Midweek Vermont Weather Update: Now That's It's October, Will Autumn Actually Arrive?

Foliage season is coming along, but it is running late in
Vermont due to oddly consistent warm weather so far
this autumn. There's a chance we could see some true
autumn chill next week, but we'll see. 

 A long, long stretch of oddly warm weather continues here in Vermont.

The warmth hasn't been record breaking, but it's come close on a few days. What's remarkable is the staying power of the balmy conditions, without really much in the way of chilly intervals. 

Normal highs are in the 60s and lows in the 40s right now. 

In Burlington, it has not been below 50 degrees since September 11. That's 21 days and counting so far. I don't think I've ever seen such a long stretch of relatively warm nights this time of year. 

By now, we routinely get a few days in which  high temperatures never get out of the 50s. Sometimes not out of the 40s. 

But so far, the last time Burlington had a high temperature under 60 degrees was on May 12. That HAS to be some sort of record for most consecutive days that reached got to 60 degrees or more. In fact, I'd bet this year shattered that record. 

A cold front that was expected to chill us off just a little starting today is really running out of gas. So a cooler trend is not in the cards quire yet

A good batch of showers along it entered northwestern New York earlier this morning, but by late this Wednesday afternoon, they have become light, scattered showers entering northwest Vermont and then falling apart.  

Any cooler air behind the front has dissipated, too. Some clouds will keep temperatures in the still-mild 60s to near 70 today. But we'll be back up in the low to even mid 70s in many valleys Thursday and Friday.

DOES AUTUMN EVER COME?

If the very coldest computer models are right, there's a 
chance we could see some "snowliage" next Tuesday,
like this scene in Underhill in October, 2022. However
many other computer models don't cool us off 
nearly enough to make it snow in the mountains next week.

Another cold front Friday night might actually get us closer to more seasonable levels for Saturday and Sunday, but it should still be a little milder than average for this time of year. 

It now looks like Saturday night should be Burlington's first excursion to under 50 degrees since September 11.

There are signs some true autumn weather could finally hit toward Monday and Tuesday. As it stands now, a stronger cold front is set to arrive, and a storm might form along it. That would give us some chillier rain.  

The computer models disagree on how cool it might get, especially toward next Tuesday. 

The colder models would leave us with a bit of snow cover on the mountains on Tuesday (snowliage!) High temperatures that day would stay in the 50s or even upper 40s. Some places could belated see their first frost of the season Tuesday night. 

All that, by the way, would not be the least bit unusual for early October in Vermont. 

On the other hand, some computer models don't let that system early next week grab a whole lot of cold air from Canada. In that case, temperatures would merely just stay near normal.

Things might be more consistently turning to a cooler trend however. Longer range forecasts had been pushing near to slightly warmer than normal weather through mid-October. Today, those longer range forecasts have now decidedly leaning toward cooler than average conditions starting next week and going into mid-month.