Climate Change Is Rewriting Vermont Weather History

A woman found solitude in a Burlington, Vermont park 
Wednesday as the high temperature reached 86 degrees,
the hottest on record for the month of October.

 UPDATE: 4:30 PM Thursday.

Burlington set another daily record high today, reaching 83 degrees That broke the record high for the date of 82, set in 1926,

High clouds and a gusty south winds prevented temperatures from reaching the all-time October record high we had yesterday.

After today, the record heat is over, but we still have a couple days of oddly mild weather. 

The air flow is increasingly coming from the southeast, drawing Atlantic Ocean air into the region.

The result will be cooler but still warmer than normal temperatures by day. But it will also become a little more humid. That ensures very warm overnight lows tonight and Friday night. 

In the Champlain Valley, we won't see temperatures under 60 degrees until sometime on Saturday.  That's very odd for October.

That long-awaited cold front is still on schedule, with a burst of heavy rain pretty likely Saturday or Saturday night. The heaviest rain will be in a fairly narrow band, and it's hard to say who gets the most rain out of this. 

Generally, the forecast is for one to 2.5 inches of rain with this system. There is a low but not zero risk of some flooding from this. But I'm still not super worried about it. Unless some other factor enters the mix to enhance the rain. 

It will still feel shockingly cold starting Sunday and continuing into next week. That means highs in the 50s and lows in the 35 to 45 degree range. There could be some snow in the mountains.  Snowliage!

Those forecast temperatures, as I've said before, are not the least bit unusual for October. But since it's been so warm, we will definitely notice the change.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Wednesday was definitely one for the weather record books, that's for sure. 

As I reported yesterday afternoon, it got up to 86 degrees in Burlington Wednesday, the hottest October day on record. The old record was 85 on October 11, 1949 and October 17, 1947. 

Montpelier tied its October record at 84 degrees. 

All time record highs for an entire month should be rare events, perhaps happening very roughly once a decade.

 That's especially for places like Burlington, which has data going all the way back to 1884.  With that many years piled up, we should almost have had all the extremes we could possibly have had by now. 

Lately, though, all time monthly records have been falling at a quicker pace, thanks to climate change. 

Just last year, Burlington set a new all time high for the month of November, reaching 76 degrees. In May, 2020, we set a new all time high for that month at 95 degrees. Back in 2017, it got to 72 degrees in February, far exceeding the previous record high for that month. And in 2015, a new high for the month of December was set with 68 degrees.

That's five all time monthly record highs in just a decade. The last time Burlington so much as tied a monthly record low was in June, 1986.  The city hasn't broken a monthly record low since 1979.

Then there are all those new hottest for so early in the season and hottest for so late in the season records we've been setting. Just this past April 13, it was 88 degrees, by far the hottest for so early in the season.

On October 26 last year, it was 78 degrees, the warmest for so late in the season.

All time records like Wednesday's are unsettling for sure, but don't really cause any physical harm. It really hasn't been hot enough this week to endanger peoples' health. 

The problem is other climate extremes we've been experiencing - and those coming down the pike - do harm us. We only have to look back at this past July and August to the catastrophic Vermont floods for an example.

Plus, real heat is dangerous. It's the number one weather killer in the nation. Worse than hurricanes, floods and tornadoes. 

If we just set five monthly record highs, what's to prevent all time highs in middle of summer to fall?  Vermont's all time hottest temperature was 105 degrees, way back in 1911.  The hottest it's been in Burlington in the past century and a half is 101 degrees.  

Those all time records are now vulnerable due to climate change. It's only a matter of time before it gets to 102 or more in Burlington, or 106 or more somewhere in Vermont.  Or, we could see a week or two or more daily highs in the upper 90s, and that would be dangerous, too.

It's not just us, of course. New records and extremes are occurring worldwide.  I'm just highlighting some of what we're experiencing here in Vermont. 

Yes, the 86 degrees Wednesday was an incredibly pleasant flashback to summer.  But on one level, it makes one nervous about potential summers to come.

FORECAST

We have one more day of sunshine and near 80 degree temperatures, but it won't get as hot as it did Wednesday. Freshening winds and a few clouds - the first signs of an approaching cold front - will temperatures down just a bit. 

Friday is still looking mostly dry and warm as the front is in no hurry to get here. But it will be cloudier, and somewhat windy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That cold front, as advertised, will have loads of moisture with it. It also looks like what will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe will add an extra boost to this system.  

We're still looking at a real soaker, with perhaps one to three inches of rain.  Forecasters are doing a BOL on possible minor flooding, but the long dry spell we had should help temper that threat somewhat.