Friday Evening Vermont Update: Unexpected Champlain Valley Snow Blitz Ending

 Um, happy spring?

Road conditions and visibility were horrible on
Route 15 in Colchester, and in the rest of the 
Champlain Valley this afternoon

Vermont and New York's Champlain Valley got a traffic-snarling dump of snow today, as many of you have already figured out. 

Spring arrived at 10:46 this morning and it started snowing literally minutes after that. 

As I noted this morning, the Champlain Valley was going to be the wildcard with this brief but pretty intense storm. 

The hope was we'd get a fair amount of rain in addition to some slush coming out of the sky But temperatures ended up just a little cooler than everybody expected.

So, it really puked snow for awhile. Visibility was down to almost zero at times during the peak of the snow this afternoon.  

Burlington got 4.9 inches of snow, most of it in just three hours.  That was actually a record snowfall for today's date. The old record was 3.4 inches in 1951. As of early this morning, Burlington was only forecast to receive an inch of snow today. Oops. 

Although mostly snow was expected in northern Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains, the snow fell with such vengeance that there was trouble there, too.

A partial list of road closures because of today's snow include Route 74 in Cornwall, Route 100B in Moretown, Route 302 in Orange and Route 114 in East Burke. 

Back in the Champlain Valley, traffic slowed to a crawl. And backed up epically in some places. 

The 4.9 inches that Burlington got might not be the final total, as it was still snowing lightly when that accumulation was announced. 

The good news is that this blast of snow is pretty much done. The snow was leaving northern Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. and we have only flurries to look forward to tonight.  

Road conditions in the Champlain Valley were rapidly improving. Secondary roads were slushy for the most part as of 5 p.m. Interstate 89, which was a snow covered mess most of the afternoon, was pretty much just wet by 5 p.m. in the Champlain Valley. It helped that it got a little above freezing late this afternoon and this evening after the snow tapered off. 

Do be careful overnight and early Saturday, though. All that slush and water will refreeze, especially on untreated surfaces

Precipitation will keep going at a good rate further into the evening in southern Vermont, but most of that was falling as rain, as expected. 

Clouds will start to break up tomorrow morning and we'll get some sun at least some of the time.

And yes, we're at risk still of another storm Sunday that has a good chance of giving at least part of Vermont more snow. I'll have much more on that forecast today, along with news on continued fairly chilly and sometimes potentially snowy weather again in the upcoming week. 

Impressive Lake Champlain Effect Snowstorm In Small Area Sunday, More Active Weather Area-Wide This Week

National Weather Service snow prediction map taking us
through a small 1 to 3 inch snowfall later today combined
with a slightly larger but not huge storm Tuesday night.
Some mix is possible toward the end of the
second storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read.

A surprise snowstorm blanketed a small area near the southern end of Lake Champlain Sunday. 

It was one of the most impressive lake effect snowfalls off of Lake Champlain I've ever seen.

Most of the snow fell on the New York side of the lake, but some of it clipped the immediate lakeshore on the Vermont side.

Snowfall totals included 9 inches in Port Henry, New York, 7 inches in Willsboro and Crown Point, and 6 inches in Mineville and Moriah Center, New York and Chimney Point in West Addison, Vermont. 

Light winds, just east of due north, flowed down the length of Lake Champlain all day. The direction of the wind aimed the snow at the southern end of the lake on the New York side, but also clipped the point of land that juts into the lake at West Addison, Vermont.

Since the winds weren't very strong, they had plenty of time to gather moisture off unfrozen sections of the lake.  The lake narrows as you head south and hills on either side of the lake become closer together. That, and some light west winds coming over the Adirondacks, helped the air flow converge, or squeeze together. 

When that happens, the air has nowhere to go but up. Rising air cools, and that makes the moisture in the air condense. That condensed moisture fell as snow.  It was a fluffy stuff, so it was able to accumulate pretty deeply. 

WHAT'S NEXT

The big picture is all of us, not just a small piece of the southern Champlain Valley are going to get some snow this week. The bad news is we're going to get some other stuff, too. We have three or four quick storms to talk about. None of them are huge, but each will affect your life to some degree. 

Storm #1

After a morning that brought us temperatures near or below for, it's clouding up pretty fast. A tiny storm is going to go right over the top of us this afternoon and night. Since the system is so small, this will be a quickie. It'll start snowing by around mid afternoon and finish up before midnight.  I'm calling this "Storm #1 but that's being generous. It's a minor thing. 

Most of us should get between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow, with maybe a little less in the Northeast Kingdom, where the air might be a little drier. It'll stay cold with this little event. High temperatures much like yesterday, will stay in the teens. 

