Fire Weather Alerts In Vermont Today Amid Dry Air, Gusty Winds. When Will The Rain Arrive?

After a long day of enjoying Monday's 
warm sunshine, a tired Henry the Weather
Dog settles down in the evening to watch
TV as evening sun bathes the 
living room in warm light. 

 We hope  you got to enjoy yesterday, Vermont's nicest day of the year so far. Temperatures were in the 70s, the sky was blue, there was a nice breeze making the daffodils dance. It was perfect. Except for the black flies, but you can't have everything. 

Last night turned interesting, at least for weather geeks like me, South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures up, while in other areas especially east of the Green Mountains, light winds created another chilly night. 

It was a summer-like 58 degrees in Burlington at 6 a.m. But at the same time, it was just 34 degrees in Morrisville and 37 in Springfield.

The dry air and those south winds are conspiring to create probably Vermont's highest fire danger of the year so far. 

The whole region has a big fire risk today, but the worst of it is in the Champlain Valley and northern New York. 

A storm that caused severe weather over the Midwest yesterday is pushing east. That storm is rapidly weakening, but combined with the high to our east, it'll funnel stronger wind gusts up the Champlain Valley and into northern New York today. The humidity will stay rock bottom as it has for the past few days. 

With everything dried out and those winds gusting as high as 30 mph, fires could easily get going and then spread fast. And they'll be really hard to control once they do get going.    

Even though winds will be lighter in eastern Vermont, they'll still be enough to propel any fires that start there, too. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says today's fire danger is very high in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley. That's an unusually dire declaration from state fire wardens. Elsewhere in Vermont, the forestry department gives today a high fire danger rating.

As of this writing, there was a fire weather watch in western Vermont and northern New York due to the fire danger. That watch will probably be upgraded to a relatively rare for Vermont red flag warning. Elsewhere in Vermont, a special weather statement highlights the fire danger.

This is not the day to be careless with cigarettes or burn that nasty weedy patch in back of your house. Do that and you can lose your house. Or your neighbors' house. 

That storm coming in will start to spread clouds our way this afternoon, but we won't have any rain to reduce the fire threat. Any showers coning from the Great Lakes area will fall apart long before they reach Vermont.

Otherwise, today will be great. Highs will reach the low 70s again. And the winds might help keep the black flies at bay a little. 

All this will leave us with a quiet, mild night tonight. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll still be dry and relatively warm, so the fire threat will remain. It won't be as windy and the humidity will be slightly higher than it is today. It'll get into the 60s to around 70, so again, fairly warm for this time of year. Clouds will tend to increase again later in the day, in anticipation of a huge change in our weather pattern

RAIN ARRIVES

The next weather disturbance in the pipeline will head northeastward up the western side to the Appalachians and will start to arrive here late Wednesday night. 

That means much colder air and rain for most of Thursday. The steadiest and heaviest rain will probably come Thursday morning but I don't see any real dry periods at all.  High temperatures will only reach the 50s at best. 

Rainfall predictions are always tricky. They do change a lot leading up to a storm like this. But for now, the forecast calls for a respectable three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. That's more than enough to dampen the fire risk. 

And the dreaded "S" word enters the picture, too. It should cool off enough Thursday night for rain showers to mix with or change to snow at elevations above 1,500 feet.  There might be an inch or two of new snow at the summits. This isn't super weird for late April but still vaguely depressing.

NEW COLDER PATTERN

Nothing's really changed in the extended forecast we've been talking about for a few days now. We have an extended period of mostly cooler than normal weather.  We had several days of sunny, dry weather, now we'll have at least double the amount of chilly, unsettled weather. Like I said yesterday, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished. 

This will last at least until mid-May. It won't rain every day, and we should have a couple reasonably warm days thrown in here and there. 

Most days will have a chance of showers. The coldest days will be Friday and Saturday, as some of us will probably not break 50 degrees for highs.

On the bright side, chilly ain't what it used to be, as normal temperatures have been rising fast and will continue to do so into May.  Look at it this way.  A day that was ten degrees cooler than normal on April 10 would have had a high of 42 degrees. A day that's ten degrees on the cool side on May 10 would have a high of 57. 

So chilly weather is definitely getting easier. 

And for what they're worth, very long range forecasts call for a potentially hot and unusually humid summer around here. If that comes true, you'll be pining for those damp, cool days we'll have in May this year. 

A Long Chilly Weather Slog Coming Up In Vermont

Since the weather won't be especially springlike over the
next two weeks, here's some greenery from a past spring.
Trust me, it will look like this in about six or seven weeks.

In many years here in Vermont I've seen some solid, warm hints of spring during March, only to fall into a cold, long slog of weather through late March and into April. It almost always happens.

This will be one of those years.

Granted, it won't be as had as some wintry early springs we've had in history. But you won't be basking in balmy summer rays anytime soon, either. 

SOME HISTORY

To make you feel better, I can give you some examples of how bad it has been, with reassurances it won't come close to being as miserable this time around. 

March/April 1919: On March 27 that year, the high temperature was 62 degrees in Burlington and the low was 50.  Delightfully springlike. Then it snowed for the next four days, totallng 19.1 inches. 

