Acapulco Apocalypse: Surprise Category 5 Hurricane Otis Devastates Resort

Extreme destruction in Acapulco from surprise
Category 5 Hurricane Otis. Photo via X
by @mendezraq

 Residents and tourists in Acapulco, Mexico went to bed Tuesday night expecting a strong tropical storm or at worst a minimal Category 1 hurricane. 

By morning, everyone assumed, the city would face scattered tree damage, a few power outages, maybe a couple flooded streets, and trashed awnings and such. 

Instead, Tropical Storm Otis in a flash strengthened to a category 5 monster, with top winds at landfall in Acapulco with winds at around 165 mph. 

This is a worst case scenario for a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible.  It strengthened rapidly, giving no time for residents to prepare. 

Worse, it caught seasoned forecasters by surprise.  Nobody anticipated it would be nearly this bad. And this is the first known case of a Category 5 hurricane directly striking a city with a population of more than 1 million. 

"'It's one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you're expecting it or expecting a strong hurricane, but to have it happen when  you're not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare,' said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, according to the Associated Press.

 The blow was so sudden and so extreme that 24 hours later, we still don't know the extent of damage or the death toll.  Most people just can't get into Acapulco for a look-see or get out yet. 

But social media images and news coming out of Acapulco are grim. 

Many tourists said they feared for their lives as the intense winds dismantled their hotels. 

As the Associated Press describes:

"Jacob Sauczuk was staying with a group of friends at a beachfront hotel when Otis hit. 'We laid down on the floor and some between beds,' Sauczuk said. 'We prayed a lot.'

One of his friends showed reporters photos of the windowless, shattered rooms in the hotel. It looked as if someone had put clothes, beds and furniture in a blender, leaving a shredded mess. He complained that his group was given no warning, no were offered safer shelter by the  hotel."

Probably because the hotel, like everyone else, was caught by utter surprise by this thing.  

We know that there's widespread looting, and many people are trapped amid the chaos. Video emerging from the area show high rise buildings shredded, as if in the midst of a major war. 

This was a colossal miss by hurricane forecasters. As the Washington Post reports:

"On X, formerly Twitter, meteorologists described the forecast as 'an almost incomprehensible miss,' 'a fail of epic proportions' and 'just a catastrophic failure.'"

Part of the problem was Otis strengthened at a pace beyond the imagination of most experienced meteorologists and hurricane experts. 

There's a growing consensus, or at least strong opinion among scientists that climate change is making rapid hurricane intensification more likely, and is also making hurricanes harder to predict. 

Says the Washington Post:

"Otis careened from a tropical storm to Category 5 strength in 13 hours, and its peak winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours. That's around a threshold that (MIT hurricane scientist Kerry)  Emanuel wrote was 'essentially nonexistent in the late twentieth-century climate' but increasingly probable in the current warming climate." 

This tragedy isn't just an Acapulco problem. Scientists have been saying in recent years that typhoons and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean have shown a trend toward rapid intensification due to climate change. 

The Washington Post also referred us to a study released just in the past week that shows more conclusively than in the past that Atlantic hurricanes are also exhibiting that rapid intensification trend. 

"'The increased likelihood for hurricanes to transition from weak storms into major hurricanes in 24 hours or less was particularly striking,'" said Andra Garner, who authored the study. 

We are already seeing the effects of rapidly growing hurricanes surprising residents as they explode in strength just before landfall.  Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle did that in 2018, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 did the same in Texas, as did Hurricane Ian in Florida last year. 

When hurricanes rapidly intensify just before landfall, they catch people off guard, as what happened in Acapulco. That puts people in added danger when they're surprised by much stronger winds and much higher storm surges. 

 Hurricanes thrive on very warm ocean water. The warmer the water the better, at least from the perspective of a hurricane.  Climate change has helped send ocean water in hurricane development zones to record high levels recently. 

Water temperatures off of Acapulco were at an extremely toasty 88 degrees. Expected upper level winds which would have slowed the strengthening of Otis failed to materialize, so the die was cast. 

By the way, we in Vermont are not immune from potential harm from these super hurricanes.  A stronger hurricane in general won't weaken as fast as a small weak system once in makes landfall. So that increases the chances that a strong hurricane striking New England could increase the danger and damage here in the Green Mountain State.

Acapulco isn't dominating the headlines yet, because we don't know the extent of the damage or casualties. But I'm very worried about it.