Today's snow, although not amounting to much, should be enough to make the drive home from work this afternoon and evening a little slick and annoying. Plan on taking it slow. 

Tomorrow, ahead of the next storm, will feel like a glorious heat wave. Highs should soar all the way to near 30, which is close to normal for this time of year. 

The next storm hits tomorrow night. It will be a little bigger than today's squirt of snow, but it won't be enormous. 

It'll come out of the southeastern Great Lakes tomorrow evening and head toward northern Vermont, where it will begin to fade. A new storm will form near Maine and become the predominate one. 

How and when this little transfer of power from the original storm to the new one in Maine will determine how much of this will be snow and how much will be a mix.

As it stands now, the transfer will keep us in Vermont with mostly snow. Especially north. Current projections have us getting two to six inches of snow, with some mixed precipitation toward the end of the storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Southern Vermont should get less snow, maybe one to two inches out of this storm, and more freezing rain and sleet than the north. This will mess up the roads, but be not nearly enough to wreck trees and power lines like the last bout of freezing rain on December 29 did.

#Storms #3 and #4

For some of us, our well advertised January thaw wills start marginally on Wednesday, as highs get into the mid 30s. Thursday will be mild and quiet, with highs in the 35 to 42 degree range. 

Then we get the next system. I'm calling this batch Storm #3 and Storm #4 because current projections have it coming in two waves. At least some computer models have one storm going by to our west Friday and another close on its heels Saturday. 

Since both storms will go by to our west, these storms will be almost exclusively rain. At this point, I don't think either of these systems will produce enough rain and thawing to create a flood concern. But we'll keep an eye on these as they get closer nevertheless. 

Starting next Sunday night and Monday , we will get back to our regularly scheduled winter. At first, the  the cold won't be too intense. It'll basically be about average early next week. But signs point to gradually deepening cold as we head further into the month.  

Northwest Vermont Slammed By Doozy Of Surprise Snow

Aftermath of the 8.6 inches of snow that fell
on St Albans, Vermont last night. The surprisingly
heavy storm in northwest Vermont last
evening turned into a roadway nightmare
for thousands during the evening commute

Sure, snow was forecast in northwest Vermont, but not like this! 

What had 24 hours earlier been billed as an expected one to three inch Monday evening snowfall turned into a commuter nightmare as a burst of snow lasting just a few hours dumped nearly nine inches of snow on parts of northwest Vermont. 

The snowfall turned into a roadway nightmare as people were stranded on highways sometimes for hours. Crashes were rife. A snowplow was even reportedly off the road and in a ditch near St. Albans.

The road I live on  the steep hills of Route 36 in St. Albans -  was closed due to snow for the first time I can remember. It's been closed before due to fallen trees and car crashes, but not snow as far as I can remember, anyway. 

The St. Albans area appears to be the epicenter of this big snow. I measured 8.6 inches of new snow, which is pretty incredible since I'd only been expecting about two inches as of yesterday morning. Swanton and East Enosburg both reported 8.8 inches.  South Hero had 8.5 inches.  

I'm guessing I might see reports of even deeper snow than that once all reports are in. 

Burlington clocked in with 4.8 inches of snow. That surprisingly wasn't the snowiest November 10 on record. The city had 5.3 inches on that date in 1990. That 1990 storm was huge in Vermont, dumping 2.4 inches of rain and melted snow on Burlington. That 1990 storm also deposited more than two feet of snow on some high elevations.

The snow is not quite over, but rest assured we're not going to get two more feet of it. More on the forecast in a bit, but first, how did last night's mess happen?

CONSPIRACY OF SNOW

Everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong with Monday's snow. 

To begin with, the first snow of the season, no matter how light and how well predicted, always catches people off guard. The timing of the snow was horrendous, right at the evening rush hour.   

Monday's snow was unexpectedly heavy, so it took people by surprise. By Sunday night, there were hints that Champlain Valley could be the focus of a little extra snow, but at that time, meteorologists thought it would only be a couple inches.

That forecast held Monday morning.  The National Weather Service again said the focus of late afternoon and evening snow would be Champlain Valley. But the morning forecast called for about two inches of snow for St. Albans, and about an inch in Burlington. 

With that, people set off for work, not especially troubled by their expected commute home.  An inch or two of snow is not that big a deal, right?

It probably didn't even cross some people's minds that they should try to work from home, if possible. I also imagine some state and municipal snowplows and trucks weren't fully geared up for winter yet. 

By about noon, the National Weather Service realized that the snow was going to be tougher than they thought.  They issued a winter weather advisory for northwest Vermont, with forecast totals of two to five inches. The advisory warned of difficult driving at around the evening rush hour. 

