Vermont Week Ahead: MUCH Cooler, Autumn Finally Here

A peaceful autumn late afternoon Saturday around my
yard in St Albans, Vermont. Expect a decided turn
toward colder weather this week. Summer couldn't
last forever, you know. 

First off, the hoped-for northern lights last night fizzled. The solar flare from the sun wasn't aimed quite right, so we didn't have much in the way of an aurora. Oh well, better luck next time. 

It was as chilly as expected, though. Most of us were in the 35 to 40 degree range, and there were some areas of frost in the colder spots here and there. Nothing unusual for this time of year, but it is a change from what we've seen lately.

Those changes will intensify this week. 

We don't face any big storms, but we do have some spots of rain in the forecast for the week. Maybe even a little high elevations snow. It's that time of year. 

More importantly, you will know summer is over this week. 

A couple of cold fronts will introduce us to reality, starting tonight.

We started off crystal clear this morning, but you will notice some clouds coming in this afternoon. That's the first sign of the chillier air. It will still be a gorgeous day for leaf peeping, though, with highs well into the 60s. 

Peak foliage now covers the Northeast Kingdom and mid and high elevations of most of the Green Mountains. Low elevations aren't at peak yet, but the color is coming along nicely.

Tonight, the first of two cold fronts comes through. This will be the wetter of the two, and we can expect maybe a quarter to half inch of rain. Nothing scary at all. Just some rain. 

Monday-Thursday

The first day of the work week actually looks not bad. The first cold front will have past, and we'll see some sun. It will be somewhat cooler, but seasonable - highs in the 58 to 65 degree range.

But another cold front comes through later in the day. This one will only have scattered showers, but it does have the real chilly air behind it.

Expect highs in the 50s all week, with lows in the 30s to around 40.  If you have sensitive plants outside, or houseplants that need to come in to protect from the cold, like I do, you'll probably need to do it this week. 

It looks like the best chance of frosty weather this week is late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

During the day, Tuesday and Wednesday, the air will be unstable enough to trigger some light showers here and there. Those showers could take the form of snow up in the mountains. You might end up with some snowliage to look at Wednesday or Thursday, with a smidge of white maybe visible on the higher summits with colorful leaves further down the slopes. 

A few snow flurries could make it down as low as elevations of 1,500 feet Wednesday or Thursday, the National Weather Service said. 

Early indications are next weekend could turn brighter and somewhat milder before the next noticeable weather system arrives in about eight or nine days from now. 

Vermont Snow Flurries Today, But How Soon We Forget How Wintry It Can Get

Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam this morning
shows a dusting of new snow along high elevation Route
17 in Buels Gore this morning.......

 A few snowflakes drifted past my windows this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and rain showers are in today's forecast. Web cams already show some dustings of new snow on the ground in higher elevations. 

This kind of thing in mid-April is absolutely normal in Vermont for this time of year.

 However, after that unprecedented April heat wave we just had, and some trees in the valleys coming into leaf earlier than I've ever seen before, we can be forgiven for feeling shocked by the snow flakes. 

If you think this is bad, we should travel back exactly one year ago today to see how wintry it can really get. 

On April 19, 2022 a late season snowstorm really over-performed, dumping a general four or five inches of snow in just a few hours across much of northern and western Vermont. Hyde Park received 8.5 inches, and spots in the Adirondacks had more than a foot of new snow.  The wet snow snapped quite a few trees and power lines, cutting power to over 20,000 Vermont customers. Thundersnow rumbled overhead that day, too.

By the way, we also had a snowstorm and  cold snap around this time of year in 2021, when three to six inches of snow fell on much of Vermont on April 20-21, 2021

So cheer up! We're breaking that two year trend by only getting annoying little flurries and dustings of snow. No big dumps of snow for us this time.  And it's going to warm up again. At least briefly. 

First, we'll endure a raw day today as we won't get out of the 40s.  At any time, you could see a cold rain shower, possibly mixed with snow or graupel. 

Graupel is that weird, kind of pellet-like icy snowflake caused by supercooled water freezing onto snowflakes. 

....but the flurries in Buels Gore are nothing compared
to this scene in St. Albans, Vermont
exactly one year ago today. 