High temperatures - never mind low temperatures - were below freezing from March 29 through April 2. The high temperature on April 1 was 19 degrees. There's a horrible April Fool's Joke.

March/April1975: It was a supreme example of early spring awfulness. It got up to a respectable 54 degrees on March 25. Then, all but one of the next 14 days through April 10 never got as high as 40 degrees. Nine of those days never got above freezing. Measurable snow fell on eight of those days, totaling 13.5

Now that I've scared the hell out f you let's get into the reality of this spring.

THIS YEAR'S SETUP

There's always the possibility we could get a day or two over the next couple of weeks that are warm, but chances are good almost every day for the next two weeks will be near or below normal.

The record-shattering heat dome is in place out in the southwestern United States, sending temperatuers into the 100s there. On the east side of the heat dome, the jet stream and air flow come mostly from the northwest, sending repeated cold fronts and storms our way.

The rest of this week into the weekend will feature temperatures close to normal. OK, I guess. But the sky will be cloudy most of the time, and we'll also see chances of rain and/or snow most of the time. 

It looks like most if not all the storms over the next two weeks will be small to medium sized, but each one will bring probably bring both rain and snow to Vermont. 

THE DETAILS

Today: 

A weak disturbance was swinging through, bringing a few snow flurries to start the day. No biggie. It'll be warmer than the past couple of days, too, getting up to near 40.  That's close to average. There might be few light rain or snow showers overnight. Again, not a biggie.

Tomorrow

A somewhat more substantial storm will come in from the west. It won't be a huge thing, but the rain and snow will be more noticeable. And steadier, The precipitation - rain the low elevations will begin by afternoon. At this point the storm looks like it will aim slightly heavier precipitation at southern Vermont, but that could change. 

For now, rain or melted snow in the north will amount to a quarter inch, ranging to near a half inch far south. 

Tomorrow night, the rain will change to snow starting and mid and high elevations and reaching valley floors later. Those valleys will see very little accumulation, as temperatures will be slow to reach the freezing point. 

The higher elevations could pick up two or three inches of snow, with maybe something near six inches at the summits.  

Next Storm

This one is a bit of a wild card as the computer models are still fighting amongst themselves over the type of precipitation and the amount. 

At this point, it looks like a warm front will move through Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain. The rain looks like it could be fairly heavy with this one if everything comes together as some of the models suggest.

If the storm goes a little further south than expected, that would put more snow and mixed precipitation into play. Stay tuned on this one.

BEYOND SUNDAY

Next week looks like it will bring the core of our long chilly spell. Once again, it looks nothing like 1919 or 1975, thank gawd. Instead, most days will get into the 30s. A couple days might not even make it above freezing. 

If a storm during the middle of the week goes by to our north, we might have one day, or part of one dah of relatively mild weather. Don't worry, spring will get here eventually. 

November In Vermont Was Cold, Gloomy, But Historically, It Was Actually Kinda Average

A gloomy sky over St. Albans, Vermont on November 6.
The month was chilly by modern standards, but kind
of middle of the road by 20th century comparisons. 

 The final climate totals are in for the Vermont November, 2025 and it paints a chilly picture. But it was only chilly compared to recent years, not the pre-climate change 20th century average. 

The average temperature in Burlington for November was 37.3 degrees, or three degrees chillier than what is considered normal.

 Remember, this is the new, warmer normal, influenced by climate change. Had the same November weather occurred a generation or two ago, it wouldn't have been considered all that cold. 

Out of the past 134 years, this November was pretty much right in the middle of the pack in terms of temperatures. 

Seventy Novembers were as chillier or chillier than 2025 and 64 of them were warmer.  From a historical perspective, and from the perspective of your parents or grandparents, it was actually a pretty normal November. 

Other weather stations in Vermont were also about a degree or two colder than the average of the past 30 years, but more or less in line with historical averages. 

Precipitation was close to normal, too. Burlington had 2.87 inches of rain in November, just 0.17 inches above normal. That made it the 53rd wettest out of the past 134 years. Nothing extreme there. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rain and melted snow came out more or less average, trending slightly on wet side west, and a little drier east. 

Temperatures were strangely consistent in November. The month can feature almost summer like warmth near 70 in the early part of the month, and then hitting bitterly cols, wintry lows near the end. 

There are some wacky extremes in the history of November. In 1938 the highest temperature for the month in Burlington was 74 and the low as 3 below. In November, 1996, temperatures ranged from 74 to 9. As recently as 2022, we had a November with a high of 76, an all-time record for the month, with a low of 15 toward the end of that month. 

November, 2025 in Burlington ranged between 58 and 21. I've seen a few individual days with that kind of range, never mind a whole month.  Digging further, I've found that only six Novembers had a low as warm or warmer than 21 degrees. Usually, the low for the month is in the upper single numbers and teens. 

On the opposite end, only 25 Novembers, have had highs as cool or cooler than this year. Additionally, if you love statistical quirks, the lowest high temperature this month was 34 degrees. Only 11 Novembers had a "lowest high" that warm or warmer. 

Snowfall, by the way, was heavy, at least in the north. Burlington's snowfall was only 2.1 inches above normal, and St Johnsbury's was 2.9 inches on the heavy side. 

