Vermont October Was Sunny - With Oddly Warm Days And Cold Nights; Dry Stretch Continued

October saw many days like this - clear skies with cold 
mornings and mild afternoons. The month was
overall slightly cooler than average, but days were
warmer than average, nights were colder
than average. 

 You probably noticed how often I referenced "big, fat high pressure systems" during October. 

Now, the figures are in and October in Vermont featured warmer than average daytimes and colder than average nights. 

That's unusual, but it makes sense in context of those big, fat high pressure systems. 

Those high pressure systems brought lots of unusually dry, sunny days. That meant the sun heated afternoons to the point they averaged above normal. It also meant nights got cold and frosty. 

Burlington's average low temperature was 38.7 degrees, which is a tad over three degrees below the "new normal." 

The nights were so cold that eight nights got into the 20s, the most since 2002, when there were also eight. The last time there were more than eight such nights in the 20s was way back in 1974, when there were ten such dates. This according to WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul. 

Add it all up, the average temperature turned out to be 49.2 degrees, which was 1.1 degrees below the "new normal."

The result was a month that on paper ended up averaging near normal. 

Take Burlington, the main reporting station had an average high during October was 59.6 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees above the "new normal" 

"New normal" is the climate-changed average temperature, based on all the temperatures from 1991 to 2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average. 

Overall, October comes in somewhere in the middle of the past 136 years of records I have for Burlington.  It was the 74th coolest, (or 62nd warmest) on record. 

The warmest it ever got in Burlington during October was 70 degrees. That's the lowest October high since 2009. The low of 26 was the coldest since 2015. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it was much the same. The average daytime hight at other weather stations across the state were about two degrees warmer than normal, give or take. Overnight lows were generally two to as much as three degrees colder than average. 

The bottom line: For places across the state, it was a month that was near to about a degree below the "new normal"  we're living under.  

Precipitation

It was a dry month statewide, thanks in large part to those big, fat high pressure systems that kept a lot of rainy storms at bay. 

In Burlington, October rainfall amounted to 2.52 inches, with is 1.31 inches lighter than normal. That left Burlington with the 55th driest October out of the past 127 years of records. 

Other reporting stations across Vermont were equally dry, or even worse. St. Johnsbury was among the "wettest," coming in just about two-thirds of an inch on the dry side. Montpelier's rainfall were a little over an inch below normal. 

Southern Vermont was even worse. Rutland had only 1.33 inches of rain, which was 2.65 inches below normal. Bennington had about 2.2 inches less rain that an October would normally bring. 

Outlook

As we've mentioned already, November is off to a mild start. For what it's worth, NOAA is calling for a classic, strong El Nino pattern across the nation. The northern half of the United States is forecast to be warmer than normal during November. 

Precipitation in November is expected to be above normal across the southern United States and in eh Plains. Here in Vermont, NOAA has our precipitation as a tossup - equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

As always, we shall see. 

A Calm Day In Vermont Before A WildStormy, Windy, Snowy, Frigid (For October) 48 Hours

The trees in back of my St. Albans, Vermont home, 
stubbornly green until recently, have finally changed
colors. Many of those leaves will blow off in the 
coming days due to windy, rainy, then frigid
weather. A brief winter intro is coming. 

We awoke to at skies that were at least partly blue, a nice switch from northern Vermont's gloom and gray skies from yesterday. Southern Vermont had some sun, but also a few lingering showers, so it wasn't really a perfect autumn day. 

Rainfall totals from our wet storm are completely in. It looks like a pretty broad area of northwest Vermont  had 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom, which really needed the rain, had a respectable one to two inches. Amounts generally tapered off as you went south. By the time you reached Route 9 in far southern Vermont, less than half an inch fell.

We're in for a bit of a wild ride the next few days until things really, firmly calm down again, so let's get into it

TODAY

The pick of the week. Not perfect, but pretty damn good. Lots of sunshine, mixed with sun clouds, will augment the beautiful fall foliage. It'll be cooler than yesterday, especially compared to the balmy temperatures southern Vermont  had yesterday. Most of  us will see the low 50s. 

Enjoy the foliage, because a lot of it will blow away starting tomorrow. 

FRIDAY

Here's where the excitement begins big time. Rain should spread into Vermont early in the day. It'll be a rainy, windy day, with the most wind in the Champlain Valley and many areas in the northern Green Mountains. This won't be a damaging wind storm by any means, except to the fall foliage. Winds should gust to 40 mph in some places. 

On the Green Mountain summits, winds should gust to 55 to 65 mph. Between the rain and the wind, it won't be a day to go on a hike. In fact, up there, it will be dangerous. 

We'll see another decent rainfall, too, with amounts coming in between a half inch and an inch for most of us by Friday night. 

The storm's sharp cold front will come through in the evening and temperatures will plunge through the 40s and 30s Friday night. Rain will change to snow in the mountains, though precipitation rates will get much lighter as drier air moves in. 

SATURDAY

Here's our introduction to winter. Thankfully, it won't last long. Snow levels will fall such that even valleys could see some early morning flurries. There might be a thin scrim of snow on the ground at elevations above 1,500 feet. A couple inches of snow will dust the summits. 

Even though some areas will see a little sun by afternoon, it will be incredibly cold for mid-October. We might be seeing some record cold "high" temperatures. The record cold high temperature in Burlington for Saturday is 42. In Montpelier, it's 37. Unless it's still relatively warm just after midnight, we'll come close to tying or breaking those records. 

The National Weather Service tells us temperatures on the mountain summits will hold in the upper teens to around 20 all day. Welcome to January in Vermont. For one day, anyway. 

Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder. If you can bundle up, go out and enjoy the snoliage views. Most of the leaves will have blown off, except in the lower, warmer valleys. But there will still be some. colorful trees and branches left. The contrast with the high elevation snow will be just lovely. 

SUNDAY

Definitely a cold start, but not as cold as you'd think, given how chilly Saturday will be. The core of the cold air will be moving away early Sunday. So, we'll start the day in the 20s, with a couple upper teens in the coldest hollows. Places like Burlington, St. Albans and other places close to Lake Champlain have avoided a freeze so far. Not this time. 

The day will get better as it goes along. Highs should reach to near 50, low 50s in the warmer valleys. The sun will be out, and winds will be much lighter. We'll actually have  lovely, crisp afternoon. 

