Early Sunday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: YIKES!

Satellite view of rapidly intensifying Hurricane Milton
late this afternoon in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Milton was rapidly intensifying over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, heading generally east on a dreaded crash course with Florida. 

Top winds were 85 mph in Milton late this afternoon, up from 60 mph just this morning. 

MONSTER FORMING

Veteran hurricane watchers are awed by how fast Milton seems to be gaining power. In their late afternoon forecast discussion, a National Hurricane Center meteorologist wrote:

"Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two."

So much for forecasts a few days ago that hinted at only a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Most of that same forecast guidance shows upper level winds abruptly increasing over Hurricane Milton as it approaches the Florida west coast on Wednesday. That should trigger a noticeable weakening trend, which might sound like good news.

It isn't. 

That weakening trend if it develops looks to be too little too late. Sure, wind speeds might decline to a Category 3 at landfall, but that's still bad. Also, a category 4 (130 to 156 mph) or 5 (winds 157 mph or higher) storm triggers an immense storm surge that doesn't just go away as soon as the hurricane begins to weaken. 

I've got a horrible for instance here. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico but was "only" a category 3 at landfall in Louisiana. As you might remember, the storm surge basically destroyed all of New Orleans and surrounding areas. At least 1,880 people died, and Katrina is still considered easily among the worst in U.S. history.

Now, I'm not saying Milton will be another Katrina. For one thing, Katrina was larger in size than Milton, so it was able to generate a bigger storm surge. We also don't know exactly where in Florida Milton will hit.  If we're lucky and it hits a relatively low population area in which people had fled, then the death toll would be pushed lower. 

We can only hope. 

Then again, when a super powerful hurricane begins to weaken, it often expands in size. That would make Milton rake more real estate in Florida with high winds, storm surges and flooding than a smaller system would.

Forecasters still don't know exactly where in Florida Milton will make landfall. The thinking is central Florida a little south of Tampa. But the "cone of uncertainty" this evening - the areas where the National Hurricane Center think it could come ashore - extends from near Cedar Key in northwestern Florida near where Helene came ashore - to a point in far southwestern Florida that's about as far south as Miami. 

MILTON IN PERSPECTIVE

Florida officials urge everybody in and near the cone of uncertainty to prepare now through Tuesday. Wednesday will be too late.  Gov. Ron DeSantis said today he pretty much guarantees people in low lying coastal areas along the Gulf Coast will be told to get out. 

It's been a weird, bad hurricane season. 

Forecasters in the spring said there would be an insane number of hurricanes this year. But there was a long period in August and September when there were very few storms. 

A rare sight in the Atlantic Ocean, especially in October.
Three hurricanes are simultaneously spinning out there. 

Now things seem to be making up for lost time. There are currently three full-fledged hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean - Kirk, Leslie and Milton. This is the first time on record there have been three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic in October. 

There have been a couple of occasions when there were four simultaneous hurricanes, but those cases all occurred in August or September, which is the peak of the tropical storm season. Also, before the satellite era, it's possible additional October hurricanes could have been missed.

Still, it's busy out there. Thankfully Kirk and Leslie are no threats to the United States.

As it is, FEMA already has its hands full from Hurricane Helene.

Per the Associated Press:

"Federal disaster assistance has surpassed $137 million since Helene struck more than a week ago, one of the largest mobilizations of personnel and resources in recent history, FEMA said Sunday.

Some 1,500 active-duty troops, more than 6,100 National Guardsmen and nearly 7,000 federal workers have been deployed, shipping more tham 14.9 million meals, 13.9 million liters of water, 157 generators and 505,000 tarps, along with approving more than $30 million in  housing and other types of assistance for over 27,000 households, according to FEMA, the White House and the Department of Defense."

It's not like this big push to help Helene victims can be put on the back burner - that has to keep going. Which raises questions over whether FEMA will be stretched way too thin dealing with Milton and its likely horrendous aftermath. 

