Running Out Of Hurricane Names, Again

It looks as though, for the second year in a row, they're going to run out of names for Atlantic hurricanes. There's just been too many.  

Powerful Hurricane Sam swirling in the central Atlantic 
northeast of the Leeward Islands earlier this week. 

Currently, Hurricane Sam is heading north in the central Atlantic Ocean, and Tropical Storm Victor is sputtering around the eastern Atlantic. Neither poses a real threat to land.

That leaves just one name left on the list, Wanda.  (When that forms, we can hope that one stays out to sea as well, so we can call it a Fish Storm Named Wanda). 

Ahem. 

Anyway, the National Hurricane Center's annual list of hurricane names doesn't include ones starting with Q, X, Y and Z, since there's so few suitable names starting with those letters.  So they have to find an alternative.

This never used to be a problem, because we both seem to be having more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, and small little wimpy storms that haven't been detected in the past are now being spotted due to better technology. 

In 2005 and last year, the hurricane name list was exhausted, so the National Hurricane Center used Greek names instead. 

Last year holds the record with the most named storms - 30 of 'em - and some of the late season ones were strong.  Greek names often sound similar to one another and that was the trouble last year.  Toward the end of the 2020 season we had storms named Zeta, Eta and Theta, so you can see how that can get confusing. 

To avoid the confusion this year, the National Hurricane Center came up with a full list of supplemental names. It's basically a whole fresh season of names, just in case . So if anything forms after Wanda, they'll be named Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery and so on. 

We can be very sure we won't get to the end of the supplemental list, thank goodness. For the record, the last three names on that list are Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

 That we're running out of the regular list of names definitely means we've had a very busy hurricane season. 

Another way to look at any given hurricane season, one that gives in my opinion a more complete picture of the season is ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

ACE adds up the lifespan and intensity of each hurricane and tropical storm that forms.  A wimpy little tropical storm that only lasts a day or two won't contribute much ACE.  A long lasting and powerful hurricane, like Sam, will contribute lots of ACE.

As of September 30, tropical storms and hurricanes this year had accumulated a total of 121 on the ACE index. With two ongoing systems and more likely, we might well exceed 150 for the season. That's definitely above normal, but not record breaking.  A normal season will accumulate 66 to 111 points on the ACE scale.

ACE indexes for a season vary widely year to year.  It's been as low as about 20 in 1983 to around 250 in the destructive year of 2005.

This system isn't perfect, of course because it doesn't take into account damage suffered by us humans.  A wimpy tropical storm making landfall can cause a damaging flood. Meanwhile, a powerful, long lasting hurricane like Sam can avoid land altogether, causing little suffering for us landlubbers.

On the bright side, after a terrible first half of the season, when it seemed almost every tropical storm or hurricane that formed ended up hitting the United States, we've had a break.

The storms that formed over the past month or so have steered clear of the states. There's nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests anything else is coming. But the hurricane season lasts through November, so there's still time, unfortunately, for another punishing strike by a tropical storm or hurricane.

Yes, The "S" Word Was Mentioned, But Don't Panic. But Chilly! Also, Sam Update

OK, it won't look anything remotely like this anywhere in 
Vermont this upcoming week, but there's a chance of the
season's first flurries on some Green Mountain summits.

 For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has mentioned the "S" word. Yeah, snow.  

Before you go into a tizzy, it wasn't as if they were forecasting a major blizzard that would annihilate Vermont.

Instead, in their Saturday evening forecast discussion, meteorologist at the NWS office speculated whether it would get cold enough on the tippy top of some of the Green Mountain peaks on Wednesday to support snow flurries.  

The answer is maybe, but doubtful.

This is to say, however, that we are going to have our first true spell to of autumn chill.  It is pretty amazing to me that we've gotten all the way through September 25 and the "coldest" day so far this month had a high of 68 degrees.

By now, we should have had a couple or even few days that failed to crack 60 degrees.  You won't have to wait much longer for such chill, as such days are coming this week.

The forecast is trending colder.   A huge blocking pattern is setting up in which the middle of the nation is expected to bake under unseasonable heat.  (I'm still out visiting relatives in Yankton, South Dakota today and the forecast high temperature here in Yankton today is a really, really toasty 90 degrees!)

But to the east of that big, hot ridge of high pressure in the middle of the nation, a big dip in the jet stream is shaping up. Exactly where it sets up will determine how chilly Vermont gets, but it will definitely turn cooler than normal.

If the center of the dip in the jet stream centers over New England, by Wednesday or Thursday it could get really raw. That would mean cloud cover, cold, light showers and highs barely creeping into the ow 50s.  That's why the National Weather Service was speculating about snow.

If the dip in the jet stream is centered a wee bit to our east, than it will still be cooler than normal, but not quite as nippy.

We're going to have to watch out for frost on several nights from midweek into next weekend.  If there's a lot of clouds around, and nighttime breezes, frost would be limited to just the coldest pockets.

If there's more clear skies and lighter winds, frost could be much more widespread.  We'd have to wait for the day before a potentially cold night to know for sure if frost is coming.