NEXT WEEK

This week has been pretty wild for Vermont weather. Next week, not so much. Expect a fair amount of sun pretty much every day, with seasonable temperatures. That means frosty mornings in some spots with lows in the 30s, and highs in the 50s to low 60s. No weather systems of note seem to want to come through next week. 

We'll let you know if anything change. s

October Was World's Third Warmest, Continuing This Year's Trend

Once again it was hard to find many cool spots around
the world. It was the third hottest October on record
according to NOAA. 

The National Centers for Environmental Information is finally catching up after this fall's 43-day government shutdown and we now have the global and national climate data for October, 

It turns out that, according to the report released on Tuesday, once again last month, we had the third warmest October on record. If that sounds familiar, it's because it is. 

Says Yale Climate Connections:

"This is the fifth time in a  row that a calendar month has placed third for all time warmth behind 2023 and  2024. While 'third warmest' may not sound eye-poppingly impressive, this comes on the heels of an astoundingly warm couple of years that were fueled by a strong El Nino dent atop long-term human-caused warming."

If you are under the age of 50, you've never seen an October in which the world saw a cooler than average global October. 

Very much like September, though October was the third warmest, it was much balmier than the fourth warmest, according to NCEI.  Together, 2023 through 2025 has been ridiculously warm, compared to past centuries.  

The warmest places, relative to average, were in the Arctic and Antarctica, northern North America, southeast Asia, the northern Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean. In fact North America as a whole had their warmest October on reared. So did the Arctic and Antarctica. Antarctica's record was set by a wide margin.  

As usual, it was hard to find places in the world that were cooler than the 20th century average. An areas around Mongolia and south-central Russia were on the chilly side. Small pockets in southern Africa and South America also came in on the cool side. It looks like a remote spot in the far southern Pacific Ocean were chilly, too. 

So far, January through October, 2025 is running as second warmest on record says NCEI, mostly because of a hotter start to the year. Only 2024 was hotter.  I have my suspicions that this year might end up as third hottest, behind 2023 and 2024, but of course, who knows for sure. 

The bottom line is it's been insanely warm the last three years.

UNITED STATES

As for the United States, the Lower 48 had its eighth warmest out of the past 131 years, NCEI said. The warmest area was through pretty much the entirety of the Great Plains. Most states there had one of their top 10 warmest Octobers on record. 

Northern and eastern New England had a much warmer than average October, too. That was mostly driven by an early month heat wave that shattered previous records for the highest October temperatures on record. 

No region in the United States was particularly cool, though the Pacific Northwest and pockets of the southeast were slightly on chilly side for October. 

Precipitation was just slightly above average for the month in the United States. The northwestern Plains were on the wet side, but overall, rainfall wasn't all that extreme across the nation. 

 

Vermont October Was Warm, And Surprisingly Wet. Maybe The First Hints Of Drought Relief?

Very low water levels on Lake Champlain, seen here in
Milton, Vermont during a record late season
heat wave on October 6

November is here, so it's time to look back on an October weather.

The month brought more warmth to Vermont, and also provided the first hopeful signs that a few cracks might be forming in our deep, relentless drought. 

October in Vermont had its extremes, and a rainy end made the month actually turn out to be on the wet side. That's a trend we hope we will continue for the next few months.  

 The drought appeared to peak during an early month heat wave that shattered record highs. A rainstorm just after that heat wave offered a hint of wetter times ahead. 

We had to wait until the final 11 days of the month for the skies to finally open up. 

The rainfall was uneven, focusing on northwest Vermont, while cheating other parts of the state out of the heaviest downpours. Here in St. Albans, 6.76 inches of rain came down in those 11 days. In Burlington, those 11 days featured 4.55 inches. 

For the month as a whole, Burlington had 6.27 inches of rain, which surprisingly makes this past month the fourth wettest October on record in Burlington. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rainfall wasn't nearly as heavy in Burlington, but it was least everybody got some rain.  Most weather stations in the state had October rainfall just slightly above normal, with most reports coming in at 3.8 to 4.5 inches. 

Such rainfall is, of course, not enough to emerge from a deep drought. We'll watch anxiously for any heavy rain or even big snowstorms we can get our hands on.  

WARMTH

October was yet another warm month in Vermont, punctuated by an extreme late season heat wave on October 4-7.  Burlington tied its all time high for October with a high of 86 degrees. Montpelier tied its October record at 84 degrees. 

We were on the edge of an incredible October heat wave in southeast Canada that shattered monthly record highs by wide margins. 

All those 80s have been adding up in our age of climate change. In Burlington, 76 days this year got to 80 degrees or more,  Only five other years out of the past 130 have had more 80 degree days in a single year. Four of those years were since 2016. 

Storm clouds gather over South Burlington, Vermont
on October 20, signaling a welcome wet stretch
to close out the month. 

After that early October heat wave, the rest of the month featured no more extreme temperatures, but it remained consistently mild. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 52.9 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees above the climate-change influenced "new normal."

That "new normal" is the average of the years 1990-2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average, due to climate change.  

October, 2025 in Burlington was tied with 2012 as the 12th warmest on record. In general, most other weather stations in Vermont were also very roughly two degrees warmer than average for October. 

For only the seventh time since the 1880s, this October in Burlington had no days with a high temperature colder than 50 degrees. 

Unlike some Octobers, absolutely no snow fell in the state except in the highest elevations. That is until late last night.  Even before midnight switched the calendar to November, some places above 1,500 were snowing. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The outlook heading into November is mixed. 

Long range forecasts, always a bit of a crapshoot, predict near to above normal temperatures for November. The ever-important precipitation outlooks is a tossup, with mostly equal chances of above or below normal rain and snowfall. 

Despite the nice, wet end of October, we still need many drenching rainstorms to fully emerge from our tough drought.  

There's a little rain and mountain snowfall in the Vermont forecast, but nothing big enough to rock our world. 

Record Heat To End In Northeast and Canada, Though Despite Rain, Vermont/New England Drought To Continue

A person sunbathes amid record October heat Monday at
Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont on Lake Champlain
As you can see, the lake is incredibly low due to the
ongoing drought. 

Here in the Champlain Valley, we awoke this Tuesday morning to temperatures in the mid-60s, which is a little on the warm side for July, never mind October.  

True, the rest of Vermont was a little cooler than that, but we're still in bizarro world with the hot October weather. At least until tonight. 

