph at nearby Griffiss Air Field, and a B-52 at the entrance to the Air Force base was blown several feet off its platform. 

So you see, Vermont really dodged a bullet. Let's see if we can do it again today

HOT AND STORMY

Clouds and an approaching cold front will temper the heat today in the northwestern part of Vermont this afternoon, but the southern and eastern half faces another hot one.

Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the river from White River Junction, has now had an astounding 11 consecutive days with temperatures of 90 degrees or more. They might do it one more time today. 

Nights have been torturous in Vermont as well. Burlington has had 13 days in which the overnight low was 66 or above, with five of those nights not dipping below 70.

Today's the last day of it, but we'll need to deal with more storm and isolated flash flood risks.  

Some scattered showers and storms were beginning to form in New York State ahead of the cold front by mid-morning.

They'll grow stronger and more organized as they head into Vermont. The more south and east you go in Vermont today, the more likely you are to see locally strong to severe storms. That's because they'll be able to take advantage of more heat in the atmosphere by afternoon. That created more instability.

The risk is locally damaging winds, but most places won't see that. We'll probably see isolated reports of tree damage and downed power lines, especially in Vermont's southern most two counties.

The storms will be moving right along, which means chances are it won't rain for too long in any given spot.

But since the ground is sodden and unstable in many places in the northern half of the state, we could see a couple instances of renewed flash flooding, especially if any particular storm is a bit more persistent the others

There's still plenty of water in the atmosphere, so any storm can produce torrential rains. You know the drill by now, right?

THE RELIEF

The dry, refreshing air is lagging behind the cold front a bit. So we won't really begin to feel it until after midnight tonight, at least, and probably not until tomorrow morning. 

But don't worry, we're still in the path of an upcoming air flow from the northwest. That will bring dry air into Vermont for an extended stay - at least through Monday.   The coolest days appear to be tomorrow, and Sunday, when we get hit by a reinforcing shots of Canadian air. 

In between, Saturday might prove to be a warm one, possibly reaching well into the 80s in some spots. but the humidity will stay down regardless.  

The overall pattern does seems to suggest more air coming at us from the northwest   - at least occasionally - through the end of the month. So we might have more opportunities between now and the beginning of August 

But it won't be constant pleasant air. Some shots of humid, possibly hot air will intrude from time to time between cold fronts. It is summer, after all. 

 

Vermont Rainfall Disappointing; Humidity IS Going Down Though

Clouds from one of many little downpours that just 
missed my location in St. Albans, Vermont in this
humid weather in the past three days. The afternoon shower
in this pic produced a brief heavy downpour just two
or three miles to my south and east 

We kind of find ourselves in the same boat this morning as we did yesterday morning:

The humidity has eased in the northwest corner of Vermont but lives on elsewhere. 

As of 8 a.m.today, for instance, the actual temperature and dew point in Burlington were  63 degrees and 61 degrees. Not bad!

Montpelier, just down the road, was still stuck with a temperature of 76 degrees and a horrible dew point of 70 degrees.  Those terrible, muggy conditions continued elsewhere in central and southern Vermont. 

The good news is the heat and much of the humidity is finally going to get flushed out of the rest of Vermont during the day today. The bad news is that during this transition, rainfall was disappointing. 

The rainfall situation isn't great because we're about to launch into a pretty dry period that will probably last a week or more.

First, this morning's situation. That weather front that was stalled up north well into last night, and almost all the expected rain stayed up in Quebec.  The forecasts had actually called for a slight chance of local flooding in far northern Vermont, but that sure didn't happen! 

Rainfall totals that I've seen so far include less than 0.2 inches in Burlington and Plattsburgh, for instance. Montpelier managed to get bullseyed by an afternoon downpour Monday, so they managed to receive half an inch. Here in St. Albans, I managed to collect a somewhat respectable 0.6 inches of rain, which is OK. 

A small handful of places won the downpour sweepstakes, managing to get decent rains. Waitsfield reported 1.57 inches. 

In general, rainfall across Vermont was between 0.1 and 0.6 inches. 

Overall, I'm not impressed. 

After  kind of bouncing back and forth near the Canadian border through yesterday and most of last night, the cold front is finally getting a shove southward. It's still not moving very fast, so most of far southern Vermont is going to endure another nasty humid day. Though even there, you should begin to notice some change in the air late in the day.

Areas to the north can expect a cloudy day, maybe some sprinkles and patchy drizzle and fog. It'll still clammy, with dew points in the meh low 60s. Not exactly refreshing, but much better than it's been.

