A Classic, Perfect Vermont Autumn Day To Be Followed By More Fall Greatness

A snowy Mount Mansfield on Thursday as viewed
from Underhill, Vermont. 

I really have to rate Thursday probably among the top five most perfect autumn weather days in Vermont that I can remember. 

Which is impressive, since I've lived in this state for a mere 62 years. 

The day started with a very traditional October frost, which left the lawn looking oddly clean thanks to  the sparkling ice crystals as the sun rose into a clear sky.

What followed was perfectly blue skies from dawn to dusk. The northern Green Mountains were topped with dazzling cold white snow, which contrasted fantastically with the warm orange, red and yellow tones of the fall foliage. This was all under the most brilliant of blue skies. 

Temperatures were perfect. The air had that clean crispness of autumn. Speaking of clean, the air quality couldn't have been better.  I checked the air quality index and for most of us, it hovered around 10. Anything between 0 and 50 is good, and it's rare to get the index down to 10.

Breathing the air Thursday was almost like pure oxygen therapy. I'm sure my lungs are cleaner now than they were 24 hours ago. 

The day ended with a view of a comet after sunset, followed by the October hunter super moon rising in the east and illuminating the night sky.  They're calling it a super moon because it's a little closer to Earth than usual, making the moon appear a bit bigger and shine more brilliantly. 

In other words, Thursday it was classic, old fashioned kind of Vermont autumn day. Which felt oddly reassuring.  

In this age of climate change and its associated scary weather moments, it felt good to have an October day, the kind I remember as a kid. It was nice to experience gorgeous "normal" weather. Granted the fall foliage is later in the season than I can recall decades ago, but let's just ignore that for now.  

MORE FANTASTIC WEATHER

If you missed the perfection of Thursday's Vermont weather, you're in luck.  I've issued a Gorgeous Weather Warning that's in effect today through Sunday. And I might need to extend that warning into early next week as well.  

Another view of Mount Mansfield as seen from
Underhill, Vermont on Thursday.

Today is pretty much rinse and repeat of Thursday.  Temperatures were just a couple degrees warmer at dawn today than yesterday, but many of us still have frost on the pumpkin, so to speak. 

It'll be another day of wall to wall sunshine, blue skies and clean air. It will be a little warmer than Thursday, with highs in several areas topping out in the low to mid 60s. 

The only thing making today and the next few days "worse" than Thursday is the snow on top of the mountains will be gradually fading as it melts in the late season sun.

 But it will take a little while. The foot of snow measured atop Mount Mansfield on Wednesday was the deepest for so early in the season. 

The weekend will feature plenty of sunshine as well, as well as temperatures getting even milder. A few places will probably at least flirt with 70 degrees on Sunday. 

By early next week, Indian Summer should be in full swing with afternoon highs at least into the low 70s. 

The next chance of rain - and it won't be much - will probably come along with a cold front Wednesday night or Thursday which would knock temperature back down to seasonable late October readings.  

Pretty Impressive Snows On Vermont Mountain Peaks, Frost/Freeze Up Next

A traffic camera caught a motorist making their way
through a winter wonderland at around 7:15 this
morning along Route 242 near Westfield, Vermont.

While most of Vermont dealt with cold rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes overnight, the mountain summits really piled up the snow.  

SNOWFALL

I don't have too many specific reports yet, but the National Weather Service estimates a good six to nine inches of fresh summit atop peaks like Mount Mansfield and Jay. 

The stake near the top of Mount Mansfield had an accumulation of four inches before a round of occasionally heavy snow showers rolled through last evening. Video showed a very heavy snow squall amid fall foliage at the Bolton Valley Ski Area last night.  

Motorists traveling through high elevation roads like Sherburne Pass along Route 4 near Killington, Route 17 in Buels Gore and Routes 242 and 105 near Westfield and Jay Peak encountered winter driving conditions at times overnight. 

The snow had pretty much melted off those roads as of 8 a.m., so I don't anticipate travel trouble. 