On Monday, more record highs with this extreme heat wave hit Vermont, and many other areas of the Northeast and southeast Canada as well. 

We can confirm these records in Vermont:

84 in Burlington, besting the old record of 82 degrees

Montpelier reached 82 degrees, exceeding the old record of 79. 

St. Johnsbury reached 85, beating the old record by one degree. 

The core of the hottest air that was over our region and Quebec Sunday moved east a little, which is why much of Vermont was one or two degrees "cooler" than Sunday. The biggest record highs were in Atlantic Canada.

Now, four Canadian provinces have had all time record highs for October. The new record for Quebec was established Sunday with a temperature of 87.4 degrees in Gatineau. 

On Monday, Kouchbouguak, New Brunswick, reached 88 degrees to set a new provincial record for October. Prince Edward Island did the same, with a high of 83.7 degrees at Stanhope. Nova Scotia set a new October record with a reading of 87 degrees in Upper Stewiacke.

All-time October record highs were also set in several Maine cities, including 87 degrees in Fryburg, 86 in Augusta, 84 in Houlton and Presque Isle and 83 in Caribou. 

This has been an incredible heat wave for North America, as more than 2,000 cities and towns have set new record highs in the past six days. Some more records could well fall today in New England and far southeastern Canada.

VERMONT TODAY/TONIGHT

Things will start to change radically today here in the Green Mountain State to something more akin to normal. A long awaited cold front is about to slap us back into autumn. 

The first half today will bring more of the same. Temperatures will start to shoot up under sunny skies before noon. It could hit 80 degrees or a little more in Vermont before the clouds and rain arrive. 

I don't think we'll have record highs again today. The record highs for today are 83 in Burlington and Montpelier and 87 in St. Johnsbury. But, you never know, there could be surprises. 

Although the humidity is beginning to creep up ahead of the cold front, the winds are also increasing. Since things are so bone dry, the fire danger will be sky high today until the rain arrives,  The wind will make it worse, as the gusts would make blazes spread easily. 

That rain won't get here really until mid to late afternoon, so we have until then to worry about fires. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger as high to very high today. 

The amount of rain that's coming still looks pretty good. It will actually come down hard at times tonight. Overall, most of us should get three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take, by tomorrow morning. 

That'll tamp down the fire risk for awhile, but not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination. 

COLD AIR BLASTS IN

It's going to feel awfully cold tomorrow into Friday after the cold front goes by.  Temperatures will actually not be at all weird for October over the coming days, but this will be traditional flannel and fleece October weather. 

It'll be party cloudy tomorrow, kind of windy from the north and chilly. Highs should stay in the 50s to low 60s, which is pretty close to normal. 

The cold air will keep coming in tomorrow night. Some low clouds might leave rime ice on the mountain tops for the first time this season. Don't be surprised if the tops of mountains like Camels Hump or Mount Mansfield look a little white. A harbinger of things to come. 

Some of us will also have near our below freezing temperatures to start Thursday. Thursday itself will be bright and chilly, a classic fall day. Sunshine will barely help make it feel warmer as highs just reach the 50s. 

Thursday night and Friday morning will be the coldest so far this season. If you have avoided a frost so far this autumn, chances are your luck will run out by dawn Friday. It looks like only areas right near Lake Champlain will escape the frost. 

Many places well inland will have a hard freeze with readings definitely its the 20s. 

After that, it will warm up to near normal temperatures Friday afternoon through the weekend. That means lows near 40, highs in the low to mid 60s.  After early tomorrow, I still don't see any signs of additional rain beyond sprinkles in Vermont at least until October 17 or so.  

It Goes On And On; Global, U.S. October Continues Climate Change Meltdown

 As we do every month, we check out the data NOAA provides to find out how the U.S. and the world did with their weather and climate the previous month. 

Another very red global monthly climate map as
October was the world's second warmest on record.

For years now, these monthly reports have been almost exclusively bad news regarding climate change. 

Why break from tradition now? The news for October was crappy, too! 

THE WORLD

October turned out to be the world's second warmest on record, just a tiny smidge cooler than October 2023.

You might remember that this September ended 15 months of consecutive warmest months, as September was only second warmest. We're doing the same in October.

Sort of. Land areas had their warmest October on record. But oceans only had their second warmest October, so that dragged the entire world's average for the month down to second warmest. 

This tiny "cooling trend" if you want to call it that, was expected. An El Nino - which boosts global temperatures beyond even what climate change can do -- ended a few months ago. So I guess we've stopped breaking some records. At least for now. 

As has been the case for a long time now, it was hard to find notable cool spots in the world in October.

An area in and near the southern tip of South American was sort of cool. Along with a corner of Antarctica.  And a little area in the North Atlantic between southeastern Greenland and Iceland. 

Even that chillyish spot near Iceland is bad news.  It's another symptom of melt water from the ice caps of Greenland and elsewhere in the Arctic flowing into the North Atlantic. This is decreasing salinity in the region's water.

That has scientists worried the melt and changes will make a large, crucial Atlantic current system to collapse, causing abrupt  climate changes in Europe and elsewhere many orders of magnitude worse than anything we've seen since humans have been around. 

In October, most of the Arctic, the southwestern U.S., northern Mexico, parts of India and Pakistan, and a few pockets of Africa and South America had a record warm October.

 Other parts of the world that were way, way warmer than the 20th century average include most of South America, the  central and northeastern United States, sections of North Africa, huge swaths of Europe, the southern half of Asia, most of Australia and western Antarctica. 

I write pretty much the following sentence virtually every month, but I vaguely remember when I used the number 35 in it. But here goes: If you are younger than 48 years old, you've never seen a global October that was cooler than the 20th century average. 

The year to date (January-October) is the world's warmest on record by a wide margin. Basically, unless a big asteroid hits Earth any minute now, 2024 will be world's hottest on record. 

UNITED STATES

Just as you probably thought, October was super warm and dry in the Lower 48 of the United States. Officially, it was second warmest on record and tied for second driest. 

Almost all counties in Lower 48 were warmer than average
in October (orange and red shadings) Only a handful
were near average (in white). Even in warmer than
normal months, a few areas of the nation are cooler
than average. Not in October, 2024!

Pretty much everybody was warm in the United States in October, but as usual, some areas were toastier than others. Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Utah had their warmest October in at least 130 years. 

California, Colorado, Montana and Wyoming had their second warmest October. Ten other states were also in the top 10 ranking for hottest October. 