As the month closed, there was still a healthy 10 inches of snow on the ground in Westfield and eight inches in Montgomery. Most towns in Vermont had no snow cover or just a few inches. 

But the Green Mountains killed it in terms of snow, especially the central and northern mountains. 

Jay Peak reported an incredible 119 inches of snow during November, obviously their snowiest on record.  On a few days during November, Mount Mansfield set records for the deepest snow for the date. On the final day of the month, there was 40 inches on the ground near the top of Mount Mansfield, the second highest for the date.

LOOKING AHEAD

Incredibly, each of the past four years in Burlington were among the top ten warmest on record. It looks like 2025 might finally break that streak. 

If December temperatures this year come out around the "new normal" of 28.2 degrees, 2025 would  once again be in the top 10 list of warmest years. 

But early indications are this December has a better than even chance of being solidly on the cold side. No guarantees of course. Long range forecasts are notoriously tricky.  But we are entrenched in a shivery weather pattern that shows little sign of breaking. 

We have a decent chance of seeing the coldest December in a quarter century, but that would be nowhere near the coldest on record. That honor goes to December, 1989, that awful month that featured an average temperature of 7.5 degrees which was 20.7 degrees colder than our current "new normal." December, 1989 also featured 19 days in Burlington that got below zero.

I'm quite sure that December, 1989 cold record is safe, despite this year's chilly forecast. 

Kind Of A Stormy Vermont Sunday, New Wet Weekend Record Set. Then: More Rain, Cool, Then More Heat?

Dark green and yellow areas of this map are under
some risk of severe storms today, with yellow areas
at a slightly higher chance of severe weather. 

As of 7 a.m, this morning, it has officially rained today at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont.  

Not much rain, but enough to make this the 31st consecutive weekend with precipitation. That's a new record for consecutive wet and/or snowy weekends.

The bit of rain Burlington had early this morning is not the end of it.  More showers and storms are due today. In fact, there's still a chance of a severe thunderstorm or two today, primarily in southern Vermont. 

It's kind of a messy weather system with a sharp end to it. 

Usually, if you want severe storms, sunshine during the heat of the day helps destabilize the atmosphere, providing more lift for the strong updrafts that produce torrential downpours and strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

It'll be pretty cloudy today, so that ingredient is missing. However, the incoming cold front is more like one you'd see in the autumn than one in mid-summer. 

This autumnal style means there's a sharp temperature gradient involved. You usually don't see that in July. Winds aloft will be strong for this time of year.  South winds ahead of the cold front will collide with incoming north winds behind today's cold front. 

All that should fire up some pretty decent storms, or at least some downpours. Plus, there is some sun in southern Vermont, which will help prime the atmosphere, too. 

Scattered showers will continue this morning, then it appears a main band of showers and storms should enter northwestern Vermont around noon, give or take. 

The band of showers and storms should head northwest to southeast across Vermont during the early to mid afternoon, strengthening as it goes. 

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we could have isolated instances of strong winds along and south of Route 2, and slightly more cases of potentially damaging winds along and south of Route 4.  The rest of central and southern New England is in that same boat.

Most places will be fine. But a few of us Vermonters will be dealing with toppled trees and power lines. Almost all the trouble should be near or south of Rutland and White River Junction.

Much like on Tuesday, there's an extremely low but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in southern Vermont and the rest of central New England.  That's not a big concern, since the chances are so low. But I'm throwing it out there to show that this cold front does mean business.

I also suppose a couple of the most intense and long lasting downpours could create a local issue with flash flooding in one or two spots today in Vermont. But if that happens, it will be really isolated, relatively minor and definitely not a statewide problem. 

Generally speaking Vermont should get a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain out of this with isolated higher amounts. 

COLD THEN HOT

As mentioned, this is an unusual cold front for July. It's more like something that would come through in September. (One of the reasons some storms might be so strong is because this front is out of season. An autumn cold front would not be interacting with such humid air from the south to boost the instability).

Anyway, by late afternoon, northern and probably central Vermont will be in the clear, with sunshine breaking out. There might be an isolated sprinkle left over, but nothing to worry about. Cool north winds will might make you want to grab a sweater if you're doing an evening outdoor barbecue or something like that. 

Monday will be a typical September day with sun and clouds alternating and afternoon highs just making it into the mid 60s and low 70s. Monday night temperatures will drop into the 40s with some low 50s in warmer valleys. This won't anything close to record cold, but still, we're not used to it.

But summer is not over,  that's for sure. 

As I described Friday, the "heat dome" which controls big summer heat waves in the United States, is migrating a little more toward the central U.S. But we're still prone to squirts of hot weather coming in from the west. It now looks like we'll have a sharp boost of heat and humidity late week. 

Wednesday should get into the 80s but the humidity will be reasonable. On Thursday, we have another possible shot at 90 degree temperatures, with oppressive humidity 

Another cold front should arrive by Friday, but that one will be a typically weak, July style version, so it will stay quite warm even after the front goes by.  The changing weather pattern looks like it will still favor additional mostly weak cold fronts in late July and early August.

That means we'll continue with mostly warm summer weather, but on most days the really intense heat would stay to out south and west, with just an occasional oppressive or broiling day thrown in.  

