A Beautiful September In Vermont Makes Drought Worse; Climate Data Is In

Despite a couple rain storms, precipitation was once
again below normal in September, so the drought
worsened. Pictured is low Lake Champlain water
as seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont Sept. 22.

If it weren't for the drought, September was a beautiful weather month in Vermont. Lots of sunny days, comfortable temperatures, all great for outdoor activity. 

Unless of course you were trying to save your wilted garden, or watch the leaves on your trees turn brow and curled and fall off ahead of foliage season. 

This kind of weather stayed consistent all month.

PRECIPITATION 

September was a dry month in Vermont, but not as dry as you'd might think, given how the drought kept getting worse.  

The drought worsened in large part because any rain we did get fell in two short bursts, one around September 5-6 and the other mostly from September 24-25. The rest of the month was bone dry. 

Although September is usually a relatively sunny, pleasant month in Vermont, we almost always get a few periods of gray, drizzly weather that can last nearly a week. Those kinds of conditions prevent things from drying out too fast. 

This year, September instead featured day after day of sunny skies

Burlington had 2.89 inches of rain, which was about three quarters of an inch below normal. Most of northern Vermont was about an inch on the dry side. Which means it wasn't among the driest on record, which was a nice change from August. But still we needed more rain than we got.  

Southwest Vermont was drier. Rutland received about two inches of rain during the month, which was 1.36 inches below normal. Bennington was worse, receiving just 1.37 inches of rain  during September. That was about 2.5 inches on the light side. 

Woodstock in the southeast was actually a tad wetter than normal in September with 3.9 inches. However, all except a third of an inch of that came on September 24-26. 

A new weekly Drought Monitor report is due out tomorrow. That one will take into account the rain last week. However, most observers do not expect much improvement in the drought conditions, 

TEMPERATURES 

The overall mean temperature in Burlington was 64.1 degrees, or 1.4 degrees warmer than normal.  That doesn't sound like it was all that much on the toasty side, but remember, as I remind you every month, is the "new normal."

It's based on the average of temperatures from 1990 to 2020, a time at which climate change had already  made things warmer than then were in the 20th century. 

As it was, September, 2025 was tied for the tenth warmest on record in Burlington. That's part of a trend. There are 15 Septembers in the top 10 list of hottest Septembers in Burlington. Including this year  nine of the top 15 warmest have happened since 2011. 

There weren't really any extremes in September. We saw no record highs or record lows to speak of. Just steady warm nights and somewhat chilly nights. 

That's where that weirdness comes in 

The drought also helped make September temperatures a bit odd: Daily high temperatures were much warmer than normal, and daily low temperatures were near or even a little cooler than normal.

That's because on so many days, the air was unusually dry, the humidity was low. On such days, the sun heats up the air more than when it's humid. But muggy nights stay warm, while the temperature craters on drier nights. 

That's what kept happening in September. In Burlington, the average high temperature or 75.2 degrees was 2.6 degrees, but the average low temperature of 53 was just 0.1 degrees above normal -basically average under the "new normal."

In St. Johnsbury and Rutland, the daily low temperature in September was more than a degree cooler than normal, though highs in both towns were three to four degrees on the warm side. 

There were no truly cool days like we normally get in September. The coldest high temperature of the month this September was 63 degrees.  I could only find one other year with a warmer "coldest" day. That was 64 degrees in 2023.

Interestingly over the past decade, the coldest September high temperature in Burlington was at or above 60 degrees on seven out of ten years. But such days were rare before that. Between 1900 and 2002, all Septembers except two had days with highs in the 50s. Or even 40s in some years. 

I say this every month, as well, but I'll say it again: This is not your grandfather's Vermont climate, that's for sure. 

As noted in this morning's post, October is getting off to a relatively brisk start, but the overall warm trend will return within a couple days. It looks like it might stay generally warm through most of the first half of October. We shall see! 

The really bad news is it looks like it will stay drier than normal through at least the first half of October, too. The drought won't be going anywhere. 