Aside from a few more mountain snow flurries and valley sprinkles, the precipitation is pretty much done. It will remain mostly to completely cloudy north through the day. Some sun will break out south, but it will remain chilly.  

Most places will stay in the 40s, although a few spot 50 degree readings might show up in so-called "warmer" valleys.  That sets us up for probably the end of a prolonged growing season tonight. 

Still, today and tomorrow look like great days for some spoilage viewing, especially the first half of Thursday, when sunshine will light up the mountain snow before beginning to melt it.

FROST/FREEZE

Virtually all of Vermont will be near or below freezing overnight and early Thursday except maybe right near Lake Champlain. 

Despite some still-healthy outdoor plants in most of Vermont, you won't see any frost or freeze warnings in areas outside the Champlain Valley and valleys in the southern parts of the state.

That's because the National Weather Service doesn't issue frost and freeze advisories in areas where the growing season should have ended by now. For many, this first of the season upcoming cold night is coming quite a bit later in the autumn than usual. 

So, places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Morrisville, Stowe and everywhere else in northern Vermont will get below freezing tonight without those advisories.l 

A frost advisory IS in effect in the Champlain Valley as most places there should get pretty close to 32 degrees. Remember, you can get a frost if temperatures officially stay just above freezing.  On calm, clear nights, like what we anticipate the early morning hours of Thursday to be like, temperatures are usually measured five feet off the ground. It might be 33 or 34 at the thermometer, but at your feet, frost is forming on the grass.

In Rutland County, a freeze warning is up because there, temperatures are forecast to dip below 32 degrees. 

THE WARMUP

We are still anticipating a warm up starting a little bit Thursday afternoon and really hitting in earnest starting Friday. It's dry air, so nights will still be chilly and potentially frosty through Friday night and Saturday night. 

Days will warm up nicely into the 60s. By early next week, some low 70s seem like they will pop up. Indian Summer indeed.  It's all being caused by one big honking huge high pressure system that is initially bringing us the cold air but will move a little east and pull up some balmy air from the southwest by the weekend. 

This high pressure system will also bring us plenty of clear skies. During this time, it'll be worth it to take a look at the western sky at twilight, a little after sunset to catch a glimpse of comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, which should be visible for the next week or two in the evenings when it's not cloudy.  

Unfortunately we missed the best view of the comet because during these recent cloudy days, the moon didn't interfere with the view. A waxing moon in the coming days might wash out the light of the come some, making it a little harder to see.

The warm air is beginning to look like it might not last as long as originally anticipated, with a new cold front possible by Wednesday, But at least at this point, the air behind that front doesn't look super cold, so it will still be pretty nice. 

Pretty much no rain is in the forecast until at least Wednesday. So far, it looks like if it does end up raining with that anticipated old front next week, it won't amount to much at all.

A New Climate Change Twist On An Old Fashioned Autumn Weather Pattern

Satellite view from late Sunday afternoon. Clouds from
former Tropical Storm Ophelia reach about as
far as Route 2 in Vermont. Wisps of wildfire 
smoke are visible in the clear air over far northern
Vermont. Much more smoke is visible in Quebec
and that will contribute to haze much of this week.

UPDATE

Quite a bit of haze out there today, Monday, due to wildfire smoke from Canada. This was expected, of course. Air quality in Vermont is not terrible, staying mostly in the "moderate' category, but not considered unhealthy. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Very often in the autumn, these big, sprawling high pressure systems stall near or over the Northeast.

We call these spells Indian Summer, and we're entering such a spell now. Technically, Indian Summer strikes after a good autumn frost. We haven't had one yet, but overall, the weather will fit. 

In the past, especially way back in the mid 20th century, the sunshine with these Indian Summer spells mixed with quite a bit of haze. That's because these huge high pressure systems  featured temperature inversions. 

Inversions are a warm layer in the atmosphere atop a cooler layer near the surface. The inversion acted like a lid, trapping pollutants. 