The snow blasted in abruptly, on schedule. It started as light rain and drizzle shortly before 4 p.m. (It was freezing drizzle here in St. Albans). Then it quickly flipped to wet snow and by 5 p.m. it was coming down hard. The rather heavy snow continued well into the evening. 

Wet snow is terrible on the roads. The slush packs down into ice beneath the weight of car and truck tires. It was rush hour, so everyone, well, rushed out of work to get home before things got too bad.

But it was too late. Cars slid off roads or into each other everywhere. In many places, vehicles couldn't make it up even modest hills. Roads and highways turned into parking lots. Parts of Interstate 89 between Burlington and Swanton were a parking lot. Plow truck drivers scrambled, but couldn't fight their way through the gridlock.   

It was easily one of the worst travel messes I can remember. I'm so glad I got home at around 3 p.m. yesterday, when the freezing drizzle was just starting. 

To make matters even worse, nearly 2,100 homes and businesses lost electricity at times Monday evening. 

Meanwhile, rain lasted longer in eastern Vermont, and only changed to snow toward the end of the storm. Central Vermont, in places like Worcester, Barre and Elmore only received about an inch and a half of snow. 

The Connecticut Valley in southeastern Vermont got nothing.  In southwest Vermont, traffic camera images from around Rutland and Bennington makes it appear they got around an inch of snow.  

TODAY

Predicted snowfall this morning through Friday morning.
Not much additional in the valleys, but the northern
Green Mountain summits could see as much as
 a foot of snow over the next several days. 

Well, we made it through our first big snow nightmare of the season. The good news is we're not getting another mega snow in the near future. The bad new is it's going to keep snowing in much of Vermont. 

In fact, in the higher elevations especially, it will snow off and on pretty much all week. 

Roadways are much better this morning, but there are still some slick spots. Especially once you get off the main highways. Additional snow showers will also make things tricky at times. 

Today will be blustery and cold with snow showers. It looks like St. Albans and much of the rest of Franklin County can expect another one to three inches of snow today through tonight. It won't come down nearly as hard as it did last evening. 

Highs today still look like they'll stay near or below freezing in much of northern Vermont, while warmest areas in southern Vermont sneak into the mid-30s. 

It'll turn a little warmer, if you can call it that, tomorrow and Thursday, so as weather disturbances keep coming through, the snow showers will change to rain showers in the low and some mid elevations. The mountains will keep getting snow. 

The valleys should get more snow showers as it gets colder again Thursday night, but again, accumulations will be light. At least in the low elevations.  

By Friday morning, Green Mountain summits in northern and central Vermont should receive six or more inches of additional snow. I wouldn't be surprised if places like Jay Peak clock in with an additional foot. 

There's also no rest for the pre-winter weary. A storm could bring some mixed precipitation again toward next Sunday. 

Weekend Vermont Forecast Has Gotten More Complicated, With Downpours, Severe Weather Threat Sunday

A perfect summer day Friday at Taylor Park in downtown
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for the rest of this
weekend has suddenly gotten more complicated. 

 This was supposed to be a nice weekend in here in Vermont.  A couple days ago, we thought there might be a couple light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's it. Otherwise, it would be mostly just sunshine and low humidity.  

Well, as everything goes these days, Ma Nature has thrown in a surprise. The weather forecast has suddenly gotten more complicated. And much wetter.  

Suddenly, our oversight tonight and Sunday will feature unexpectedly high humidity, the risk of severe storms in some areas and locally heavy downpours. 

This isn't going to be an end of the world type storm. Most places will just see rain and thunder. But we're now virtually guaranteed to break the record for the most consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Burlington needs at least a trace of rain by midnight Sunday to break that record. Current forecasts call for roughly a half inch of rain there late tonight and Sunday. 

TODAY  

Today is still going to be gorgeous Vermont summer day, with sunshine and low humidity and warm temperatures rising to the low 80s. I would rate today just a mini-step down from Friday, which I will regard as the most perfect summer day we've had this year.

Afternoon temperatures Friday were comfortably warm in the 70s.  The sky was a beautiful deep blue, without a hint of that annoying wildfire smoke we keep getting. That sky was decorated by puffy clouds. The hills and mountains gleamed their rich summer green at us, and a breeze kept the summer flowers dancing in the gardens.

Today will be pretty much the same, except it will be a touch warmer. And there might be some increasing clouds later in the afternoon and into the evening, but there's no worries about rain.

It'll be a perfect day to get outside and enjoy a Green Mountain summer. Especially since tomorrow is now looking problematic. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

An approaching cold front now appears likely to grab some higher humidity from the south. A conglomeration of weather disturbance will come in from the west at the same time, adding some lift and energy to the atmosphere. 

