Decent Expected Rains To Temporarily Ease Vermont Fire Worries, Not So Much Points South

Fire danger in Vermont is especially high
today in orange areas of this map.

 Brush and wildfires continue to burn across the Northeast today as the incredibly dry autumn continues to hold sway.  

Here in Vermont, we appeared poised to get at least some temporary relief from the dry weather and fire concerns. But the relief won't be total. Also, once again, most of the rain is forecast to avoid areas south of us. Those fires will rage on, apparently.

First, we'll update you on the Vermont situation, and then get into the even worse trouble further south

VERMONT 

Vermont forestry officials have instituted a burn ban across the state as forest and brush fires continue to break out. The latest was Saturday in Ludlow, where a forest fire burned 16 acres before being contained nearly seven hours later.

A forest fire in Barnard Sunday destroyed two camps and spread through nearby woods. 

The bits of rain and snow we had Sunday night didn't amount to much, and quickly dried out.  Today's fire risk in Vermont depends upon where you are. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says the risk is very high in the Champlain Valley and in central Vermont. 

In many of these areas, gusty winds would help quickly spread any fires that do break out. In the rest of Vermont, the fire risk is considered high, except just moderate in the high elevations of southern Vermont.

That partial relief is coming in the form of a warm front tonight. It looks like the front will give us a quick shot of between a quarter and as much as a half inch of rain overnight. There could even be a rumble of thunder or two.

This won't solve all of our problems, as the weather pattern continues to lean towards dry weather. 

An anticipated cold front Thursday night is forecast to provide more rain, but some of the computer models are really backing off on how much rain we'll get out of that. So we'll wait for updates.

The overall weather pattern beyond that features a northward bulge in the jet stream over the eastern United States, which would favor warmer and drier conditions overall as we go into November. 

NORTHEAST FIRES

Wildfire in Dover, NY, near the
Connecticut border over the weekend.

The rain tonight in Vermont is forecast to mostly miss southern New England and especially the Middle Atlantic States. 

Tonight's warm front will produce only sprinkles at best in areas that have seen little or no rain for month. 

Some places are setting records for rainless streaks or are getting close to it. As of this morning, Philadelphia has had 30 days with no measurable rain, the longest streak on record there.  And those records go back all the way to 1871. 

Unless New York City manages to eke out a few hundreds of an inch of rain later today - a big maybe - they'll have their first month on record with no measurable precipitation. 

Needless to say, brush fires keep breaking out in this region and are often difficult to control. 

Hundreds of mostly small wildfires continue to burn in New Jersey this week. Wildfires in Massachusetts caused air quality problems in and near Boston yesterday morning.  Fires continue to rage in New York and Connecticut, and several fires have broken out in Maine. 

I'm guessing we'll continue to hear about these fires in the Northeast for awhile yet until the weather pattern changes and we finally get some real rain.