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| A bit of sun broke through the clouds in Charlotte, Vermont Wednesday afternoon, lighting up some late season fall foliage. |
That's a long time to go with every day bringing the same weather over and over in a state noted for its changeable conditions.
It hasn't been all bad. We've had splashes of sunshine here and there. Rainfall has been scattered and brief. And it's been on the warm side, especially at night.
The weather, though tolerable, has been pretty boring, though, to be honest.
Well, folks, changes are finally coming, but not everybody will like them. We are getting into the end of October, though, so we can't expect that much greatness.
A temperature inversion that has been holding in the clouds is finally forecast to break today, just in time to make room for a new storm.
The sun will probably come out, at least a little this afternoon, and it will be warm again with highs topping out in the 60s. You'll notice a real breeze kick in, too. Which is a change, as it's been pretty calm along with the patchy drizzle and clouds.
Friday, it'll be cloudy and warm with a rising chance of rain as the big weather changes approach.
VERY WET SATURDAY?
One storm is coming in from the west, another from the south. They'll tend to merge over New England Friday night and Saturday. That means we're in for another rainy weekend. Especially Friday night and Saturday. Sorry kiddies, Saturday looks like a washout. This won't be the spotty drizzly we've been having, but a true soaking.
As it stands now, this looks to be a soaker, with most of us seeing more than an inch of rain between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center actually has us in a marginal risk for flash flooding Saturday.
However, I don't think there's much of a threat. It won't be enough rain to really fill the rivers. I suppose there could be a little street flooding from storm drains clogged with leaves. And if more rain than expected comes, there could be some issues. But worse case scenario at this point looks like very minor flooding.
COLDER BLAST
As the storm begins to depart, it will really wind up over eastern Quebec. That means much colder weather, with gusty winds by Sunday. It will also be showery, so absolutely not a nice day.
The rain on Sunday will probably be just occasional and not heavy, but it sure won't be pleasant as temperatures hold in the 40s with northwest winds probably gusting to 30 mph, at least as things look from this vantage point.
Mountain summits look like they'll have a real chance of snow Sunday and Sunday evening.
Monday will be brighter, but still much chillier than we've gotten used to. Most of us will stay at or below 50 degrees all day. Which leads us to the first widespread frost and freeze of the season.
FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
This threat of the first freeze of the season Monday night and Tuesday morning is awfully late. In fact it will be the latest first freeze of the season on record in many parts of Vermont.
Oddly, there won't be any frost or freeze warnings with this, because it's considered past the growing season. Though many of us are still enjoying harvests from our gardens and late blooming flowers in the perennial beds.
It's a little early to tell for sure, but the Banana Belt Champlain Valley might not even get below freezing. Current forecast lows for Burlington are 35 degrees Tuesday morning. That's setting Burlington up for its own potential record for latest first freeze.
If there's no freeze this coming Tuesday, October 24 as measured at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington, then an expected warming trend over the course of next week will keep a freeze at bay even longer.
The record latest freeze as measured at the airport was on October 26, 2018. Prior to 1941, Burlington's weather was measured closer to Lake Champlain, which has warmer nights than at the airport during the autumn.
When records were kept near downtown Burlington, the latest first freeze on record was November 1, 1920. It'll be interesting to see how we do.
None of this weather over the weekend and early next week is the least bit unusual for this time of year. But we continue to get a false sense of security by this long spell of warm weather. It's been mostly near normal or warmer than average with only the briefest of exceptions really since late August.
It's been a strange ride this year.
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