Tonight will be cold, with most of us going down into the 20s. I'm slightly worried about some of the new leaves on the trees.  I think most will be OK, but I wonder if a few will shrivel up, turn black and need to start over.  If it gets colder than forecast, that could be an issue, well see. 

Tomorrow will be gorgeous. Still just slightly cool for the season, but with temperatures by afternoon in the 50s with just light breezes, you will feel like spring has returned. 

Do you miss last week's summer weather?  It now looks like we have a brief redux coming Friday. A surge of warm air will pop us into the 70s, possibly low 80s on Friday once again.  This, after forecasts five days ago said we'd be in an extended period of chilly weather. 

The forecast gets really iffy for the weekend, but Saturday looks like it might be on the warm side, too.  We'll see some rain in there Saturday, Sunday and/or Monday, but exactly how much is an open question. 

It will turn somewhat chilly again by early next week. After all, it's still only April

Yes, The "S" Word Was Mentioned, But Don't Panic. But Chilly! Also, Sam Update

OK, it won't look anything remotely like this anywhere in 
Vermont this upcoming week, but there's a chance of the
season's first flurries on some Green Mountain summits.

 For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has mentioned the "S" word. Yeah, snow.  

Before you go into a tizzy, it wasn't as if they were forecasting a major blizzard that would annihilate Vermont.

Instead, in their Saturday evening forecast discussion, meteorologist at the NWS office speculated whether it would get cold enough on the tippy top of some of the Green Mountain peaks on Wednesday to support snow flurries.  

The answer is maybe, but doubtful.

This is to say, however, that we are going to have our first true spell to of autumn chill.  It is pretty amazing to me that we've gotten all the way through September 25 and the "coldest" day so far this month had a high of 68 degrees.

By now, we should have had a couple or even few days that failed to crack 60 degrees.  You won't have to wait much longer for such chill, as such days are coming this week.

The forecast is trending colder.   A huge blocking pattern is setting up in which the middle of the nation is expected to bake under unseasonable heat.  (I'm still out visiting relatives in Yankton, South Dakota today and the forecast high temperature here in Yankton today is a really, really toasty 90 degrees!)

But to the east of that big, hot ridge of high pressure in the middle of the nation, a big dip in the jet stream is shaping up. Exactly where it sets up will determine how chilly Vermont gets, but it will definitely turn cooler than normal.

If the center of the dip in the jet stream centers over New England, by Wednesday or Thursday it could get really raw. That would mean cloud cover, cold, light showers and highs barely creeping into the ow 50s.  That's why the National Weather Service was speculating about snow.

If the dip in the jet stream is centered a wee bit to our east, than it will still be cooler than normal, but not quite as nippy.

We're going to have to watch out for frost on several nights from midweek into next weekend.  If there's a lot of clouds around, and nighttime breezes, frost would be limited to just the coldest pockets.

If there's more clear skies and lighter winds, frost could be much more widespread.  We'd have to wait for the day before a potentially cold night to know for sure if frost is coming.

Tis the season for looking out for that kind of thing.  If you have sensitive plants you want to protect, pay attention to forecasts each day. If you hear a frost advisory or freeze warning for any night in your area, f take steps to protect those flowers or late season veggies. 

HURRICANE SAM

That chilly dip in the jet stream for us coming up is great news if you hate the idea of a powerful, dangerous category 4 hurricane hitting the East Coast. (And if you 'd love to see a huge hurricane hitting the East Coast, I hate you).  

Powerful Hurricane Sam way out in the Atlantic Ocean
on Sunday.

It's looking more and more likely that the dip in the jet stream that will lead to our upcoming cool spell in New England will steer powerful Hurricane Sam away from the United States. Bermuda and perhaps Newfoundland are still under threat. 

Weirdly, Newfoundland, way up north, has been smacked by Hurricane Larry and Tropical Storm Odette already this year.  

There's still a slight chance something weird could happen to change Sam's path, but for now, it looks prett safe in the U.S. with this one. 

As of this morning, Hurricane Sam was a monster with top winds of 145 mph.  It is expected to remain a major, scary hurricane for the next few days as it moves northwestward out in the open Atlantic.  

Sam's forward speed is slow, at least for now, so it won't be until next weekend until it will become a threat to Bermuda, if it does at all.