Winter Forecasts Mostly Think Vermont/North U.S. To Be Warm. *Results May Vary

For what it's worth, NOAA predicts a warm winter
across the northern tier of states, including here in
Vermont. But don't hang your hat on this. Long
range forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

 It's that time of year when everybody and their brother attempt a forecast for the upcoming winter's weather.  

Fine, I'll play along again, but as always, don't be the least bit surprised if things turn out to be completely different than the various winter forecasts you see in this post.

I'll tell you what the winter of 2023-24 will end up being like in, I don't know, March?

For what it's worth, NOAA this past week released its winter forecast.

It calls for a classic El Nino pattern. Overall, the nation is in for a warm winter, if NOAA is correct. The strongest chances of having a warm winter, relative to average would most likely be in the Pacific Northwest, New England and Alaska.

The NOAA winter precipitation forecast is also classic El Nino, feature a greater chance of drier than normal weather in the northern Rockies, far northern Plains and around the Great Lakes.

Chances for above normal precipitation would extend across the southern tier of the United States from California to the Carolinas. The greatest chance of a wet winter would be across Florida and southern Georgia.

Here in Vermont, NOAA says it's a tossup as to whether it will be wet or dry this winter. 

In my experience during El Nino winters in Vermont, it seems like the early winter is the warmest relative to average and then it gets colder toward late winter. I have no idea whether this will be the case this year, but I'm just throwing that out there, as I've seen it before. 

For what it's worth, NOAA got last winter's forecast right, at least here in the Green Mountain State. The prediction was for a warm winter with equal chances of it being wet or dry. 

The reality was last winter was the third warmest on record,  and was a little wetter than average. However, NOAA got other regions wrong. They did not forecast a remarkably wet winter in California, for instance.

The Weather Channel's winter forecast roughly mirrors NOAA, with the most of the nation, except the Southeast, having a mild winter. The Weather Channel maps overall have the best chances of a warm winter north of a west-east line from about San Francisco to New York City.

Here in Vermont, the Weather Channel kind of echoes my gut feelings. Early winter could be very much on the warm side, but by February, things would be closer to normal, says the home of Jim Cantore.

The Weather Channel missed the mark - at least for us in Vermont - last winter. They said it would be somewhat colder than average (but not extremely cold). But it was extremely warm, so that's a miss. 

AccuWeather is also predicting a classic El Nino type winter with warmer conditions to the north and somewhat cooler south, relative to average.

The difference is AccuWeather is not nearly as bullish on the warmth as NOAA or The Weather Channel. Although AccuWeather thinks the northern third of the U.S. will be on the warmish side, the only really warm regions would be the northern Rockies and the western Great Lakes. They're also predicting more snow in the eastern United States than last winter.

AccuWeather is predicting somewhat above average snowfall for interior New England, including all of Vermont this winter. 

I'm afraid to say AccuWeather kind of botched last year's forecast. They did expect a fairly warm early winter in the Northeast, which turned out to be true. But New England was supposed to have a fairly snowy winter, great for skiing, which didn't happen. Their worst mistake was saying that California would remain dry, and drought would continue. Oops. 

The other usual suspects have also issued their winter forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanac said that most of the central and western United States will have a cold, snowy winter. New England is in for a mild, but snowy winter, says the publication. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac got it wrong for Vermont last winter. They predicted a cold snowy winter. As noted, it turned out very warm. Also, snowfall was somewhat below normal. 

The rival Farmer's Almanac (I guess it's not so old) is forecasting a cold, stormy winter in northern New England. The same publication also said we would have a cold, stormy winter last year, which of course didn't happen.  

As noted, I have no idea who among these prognosticators who is right. Another mystery for me is all the emphasis on winter outlooks every year. We do see spring, autumn and summer outlooks, but those predictions lack the breathless anticipation and certainty of the forecasters, despite their weak track record. 

Anyway, enjoy your winter. However it turns out.