New Jersey and Delaware had their driest October on record. 

The first ten months of 2024 are the Lower 48's second warmest on record. Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin are all  had their warmest year to date through October. 

To nobody's surprise, November nationally and globally has been running hot so far. I'm sure we'll have a similar post in November telling everyone how hot and sweaty the month is.

These monthly climate posts on the state of the global and United States climate might seem tedious broken record type things,

But they serve an important purpose. It drives home the fact that climate change is roaring on, it's not abating and the effects are worsening. No matter who puts their head in the sand over this issue, the world needs to face reality.

I'm waiting to see if we step up to the plate or not. 

 

 

Just As You Probably Thought: October Vermont Was Warm, Dry

A warm, dry October in Vermont that was punctuated by
some great "snoliage" at mid month. 

 To the surprise to I imagine very few people October in Vermont turned out to be on the warm and dry side. 

Boosted by an especially warm second half of the month, October, 2024  mean temperature as measured in Burlington came out to 53.3 degrees. 

That's 3 degrees above the "new normal." which is based on the average of years from 1990 to 2020, when climate change had already started to elevate our temperatures. 

Had this same month occurred a few decades ago, it would have been more than five degrees warmer than average.

As it was, this October managed to be the ninth warmest on record in Burlington. Incredibly, it's the seventh month so far this year that has been one of the top ten warmest on record. That's just a complete re-write of the history books. Climate change indeed!

Everywhere else in Vermont also had a warmer than average October, but the departure from the "new normal" average was one to three degrees. 

We had a lot of clear or mostly clear days and nights, and that's reflected in the temperature data. Sunshine tends to boost daytime temperatures, but clear skies tend to be cooler than cloudy ones. 

Most Vermont weather stations had average daytime highs in October that were three to five degrees warmer than average.  But the average low temperature for October was close to average. Rutland and Woodstock actually had average October lows marginally cooler than the "new normal."

 Combined with lots of sunshine in September, the frequent sunny weather in October subjectively makes this the nicest autumn up to this point I can remember.  The bright, calm weather really extended the foliage season out to nearly the entire month, which is nice.

True, the lack of rain is a little disconcerting, but so far, the dry conditions in the Green Mountain State aren't nearly as bad as points south of here, which had almost no rain in October. 

DRY MONTH

 Burlington had a month's total of 2.35 inches, which is about an inch and a half on the dry side. The just ended month bucked a trend toward wetter Octobers.  This one in Burlington was the driest October since 2004.  In the 132 years since 1892, when good precipitation records started, 43 Octobers were drier than this year's. 

A perfect October sugar maple tree in St. Albans,
Vermont. Photo taken on October 23.  Foliage season
ran a little later than average thanks to a very
warm autumn so far. 

The further south and east you went in Vermont this October, the drier it got. St. Johnsbury had a shade under two inches of rain in October, which was more or less half the normal. 

Bennington's October rainfall was two inches of their normal 3.61 inches. Woodstock's rainfall was a scant 1.67 inches, nearly three inches below normal.

Despite the warmth during the month, snow made an early season appearance as it often does in October. In both cases the snow over-performed, but luckily caused little harm, and some benefits. 

The October 16 snow on the mountain summits was impressive. Mount Mansfield had a foot of snow in that episode, the most for so early in the season. Even at 3,300 feet up the mountain in Underhill State Park, 11 inches accumulated. Over in New York State, 15 inches buried the summit of aptly named Whiteface Mountain. 

This high elevation snow hit during peak foliage, so "snoliage" - colorful leaves and white-topped mountains under clear blue skies on October 17 was gorgeous, to understate how beautiful it was. 

Snow hit valley locations on October 27. Burlington had its first trace of October snow in four years. Many other locations had a dusting to two inches. Early morning temperatures fell below freezing that morning, so we had our first of the season little bout with icy roads. That contributed to a few crashes on the highways. 

Temperatures quickly warmed after that. And as I wrote Friday morning, it ended up bringing us by far the warmest Halloween on record. Numerous high temperature records were set, many of which clocked in as the warmest for so late in the season. 

Long range outlooks into mid-November - if they come true - look good for the heating bills, but bad for the fire risk and drought. NOAA is leaning toward a mostly warm next couple weeks with drier than average conditions. 

If November proves unusually warm in Vermont, this could prove to be one of our top ten warmest autumns. As it stands now, seven of the top 10 warmest autumns as measured in Burlington have occurred since 2011.

Yet another likely case of climate change affecting us right where we live. 

Record High Temperatures in Vermont, Surrounding Areas As Indian Summer Over-Performs

A very orange fall foliage hillside Monday in St. Albans
Vermont, which matched the record high temperatures
much of the region experienced today. 

 If you felt toasty as you were enjoying the lingering Vermont autumn foliage today, you weren't imagining things. 

Warm southwest breezes brought temperatures to record levels in and around the Green Mountain State today, October 21 

Burlington reached 77 degrees, edging out the old record of 76 degrees set in 1995. A final report wasn't in from St. Johnsbury as of early this evening, but they at least tied their record high of 77 set in 1963

Across the pond in Plattsburgh, New York, it was even warmer, soaring to a summer like 81 degrees. That broke the old record for the date of 80 set in 1979.

We've got two more days of balmy weather in Vermont before reality strikes. But don't worry that strike won't be brutal.

Forecasters are going with highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. If that comes true, we'll come close to, but probably not break record highs again. 

That not so brutal hit of reality on Thursday and Friday isn't so bad. We expect highs then to be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, which is actually pretty close to average for the season.

It could turn even colder toward Sunday and Monday, but again, if that happens, it will only be somewhat chillier than average (Highs in the 40s to near 50, lows in the 20s to near 30).

Plus, there's preliminary signs we could warm up dramatically again in about a week. 

This year has been remarkably warm so far and we are still on pace to have 2024 become the hottest year on record in Burlington. Unlike in other areas of the nation, though, daily record highs have been a little hard to come by in recent months. 

Monday's 77 degrees is only the second record high we've seen since early March. However, February brought us four daily record highs. It's been a really long time since Burlington recorded a record low for a date.

The last time we did have a record low was when the temperature reached 29 degrees on May 18, 2023. Sine that date, there have been a dozen record highs. 