Vermont March Weather: Warm And Weird

A warm March sent daffodil shoots growing much
earlier than normal in Vermont this year. This new
spring greenery had to endure occasional wintry
setbacks, as seen here on March 21. That state
of affairs will continue into April. 

 Well, we got through another month, so it's time to look back at our overall Vermont weather in March, which, as you might have noticed was weird. And warm. 

MARCH TEMPERATURES

Burlington came in with a mean temperature for the month of 38.0 degrees. That puts us in a three way tie with 2010 and 1902 for the sixth warmest March on record. 

It's also the sixth time in a year a month in Burlington was in the top ten warmest list. 

This March was even warmer than the one a year ago, in 2024 which was merely the seventh warmest on record. Yeah, we've had a lot of hot Marches lately. A lot of hot months and years, actually, thanks to climate change. 

The entire rest of Vermont was much warmer than average in March, too. But figures are incomplete, as I noticed missing data on a few days from several of our regular long standing weather stations like Rutland and St. Johnsbury. 

The warmest March day in Burlington was 72 on the 19th and 20th.  This makes March, 2025 one of only 11 Marches in the past 140 years or so to get that warm.  It was not close to the hottest March day on record, though. It was 84 degrees in both March, 1946 and March, 1998.

Rapid snowmelt and some rain led to widespread, but minor flooding across Vermont around St. Patrick's Day. 

You could see the effects of such a mild March by the unusually early signs of spring. Crocuses were blooming by mid-month in a few locations. Green daffodil shoots poked up all through the second half of the month. The sound of returning red wing blackbirds filled the air in marshy areas way earlier in the month than usual. I even had a report of two of people in southern Vermont hearing spring peepers yesterday. That's really early for the season. 

Burlington had its final zero degree reading of the season on March 3. That meant nine days this past winter got to zero or below.  Historically we'd have roughly 20 or more such days per winter, so the downward trend in very cold days continues. 

MARCH PRECIPITATION

It was a little wetter than average virtually everywhere in Vermont in March, which is a good thing since we still have lingering effects from last autumn's drought. 

Precipitation wasn't overwhelming, though, as Burlington had 2.81 inches of rain and melted snow and ice. That's just a little over half an inch above average. By my count, Burlington had its 37th wettest March on record, so not all that impressive.

Precipitation around the state was similarly above average, but not to an extreme extent. 

Winter this March was notably absent until the end of the month. Early in the month, the summit of Mount Mansfield did have its highest snow depth since at least 2019.

But in most of Vermont aside from high elevations, very little snow fell into the end of the month. 

As we just saw, the last weekend of the month brought a big thump of five to nine inches of snow to the north, and a quite damaging ice storm to parts of central and southern Vermont.   

The snow and ice melted quickly during another very warm final day of March, though as of early yesterday, there was still 89 inches of snow near the Mount Mansfield summit. 

APRIL OUTLOOK

April is often regarded as a cruel month, as you think spring is coming, but you always end up getting slapped in the face with winter. 

That's no different this year. 

Today will be much colder than yesterday as many of us won't get out of the 30s. 

And, of course, Wednesday night, we're in for yet another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Though it won't be as bad as the last one, eastern Vermont in particular will likely see a glaze of ice, slick roads, and maybe an isolated power outage or two by early Thursday. 

The precipitation should change to rain on Thursday. 

Long range forecasts also call for mostly chillier than normal weather around here through at least the first half of April. We shall see. 

Even if it's a cool April, the forces of spring will win out. Normal temporaries rise rapidly. Today, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 48 degrees and the low is 30. By April 30, the normal high and low temperatures are 63 and 42 degrees.

You're going to see a much greener Vermont landscape by the end of the month compared to what it looks like now. 

Was Chilly In Vermont This Morning But Nothing Compared To Pre-Climate Change

Don't worry, this was NOT my garden this morning. But,
as forecast, a couple of the coldest hollows probably
had frost this morning. In the past, we've had colder
weather than this in early September. 

 By any measure, it was definitely cooler than average in Vermont his morning. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 30 degrees just after 6 a.m. 

As of this 6:30 a.m. writing, I'm not sure whether any frost developed in the Northeast Kingdom, as it's too early to get temperature reports from that area. 

Elsewhere, pretty much every in Vermont started the day in the upper 30s to mid 40s, just as had been forecast. 

At last check around 6 a.m. Burlington was down to 46 degrees, the coolest it's been since June 16. It was 43 degrees at my perch here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Yes, it's definitely cool for the season, but it's been colder. Burlington's record low for today is 38, so we're not even close. 

Frosts have hit all months of the year in the very coldest hollows of Vermont, and in the Adirondacks. 

Compared to late August and early September cold snaps in the distant past, today was no great shakes.  Cool spells in the current age of climate change are not your grandfather's  chilly spells. 

I have the receipts. 

Examples abound.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book:

On August 31, 1965, it got down to a wintery 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in both Northfield and Chelsea. Talk about an early end to the growing season! Burlington got to 35 degrees that day. It was the coldest temperature on record in Burlington, but that record was tied in 1976.

That August 31 brought temperatures to 29 in Northfield, Sutton and Woodstock. 

In the first week of September, 1967, West Burke got into the 30s for six days in a row. Not happening this year. 