That's a recipe for rain and thunderstorms.  That there will be a complicated mix of very small bits and details in this system adds some questions to the forecast. It's unclear how extensive the rain and thunderstorms will become, but now we know it'll definitely rain. And many of us will hear thunder. 

 The first band of showers will come through after midnight to around or just after dawn.  Some of the rain could contain heavy downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

On Sunday, you'll notice a return of high humidity Sunday, at least for awhile, although actually temperatures won't get all that warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s south.

The door is open for possible severe storms in much of New England.

That severe risk will run from southern Vermont, along and south of Route 4, and on into the rest of southern New England, and most of  southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.   

Straight line winds and microbursts are the main threat.  As usual, only a few places in the risk zone would actually see a severe storm. Most places won't be so bad.

How many severe storms form depends a lot on how much sun comes out behind the initial band of storms early Sunday and how quickly a sharp cold front comes in from the northwest. 

Northern areas look to be too far removed from the best instability, so they should be safe from severe weather  Plus, a sharp cold front will hit northern areas first, putting an end to the rains by afternoon.  In fact, if northern Vermont is lucky, they could see a sharp drop in humidity and clearing skies by mid to late afternoon. It all depends on the timing of everything. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center also has a marginal, low level risk of flash flooding from this, but most meteorologists think we won't 'see enough rain to create trouble.  There will be some torrential downpours, but the storms will be moving along too fast to dump excessive amounts of rain in any one spot. 

A few places could see an inch or more of rain out of this,  but most of us will see something in the neighborhood of a half inch. Note that since the ingredients to this system are complicated, results may vary. We could still see another surprise or two out of this. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

This still looks like it's shaping up to be at least one of the coolest stretches of July weather we've seen in several years. 

You'll wake up to a cool Monday morning, then highs will only get to the low 70s at best in many locations. Some northern areas might not get out of the 60s. All that is a good ten degrees cooler than  normal for this time of year. 

Monday night will get into the 40s in many areas, but probably stay in the low 50s in warmer valleys. The cool high pressure system should stall briefly near us, keeping us sunny, dry and relatively cool on Tuesday. (Highs in the 70s)

We'll finally see a return southerly air flow starting Wednesday, so it should turn noticeably warmer and somewhat more humid for the end of the week.  At this point, it doesn't look like it'll get into the 90s again, but, as usual, no guarantees!  

Say It Ain't Snow! Parts Of Vermont To Be Dusted With It Sunday, Believe It Or Not!

Yep! We have to do another snow prediction map from
the National Weather Service. This is for tomorrow.
Although accumulations should be limited to the
mountains snowflakes could reach valley floors 

 It might be very hard to believe, given the rainy, sort of warmish and muggy day we had here in Vermont on our Saturday, but a (hopefully!) last dash of winter weather (Read: Snow) is coming to parts of the Green Mountain State on Sunday. 

Only the high elevations will see any real accumulation, but some snowflakes could easily make it down to valley floors, especially along and north of Route 2.  

Elevations about 1,000 feet might well see some brief slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces.

This latest forecast update hints at more snow that was expected in earlier predications. 

It just goes to show how capricious a Vermont spring can be. 

The culprit is the same storm we dealt with today. We were on the eastern, warm side of the storm Saturday,  so we had that mild spring rains that helped boost all our spring green beauty out there. 

The storm's cold front was coming in late this afternoon and this evening, and that will quickly change the character of the air. As of 5 p.m., it was 64 degrees in Burlington with a dew point of 61, which is really the most humid it's been so far this spring.  

Not far to the west, in northwestern New York, it was already in the low 40s as of 5 p.m. That's the first hint that Sunday is going to be a March-like throwback to us Vermonters.

SUNDAY

Our storm will slow down temporarily  as it reaches Maine and the far southeast corner of Quebec by tomorrow. 

The storm will push a slug of moisture down from the north, making showers blossom and increase in intensity tomorrow morning. That will continue into the afternoon. 

This system is also carrying a pocket of very cold air with it, especially aloft.  That'll ensure that it snows on Sunday at elevations about 2,500 feet. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the summits of mountains like Jay Peak, Mount Mansfield and Camels Hump see three or four inches out of this.

The real interesting part on Sunday will be when heavier showers pass through a particular location. Those heavier showers will drag down some of the cold air aloft, changing the rain to snow when the precipitation is heavy. 

That's most likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.  But I think that some snowflakes might make it down as low as the northern Champlain Valley. 

These kinds of storm scenarios are tricky. In the past, I've been surprised by a dusting to an inch of snow in this kind of weather situation even in low elevations. You never know.