Sunday Evening Update: Now 29 Consecutive Vermont Weekends With Precipitation. Record Could Be Tied Next Weekend

Radar image from 1p.m. Sunday shows some small
showers in the Champlain Valley, including one that
deposited just 0.01 inches of rain at the National
Weather Service office in South Burlington. 
That makes this the 29th weekend in a row
with at least some precipitation, The record
for the most consecutive such weekends is 30.

 Shortly after 1 p.m. today, a  dying shower passed over the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

The shower deposited just 0.01 inches of rain, so little you'd hardly notice it.  No biggie.

Except in one respect it was, 

Contrary to many weather forecasts ahead of the weekend, the streak of consecutive Vermont weekends with rain has not ended. 

As measured in Burlington, we now have had 29 consecutive weekends with at least a trace of precipitation. 

The record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow is 30,  from September 1 1934 to March 23, 1935.

On Friday, it looked like it this weekend would be a lock for no rain.  High pressure that brought us our generally sunny, comfortable Fourth of July would slowly slide off to the east, ensuring it would warm up but also keep any frontal systems with their showers at bay. 

That high pressure delivered on the predictions that Sunday would turn out partly sunny, hot and humid.  However, the high pressure was far enough south so that the subtlest disturbances in the atmosphere could work with the humidity to pop up some widely scattered shower and thunderstorms. 

Breezes off of Lake Champlain can sometimes trigger scattered showers and storms in humid weather. They create a sort of mini "cold front" at the boundary between the cool lake breeze and hotter inland air.

That appears to be what happened on the western shore of Lake Champlain before 1 p.m. Sunday. A few small downpours formed on the New York side of the pond, along the boundary between lake breezes and the hot and humid land. Prevailing winds then took these showers eastward across the lake. 

The showers weakened as the crossed the lake, having lost that boundary between cool and hot. But the one of them held together long enough to deposit that bit of rain at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  

After the shower departed, the sun came back out and temperatures rose above 90 degrees for the fifth time so far this summer. 

Before climate change, Burlington used to average about four or five 90s per summer, but in the past two or three decades, days of 90 degree heat have become more frequent.  

It's too soon to know whether it will rain next weekend to tie the record, and then rain again the following weekend to break it. Early indications suggest there might be some weather disturbances around next weekend that could create some more hit and miss showers. 

As always we shall see! 

Decent Expected Rains To Temporarily Ease Vermont Fire Worries, Not So Much Points South

Fire danger in Vermont is especially high
today in orange areas of this map.

 Brush and wildfires continue to burn across the Northeast today as the incredibly dry autumn continues to hold sway.  

Here in Vermont, we appeared poised to get at least some temporary relief from the dry weather and fire concerns. But the relief won't be total. Also, once again, most of the rain is forecast to avoid areas south of us. Those fires will rage on, apparently.

First, we'll update you on the Vermont situation, and then get into the even worse trouble further south

VERMONT 

Vermont forestry officials have instituted a burn ban across the state as forest and brush fires continue to break out. The latest was Saturday in Ludlow, where a forest fire burned 16 acres before being contained nearly seven hours later.

A forest fire in Barnard Sunday destroyed two camps and spread through nearby woods. 

The bits of rain and snow we had Sunday night didn't amount to much, and quickly dried out.  Today's fire risk in Vermont depends upon where you are. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says the risk is very high in the Champlain Valley and in central Vermont. 

In many of these areas, gusty winds would help quickly spread any fires that do break out. In the rest of Vermont, the fire risk is considered high, except just moderate in the high elevations of southern Vermont.

That partial relief is coming in the form of a warm front tonight. It looks like the front will give us a quick shot of between a quarter and as much as a half inch of rain overnight. There could even be a rumble of thunder or two.

This won't solve all of our problems, as the weather pattern continues to lean towards dry weather. 

An anticipated cold front Thursday night is forecast to provide more rain, but some of the computer models are really backing off on how much rain we'll get out of that. So we'll wait for updates.

The overall weather pattern beyond that features a northward bulge in the jet stream over the eastern United States, which would favor warmer and drier conditions overall as we go into November. 

NORTHEAST FIRES

Wildfire in Dover, NY, near the
Connecticut border over the weekend.

The rain tonight in Vermont is forecast to mostly miss southern New England and especially the Middle Atlantic States. 