In the much more humid air to the south, the slow cold front looks like it will kick off some showers and thunderstorms. Some might have pretty good downpours, so you still have a shot of receiving some needed rain in some spots mostly south of Route 4. 

The humidity will stay moderate into Thursday, when a reinforcing cold front arrives. That will produce some hit and miss showers and storms, but again, nothing impressive.

But the air behind that Thursday front will be delightful.  Dew points will crash into the 50s, which for most of us is quite comfortable Friday through Sunday. Over the weekend, we'll have some chilly air aloft, which will help cumulus clouds bubble up.

So we'll call it partly cloudy. Probably mostly cloudy over the mountains and mostly sunny over Lake Champlain. The lake tends to squelch those bubbly cumulus clouds in this weather regime.

Beyond Sunday, the weather models seem to be all over the place, so I'm just not going to deal with it for now. 

VIDEO: Recent humidity gave the atmosphere in Vermont a South Florida vibe. Click on this link if you don't see the image below, or if you see the image click on it to view. 

Plenty Of Winter Left, But Worst Might Be Over

Mild weather Monday left this snow barely hanging on to
the roof of my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Mild weather
 today should allow this to slide right off. 

We all know that in Vermont rough winter conditions like subzero cold and large snowstorms often last well into March.   

However, we usually see in February some subtle signs that the worst of it is over, that we might be turning a bit of a corner. 

True to form, we're seeing that now.  We get a bit of a break from the harshness of winter this week. 

For many valley locations, Monday and Tuesday saw temperatures a bit above freezing during the afternoons for a few hours. The same will be true today through Friday.  Part of Saturday will probably sneak above freezing too.

It's not exactly spring, but the relative warmth is a slight break for your fuel bill, and coaxes you outside, especially if the sun comes out.  We're starting to feel the warmth of the sun coming back just a bit now.

The sun won't be out all the time this week. Small little storms will throw handfuls of snow flakes or a few rain drops at us from time to time for the next few days. We'll just take what we can get. 

As always this spell of warmish weather won't last. We'll get slapped in the face soon enough with harsh winter weather. It is February after all. It's not always a user-friendly month.

By Sunday, we'll be back into the regime of nights near or below zero and highs struggling to make it into the teens. That'll last until about Tuesday, but it could be worse. It has been in the past. 

Despite the start of a waning winter, mid-February can really hit hard.  A tie for the lowest temperature on record - minus 30 - was set in Burlington on February 12, 1979.  Many of us remember the epic Valentine's day blizzard in 2007.

Still, by mid-month, normal daily temperatures start to creep upwards. As of today, the sun sets a full hour later than it did in December. My guess is that we've already experienced the  coldest weather of this winter back in January.  I can't at all guarantee this, but I'd say we won't see the lowest temperature in Burlington this winter, minus 14 again at least until next winter. 

To give you a sense of what's coming, quicker than you might think, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 30 degrees. One month from now the normal high is up to 38 degrees. Two months from today, that high should be around is 52 degrees. And just three little months from now, high temperatures should be around 67 degrees.

Tornadoes Thankfully Fizzled, Winter Weather Now Reigns Supreme, Including Vermont

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam showed a 
snowy and slippery Route 78 in Alburgh this morning.
Road conditions are tricky in northern Vermont, and
getting worse in central Vermont as colder air
works in.

 There's quite a change in the atmosphere over most of the United States as several days of record warmth, and springlike severe weather is being routed by the forces of January.  

It's still quite warm in the southeast corner of the nation today, and there's a risk of some severe weather in places like Georgia and the Carolinas, but that will get flushed out by the advancing cold front today.

The changes are dramatic.  Houston reached 85 degrees Saturday, its hottest January temperature on record. Today, its in the 40s,and will be in the 20s tonight.

In Tennessee and northern Alabama and Mississippi, where summer like humidity, record warmth and tornado watches settled in on Saturday, there's now a winter weather advisory for one to three inches of snow tonight and tomorrow.  (On the bright side, there were far fewer tornadoes yesterday in the South than there could have been, given the volatile weather set up). 

That Tennessee snow is part of a secondary storm behind the first one that promises to drop six inches or more of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.

That southern snow will miss Vermont, but the first storm is still doing its business in Vermont. Ultimately, there won't be that much precipitation of any kind in southern Vermont, but it's a snowy day up north.