SMALL SIZED COLD SNAP

The pocket to frigid air with this storm system is very small in size.  As the storm slowly moves east, the skies will clear in northern New York, and warmer air will move in to those places. So Sunday afternoon, we'll have the opposite situation we had late this afternoon

While it will be snowing in Vermont, temperatures could rise to close to 60 in northwestern New York. 

The nasty cold pocket of air associated with our storm will continue moving east. That'll take the rain and snow with it and out of Vermont toward the end of Sunday. 

If clearing starts early enough in the evening, the temperature could spike up to the low to mid 50s in western Vermont in the evening, after spending the midday in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

You'd think that after such a cold Sunday, we'd have a nasty freeze Sunday night. But the warm air will continue to flood in, so most of us will stay above freezing overnight Sunday. Parts of eastern Vermont might get near or a little below freezing,  but that's not so odd for this time of year.

BIG WARMUP

By Monday, all will be forgotten. Under sunny skies, temperatures will soar back up into the 60s, maybe near 70 in some of the banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley and in in far southwest and southeast Vermont. That's all actually is a smidge warmer than normal for late April. 

On Tuesday, it's looking like we might have the warmest day of the year so far.  Many of us will get well into the 70s, and a few towns could get to 80 if the sun stays out long enough. 

A storm that is expected to create a nasty severe weather and tornado outbreak in the Midwest Monday will arrive in the form of a cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday night. 

This system might still have enough oomph to set off some thunderstorms in Vermont Tuesday night. It's very iffy, but there's a chance that a couple of the storms might actually turn out to be on the strong side.

But otherwise, don't worry about that next cold front. Instead of bringing snow, it should bring a seasonable cool, fresh spring day for us on Wednesday 

A Surprise Overnight Heat Wave In Vermont, Late Night Record Highs

It's becoming  weird late December tradition around my
St. Albans, Vermont house. Record warmth has 
caused these daffodil shoots to sprout out of season
Same thing happened in recent Decembers. 

 We knew it would get warm here in Vermont overnight and this morning, but what happened is kind of ridiculous. 

Rather than reach the low 50s by this morning, Burlington, Vermont's temperature rocketed upward last evening, peaking at 61 degrees at around 11 p.m. That was good enough for a record high for the date, the old one being 58 degrees in 1984.

As you well know, 11 p.m. is an odd time of day to see a record high.  

Burlington was probably the warmest place around, because winds from the southeast had some compressional warming as gusts flowed down the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Still, it did manage to reach 58 degrees in Bennington, 55 in Rutland, and 57 in Plattsburgh, New York.

Place east of the Green Mountains have mostly so far missed out on the warmth.  The mildest it got in Springfield so far is 48 degrees. St. Johnsbury has thus far only managed to get as mild as 41 degrees. 

As of early this morning, it look like Burlington at least tied the record high for today's date of 58 degrees.  We'll see how that sugars out.

We've been re-writing the record books for late December in recent years. In 2015, it was 68 degrees in Burlington on Christmas Eve, the hottest December temperature on record. Our hottest Christmas was in 2020, with a temperature of 65 degrees. Just two years ago, in 2022, the record high that was probably tied today was set. 

COOLING TREND

I hope you got outside to enjoy Vermont's tropical warmth early today as you won't see temperatures like this again for a long time. 

Temperatures will gradually cool today behind a cold front that was on our doorstep as of 8 a.m.  It'll remain mild all day, but temperatures will fall through the 50s and 40s and into the 30s by sunset late this afternoon.

We could even see a snow shower or two this evening. It is winter, after all, though it didn't feel like it the morning.

New Year's Eve looks quiet and mild for the season, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Pretty warm, still for this time of year, and made all the better by some expected glimpses of sun, especially in the first part of the day. 

We're still looking at a new storm for New Year's Eve and Day.  It'll be a frustrating storm for snow lovers, because its path would normally be perfect for laying down a nice Vermont snowpack to replace what we lost in the heat wave we just had. This system will basically follow a path from New York City to Boston to Portland, Maine on New Year's Day. 

But alas, there won't be enough cold air around, so deeper valleys still look like they'll have a cold rain for most of the storm.  Higher elevations have a better chance of seeing some snow. 

Once the storm gets past us, it'll help introduce a long period - probably lasting at least two weeks - of cold air.  That storm will probably stall for a few days in eastern Canada, dumping more snow on Vermont mountains, but leaving valleys with little new snow. 

So expect a thin snow cover in the valleys for at least the first few days of the upcoming long January cold spell.  High elevations should get a decent share of their snowpack back. 

 Subsequent storms might come along to allow the valleys to join the January snow party, but it's too soon to tell how that will play out. 

Vermont Lake Effect Snow Develops In Champlain Valley; Up to 6 Inches Snow Possible

National Weather Service radar this morning showed
two lake effect snow bands coming off of Lake 
Champlain. One was hitting an area in and around
Colchester and Milton, while another stronger one
was in southern Chittenden County and 
in Addison County. 