 The dense morning fog that is characteristic of weather pattern would sometimes become mixed with the pollutants to become smog, and that smog in some of the most industrial places in the U.S. (think Pennsylvania steel country) would never lift. 

In the worst cases, this would get deadly. The most famous case was in Donora, Pennsylvania in October, 1948, when a thick smog choked the town for five days, killing at least 20 people and sickening at least half the town. 

This incident was the spark for the Clean Air Act and other anti-pollution initiatives. 

Decades later, spells of Indian Summer weather across the Northeast were much less hazy as a result. There was less pollution in the air to trap, so skies remained deep blue, the air remained easy to breathe. 

Now, though, it appears the haze is back.  A very typical for the season big high pressure system is now stalled in Quebec, and beginning to nose more and more into New England.   The sky under much of this high, though is not a brilliant blue. Instead, wildfire smoke, which has plagued Canada much of this year, is trapped in this big area of calm, fair conditions.

So, we're going to have a week of gorgeous autumn weather - Indian Summer if you will  - here in Vermont, expect hazy skies during much or even all of this long stretch of mild, pleasant weather this week. 

Unlike Donora in 1948, a lot of this smoke and haze is aloft, and not much is near the surface. That means, thank goodness, the air won't be all that unhealthy to breathe. Most of the tiny particles in the haze that can damage lungs is high overhead. 

I noticed air quality in Vermont Sunday and this morning was in the moderate category. That means it's not exactly fresh and clean out there, but for the vast majority of us, pollutants aren't at any kind of dangerous level. 

Although I admit the following is speculation, I think the haze associated with Indian Summer is back to stay.  Summer and early autumn wildfires in Canada and the western United States will generally be more common and widespread than in the past, due to climate change. 

The smoke will swirl into these big high pressure systems that bring us Indian Summer, and we'll be back to the autumn haze of mid-20th century America. 

Bottom line for us is the clouds and sprinkles that came north from then-Tropical Storm Ophelia over the weekend are slowly eroding and heading out of Vermont. 

It's going to be a full week of mild afternoons with plenty of sun (with some smoke and haze). Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s daily all week, which is a little warmer than normal.  Each morning will feature patchy dense fog, especially in river valleys. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, about average for this time of year. 

We haven't had a stretch of dry weather as long as this since late May and early June. 

 

Indian Summer Strikes, Not That Anyone's Complaining

A beautiful late afternoon autumn sky Friday over St. Albans,
Vermont. Yesterday marked the start of Indian Summer 
type weather in Vermont that could last a week. 

 Yesterday in Vermont was gorgeous and today will be gorgeous-er  as Indian Summer comes to the region. 

Starting today, each of the next seven days at least are likely to reach 60 degrees or more.  We might even have one or two days that flirt with or touch 70 degrees in this spell of weather. It's quite unusual (but not unheard of) to get that long a stretch of such continuous warm weather this late into the autumn.

This will be what I call a "dirty" Indian Summer in that it won't be wall to wall sunshine. During this upcoming spell of fine weather, there will also be the occasional cloudiness, and even a little rain here and there. 

Today will feature a lot of sunshine as temperatures top out into the mid 60s. Sunday will be almost as nice, but high clouds will filter in, and thicken and lower some in the afternoon. A relatively weak but wet coastal storm will be responsible for those clouds.

Showers and periods of rain should come into at least parts of Vermont Sunday night and part of Monday.  Forecasters aren't entirely sure how far north and west the rain will come, but there's a fairly decent chance of at least a few light showers in northwestern Vermont. It'll almost definitely rain in southeastern Vermont. 

The storm's heavy rain should stay in southern and eastern New England. 

The storm clears out Monday and we go back to the sunshine and warmth into mid week. The warmest stretch at this point looks like it might be Tuesday and Wednesday, when we have the best shot of seeing a late breaking 70 degree afternoon or two.