As of 8:30 a.m. today, the snow had gotten well into central Vermont, with just spotty mixed precipitation further south in the Green Mountain State. The snow line will keep working south, though amounts will continue to be light all day in southern Vermont.  If you're south of Route 4, you'll get less than inch.

 Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams clearly showed the transition to snow and cold working south.  Route 78 in Alburgh and Interstate 89 from Williston north looked snow covered and slippery.  Interstate 89 in Brookfield, which is usually an icy road trouble spot, looked just wet at 8:30 a.m. this morning.

But road conditions were just starting to deteriorate in that area, and the bad road conditions will continue to slip south toward southern Vermont. Although it probably won't ever get too bad in far southeastern Vermont. 

A band of steadier snow will be crossing especially far northern Vermont for much of the day.  Most areas north of Route 2 can expect three to six inches of snow. With temperatures continuing to drop and north winds picking up, blowing and drifting snow will also become an issue. Snow will end tonight, though. 

Franklin County, including St. Albans, is the big winner here in the snow department. The winter weather advisory there has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for an expected five to eight inches of new snow. 

This is the opposite of what usually happens.  St. Albans tends to get less snow as storms pass.  Bigger winter storms are often in the form of nor'easters.  Since the northwest corner of Vermont is furthest from the coast, those nor'easters more often than not drop a little less snow to the northern Champlain Valley. 

Speaking of nor'easters, the snow in the Mid-Atlantic states will be the beginning of one, but that will go too far to Vermont's east and south to have any effect early this week.

Forecasters are still watching a potential yet another nor'easter for this weekend. Although you never know with these things, early indications are it might also go too far to our east to give us a huge snowstorm.  The weekend system is still in question though, and some forecast models bring it close enough to give Vermont some snow. 

So we'll see.

Time To Declare Autumn In Vermont; But That Doesn't Mean Cold

Some fall color starting to appear in the trees near
my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. 

 Around this time every year, I arbitrarily declare a change of season.  We transition from full on summer to fall.

Looks like we've done it. 

Starting Thursday, the air in Vermont turned cooler and drier and breezy.  The house was actually cool in the morning. 

Driving around, you see the first hints of autumn color popping up pretty rapidly here and there. Backyard gardens are still producing, but they look tired. 

The onset of autumn varies year to year. Sometimes it's as early as mid to late August, but that hasn't happened as much in recent years. Climate change is making summers longer. 

Sometimes 90 degree heat and humidity linger into the first or even second week of September, postponing what feels like the normal, let's go to the apple orchard and bring your fleece type of autumn feel. 

This year, it seems autumn came right on schedule, just as the calendar turned to September.

Again, this is my arbitrary mental turning of the calendar and doesn't mean much meteorologically. But everybody has their own mental seasonal calendar, and occasionally it's fun to stop and consider how your mind and body are adjusting to a new season. 

That isn't to say we're done with warm weather. Or humid weather.  The next few days, for instance, will be a little warmer, though it will fall well short of hot. And there's hints that we could get a spell of quite warm, humid weather mid-month, we'll see about that. 

We're not even done with thunderstorm season.  Some storms might roll through Monday and again Wednesday. Depending upon the timing of the weather fronts that will prompt them, a few storms might even be strong. 

At least we're in for a spell of benign weather.  Maybe not locally, but the weather has been far too exciting and deadly in much of the nation lately. We could use some boredom. 

There's not even any immediate hurricane threat for a change.  There's a major hurricane named Larry way out in the Atlantic Ocean. It could threaten Bermuda and possibly, eventually Newfoundland of all places, but not the United States. 

Something might stir up in the Gulf of Mexico next week, so we'll have to keep our eyes on that.  And more wannabe hurricanes will splash westward off the African Coast in the coming couple of weeks that will have to be watched.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, we'll quietly watch the leaves turn to their big autumn show. It's early enough in the season so there's no frost risk quite yet.  Though that's coming soon enough. We'll be talking about that later in the month, I'm sure. 

And just think. Within two months, I'll be telling you more and more frequently about snow! Aren't you excited?

WHOOSH! Yucky Vermont Humidity Being Swept Away - For Now

At the Car Wash: A torrential downpour Saturday morning
washes off my truck. The downpour is heralding a 
much anticipated and loved change in the air to 
really comfortable levels.

 For most early risers this Saturday morning, it was another muggy, sticky morning in Vermont. Pretty yucky.   