 As mentioned in a post earlier today, it's still snowing a little across Vermont. 

But in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, especially in Addison County and the southern half of Chittenden County, something of a lake effect snowstorm has blossomed this morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued or those two counties. 

Areas along the Route 7 corridor from near the shores of the lake to the western slopes of the Green Mountains in this area can expect a storm total of up to six inches of snow.

There was actually two  snow bands coming off Lake Champlain this morning. One, was coming in from east of Grand Isle into Milton, Colchester and Burlington  

The second, stronger band was focusing on places like Charlotte, Shelburne and Ferrisburgh and nearby areas. 

So far 5.7 inches of snow had fallen at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,  as of mid-morning and I'd say half or more of that was lake effect. 

These  pales in comparison to some of those epic storms you see off the Great Lakes. But it does show Lake Champlain is capable of creating its own little snowstorms.  Especially after a warm autumn when the contrast between lake and water temperature is great, and there's no ice on the lake.

Drier air moving in this afternoon should weaken and eventually end these snow bands. 

Resilient Hurricane Rafael Continues To Surprise Forecasters, But No Further Threat To People

Hurricane Rafael stayed surprisingly strong over
the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and last night,
as you can tell by this visible satellite image of 
the storm taken at around sunset Thursday. 

 Contradicting all forecasts, Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico continued to power up yesterday and at least part of last night, with highest sustained winds of 120 mph. 

That's the most powerful Rafael has been since it first ramped up several days ago. 

A weakening trend should have started by now, given dry air over the Gulf and what had been expected to be increasing upper level winds that would want to tear a hurricane apart  But like so many hurricanes this year, Rafael is over-performing.

The upper level winds haven't materialized quite yet, and the water Rafael is moving over is quite warm, so the storm has enough nourishment to preserve its strength for now. 

This is only the third time on record that a hurricane of at least Category 2 strength or more has been in the Gulf of Mexico during November. 

Unlike other powerful hurricanes that emerged from the Gulf of Mexico this year - Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton - Hurricane Rafael doesn't look like it will cause a lot more damage in the United States, if any. 

Moisture streaming north from Rafael did help cause a rather destructive flood in parts of Georgia and South Carolina this week. Up to 15 inches of rain fell on central South Carolina, prompting extensive flooding, especially in and around Orangeburg. 

Those upper level winds and dry air should finally team up starting tonight to begin slowly dismantling Hurricane Rafael. It will move westward through the central Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, then sort of start meandering offshore as it gradually fades. 

It might never come ashore anywhere again. Still, since this hurricane - and several others this year - have been so surprising, we can't take our eye off Rafael, just in case.

Most of the havoc created by Rafael occurred when it past over the western side of Cuba Wednesday. It caused the kind of flooding and building damage you'd expect from a Category 3 hurricane.

Worse, as you might have seen in the news, Cuba's power grid is unstable, to put it mildly. They had two nationwide power failures this autumn already. Rafael caused a third collapse of the nation's power grid, putting the entire island in darkness. That includes the central and eastern part of Cuba, which suffered no direct effects from Rafael.

The Washington Post tells us the power is back on in eastern Cuba, but was still out at last report in the west, including in the Capital Havana. 

Up on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the only hazards expected from Rafael so far are dangerous rip tides and possibly some minor coastal flooding. 

Teeny Tiny Hurricane Oscar Is The Weirdest And Most Surprising Hurricane Of The Year

Visible satellite view of itty-bitty Hurricane Oscar
approaching the northeastern coast of 
Cuba Sunday morning.

 Meteorologists are still agog over Hurricane Oscar, which abruptly formed Saturday southeast of the Bahamas.  

The storm is extremely weird because nobody even expected it to form. And when it did, it turned out to be one of the tiniest hurricanes on record. 

THE SURPRISE

What would become Hurricane Oscar was a struggling disturbance that spent several days crossing the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa to a spot southeast of the Bahamas Saturday morning. 

Just before dawn Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a mere 10 percent chance of becoming a weak tropical depression or storm.

By late morning, it had turned into a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center and other experts are remarkably good at sniffing out days in advance when a disturbance would turn into a hurricane, so this was a stunning miss. 

Just proves that not everything about the atmosphere is completely understood just yet.

TINY OSCAR

Once Oscar formed it proved to be remarkably tiny. 

Even though top winds were 85 mph late Saturday afternoon, hurricane force winds extended out only five miles from the eye at the center of the storm.  Tropical storm force winds only went out 40 miles from the center. 