Tis the season for looking out for that kind of thing.  If you have sensitive plants you want to protect, pay attention to forecasts each day. If you hear a frost advisory or freeze warning for any night in your area, f take steps to protect those flowers or late season veggies. 

HURRICANE SAM

That chilly dip in the jet stream for us coming up is great news if you hate the idea of a powerful, dangerous category 4 hurricane hitting the East Coast. (And if you 'd love to see a huge hurricane hitting the East Coast, I hate you).  

Powerful Hurricane Sam way out in the Atlantic Ocean
on Sunday.

It's looking more and more likely that the dip in the jet stream that will lead to our upcoming cool spell in New England will steer powerful Hurricane Sam away from the United States. Bermuda and perhaps Newfoundland are still under threat. 

Weirdly, Newfoundland, way up north, has been smacked by Hurricane Larry and Tropical Storm Odette already this year.  

There's still a slight chance something weird could happen to change Sam's path, but for now, it looks prett safe in the U.S. with this one. 

As of this morning, Hurricane Sam was a monster with top winds of 145 mph.  It is expected to remain a major, scary hurricane for the next few days as it moves northwestward out in the open Atlantic.  

Sam's forward speed is slow, at least for now, so it won't be until next weekend until it will become a threat to Bermuda, if it does at all.  

Hurricane Sam Really Impresses; Rapid Vermont Clearing After Rains

Clearing up super fast behind a slow  moving cold front
passing through Vermont this morning. 

 I'm watching the weather for the next few days from a temporary new perch in Yankton, South Dakota as I attend a family wedding. 

Conditions are clear sailing here, and I'm still watching the more interesting weather back home in Vermont.

A couple of really rapid things are going on in the weather today. One is completely benign, but interesting and affecting Vermont; the other is very dangerous, but no immediate threat to anyone.

The odd thing about Vermont weather today is the rapid changes in conditions are being caused by a very slow moving cold front. 

That front staggered into western Vermont in the wee hours of this morning, bringing a fairly soaking rain as expected.  Plattsburgh, just across the pond in New York got blasted by 1.4 inches of rain. Burlington got a decent three quarters of an inch.  It was  closer to a half inch around Montpelier. 

As of 9 a.m. today, that band of rain had only barely made it to the Northeast Kingdom,  and was pretty much over in the Champlain Valley. 

You know how skies ofter clear gradually in Vermont after a rainstorm ends. Not this time.  As of 10 a.m. there was a very sharp line over the Champlain Valley between thick overcast and practically clear skies.  That sharp clearing will slowly trudge east, in tandem with that cold front and rain. 

It won't be completely clear today.  Skies will be partly cloudy, and there still could be a few scattered, brief light showers popping up in the air behind this front.

I'm sure you're noticing another radical change with this weather front.  Humidity was still high as of late morning in eastern Vermont, as the front hasn't come through there yet, but that stickiness will ebb this afternoon. 

All this is a huge difference from Thursday. Temperatures soared to near record highs Thursday, and the humidity was up there, too. 

In Burlington, the high Thursday was 86 degrees, just one degree shy of the record set way back in 1895.  The low for the day was a toasty 72 degrees, adding to what has been a near record number this year of days that failed to get below 70 degrees. 

This is also unusually late for such a warm night.  It's probably safe to say that Thursday will be the warmest day until next May at least.

It'll stay on the relatively cool side through midweek at least.  It won't be frigid for the season, just coolish. Something we always see this time of year. 

HURRICANE SAM IMPRESSES

Hurricane Sam exploding into a powerhouse storm 
in the open Atlantic Ocean today. 

What was just a wannabe tropical storm yesterday morning is now Hurricane Sam way out in the Atlantic Ocean.

This storm really blossomed fast and is expected to  continue doing so. Top winds were 75 mph this morning and are expected to roar up to 130 mph or more within two days. 

This is a really fast pace for strengthening, and reflects a trend we've seen in hurricanes in recent years. Going from nothingburgers to monsters in just a very few days.   

There  has been a remarkable trend in rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the past three or four decades, researchers have concluded. The actual number of storms each year doesn't show a super clear trend, the busy seasons last year and this  year notwithstanding.

However, more and more of the hurricanes that do form turn into fast growing monsters.  Climate change seems to be behind this phenomenon. 

Rapidly growing hurricanes are a real danger if that process happens just prior to landfall, as they then hit areas not prepared for such a heavy blow. Think Michael in the Florida Panhandle in 2018 and Laura in Louisiana last year if you want examples. 

Luckily, Hurricane Sam is exploding into a power house of a storm nowhere close to land, so it can be safely monitored. At least for the moment. 

Hurricane Sam is no immediate threat to anybody's coastline, but it could at least sideswipe the northern Leeward Islands by the middle of next week.

Most current forecasts have Sam recurving northward and missing the United States late next week or next weekend.  Most forecasts, but not all.   

A meandering upper level low pressure system is expected to linger near the Mid-Atlantic states and steer Sam away from the U.S.  But if that upper low is weaker than expected, or in a different spot than forecast, then Sam could be a U.S. threat. Time will tell.