Another front comes into play probably later Wednesday or Thursday. We don't know how much rain this will bring, but early bets are not much.  It'll turn cooler by Friday, but with highs then forecast to be near 60 degrees, that's still a little above normal. 

This stretch of pleasant weather is part of a flip in the weather pattern.  As you read in this here blog thingy earlier this week, widespread record low temperatures hit the Midwest and South, causing killing frosts as far south as northern Florida. 

These same areas that had got the cold air are not being enveloped by nice, toasty air. Some areas that saw record low temperatures will see a smattering of record highs over the next few days. A for instance is Omaha, Nebraska, which reached 16 degrees Tuesday morning. By tomorrow, the forecast high temperature there is 88 degrees.

We see some uncertain signs that this warmth in Vermont might last awhile. Long range forecasts keep our area warm into the first week of November, though the mild weather might be interrupted by a cold shot or two thrown in. 

 

Nice Weekend Continues. Then A Chilly Week, But Does Indian Summer Follow

An orange forest on a nice Saturday yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont. Despite the recent heavy rains, beautiful fall
foliage manages to linger in parts of the state.

 After that very soggy rainstorm Thursday night and Friday, it has turned out to be a delightful weekend across Vermont. 

It's true that the storm at the end of the week has muted the fall foliage, but it's still looking pretty spectacular in the Champlain Valley and in the low elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont still has splashes of color here and there, too, so all is not lost. Not yet anyway. 

Today - Sunday - is essentially a rerun of Saturday except that it will be a little cooler, and there might be a few extra clouds the further northwest you go. Enjoy today, because it all goes downhill somewhat for the upcoming week. 

We're about to have the coolest week we've had in Vermont since April. If you hate cold weather, relax.  The chilly upcoming weather will be pretty typical for late October. 

The nippy weather that's in the forecast does not seem like it will be as cold as some earlier forecasts indicated. It might be also a little less wet and a little less, ahem, snowy than previously advertised. 

Scattered showers will linger, especially in the mountains Monday night through Tuesday night. It'll almost surely be cold enough on the summits to allow for snow.  Snow flurries might still extend down to some valley floors.  A couple days ago, I was more sure that many valleys would see their first snowflakes of the season. 

Now, I'm not so sure. Some will. In any event, it's not quite time to get your snow shovels out of storage.  

In any event, snow flurries aren't at all unusual this time of year. In the Banana Belt of Burlington, the average date of the first autumn snow flurry is October 15.  That first flurry typically comes earlier than that in much of the rest of northern Vermont.

Burlington's first snow flurry of the season has come as early as September 20 in 1956 and 1991.  The earliest first inch accumulation was on October 9, 1979 and the earliest three inches was on October 10, 1925.

I guarantee Burlington will NOT see an inch of snow, never mind three inches, this week. 

It'll stay cool and mostly dry for the second half of the upcoming week, (Highs within a few degrees either side of 50, lows near the freezing mark.)

I don't entirely trust long range forecasts, but for what it's worth, I'm seeing signs of a pattern change that would give us mostly warmer than normal temperatures for the last ten days or so of the month. 

No guarantees on this, and even if the weather pattern turns warmer, there would still probably be some chilly days thrown in that mix, but dare we say we could be up for an Indian Summer in a little over a week?

Vermont November Warm Spell To Be Among Strongest, Longest On Record

Warm winds blowing over the Adirondacks this week
helped create these sculpted clouds over South Burlington,
Vermont. Warm, dry weather is forecast to 
continue through Tuesday. 

 Last evening here in St. Albans, Vermont, armed with a head lamp due to the early sunsets this time of year, I went out into my property to do more autumn clean up.  

At 7 p.m., I'm out there in a t-shirt, and even with that on and no jacket, I worked up quite a sweat.  It was so warm and balmy we would have loved to have dinner out on the deck had we not already put away the outdoor furniture for the winter.

Pretty remarkable. And I'm loving it. 

This is very pleasant, to say the least, and it's going to go on for awhile yet.  

