Saturday, October 28, 2023

Sharp Flip To Colder Vermont, And The Chill Will Have Staying Power

Harvesting beans just a week ago in 
my St. Albans, Vermont garden. Until
now, such a late harvest for beans
was unheard of in the Green Mountain State
Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley this morning were in the mid-60s, which is actually warmer than normal for a July dawn, never mind the end of October. 

Enjoy it, because as of this writing at 8 a.m. Saturday, we have only a few more hours of it. Spoiler: We have a week of November like weather coming, and for some of us, there's snow in the forecast. 

The warmth this week has been impressive, though not as big-time as the beginning of the month, when we set all time record highs for the month. 

Still, Montpelier managed a record high of 71 degrees Friday, though records only go back to 1949. So it could have been warmer before that. There's evidence for that. Burlington fell short by one degree of tying a record  high of 74, set in 1947.

Across the pond, Plattsburgh had a record high for the date of 74, besting the old record of 72.

Rain showers were gathering in New York State and heading toward Vermont at dawn today. They won't amount to much, except they're part of that strong cold front heading our way. 

I wouldn't wear shorts and t-shirts out like I comfortably did yesterday. It was still summer wear weather  early this morning, but temperatures will fall this afternoon, especially the further northwest you go.

For instance, Burlington's forecast has an expectation of around 67 degrees at noon, but down to the mid-50s by dusk and mid-40s before midnight. 

And this the cold (but not at all abnormal!) weather begins. 

SUNDAY

Latest forecasts are holding off on the light rain for northern Vermont. But it still looks another rainy and dreary Sunday afternoon the further south you go. Rain won't be heavy, but with damp conditions and overcast everywhere, it won't be a nice day.

Summits will start to see snow Sunday afternoon or evening and snow levels will fall somewhat overnight, leading to a potentially interesting Monday for some of us

MONDAY

Although precipitation will not be heavy, it will be noticeable, especially as many of us see snow Monday morning.  This will be the first time this season some of us will have to drive in it. 

The snow, and the risk of slick roads, should be mostly at elevations of near 1,500  to 2,000 feet and above. That means most of us will be fine, though a few wet snow flakes could mix in all the way down to valley floors. 

Last leaves of autumn cling to trees near the 
Winooski River in Burlington Friday. 

Since none of us are used to driving in snow and some people don't have winter tires yet, there could be some spin outs on higher elevation roads and highways Monday morning. 

Think Route 4 at Mendon Mountain, Route 9 east of Bennington, possibly the high terrain along Interstate 89 near Brookfield, Route 17 over Buels Gore, places like that. 

Watch this one, though. I've seen surprises this time of year in which snow levels go lower than forecast. You never know. 

The rain and snow will taper off some in the afternoon, but it will remain cold

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Most of Vermont has extremely oddly not had a freeze yet. That will change in the upcoming week.  Even the Banana Belt Champlain Valley should get below freezing on at least some mornings between Tuesday and Friday. 

That is extraordinarily late.  I found myself shockingly harvesting green beans last week, and I'm still getting healthy lettuce that was never protected from frost. 

Daytime highs should be in the 40s each day. 

This seems cold after our weirdly warm autumn so far. But the expected temperatures are only slightly cooler than normal, and it's been much colder than this in the past in late October. 

Record lows in the Champlain Valley are running in the 15 to 20 degree range, and record cold highs are in the low 30s.  We won't come remotely close to that. 

Despite the chillier weather to close October, it will still be among the top ten warmest Octobers on record, at least in Burlington. 


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