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| It used to be in Vermont that by the time you got to October, it was too late to fetch tomatoes from your garden. But judging from my St. Albans raised bed, I've got quite a crop to pick on this toasty October day. |
As advertised, we're in a remarkably large, toasty air mass that's setting record highs from Minnesota to Ontario and back down into the Midwest and East Coast.
Here In Vermont, I'm pretty sure we're going to see some record highs over the next three days. And some record high low temperatures on a couple mornings, too.
The forecast hasn't changed much at all, so we're still expected a couple days in the low 80s. Things will probably peak tomorrow, but today will be right up there.
The record high in Burlington today is 82 degrees, set way back in 1891. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is calling for a high of 83 today. So we'll see how that works out.
October is known for its crisp, cool, often frosty nights. Not this week, my friends. Lows will mainly been the 50s the next few days, with some low 60s in the Champlain Valley.
That's pretty close to normal overnight lows in July, and also not far off normal high temperatures this time of year.
I'm thinking tomorrow might even be a degree or two warmer than today, but then, we'll begin to lose the heat. Slowly at first, then we see a shock to the system.
Thursday might not make it to 80 as winds and clouds begin to increase. Thursday night will be downright muggy. Friday will feel oddly humid for October as well, as the chances of rain ramp up.
That rain will end what will probably be among the longest dry spells on record in northern Vermont. WPTZ meteorologist Tyler Jankoski, who thankfully seems to love digging into climate stats, says this dry spell in Burlington will last a total of 17 days. A rainless streak that long or longer has only happened 18 times since the 1880s, Jankoski tells us.
Of course, after the incredibly wet summer we had, this long dry spell has done absolutely no harm to Vermont. In fact, it's helped. Soil conditions have gone from totally soggy to just kinda damp during this welcome rain-free period. Yes, I know central and southern Vermont has had some rain, but really, not all that much.
Late Friday into Saturday, a cold front comes in to change everything. It looks like the cold front will have a slightly odd orientation, known as a negative tilt.
Most cold fronts are oriented northeast to southwest, or at least north to south as they approach and pass through our area. This one will be oriented northwest to southeast as it approaches. That will create a fetch of really, really wet air from the Atlantic Ocean that could cause some pretty substantial downpours.
Interestingly, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern New England, including all of Vermont, in a slight risk zone for excessive rain and possible flash flooding on Saturday. That this forecast would be out there suggests fairly high confidence in a lot of rain Saturday.
Given the long dry spell we've had, the soil in Vermont is much better prepared to soak up a fair amount of the expected rain when and if it does arrive. So far, then, I'm definitely NOT ready to hit the panic button regarding a new risk of flooding.
That said, it's worth keeping - for now - a relaxed eye on that situation.
One reason I'm not yet worried is so far, a "lot" of rain with the weekend system hints at one to two inches totals, with perhaps locally higher amounts. We should be able to handle that. Updates to follow, of course.
After the rain mostly ends, we have some big changes in store. By Sunday and on into next week, high temperatures will only make it into the 50s or even just upper 40s in some of the cooler spots. That's actually a little cooler than average for October, but not really that unusual.
In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington went so far so say a four-letter word. That word being "snow."
The meteorologists think that the summits of the Green Mountains could see their first snow showers of the season. With white-topped mountains and fall colors in the valleys mixed, that might be your shot at taking some great "snowliage" photos.
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