But for many of us looking at the skies, we could see changes were afoot, and we're in for a delightful break for an awful, Florida-like week.  Weve been saying all week this break would be coming today and I'm here to confirm it. 

Dense, dark, heavy clouds rolled into northwestern Vermont after dawn, giving the morning a dark, threatening appearance.

Those clouds unleashed several brief, but intense downpours, including at my place in St. Albans, Vermont. I saw a few flashes of lightning and heard a few rumbles of thunder, too. 

 Which is great, since northern Vermont north of Route 2 needs the rain and this is the last good wetting we'll get for several days at least. Some of this rain was really torrential. Burlington, Vermont got an impressive 1.1 inches of rain within an hour, causing some local street flooding. 

The heavy showers were more hit than miss in northern Vermont, which is great.  They might take on a more scattered nature as they head south and east through Vermont, but a few local torrential downpours and maybe a few lightning strikes will happen here and there through the morning. 

These storms signal the WHOOSH we needed, as they are lined up along the cold front that is giving us this welcome break. While muggy thunderstorms were ongoing in Vermont's Champlain Valley, humidity had already crashed to comfortable levels in northwestern New York. That wonderful air was making a beeline toward us.

A quick downpour formed directly overhead in St. Albans in
the tropical air Friday evening, dropping about 0.12 inches of 
rain in five minutes. A little garden wetting. Here, that
downpour is departing toward the Northeast. Look
very closely and you can see a faint rainbow at the
base of the cloud near the tree line. 

You'll notice a dramatic change in the air as we go through the day, and this evening will go solidly into the "aaaaahhhhhh!" category.

Don't have air conditioning and you're craving a good night's sleep?  Crack the windows wide open tonight and let those cool breezes in. It'll be down in the 50s by early morning for pretty much all of us, with some upper 40s in the cool spots.

Ready for a hike or something else to do outside without wilting?  Sunday's your day! Under sunny skies, temperatures will end up only in the 70s.  Even better, dew points, a gauge of how humid it is, will stay down in the 50s. That's solidly in the comfort zone. 

Enjoy it while it lasts. Each day starting Monday will be a little warmer, and a little more humid than the day before. By Wednesday and Thursday, we start to get a little uncomfortable again, but it won't be as bad as the week we just had.  

Northern Vermont will dry out again, as no rain is expected after today for awhile. We start to get into the scattered afternoon shower and storm regime for the second half of the week, but so far, rainfall later in the week doesn't look all that impressive to me.  

It's Autumn In Vermont As Far As I'm Concerned

I have a very mild condition that many, many other people have. When I exercise or work hard in chilly air, I'll  have a bit of a cough for up to 18 hours afterwards.  It's called exercise induced asthma, and unlike the severe form of asthma we most often hear about, what I experience is harmless. 

It's coming! It'll look like this pretty soon
here in Vermont 

The reason I bring this up is because yesterday, I spent much of the day working vigorously outdoors, and afterwards briefly detected a hint of that winter time cold weather exercise cough.  

As far as I'm concerned, that means for me, it's autumn. 

Goodness knows it wasn't exactly cold on Sunday.  Daytime temperatures were in the 60s, but there was also a pretty stiff northwest wind.  Low stratus clouds mixed with the sun, and made the sky resemble what it's like during peak foliage season.

Speaking of foliage, I saw quite a few orange sugar maple leaves mixed in with the greenery. 

The onset of a new season is basically whatever a person feels. Sure, there's official dates, like the autumn solstice later in September. But for me, I'm now in autumn mode, and Sunday sealed the deal. 

We will still have warm, humid days, but the chances of another long stretch of 90 degree heat are pretty low at this point. That means we won't break the record for the year with the most 90 degree days.  We've had 20 such days this year in Burlington, Vermont. The record is 26 days. 

We'll find out tomorrow whether this was climatologically the hottest summer on record, based on data from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's going to be close. The bottom line is, as we turn toward autumn, we can certainly say we weren't cheated out of a summer in 2020. 

Now that summer weather is almost over.  There's no getting around it. 

You see it everywhere. Pallets of wood pellets are parked near basement doors. Most of the vegetable gardens look exhausted and depleted. I've noticed the pink Clarence Brown home fuel delivery truck going up and down my road in the past few days.

The entirety of this upcoming week will be warmer than it was Sunday, but not exactly oppressive. The season has turned in Vermont. It's time to start thinking about taking the sweaters and hoodies and boots out of summer storage, I'm afraid.