The only example people could find of a smaller tropical system was Tropical Storm Marco in October, 2008, which never reached hurricane status. Its-bitsy Marco's tropical storm force winds only extended out 11.5 miles from its center when it was off the Mexican coast. 

For perspective, if the eye of Hurricane Oscar was over Waterfront Park in Burlington on the shores of Lake Champlain last evening, hurricane force winds would extend out only as far as a little east of the Patrick Leahy International Airport in South Burlington. Tropical storm force winds would only extend to a little south of Middlebury, and folks in Rutland would wonder what all the fuss was about.  

Hurricane Oscar was so diminutive that noted hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman dubbed the storm a "cutiecane."

Morgerman said he's not chasing this one in large part because of its minuscule size. Really small hurricanes are prone to rapid intensity changes. They can blow up fast, like it did Saturday, but they can also fall apart much more rapidly than normal sized hurricanes. 

Early this morning, Hurricane Oscar had not grown any larger than it was Saturday, and made a brief landfall on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas with top winds of 80 mph. Forecasters say it should remain a hurricane as it reaches the coast of northeastern Cuba later today.

The rough terrain of that section of Cuba should really rough little Oscar up, and it should weaken.  Forecasters think it will then turn north, then northeast and push through the Bahamas as a tropical storm tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Of course, that forecast is super iffy, given its minuscule size. Plus, hostile upper level winds might well develop, which tend to quickly tear small tropical systems apart. Teeny-weeny Oscar might not survive Cuba at all.

Oscar will not threaten the United States. There are also no signs of any new tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean after Oscar for at least a week.

 Little Hurricane Oscar is also notable because it was part of a weirdly busy stretch of activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach noted Oscar was the eighth named Atlantic storm to form after September 24.  

That's the most tropical storms and hurricanes on record to form in the Atlantic Ocean between September 24 and October 19. 

Some Surprise Vermont Snows, With More On The Way

 

Snow fell all day Monday in St. Albans, Vermont but
didn't accumulate because of a high March sun angle,
and temperatures just above freezing. However.....

UPDATE

Noon Tuesday

Snowfall reports came in since I wrote this early this morning.  Snow was definitely more widespread and heavier than many expected. 

I added to this post the map the National Weather Service in South Burlington released showing snowfall totals. You can see it further down in this.

Several places along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains had around six inches of snow. 

Even areas a little bit away from the mountains had three or four inches. 

The biggest winner was Underhill, with 7.6 inches. Areas right near Lake Champlain, the Connecticut Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom missed out. The NWS office in South Burlington only had 0.6 inches, for instance. 

Melt the snow down and you get a tenth of an inch or less of rain equivalent away from the mountains and western slopes. Areas near the Green Mountain had a respectable third to more than a half inch oc rain equivalent. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A few areas of Vermont awoke to some surprising amounts of snow this  morning. 

Up here in St. Albans, I measured 3.5 inches of new snow. This is on cold surfaces.  The lawn has somewhat less snow due to warm ground melting this from beneath. 

We saw a real March phenomenon, too, as a high sun angle and just a general trend toward spring warming influenced how much snow actually accumulated.

It snowed all day Monday here in St. Albans, and along and west of the Green Mountains.  In relatively low elevations like where I live, there was no accumulation during the day despite hours of steady snowfall. It was basically white rain coming down. 

Even though it was overcast, some heat from the sun penetrated the clouds. That also helped temperatures hold just above freezing. Had it been January with the same snowfall, I

However, at night, the snow kept going and was able to
accumulate, leaving behind 3.5 inches in St. Albans,
at least in the eastern part of town away from Lake Champlain.

Toward dusk, the snow started to accumulate, and really started to pile up after dark. That lead to our more than three inches of snow.  I'm sure a few places in the northern and central Green Mountains had six inches or more.  

I notice the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield went from 62 inches Sunday to 68 inches by 5 p.m. Monday. And it surely snowed some more overnight way up there on Vermont's rooftop. 

I'm sure, though, that if this snow had come in January, I'd be shoveling at least six inches of new snow out of my St. Albans driveway.    

MUCH MORE SNOW COMING?

In the lower elevations, that March regime will melt at least some of the snow today in areas where it did accumulate, despite temperatures that will probably hold in the 30s. Today might be the first cooler than average day this month. The rest of the week looks to be mostly on the chilly side for this time of year too.

The last of the snow showers from overnight should depart, but more is coming. 

Map of snowfall from Monday and last night in Vermont
Widespread three to six inches across northern parts
of the state, which was more than forecast. 

The next system from the west will blow in tonight and tomorrow, spreading snow, and perhaps some cold raindrops mixed in at lower elevations Wednesday. 

This is another case of the mountains getting snow showered to death. It'll be another case of maybe an inch or two of new snow in most valleys, with some low lands getting nothing. 