In 1963, it was 28 degrees in Chelsea on September 5, and 30 degrees in West Burke on both the fifth and the sixth. 

Those were surely not great tomato growing years in Vermont. 

Any frost in the cold hollows today was a one-off, at least for now.  A warming trend will begin today, It'll still be on the cool side, with highs today within a couple degrees either side of 70. Tonight will be cool, but not as chilly as last night. By Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, highs temperatures will reach the 70s to around 80. 

There also isn't any real sign of a return to hard core summer weather, either, for at least a week or more. Another spell of coolish weather will probably return by next Sunday or Monday, as it looks now. 

Vermont Forecast Keeps Getting A Colder And Colder Look

Dark, cool and dreary for August this morning in St. 
Albans, Vermont. It's going to be like October
probably through Thursday. 

 The cool spell that arrived in Vermont is now looking like it might well be one of the chilliest spells of August weather we've had in years. 

It won't be the coolest August weather on record, not by a long shot. As I wrote the other day, we used to regularly have autumn-like episodes of weather in August on a regular basis. 

Still, this will probably be the nippiest August regime since at least 2014.  That was the last time we had three consecutive days in Burlington in which high temperatures never made it out of the 60s. 

Even then, those three days in August, 2014 were in general about as cool, or even possibly slightly warmer than what's in the forecast for today through Thursday.  

Originally, today was supposed to the coolest day of the bunch. And it will be chilly by August standards with highs only in the 60s.  

But we should see glimpses of sun every once in awhile between the clouds, and there won't be all that many showers around. So you'll actually get to go outside and, I don't know, enjoy the isolated pockets of fall foliage that have already popped up?

Wednesday now looks to be the more shockingly chilly day of this.  At least shockingly compared to what we've seen most of the time this summer. 

The cold upper level low pressure causing this brisk weather will be right on top of us.  That will inspire lots of clouds, and numerous showers, though they will be light showers. 

But it will be a nasty day for late season summer visitors to Vermont. I hope they brought more than t-shirts and shorts. High temperatures will range from the mid-50s - that's it - over somewhat higher terrain of the north, to the mid-60s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southeast and southwest Vermont. 

The forecast high of 63 in Burlington is normal for October 6.  We still probably won't have the coldest high on record for the date. That honor goes to August 21, 1982, when the "high" in Burlington reached a less-than-balmy 58 degrees. That was the day I mentioned previously in which people were skiing three inches of snow atop Killington. 

Speaking of snow, I do wonder if Mount Washington. The forecast high up there Wednesday is just 40 degrees, with lows in the mid-30s.  That might be cold enough for a few wet snowflakes atop New England's highest peak. 

It won't get cold enough for snow on the higher summits of Vermont's Green Mountains. Still, hikers should take note that summit temperatures will only be within a few degrees either side of 50 today through Thursday.  Rain showers will make it seem colder. A cotton t-shirt and sandals won't cut it, folks! 

The cool, showery weather is now forecast to continue well into Thursday, which is a change from forecasts issued a few days ago. Those earlier forecasts had said a warmup would start then, but now the warmer weather is postponed until Friday, and won't really kick into gear until the weekend. 

By Saturday and Sunday, we should see daytime highs poke into the low 80s for many of us. That's about normal, or a little warmer than average for this time of year. 

Until now, this August has been running decidedly on the warm side. But this cool spell might take the month down to the cool side of what is the new climate change normal for the month. It all depends on how balmy it gets - and stays - after this cold snap departs. 

I'm making a big deal out of a spell of autumn in August, only because by today's standards, it's odd. But like I said earlier in this post, and in a post I put up on Sunday, this kind of thing used to happen all the time in mid and late August. 

It's all just another way we've adjusted to a new normal in the age of climate change.   

Vermont Snow Flurries Today, But How Soon We Forget How Wintry It Can Get

Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam this morning
shows a dusting of new snow along high elevation Route
17 in Buels Gore this morning.......

 A few snowflakes drifted past my windows this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and rain showers are in today's forecast. Web cams already show some dustings of new snow on the ground in higher elevations. 

This kind of thing in mid-April is absolutely normal in Vermont for this time of year.

 However, after that unprecedented April heat wave we just had, and some trees in the valleys coming into leaf earlier than I've ever seen before, we can be forgiven for feeling shocked by the snow flakes. 

If you think this is bad, we should travel back exactly one year ago today to see how wintry it can really get. 

On April 19, 2022 a late season snowstorm really over-performed, dumping a general four or five inches of snow in just a few hours across much of northern and western Vermont. Hyde Park received 8.5 inches, and spots in the Adirondacks had more than a foot of new snow.  The wet snow snapped quite a few trees and power lines, cutting power to over 20,000 Vermont customers. Thundersnow rumbled overhead that day, too.

By the way, we also had a snowstorm and  cold snap around this time of year in 2021, when three to six inches of snow fell on much of Vermont on April 20-21, 2021

So cheer up! We're breaking that two year trend by only getting annoying little flurries and dustings of snow. No big dumps of snow for us this time.  And it's going to warm up again. At least briefly. 

First, we'll endure a raw day today as we won't get out of the 40s.  At any time, you could see a cold rain shower, possibly mixed with snow or graupel. 