Tonight's warm front will produce only sprinkles at best in areas that have seen little or no rain for month. 

Some places are setting records for rainless streaks or are getting close to it. As of this morning, Philadelphia has had 30 days with no measurable rain, the longest streak on record there.  And those records go back all the way to 1871. 

Unless New York City manages to eke out a few hundreds of an inch of rain later today - a big maybe - they'll have their first month on record with no measurable precipitation. 

Needless to say, brush fires keep breaking out in this region and are often difficult to control. 

Hundreds of mostly small wildfires continue to burn in New Jersey this week. Wildfires in Massachusetts caused air quality problems in and near Boston yesterday morning.  Fires continue to rage in New York and Connecticut, and several fires have broken out in Maine. 

I'm guessing we'll continue to hear about these fires in the Northeast for awhile yet until the weather pattern changes and we finally get some real rain. 

I'm Now Declaring That Vermont Summer Is Over

Altocumulus clouds cover the sky over St. Albans, 
Vermont last evening. I tend to associate these clouds
with autumn, which is in keeping with my 
thinking that summer is over. 

OK, I've decided, summer is over. 

My ruling is the most subjective of them all, but it's plain our hot, wet, humid summer is behind us.  

That's not to say we won't have any more warm or even hot weather. Or humid spells. We probably will. But the season has turned. 

This feeling that summer is over almost always used to hit in mid to late August. In recent years, it seems like we have to wait until early or even mid-September for the bulk of summer to be over.  

And it's still possible we could have a long stretch of mid-summer like weather as the calendar turns to September. 

But the weather lately has checked all the boxes for calling an end to summer. 

There are so many signs. One is the spots of fall color you see here and there in the otherwise still green landscape of Vermont. That's typical of late August, but there does seem to be a bit more of that color than I usually see this time of year. That could just be my imagination or impression, who knows.

Even the warm spells have an autumn feel. 

Tuesday evening a brief surge of warm, humid air was making its way into Vermont. In full summer, it doesn't take much to bring such weather into the Green Mountain State, so spells of muggy weather don't have much wind when they arrive at our doorstep in, say, July.

But Tuesday evening, as I sat in my outdoor tub enjoying the cool water, I watched the trees sway in a gusty south winds. It's starting to take more force to drive toasty air into Vermont. 

Cold fronts have lately been bringing cooler and cooler air to the Green Mountain State. The opening salvo was those three days that never got out of the 60s for highs last week. It got down to 51 degrees in Burlington this morning. That's not particularly chilly for this time of year, but it was still the coolest morning since June 28.

The forecast has more cool weather on our agenda.  After a brief squirt of somewhat higher humidity Saturday and parts of Sunday, Labor Day promises to be a classic crisp Vermont autumn day with sunshine and highs only reaching the 60s. 

Even the type of cloud cover we're seeing lately screams autumn. Last evening, we had a beautiful display of altocumulus clouds, which look like a series of small cotton balls covering the sky.  I associate this type of cloud with autumn, because it seems I see them most frequently in September or October.

The sounds outdoors have changed, too. I'm hearing far fewer songbirds and plenty more crickets, which is a classic autumn song list, if you will. 

Of course, there are more scientific and less subjective definitions of autumn than my own "feelings" about it. 

Astronomical autumn begins at 8:43 a.m. EDT on September 22. 

Meteorological autumn, which is an easy way for climatologists and others to assess a season's weather, starts September 1 and lasts through November 30.

Summer, at least measured in Burlington, Vermont, looks like it will be among the top five warmest. We were headed toward warmest summer on record, but the last ten days or so of cooler weather looks like it will keep 2020 in the top spot.

And, if Burlington gets at least 0.58 inches of rain during the expected showers on Saturday, it will become the city's tenth wettest summer on record. 

Long range forecasts suggest we'll have a warm, and possibly wet autumn here in Vermont. Long range forecasts aren't always accurate, but those hot predictions ahead of this summer proved accurate. And autumns have definitely trended warmer in recent years across Vermont. 

Seven of the top 10 warmest autumns in Burlington have happened since 2011. So, though summer might be over in my opinion, bouts of summer-like weather still seems to be on the horizon for awhile yet.