Early Sunday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: YIKES!

Satellite view of rapidly intensifying Hurricane Milton
late this afternoon in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Milton was rapidly intensifying over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, heading generally east on a dreaded crash course with Florida. 

Top winds were 85 mph in Milton late this afternoon, up from 60 mph just this morning. 

MONSTER FORMING

Veteran hurricane watchers are awed by how fast Milton seems to be gaining power. In their late afternoon forecast discussion, a National Hurricane Center meteorologist wrote:

"Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two."

So much for forecasts a few days ago that hinted at only a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Most of that same forecast guidance shows upper level winds abruptly increasing over Hurricane Milton as it approaches the Florida west coast on Wednesday. That should trigger a noticeable weakening trend, which might sound like good news.

It isn't. 

That weakening trend if it develops looks to be too little too late. Sure, wind speeds might decline to a Category 3 at landfall, but that's still bad. Also, a category 4 (130 to 156 mph) or 5 (winds 157 mph or higher) storm triggers an immense storm surge that doesn't just go away as soon as the hurricane begins to weaken. 

I've got a horrible for instance here. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico but was "only" a category 3 at landfall in Louisiana. As you might remember, the storm surge basically destroyed all of New Orleans and surrounding areas. At least 1,880 people died, and Katrina is still considered easily among the worst in U.S. history.

Now, I'm not saying Milton will be another Katrina. For one thing, Katrina was larger in size than Milton, so it was able to generate a bigger storm surge. We also don't know exactly where in Florida Milton will hit.  If we're lucky and it hits a relatively low population area in which people had fled, then the death toll would be pushed lower. 

We can only hope. 

Then again, when a super powerful hurricane begins to weaken, it often expands in size. That would make Milton rake more real estate in Florida with high winds, storm surges and flooding than a smaller system would.

Forecasters still don't know exactly where in Florida Milton will make landfall. The thinking is central Florida a little south of Tampa. But the "cone of uncertainty" this evening - the areas where the National Hurricane Center think it could come ashore - extends from near Cedar Key in northwestern Florida near where Helene came ashore - to a point in far southwestern Florida that's about as far south as Miami. 

MILTON IN PERSPECTIVE

Florida officials urge everybody in and near the cone of uncertainty to prepare now through Tuesday. Wednesday will be too late.  Gov. Ron DeSantis said today he pretty much guarantees people in low lying coastal areas along the Gulf Coast will be told to get out. 

It's been a weird, bad hurricane season. 

Forecasters in the spring said there would be an insane number of hurricanes this year. But there was a long period in August and September when there were very few storms. 

A rare sight in the Atlantic Ocean, especially in October.
Three hurricanes are simultaneously spinning out there. 

Now things seem to be making up for lost time. There are currently three full-fledged hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean - Kirk, Leslie and Milton. This is the first time on record there have been three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic in October. 

There have been a couple of occasions when there were four simultaneous hurricanes, but those cases all occurred in August or September, which is the peak of the tropical storm season. Also, before the satellite era, it's possible additional October hurricanes could have been missed.

Still, it's busy out there. Thankfully Kirk and Leslie are no threats to the United States.

As it is, FEMA already has its hands full from Hurricane Helene.

Per the Associated Press:

"Federal disaster assistance has surpassed $137 million since Helene struck more than a week ago, one of the largest mobilizations of personnel and resources in recent history, FEMA said Sunday.

Some 1,500 active-duty troops, more than 6,100 National Guardsmen and nearly 7,000 federal workers have been deployed, shipping more tham 14.9 million meals, 13.9 million liters of water, 157 generators and 505,000 tarps, along with approving more than $30 million in  housing and other types of assistance for over 27,000 households, according to FEMA, the White House and the Department of Defense."

It's not like this big push to help Helene victims can be put on the back burner - that has to keep going. Which raises questions over whether FEMA will be stretched way too thin dealing with Milton and its likely horrendous aftermath. 

FEMA officials say they are already planning and staging for Milton, so let's see how that goes.