Graupel is that weird, kind of pellet-like icy snowflake caused by supercooled water freezing onto snowflakes. 

....but the flurries in Buels Gore are nothing compared
to this scene in St. Albans, Vermont
exactly one year ago today. 

Tonight will be cold, with most of us going down into the 20s. I'm slightly worried about some of the new leaves on the trees.  I think most will be OK, but I wonder if a few will shrivel up, turn black and need to start over.  If it gets colder than forecast, that could be an issue, well see. 

Tomorrow will be gorgeous. Still just slightly cool for the season, but with temperatures by afternoon in the 50s with just light breezes, you will feel like spring has returned. 

Do you miss last week's summer weather?  It now looks like we have a brief redux coming Friday. A surge of warm air will pop us into the 70s, possibly low 80s on Friday once again.  This, after forecasts five days ago said we'd be in an extended period of chilly weather. 

The forecast gets really iffy for the weekend, but Saturday looks like it might be on the warm side, too.  We'll see some rain in there Saturday, Sunday and/or Monday, but exactly how much is an open question. 

It will turn somewhat chilly again by early next week. After all, it's still only April

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Meh! And Still Waiting For Spring

It's that kind of early spring, with half-melted snow
holding fast on the ground, clouds, scattered cold
rain and wet snow showers. And bits of sun. The
upcoming week will bring more of the same to Vermont. 

Thankfully, the snow in Saturday mostly under-performed rather than over-performed, as I had feared.

Judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams and my own travels, most places in central and northern parts of the state got about a half inch to an inch of snow.The Champlain Valley south of Georgia, and low elevations in southwestern and southeastern Vermont got nada. Lucky of them! 

 I had about a half inch at my place in St. Albans, Vermont, which melted, only to be replaced by another half inch overnight. 

It's going to be that kind of week. 

We're going to stay in somewhat of a holding pattern in Vermont  this week. Spring won't really advance much, but winter won't win any really big battles. 

We'll just plod on, like we mostly have over the past couple of weeks, with a slow snow melt, with some minor setbacks with bits of snow here and there. 

Today sets the tone.  It'll be blustery and chilly, but not super cold for this time of year. A few rain showers will dampen the pavement here and there, and no doubt your spirits, too. The mountains and hills will see a few snow showers, and they'll get a bit of additional snow, probably two inches or less. 

Monday and Tuesday will feature some sun, some clouds, and daytime temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to low 40s as they  have been all month.  

Of course as they week goes on, and the forecast gets more long range, the reliability of these weather predictions starts to fade a little.

Still, it looks like a sharp cold front might come in Wednesday or Wednesday evening, first with maybe a few rain showers. It's possible this could end up giving us some snow squalls, too. Meteorologists will keep an eye on that. 

If we do get those snow squalls, it'll be just a couple of inches of snow, not some big foot deep blizzard. We have to keep trying to look on the bright side here. 

Thursday looks like it might actually be one of the colder days of this entire month. From this vantage point it looks like the afternoon would barely get above freezing. 

Early indications are we'll sort of warm up, and get some (mostly!)  rain next weekend. Let's just  hope it does turn out to be some light rain, and doesn't change into a late season snowstorm. I doubt it will, but judging how grudging this early spring has been so far, nothing would surprise me. 

There's not much hope looking into the first week to 10 days of April, either. The trends for the beginning of April are still leaning toward chillier than average weather with  near to slightly above normal rain and, um, snow.

Eventually, we'll have the kind of bright, sunny warm spring days we all deserve. But not anytime soon, the way it looks. 

Friday Evening Update: A Surprise Brief Snow Thursday, A Balmy Friday, And Another Snowy Surprise Tonight?

A surprise burst of wet snow Thursday afternoon kept
St. Albans, Vermont looking a bit more wintry than
expected, but......

 Although overall forecasts for yesterday and last night's storm were pretty accurate, except for a two or three hour period where the predictions definitely went off the rails.  

The forecast called for a cold rain, mixed with a little wet snow or mixed precipitation close to the onset of the storm. That would have hit mostly the mountains and the Northeast Kingdom.

And that's what happened. At first. Then, a definitely unplanned burst of snow in the valley an hour or two after it started raining.  It wasn't that big a deal, of course. The snow quickly went to rain again as more warm air flooded in.

Video of the event is at the bottom of the post. Interesting how it goes from an ugly February day in Vermont, to one that's kind of pretty, then back to the drab again. 

It was a pretty dynamic system. So much so that lightning was detected in parts of Vermont later Thursday night. The fact the storm had such energy created more lift in the atmosphere. 

More lift means rising air, and more precipitation. But this lift also helped cool the atmosphere more than expected. At least for awhile before even more warm air flooded in. So, for an interval, at least, we had a period of snow.  

Otherwise, the storm played out as expected. There was some rain overnight, today was mild, and a winter throwback is coming tonight for parts of Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

WARM FRIDAY

The warm air peaked this morning, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50 in much of Vermont. 

....but it quickly warmed up again, and by Friday afternoon,
the same scene looked much more like March than February.

In Vermont, temperatures did not quite reach records, but it was surely much warmer than normal. 

Burlington just missed reaching a record high by one degree, as the high today was 45 degrees. 