I checked back on past records from Burlington, Vermont, and this will be among the warmest and longest stretches of November Indian Summer in the books. 

We probably won't reach the all time high for the month of November, which was 75 degrees, last set in 1950. But it could come close and some daily high temperature records might be threatened between now and next Wednesday. 

For comparisons sake, here are the daily high temperatures in Burlington for the warmest November stretches I could find:

November 4-8, 1938: 62, 72, 66, 74, 70.

November 4-10 1948: 60, 68, 75, 58, 56, 58, 74

November 2-10, 1975: 62, 66, 64, 58, 59, 68, 71, 64, 64.

Now, let's compare that to the actual so far, and forecast highs in Burlington for:

November 5-11, 2020: 67, 69, 70, 68, 70, 70, 66

So yeah, this will easily be a top 5 most intense November "heat wave."

You don't need to prematurely more the loss of the upcoming winter. It can and indeed has gotten pretty cold after the past November warm spells.  In 1938, it was below zero by the 25th and 26th. The winter that followed the 1975 November warmth was quite cold and snowy. 

I can't tell what will happen after the end of the month.  At this point, it looks like it will turn somewhat cooler starting next Thursday, but there are few signs of very cold, wintry weather later in the month. Long range forecasts call for generally warmer than normal temperatures around here through around November 20.

This warm spell is also accompanied by a lack of rain, which is bad because there's a lingering drought and dry conditions in Vermont. We could have used a wet November.  It does appear things will get somewhat wetter starting the middle of next week, but it remains to be seen how much rain we actually get. 

At least it's not as bad as the Midwest. They've also had a record warm temperatures and very dry conditions so far this month.  Wildfires actually broke out yesterday in Minnesota and South Dakota, which is very odd in November for that part of the nation 

It is expected to rain and turn cooler out there over the next couple of days.

Classic Indian Summer This Weekend In Vermont

Indian Summer is a period of warm, dry, often hazy weather in the autumn following some of the first freezes of the season. 

Even the fading perennials in my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens are adding color to the
landscape as autumn progresses. Expect
Indian Summer type weather this weekend

By that definition, we've got a classic Indian Summer going on right now. 

As we all know, the growing season ended in most of Vermont last weekend as some record cold descended on the Green Mountain State. We had a bunch of frosty mornings there. 

It has warmed up nicely in the past few days, and it will get even warmer for the weekend. 

Meanwhile, the  fall foliage is really popping, especially in the Northeast Kingdom and the higher elevations of the Green Mountains, so get out there and enjoy. 

I think the drought conditions are helping promote the brilliant reds in some of the trees, making the foliage more brilliant. I guess that's a rare positive in the bad news drought we're experiencing in New England. 

All this is part of that amplified weather pattern we've been talking about, the one that will bring hot, dry, windy weather to the West. That is worsening those wildfires out there. Those wildfires will maintain the haze here, as the smoke is blowing across the nation. 

Just to be clear, just because I like Indian Summer a LOT, I do hate that the haze is coming from the wildfires. I'm sure we'd happily live without the haze if it meant no destructive wildfires. 

Temperatures this weekend and the start of the week will actually be pretty close to normal for mid-summer, not the end of September.  Daytime highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. 

South winds will be increasing all weekend. Since it's so dry, don't do any outdoor burning, and be extremely careful with campfires, cookouts, discarded cigarettes and such.  You could start a forest fire. 

It's true that the humidity will be increasing somewhat this weekend, so it won't be "perfect" conditions for fires, but it will be bad enough  to make you want to take precautions. 

Meteorologists, looking at ever evolving data, have been forced to greatly postpone the onset of any rain we might get. Originally, early in the week, they were talking about rain coming in Sunday afternoon or evening. That rain has now been pushed back to Tuesday afternoon or evening. 

As delightful as the weather will be this weekend, I am so ready for a good soaking rain to limit the dust out there and perhaps begin to recover just a bit from the drought.