Monday Evening Vermont Snow Patrol: It Didn't Get Into Valley, But Mountains White

Web cam of Route 105 in Jay looked pretty treacherous
with fresh snow falling late this afternoon

 The cold raw, rainy weather in Vermont lasted all day, and things didn't quite come together for any snow in low and most mid elevations, but the mountains sure are turning white.  

Most of the snow today was limited to about 1,800 feet or so. Northern Vermont endured a day long soaking rain, while southern parts of the state had a weird, showery day.

 Some of the southern Vermont showers were briefly heavy, but large chunks of the day stayed dry.

Snow levels were going down a bit in elevation this evening, but the precipitation was turning lighter, too. I don't have any official snow totals yet, but web cams in the mountains and on high elevation roads seem to indicate a good inch of snow fell at least. 

A burst of snow late this afternoon actually had Route 105 in high elevation Jay looking pretty icy and wintry. 

A few snow showers will continue tonight in the northern mountains. A disturbance in the chilly northwest flow of air over Vermont tomorrow night will probably yield a few more snow showers. Those could get lower in elevation, possibly to 1,000 feet above sea level or even lower if we're lucky.  

A few wet snowflakes could conceivably make into the Champlain Valley around Burlington later Tuesday night. We shall see!

There might even be some light accumulations Tuesday night at or above 1,500 feet. Mountain summits in Vermont could see a total of six to eight inches between what fell today and what will come between now and Wednesday morning. 

After that and some frosty weather Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night, an Indian Summer seems on its way by next weekend. 

I'll have a better update on snow prospects and  in Tuesday morning's post. 

Confirmed: World Had Hottest October On Record By Wide Margin

 As promised, we now have NOAA's latest temperatures check on the world, this one for October. As I've hinted at previously, October indeed was the hottest on record. 

The National Centers for Environmental Information tell us that October was nearly 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous warmest in 2015. Half a degree doesn't sound like much, but that's a hugely wide margin when you take in the entire world's data. 

Wildly remarkably, October was the fifth consecutive month to break the record for the world's hottest. 

If you are under 47 years old, you've never seen a global October that was cooler than the 20th century average. The long trend of climate change continues, and has accelerated, at least temporarily.  

The warmest areas relative to average were the Arctic north of Canada and Alaska; most of Siberia and Mongolia, southern Europe, central South America, southeastern Canada and New England. 

 One relatively cool spot on Earth in October was much of Antarctica (which is a good thing, considering how worried we are about massive ice melt down there).

 The only other sort of coolish areas were a part of northern Scandinavia, a small patch of the Indian Ocean southwest of Indonesia, a tiny spot in central Australia and southeastern Montana. That's about it. And those areas were only slightly cooler than the long temp average. 

I've already seen climatologists start to analyze November so far.  While global temperatures aren't trending quite as far above normal as they did in October, November still seems to be in line to become the warmest on record.

This year is so far the warmest on record, according to NCEI. We now have a greater than 99 percent chance of this year being the hottest on record. That would surpass 2016, which came during the last big El Nino.

El Ninos, as I've mentioned so many times I feel like I'm living the movie "Groundhog Day," boosts global temperatures. El Nino works in conjunction with climate change to break many record high temperatures across the Globe. 

Since El Nino is expected to last at least through the winter, expect more global - and local - high temperature records in the coming months. 

United States October: Another Warm One, Especially New England

Pretty much all of the United States except parts of
Montana and the western Dakotas had yet another
warm month in October, according to the latest data.

 Data continues to trickle in on how the world's climate fared this October. 

The latest news is the United States summary from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

Overall, the United States had its 18th warmest October out of the past 129 years. The United States represents only a tiny fraction of the Earth's surface. Evidence continues to come in to confirm October worldwide will be the warmest on record. 

New England, especially Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine were particularly warm relative to average. Maine had its second warmest October on record. Vermont and New Hampshire placed third in the warm rankings. 

Most of the rest of the Northeast, and much of the Southwest were above normal.  The only place that was noticeably cooler than the 20th century average was southeastern Montana. The rest of the nation was fairly close to average. 

It's pretty impressive how widespread the record and near record warmth for the first ten months of the year have been. According to NCEI:

"Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida each ranked warmest on record while Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey and Maryland each ranked second warmest for the January-October period. An additional 18 states had a top 10 warmest year-to-date period. No state experienced a top-10 coldest January-October."

Pretty much nobody in the United States experienced a chilly October.  The only places having a cooler than average 2023 so far are just a few isolated spots in the central Rockies. 

If you're looking for something normal, precipitation was pretty close to average in October. Same is true for the nation as a whole for the first ten months of the year. Of course, as usual, some places were way wetter than average, others were much drier.  The extremes canceled each other out.

Global analysis for the month of October should be out within a few days, and I'll provide an update when it's available. 

 

Sneaky Peak At October Global Temperatures Hint At Another Big Record Breaker

Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service offered
a grim sneak peak at Earth's October climate data.

Most of the official data for global temperatures and other facts and figures for October aren't out yet, but early indications are October was pretty much as scary as September. 

September was the world's hottest on record, but what really had climatologists hitting the panic button was the huge margin by which September's global temperature exceeded the previous record. 

The first major data to come out on a previous month's global climate is from the EU's Copernicus Climate  Change Service.  It shows that the world  just exceeded its previous record for the hottest October by 0.4 degrees Celsius. 

That 0.4 Celsius is roughly a degree Fahrenheit, which doesn't sound like much, but it is a whoppingly large margin when measuring the world as a whole. 

 Preliminary data suggests that 19 percent of the Earth's surface had its hottest October on record.  That's an extraordinarily large area for an all time record. The only month experts say is comparable is September. As was the margin by which October broke the previous record for hottest.

The preliminary October data makes it virtually assured that 2023 will be Earth's hottest year in 125,000 years, according to a team of EU scientists. 

Such hot global air really does a number on storms, making them stronger, more dangerous and more unpredictable. The world seems to be in a sort of mini-lull in big storms over the past couple weeks, with the exception of Europe's Storm Ciaran in October.

But I expect with the combined heat of climate change and El Nino, this is going to be a really destructive winter from intense storms around the world. 

We're still awaiting more data from NOAA, NASA and other agencies to assess this October's global temperature. But scientists say that data, due in a week or so, will be similar to the Copernicus findings. 

I'll keep you posted when the new data comes out!

