Another Weekend Big Soaker Coming To Vermont/New England Stick Season To Arrive

Still some decent fall colors yesterday in the Champlain
Valley, as seen in this shot in St. Albans, but this 
weekend's storm will mostly introduce 
us to stick season. 

 Early this month, we had a real soaker of a rain storm. The western half of Vermont in particular got it, with two to in some places more than four inches of rain.  

We have that soaker's kid sister coming up this weekend. Though rainfall won't be quite as much as the earlier storm, the 1.5 to three inches of rain in the forecast between now and Sunday night is pretty impressive.

The bad news is the long duration storm means the weekend will pretty much be a washout. It will rain most of the time, and turn chillier, and windier by Sunday. 

The good news is because it will take a couple days for that rain to accumulate, much of the water will soak into the ground, and the chances of flooding are pretty low. 

This will be a foliage season ender.  It's already way past peak in northern and central Vermont. As of yesterday, there was still some nice late season color in the Champlain Valley and warmer valley floors of southern Vermont. 

But the persistent rain and wind will pretty much introduce us to stick season. After this weekend, there will only be pockets of autumn color left. 

This is also how there could be some localized flood risks. All those fallen leaves get swept down small brooks and streams.  Then they all get stuck on an obstruction, like branches or a culvert. These packs of leaves can become really effective dams, backing up water. Sometimes, they'll let go, causing a bit of a flash flood downstream that can damage driveways and culverts and such.  

If you see leaves forming these dams and threatening culverts, try to break them up if you can do so safely. 

It's a one-two punch, with an initial disturbance coming from the south and a  wet cold front coming in from the west. That will set off today's showers, moving south to north across Vermont today.  The heavier rain today will be in southern Vermont, with lighter, more scattered stuff further north. 

Then a new, secondary coastal storm will get going and become the dominant storm Saturday into Sunday. This one will soak New England, including all of Vermont. 

The bulk of the rain will come down on Saturday. Through Saturday, it will remain mild-ish, but it won't feel that way with all the rain and the damp breezes. After highs in the 60s for most of us today, lows will only go into the 50s tonight, and stay in the upper 50s Saturday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is
predicting more than two inches of rain (orange shading)
in much of Vermont between now and Sunday evening. 

As the storm heads off into Canada Sunday, the rain will become lighter and eventually more showery. But it still looks like a nasty day.  A good day to stay inside and watch NFL football, I guess. 

 It won't be that cold for this time of year, with highs near 50 or just above that.  Such temperatures are only slightly on the cool side for this time of year. 

But those cold rain showers and north winds gusting to more than 20 mph, it will feel rather miserable out there. 

If there's any snow, it will be limited to near the summits of the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains. It also won't amount to much, so don't get your skis or snowboards out just yet. 

Monday still looks brighter, breezy and chilly, with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50.  Monday night, some areas of Vermont will see their first frost and freeze of the season, which is incredibly late.

Some areas, especially in the Champlain Valley might manage to stay above freezing Monday night and Tuesday morning, which will prolong this weird frost-free season longer.