FEMA officials say they are already planning and staging for Milton, so let's see how that goes.  

Hurricane Sam Really Impresses; Rapid Vermont Clearing After Rains

Clearing up super fast behind a slow  moving cold front
passing through Vermont this morning. 

 I'm watching the weather for the next few days from a temporary new perch in Yankton, South Dakota as I attend a family wedding. 

Conditions are clear sailing here, and I'm still watching the more interesting weather back home in Vermont.

A couple of really rapid things are going on in the weather today. One is completely benign, but interesting and affecting Vermont; the other is very dangerous, but no immediate threat to anyone.

The odd thing about Vermont weather today is the rapid changes in conditions are being caused by a very slow moving cold front. 

That front staggered into western Vermont in the wee hours of this morning, bringing a fairly soaking rain as expected.  Plattsburgh, just across the pond in New York got blasted by 1.4 inches of rain. Burlington got a decent three quarters of an inch.  It was  closer to a half inch around Montpelier. 

As of 9 a.m. today, that band of rain had only barely made it to the Northeast Kingdom,  and was pretty much over in the Champlain Valley. 

You know how skies ofter clear gradually in Vermont after a rainstorm ends. Not this time.  As of 10 a.m. there was a very sharp line over the Champlain Valley between thick overcast and practically clear skies.  That sharp clearing will slowly trudge east, in tandem with that cold front and rain. 

It won't be completely clear today.  Skies will be partly cloudy, and there still could be a few scattered, brief light showers popping up in the air behind this front.

I'm sure you're noticing another radical change with this weather front.  Humidity was still high as of late morning in eastern Vermont, as the front hasn't come through there yet, but that stickiness will ebb this afternoon. 

All this is a huge difference from Thursday. Temperatures soared to near record highs Thursday, and the humidity was up there, too. 

In Burlington, the high Thursday was 86 degrees, just one degree shy of the record set way back in 1895.  The low for the day was a toasty 72 degrees, adding to what has been a near record number this year of days that failed to get below 70 degrees. 

This is also unusually late for such a warm night.  It's probably safe to say that Thursday will be the warmest day until next May at least.

It'll stay on the relatively cool side through midweek at least.  It won't be frigid for the season, just coolish. Something we always see this time of year. 

HURRICANE SAM IMPRESSES

Hurricane Sam exploding into a powerhouse storm 
in the open Atlantic Ocean today. 

What was just a wannabe tropical storm yesterday morning is now Hurricane Sam way out in the Atlantic Ocean.

This storm really blossomed fast and is expected to  continue doing so. Top winds were 75 mph this morning and are expected to roar up to 130 mph or more within two days. 

This is a really fast pace for strengthening, and reflects a trend we've seen in hurricanes in recent years. Going from nothingburgers to monsters in just a very few days.   

There  has been a remarkable trend in rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the past three or four decades, researchers have concluded. The actual number of storms each year doesn't show a super clear trend, the busy seasons last year and this  year notwithstanding.

However, more and more of the hurricanes that do form turn into fast growing monsters.  Climate change seems to be behind this phenomenon. 

Rapidly growing hurricanes are a real danger if that process happens just prior to landfall, as they then hit areas not prepared for such a heavy blow. Think Michael in the Florida Panhandle in 2018 and Laura in Louisiana last year if you want examples. 

Luckily, Hurricane Sam is exploding into a power house of a storm nowhere close to land, so it can be safely monitored. At least for the moment. 

Hurricane Sam is no immediate threat to anybody's coastline, but it could at least sideswipe the northern Leeward Islands by the middle of next week.

Most current forecasts have Sam recurving northward and missing the United States late next week or next weekend.  Most forecasts, but not all.   

A meandering upper level low pressure system is expected to linger near the Mid-Atlantic states and steer Sam away from the U.S.  But if that upper low is weaker than expected, or in a different spot than forecast, then Sam could be a U.S. threat. Time will tell.