 

Vermont October Wildly Warm, Wet, Especially Northwest Part Of State

October was warm, but rather cloudy, especially after
a record early season heat wave during the first week
of the month. This all made foliage season late.
This is a view of South Burlington, Vermont on Oct. 26

October, 2023 really re-wrote the weather history book in Vermont, especially around Burlington. 

 The month in Burlington was the fifth warmest and third wettest October in Burlington. On top of that, the high temperature of 86 degrees on October 4 set a new record high for the entire month. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it wasn't quite as wet, but it sure was warm.  Towns across Vermont were consistently five to six degrees warmer than normal, which I'm sure that like Burlington, that puts them in the top ten list for October warmth. 

If anything, that early October heat burst was more intense in much of the rest of Vermont than in Burlington.  St. Johnsbury got up to 87 degrees for two days in a row. Woodstock got to 86 degrees three days in a row.

After that sunny hot spell, the rest of October settled into a rather cloudy, dreary, but still warm pattern. That is until Halloween, when Vermont finally got its first frost of the season. Again, record late timing for that. 

It's not surprising that October was so warm.  Autumns during El Nino patterns, which the world is under now, tend to be on the mild side in New England. Not always, but usually.

Northwestern Vermont was pretty much the wettest spot in the Green Mountain State during October. 

That's because two big storms accounted for most of the rain during October, and both storms focused on the Champlain Valley. 

Burlington's top ten showing in the list of wettest Octobers seems to be part of a trend. Five of the top six wettest Octobers have occurred since 2006.

Montpelier, for a change was actually a smidge on the dry side. Rainfall in October, 2023 there was 3.37 inches, about a third of an inch below normal.

Rutland was just at normal with four inches for the month. St. Johnsbury had 4.51 inches of rain, which is a little over a half inch on the plus side. 

Bennington managed a rather wet October with 5.23 inches, which is 1.72 inches above normal. 

Like I say every month, I don't trust long range forecasts, but still, it feels like November could be shaping up to be quite different than recent months. 

It's starting out on the cold, and forecasts for the next couple weeks - if they verify - indicate a decent possibility of a colder than normal month. No guarantees on that, though. Forecasts beyond a week or so are iffy. And who knows what will happen during the second half of November.

November can really be a wild card in Vermont. Last year, we had our warmest November day on record. On the other hand, in November, 2019, winter cold and snow settled in by the second week of the month, with single digit temperatures by mid-month.  

Anything can happen. 

Monday Snow Falling Far North And West; Most Of Vermont In A Cold Shivery Rain

 The fairly weak but soggy storm system sliding by to our south is giving us a very miserable Monday morning as expected.  

Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cam shows
snow falling along Route 114 in Canaan, which is at
the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Snow is widespread
in southern Quebec this morning but so far
it's been almost all rain in Vermont, as expected.

Most of us in Vermont were near 40 degrees as of 8 a.m. and a steady rain was falling. For those of you looking for snow, so far it's been just north of the Canadian border, and in northwestern New York, 

As of 8 a.m., it was snowing in Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa and Massena, New York.  The storm flung a bit of slightly warmer air aloft over most of Vermont and New Hampshire, so it's been almost all rain so far. 

You can tell that "warmer" air is lurking above by mountain reports. It was only 25 degrees atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, but they were getting freezing rain, not snow. 

As the storm moves east, some of the colder air aloft on its northwestern flank might manage to bleed south some. That means the northern Green Mountains and perhaps even lower elevations in the north, including maybe the Champlain Valley could see some snowflakes before the precipitation tapers off by early afternoon.

I did notice a Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic camera this morning along Route 114 in Canaan, Vermont shows snowfall with a slushy coating on the road. Canaan is in the extreme Northeast Kingdom, right where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet. 

The rain has pushed October to become the seventh wettest in Burlington as of 8 a.m. today. If the city gets just 0.13 inches more, it will be third wettest. It will also be among the top ten warmest Octobers.

FREEZE, FINALLY

If for some reason you haven't brought in plants from outdoors you want to save, now's the time. The weather pattern has changed. I'm impressed by the huge area of freeze warnings the nation is under right now.

We brought our hibiscus indoors a couple weeks ago.
The warmer indoor air encouraged an explosion of
blooms, but some yellow leaves, as we get every
autumn as it doesn't like being indoors as much.
If you still have any sensitive plants outdoors, go
out in the rain and get 'em in now. Freeze tonight.

The freeze warnings extend from Arizona to Pennsylvania and southern Wisconsin to northern Mississippi. 

We won't be under a freeze warning here in Vermont, because the growing season is normally thought to be long past.  

But we are going to see our first, very belated freeze of the season tonight. Some parts of Vermont will have their latest first autumn freeze on record tonight.

Even in the Champlain Valley.  So empty those hoses if you still have them outdoors and bring them in.  

We brought our hibiscus, orange tree and geraniums in about a week and a half ago, figuring we'd have to do it sometime. But if you have stuff like that on your deck. rush 'em into the house. 

We finally have to button up for winter.  Not that hard core winter is going to hit quite yet.

COOL, BUT BENIGN

At least for now, we get a reprieve from the forces of winter. This week will be on the cool side, but trending milder to become close to normal by the end of the week and the weekend. There will be no big storms.  It'll often be cloudy, and we have the risk of a sprinkle or flurry here or there, but nothing major he season 

Amazing Vermont October Heat Continues; Weird Storm Concerns Weekend

Gardens in St. Albans, Vermont looking amazingly 
good for October because of the recent warmth
and this week's record heat. 

 I swear everything about yesterday in Vermont  - except the fall foliage - screamed lovely, typical August day. 

Even if it was October. 

Burlington set a new record high for the date, reaching 84 degrees. That broke a record for the date that had stood for a whopping 132 years.  The 84 was also a tie for the second highest reading on record for the  entire month of October.  

Today, we could tie or break the all time October record. More on that in a second. 

Everything in my experience - bad, good and great - yesterday was typical August, and that had me marveling. 

Well, at first, cursing.  Weed whacking for a client, I twice stumbled upon ferocious ground bee nests, and have at least a dozen stings as a result.  (I'm itchy, but fine). Finding these charming bee prizes is common in August. But unheard of until now in October. The should be dormant or dead by now, but it's been so warm, the attacking bees think it's still summer. 

I continue working after fleeing the bees.  But I had to stop mid-afternoon. The heat and sun were getting to me. Again, typical of August, but certainly not October.