Today's current record of 46, though, isn't impressive and I'm surprised it still exists. It's the lowest of any record daily highs of the year. Most record highs this time of year are in the 50s

In southern and eastern New England, and further south along the East Coast, record high temperatures were reported this morning. Boston tied its record high of 60 degrees, just six days after suffering through its coldest temperature since 1957. (It was 10 below in Boston last Saturday) 

Cold air usually bleeds in behind any cold front or storm.  Last Friday, behind the Arctic cold front, the temperature plummeted from the 20s above to near 20 below in the span of less than 24 hours. 

This time, the decline in temperatures has been much, much more leisurely, and much less dramatic than last Friday. By 5 p.m. today, much of Vermont was still near 40 degrees. But that's about to change. 

SNOWY RETURN

Kind of an interesting set up for this evening. A secondary cold front will more convincingly drop temperatures into the 20s. At the same time, an upper level disturbance will come east from the northeastern Great Lakes.

That sets us up for another good burst of snow in northern Vermont. Most places north of Route 4 should get some snow, but the main show will be along and north of Route 2. At least the snow will come in well after the Friday evening commute, so we don't have to worry about that.

Even in the northern Champlain Valley, up near St. Albans, Highgate, Swanton, places like that, we could see a quick two or three inches of snow later this evening and overnight. By the time you get down to Burlington, it might only be an inch or so. '

The snow will last longer along the spine of the Green Mountains and the western slopes. Especially from Sugarbush north. Those areas could see a decent three to six inches of snow, with locally up to eight inches in the ski areas.

That will freshen things up after last night and today's thaw. 

Saturday looks like a nice day for winter sports, too. Highs will get into the 20s, with a few low 30s in the warmer valleys. Enjoy it, because March in February is set to continue. 

A BIG WARM SPELL

Every day in the upcoming week will feature above freezing temperatures in Vermont. Signs are pointing toward a super warm spell toward Thursday and perhaps Friday. Temperatures could approach record highs in Vermont. Right now, forecasters are calling for readings to get past 50 degrees on Thursday. 

The record high on this upcoming Thursday in Burlington is 55 degrees. We'll see how that shakes out. 

No big storms are in the offing until Thursday night, when current forecasts seem to hint at a pretty decent slug of rain to come through. 

After Thursday, long range forecasts are tricky. But current hints are that temperatures will remain generally above normal through around February 24. There could be some colder days thrown in there, but most of the time, it would be kinda balmy for February.

Don't think for a minute that means winter is over. March can be a wintry beast. And I have a post coming up within the next couple of days that tells us there's a decent chance March could turn out to be this year's most wintry month.

Stay tuned! 

Video: The changeable weather on Thursday. First, the day was ugly in St. Albans, Vermont. Then suddenly, it wasn't. Then it was. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Nice Weekend Continues. Then A Chilly Week, But Does Indian Summer Follow

An orange forest on a nice Saturday yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont. Despite the recent heavy rains, beautiful fall
foliage manages to linger in parts of the state.

 After that very soggy rainstorm Thursday night and Friday, it has turned out to be a delightful weekend across Vermont. 

It's true that the storm at the end of the week has muted the fall foliage, but it's still looking pretty spectacular in the Champlain Valley and in the low elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont still has splashes of color here and there, too, so all is not lost. Not yet anyway. 

Today - Sunday - is essentially a rerun of Saturday except that it will be a little cooler, and there might be a few extra clouds the further northwest you go. Enjoy today, because it all goes downhill somewhat for the upcoming week. 

We're about to have the coolest week we've had in Vermont since April. If you hate cold weather, relax.  The chilly upcoming weather will be pretty typical for late October. 

The nippy weather that's in the forecast does not seem like it will be as cold as some earlier forecasts indicated. It might be also a little less wet and a little less, ahem, snowy than previously advertised. 

Scattered showers will linger, especially in the mountains Monday night through Tuesday night. It'll almost surely be cold enough on the summits to allow for snow.  Snow flurries might still extend down to some valley floors.  A couple days ago, I was more sure that many valleys would see their first snowflakes of the season. 

Now, I'm not so sure. Some will. In any event, it's not quite time to get your snow shovels out of storage.  

In any event, snow flurries aren't at all unusual this time of year. In the Banana Belt of Burlington, the average date of the first autumn snow flurry is October 15.  That first flurry typically comes earlier than that in much of the rest of northern Vermont.

Burlington's first snow flurry of the season has come as early as September 20 in 1956 and 1991.  The earliest first inch accumulation was on October 9, 1979 and the earliest three inches was on October 10, 1925.

I guarantee Burlington will NOT see an inch of snow, never mind three inches, this week. 

It'll stay cool and mostly dry for the second half of the upcoming week, (Highs within a few degrees either side of 50, lows near the freezing mark.)

I don't entirely trust long range forecasts, but for what it's worth, I'm seeing signs of a pattern change that would give us mostly warmer than normal temperatures for the last ten days or so of the month. 

No guarantees on this, and even if the weather pattern turns warmer, there would still probably be some chilly days thrown in that mix, but dare we say we could be up for an Indian Summer in a little over a week?