I got home, and harvested tons of tomatoes, along with cucumbers, green beans and onions from my garden. Once again, that's something I routinely do in August. By October, the garden is normally dead, aside from some late season cold crops like lettuce. Weird again. 

Overheated again, I did another of my August routines. I have a little kiddie pool I often use to cool off during summer evenings. Last night, I did my kiddie pool routine, sitting down in the chilly water to watch darkness fall and listen to the concert of cricket song around me. 

So yes, this heat wave is weird, but mostly fun for most of us. 

Today, as mentioned, we are reaching the peak of this heat wave.  The record high for the entire month of October in Burlington is 85 degrees, set in 1947 and 1949.   Forecast highs today are between 83 and 86, so we might well tie or break that record. We will find out this afternoon.

HEAT EBBS SLOWLY

After today, increasing winds and clouds will eat away at the heat, at least during the days. But the next couple of nights should feature record high low temperatures. 

It should "only" get to between 75 and 80 degrees tomorrow, so record highs are less likely. Some clouds will blow in, but it will still be partly sunny. You'll notice  south wind increasing, too. 

Lows will Thursday and Friday mornings should be in the 50s in much of Vermont and low to mid 60s in the Champlain Valley.  Mid 60s is pretty much unheard of for overnight lows in October, so that will be something. 

Forecasts for an oncoming storm have slowed it down, so Friday is looking dry for most of the day. But it will be cloudy and becoming windy.  We should still get into the 70s, though, much warmer than normal for this time of year.

STORM CONCERNS

Eventually, that cold front we've been talking about will arrive, probably on Saturday. 

Remember yesterday I mentioned that cold front would be "negatively tilted," meaning it will have a northwest to southeast orientation as it approaches and passes through. That ensures a huge feed of deep moisture off the Atlantic Ocean. 

Now there's a new wrinkle.  Tropical Storm Philippe has been wandering around aimless near and east of the Lesser Antilles - way out there. Earlier forecasts had Philippe moving harmlessly northward in the central Atlantic, way offshore.

Now, it looks like the storm in Canada attached to that cold front will try to capture Phllippe and draw it toward perhaps Nova Scotia or Maine, much like Hurricane Lee last month. 

By the time it gets this far north, Philippe would have largely transitioned to a regular storm and not a tropical one. But it could add tropical moisture to that feed of wet air our cold front will bring.

As a result, expected rainfall Saturday has ticked upward.  So we do have to watch for the risk of some flash flooding. I still think that risk is somewhat limited because the dry weather we've had means soils can absorb some of the rain.  Still worth watching, though. 

We continue to expect cool, showery weather Sunday into next week, with yes, snow showers on the mountain tops 

October Vermont Warmth This Week Could Have Vermont Join The Record Heat Party

The never ending summer of 2023 is continuing into October as near record warmth will bathe Vermont this week.  

Sunflowers still going strong in St. Albans, Vermont as
we enter an October week that will probably feature
record high temperartures.

 

High temperatures in warmer valleys Tuesday through Thursday should hit the low 80s across the Green Mountain State. For reference, normal highs this time of year should be in the low to mid 60s.

There's even a slight, but still real chance that Burlington could tie its all time high for the entire month of October, which is 85 degrees

Other cities have done so already under this expansive area of oddly warm weather. Minneapolis got up to 92 degrees yesterday, the hottest that city has ever experienced in October. The heat forced the cancelation of the Twin Cities Marathon.  Usually, that marathon held this time of year,  has runners enjoying temperatures in the mid-60s. 

It was even hotter in Wisconsin. Madison and Appleton both set new record highs for the month of October with a scorching 97 degrees in both cities.

We won't be able to get that hot here in Vermont, but the warmth will still be impressive. That stalled high pressure that has been over eastern Canada for the past week or so has intensified and expanded into the eastern United States.

This high pressure is incredibly warm for this time of year through a deep layer of the atmosphere, guaranteeing unseasonable heat.  Already, Sunday wasn't far off from a record high, reaching 78 degrees on a day when the record high was 80.  Today should get into the mid 70s,  Tuesday through Thursday, Burlington will probably have three consecutive days of 80 degree temperatures. In October, mind you! 

Three consecutive 80s wouldn't be an October record. In 1947, there were four such days in a row in Burlington.

I'm also serious about this being a never-ending summer.  Sure, we had a nasty, destructive frost in mid-May, but that damaging event only lasted a day or two. We've had frequent bouts of summer weather since April. During the middle of that month, temperatures soared to record highs in the mid and upper 80s. 

June opened with a temperature of 96 degrees, the hottest for so early in the season. Though the rest of June, July and August were not  especially warm under all the rain clouds we had during that time, it was exceptionally humid much of the time, making the months feel pretty insufferable. 

Then September hit, ending up tying for the fourth warmest on record. And now this October hot spell. Almost seems like something like climate change or something is going on, 

This October heat wave will of course end.  We haven't had rain in a long time now, which is actually a relief. A weather pattern change this weekend will probably bring us a healthy dose of rain, followed by much cooler weather. 

By the time Sunday rolls around, we could have highs only making it into the 50s. That's not the least bit unusual for October in Vermont, but it would surely be a shock to the system. 

 

World Just Saw Its Fourth Hottest October On Record

Most of the world was warm once again in October. NOAA
says it was, globally, the fourth warmest October on record.

 The numbers are in from NOAA, and for the world as a whole, October, 2022 was the fourth warmest on record.

The data with this goes back 113 years. 

This October was "cooler" than only the recent Octobers of 2015, 2019 and 2018.

This October broke with consistency just ever so slightly.  Most months this year were fifth or sixth hottest on record.  So this October, by comparison, was ever so slightly steamier.

The Northern Hemisphere had its second hottest October on record, and Europe came in at #1 hottest October. 

You have never seen an October on Earth that was cooler than average unless you are age 47 or older. 

The warmest parts of the world, relative to average, were across most of Europe, northern and western North America, and large swaths of Asia and Africa.

In the United States, it was warmer than average in the western third of the nation and in New England, and a little on the cool side in the Southeast. 

Speaking of the above-mentioned sixth place placing for several months this year, 2022 to date is running as sixth hottest on record. At this point there's a 99 percent chance 2022 will be among the top ten hottest Earth years on record. But there's only a two percent chance of it landing in the Top 5.

An ocean and atmospheric pattern called La Nina has been going on for more than two years now and is persisting even now. La Nina dramatically cools the water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. La Nina's also tend to cool the Earth as a whole a little bit. So it's disconcerting that we're having such a warm year globally.

Other highlights of the report showed that the ice extent in October was the second lowest on record in Antartica and eighth lowest on record in the Arctic. 

October Was Another Warm, Dry Month In Vermont

A forest in full autumn colors at mid-month near St. Albans,
Vermont. We had plenty of mild, sunny days during October
to enjoy the fall colors.

 The National Weather Service offices crunched the numbers for October and once again, Vermont had another warm, dry month.  

That, in general seems to be a trend this year. 

Though dry and warm, October didn't break any monthly records.  The month did not land in the top 10 list of toastiest or most arid. 

Generally speaking, most places across the state were roughly about two degrees on the warm side. Montpelier was an exception, coming in at four degrees balmier than average. 

To some people, October felt like it was warmer than it was. That's because the first half of the month was slightly cooler than normal. Since that's generally the warmer half of the month, it didn't feel so bad.

On average, the temperature really plunges during the second half of October. But this year, that didn't happen. It stayed warm, at least on most days.  That's especially true for October 25 and 26, which were so much hotter than normal that it skewed the entire month toward above average.  

Overnight lows both days were record warm, as was the high temperature on October 26. The 78 degrees in Burlington on October 26 was the warmest for so late in the season. The overnight low temperature in Montpelier October 26 was 62 degrees, which would have been a couple degrees warmer than average in July. 

Things were looking up at mid-month to end lingering dryness from summer was we had a very wet storm around October 13 and 14. But the rainfall sputtered, with not much falling through the second half of the month. 

Most places were pretty consistent being an inch to 1.5 inches below normal with rainfall. Even the summit of Mount Mansfield was on the dry side. Normally they collect 7.63 inches of precipitation up there in October. This year, the highest peak in Vermont only squeezed out 4.2 inches. 

On the very bright side, it was a spectacularly beautiful month for leaf peeping. The colors were tremendous, and we enjoyed plenty of sunny days to take in the splendor. 

Looking ahead, most of the first half of November looks quite warm in Vermont. Daily temperatures will be far above normal daily through the upcoming weekend, with record highs possible toward Saturday and Sunday. 

That's not to say the entire month will be warm.  I've seen Novembers that open like a never ending summer, but we're plunged into the depths of winter during the second half of November. That could happen this year, but of course there's no way of knowing quite yet.

I'd suggest getting your autumn chores done by mid-month, because like it or not, winter is on our doorstep. It's just a matter of time.

Nice Weekend Continues. Then A Chilly Week, But Does Indian Summer Follow

An orange forest on a nice Saturday yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont. Despite the recent heavy rains, beautiful fall
foliage manages to linger in parts of the state.

 After that very soggy rainstorm Thursday night and Friday, it has turned out to be a delightful weekend across Vermont. 

It's true that the storm at the end of the week has muted the fall foliage, but it's still looking pretty spectacular in the Champlain Valley and in the low elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont still has splashes of color here and there, too, so all is not lost. Not yet anyway. 

Today - Sunday - is essentially a rerun of Saturday except that it will be a little cooler, and there might be a few extra clouds the further northwest you go. Enjoy today, because it all goes downhill somewhat for the upcoming week. 

We're about to have the coolest week we've had in Vermont since April. If you hate cold weather, relax.  The chilly upcoming weather will be pretty typical for late October. 

The nippy weather that's in the forecast does not seem like it will be as cold as some earlier forecasts indicated. It might be also a little less wet and a little less, ahem, snowy than previously advertised. 

Scattered showers will linger, especially in the mountains Monday night through Tuesday night. It'll almost surely be cold enough on the summits to allow for snow.  Snow flurries might still extend down to some valley floors.  A couple days ago, I was more sure that many valleys would see their first snowflakes of the season. 

Now, I'm not so sure. Some will. In any event, it's not quite time to get your snow shovels out of storage.  

In any event, snow flurries aren't at all unusual this time of year. In the Banana Belt of Burlington, the average date of the first autumn snow flurry is October 15.  That first flurry typically comes earlier than that in much of the rest of northern Vermont.

Burlington's first snow flurry of the season has come as early as September 20 in 1956 and 1991.  The earliest first inch accumulation was on October 9, 1979 and the earliest three inches was on October 10, 1925.

I guarantee Burlington will NOT see an inch of snow, never mind three inches, this week. 

It'll stay cool and mostly dry for the second half of the upcoming week, (Highs within a few degrees either side of 50, lows near the freezing mark.)

I don't entirely trust long range forecasts, but for what it's worth, I'm seeing signs of a pattern change that would give us mostly warmer than normal temperatures for the last ten days or so of the month. 

No guarantees on this, and even if the weather pattern turns warmer, there would still probably be some chilly days thrown in that mix, but dare we say we could be up for an Indian Summer in a little over a week?

October Was Globally Another Really Warm Month

The world was very toasty again in October, 2021. 
Note the coolness in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That 
is a sign of La Nina, which should have helped
cool the world just a bit. Not this year. 

 New data was released Tuesday indicating October for the world as a whole was the fourth warmest on record.  

The month across the globe came out to average 57.2 degrees, or 1.6 degrees hotter than the 20th century average, says the National Centers For Environmental Information or NCEI. 

That departure from normal might not seem like much, but if you average the whole world's temperature and come up with something that far above normal, that's pretty impressive. 

Octobers are now two degrees warmer than they were way back in the 1880s. Says the NCEI:

"The last eight Octobers (2014-2021) all rank among the eight warmest Octobers on record. October, 2021 also marked the 45th consecutive October and 442 consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally, above the 20th century average."

Basically, if you're about 37 years old or younger, you've never seen a month for the world as a whole that was cooler than average. 

The eastern half of North America, northern Russia a good chunk of South America and southwestern China were especially toasty, relative to average in October. For the record, NCEI ranks Vermont as having its third warmest October on record. 

With a warm year almost in the books, 2021 is pretty much a shoo-in for one of the top ten warmest years on record. NCEI gives it a more than 99 percent chance of happening.

By the way, this warm year is happening despite a La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean. A La Nina pattern creates cool water in the eastern Pacific.  This, in turn tends to turn the whole world just a bit cooler, so this year's global balminess overcame that. 

I'm starting to become afraid as to what will happen when we eventually flip over to the opposite pattern, an El Nino, which tends to boost global temperatures.