Yes, The "S" Word Was Mentioned, But Don't Panic. But Chilly! Also, Sam Update

OK, it won't look anything remotely like this anywhere in 
Vermont this upcoming week, but there's a chance of the
season's first flurries on some Green Mountain summits.

 For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has mentioned the "S" word. Yeah, snow.  

Before you go into a tizzy, it wasn't as if they were forecasting a major blizzard that would annihilate Vermont.

Instead, in their Saturday evening forecast discussion, meteorologist at the NWS office speculated whether it would get cold enough on the tippy top of some of the Green Mountain peaks on Wednesday to support snow flurries.  

The answer is maybe, but doubtful.

This is to say, however, that we are going to have our first true spell to of autumn chill.  It is pretty amazing to me that we've gotten all the way through September 25 and the "coldest" day so far this month had a high of 68 degrees.

By now, we should have had a couple or even few days that failed to crack 60 degrees.  You won't have to wait much longer for such chill, as such days are coming this week.

The forecast is trending colder.   A huge blocking pattern is setting up in which the middle of the nation is expected to bake under unseasonable heat.  (I'm still out visiting relatives in Yankton, South Dakota today and the forecast high temperature here in Yankton today is a really, really toasty 90 degrees!)

But to the east of that big, hot ridge of high pressure in the middle of the nation, a big dip in the jet stream is shaping up. Exactly where it sets up will determine how chilly Vermont gets, but it will definitely turn cooler than normal.

If the center of the dip in the jet stream centers over New England, by Wednesday or Thursday it could get really raw. That would mean cloud cover, cold, light showers and highs barely creeping into the ow 50s.  That's why the National Weather Service was speculating about snow.

If the dip in the jet stream is centered a wee bit to our east, than it will still be cooler than normal, but not quite as nippy.

We're going to have to watch out for frost on several nights from midweek into next weekend.  If there's a lot of clouds around, and nighttime breezes, frost would be limited to just the coldest pockets.

If there's more clear skies and lighter winds, frost could be much more widespread.  We'd have to wait for the day before a potentially cold night to know for sure if frost is coming.

Tis the season for looking out for that kind of thing.  If you have sensitive plants you want to protect, pay attention to forecasts each day. If you hear a frost advisory or freeze warning for any night in your area, f take steps to protect those flowers or late season veggies. 

HURRICANE SAM

That chilly dip in the jet stream for us coming up is great news if you hate the idea of a powerful, dangerous category 4 hurricane hitting the East Coast. (And if you 'd love to see a huge hurricane hitting the East Coast, I hate you).  

Powerful Hurricane Sam way out in the Atlantic Ocean
on Sunday.

It's looking more and more likely that the dip in the jet stream that will lead to our upcoming cool spell in New England will steer powerful Hurricane Sam away from the United States. Bermuda and perhaps Newfoundland are still under threat. 

Weirdly, Newfoundland, way up north, has been smacked by Hurricane Larry and Tropical Storm Odette already this year.  

There's still a slight chance something weird could happen to change Sam's path, but for now, it looks prett safe in the U.S. with this one. 

As of this morning, Hurricane Sam was a monster with top winds of 145 mph.  It is expected to remain a major, scary hurricane for the next few days as it moves northwestward out in the open Atlantic.  

Sam's forward speed is slow, at least for now, so it won't be until next weekend until it will become a threat to Bermuda, if it does at all.  

Cool Regime Continues This Week; Warm Up Later?

Despite relatively cool weather in the past week, the woods
and fields near my house in St. Albans, Vermont
continue to green up quickly.

 It's been a relatively cool May so far here in Vermont. Not that cool, mind you.  Just lacking in the types of spurts of 70 degree weather we saw in April. 

This state of affairs looks like it will continue this week.  However, due in part to the fact that normal temperatures are still rising with the season, it will get somewhat warmer by the end of the week. 

More importantly the weather pattern is adjusting to something in favor of bringing us weather a little closer to summer like.  At least eventually. 

Though the weather was fairly pleasant in Vermont Sunday, chilly weather  especially near the Great Lakes illustrated the cool weather pattern the Midwest and Northeast is in. 

Snow fell in parts of northern Pennsylvania on Mother's Day.  Frost and freeze warnings and advisories were up this morning in Michigan and Wisconsin. 

For us Vermont, we're getting another shot of chilly weather for the first half of this week.  The storm that caused the Pennsylvania snow was bringing a cold rain to southern Vermont this morning. Cold air aloft will contribute to scattered showers this afternoon.

On Tuesday, an even colder pocket of air will come in aloft over Vermont and surrounding areas. This will make instability even greater in the atmosphere, so there should be a fair number of showers around, especially in the afternoon. 

Expected high temperatures only in the low 50s Tuesday would be a good 15 degrees colder than normal. Stiff northwest winds will make it feel nippier than that . By Tuesday night, mountain summits will probably get another dusting of snow. 

Wednesday will be brisk, too, but not as bad as Tuesday. 

The second half of the week looks milder.  Temperatures will get well into the 60s which is a bit below the "new normal" temperatures that are out now. But it will basically be seasonable - pretty normal by mid-May standards. 

Long range forecasts are hinting at warmer than normal temperatures starting in about a week and continuing for a spell afterwards. That could be our first real taste of summer.