But this little storm Wednesday and Wednesday night could easily dump another six inches of snow on Vermont's mountain summits and some ski areas.

Thursday will be by far the coldest day since February 29, with highs staying below freezing all day, except maybe in the warmest valleys of southern Vermont. 

This cold snap could set us up for a pretty good snowstorm toward Saturday.  

Maybe. Perhaps. Maybe not. Hard to tell.

Here's why:

Some computer models are generating a pretty good nor'easter whose path would put Vermont in the sweet spot for quite a lot of snow on Saturday. 

We'd get six or more inches of wet snow out of that scenario.

However, those computer models are having a feisty fight among themselves as to what's really going to happen. While some of those models give us a snowstorm, others say this will be one big nothing burger.

That  camp says it will be a weak storm that goes by too far to the east of Vermont to give us any real trouble. Others in this computer model fight club say it will be a fairly substantial storm, but it would also be too far east of Vermont to worry that much about. Then there's a small group that says it will be mostly a cold rain, not snow. A few models even say "Storm? What storm?"

For now, we'll just let those meteorological computer battles rage until they come up with some kind of truce or peace agreement in a couple of days. 

Surprise! Decent Vermont Snowfall Now In the Cards For Tuesday

Unlike most storms, the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington is predicting pretty uniform snow
totals Tuesday in Vermont. If this forecast pans out,
almost all of us will see somewhere between four
and six inches of fresh powder on Tuesday.

 Well, that escalated today!

A winter weather advisory is now in effect for all of Vermont Tuesday. What had been expected to be a very light snowfall has turned into a decent, moderate sized hit.  

Predicted accumulations are pretty uniform throughout the state with most of us probably in for four to six inches of powder.

A coastal storm that was expected to miss us by a wide margin is now expected to track a little closer to the New England coast, enabling it to join forces with a disturbance coming in from the west. The result?  A not-spectacular snowstorm but decent dump for us. 

It'll be a big help for winter sports in the state. Especially for snowmobiles, snow shoeing and cross country skiing in low elevations that don't have that much snow. 

For a change, the snow is showing no signs that it will want to mix with anything. It'll just be a powdery snow all day Tuesday, as temperatures hold in the 20s. 

It'll probably start snowing lightly in Vermont during the early to mid morning, and peak in the afternoon with a period of moderate snow. 

Road conditions won't be great. There should be a little snow on the roads for the morning commute and even more in the evening. 

There won't be a lot of wind with this thing, and as I said, the snow will be powdery. That means we don't have to worry about another round of power outages this time. 

Unlike the pleasant snowstorm we had on January 7, this snow will stick around for a little while anyway. The January 7 snow melted or got crushed into miserable slush and ice on January 10 when we got hit by the first of two big, destructive windstorms.

This time, it will stay cold for days. In fact, Friday and Saturday still look very cold. By very cold I mean many of us will be below zero at night, highs will only be in the single numbers and teens, and wind chills could be well below zero.   

This being the winter of 2023-24 the delightful new snow cover won't last forever. Longer range forecasts are trending stronger and stronger toward another extended heat wave that would probably start about a week from tomorrow.   

By the way, there's always last minute adjustments to every storm, so I'm sure there will be changes to the forecast when we wake up tomorrow morning. 

Botched Vermont Forecast: "Rain Storm" Turn Into Snowy Mess

 Boy, forecasters got this storm wrong. That "rain" out there in Vermont this morning is looking awfully white. 

Route 100 near Warren, Vermont
overnight. Photo via Facebook by
Enrique Melendez. 

Instead of a mostly rain event, heavy wet snow clogged highways throughout Vermont along with widespread power outages. The commute to work that was supposed to be easy was a mess for many people.  

Now that we woke up unpleasantly surprised, the storm is mostly over. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, when it became apparent that this was a snowy surprise, last night issued a winter weather advisory for northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain. 

In hindsight, it probably should have been a winter storm warning. As of 7 a.m. this morning 34,000 homes and businesses across Vermont had no electricity. This is yet another big hit for the state's electric utilities, who have suffered widespread storm damage with increasing frequency in recent years.

Many roads and highways were closed by fallen trees and power lines and stuck cars. 

 I have no clue whether climate change helped intensify last night's storm, but other storms that have causes widespread power failures in Vermont in the past decade were probably turbo-charged at least a bit by climate change. 

Snowfall totals from overnight are pretty impressive. Especially considering it was a heavy, wet snow that doesn't pile up as readily as powdery stuff. 

We don't have a complete list of totals yet, but I see reports of 9.5 inches in Calais, Duxbury and East Warren; 9.0 inches in Cabot and Standard; 8.0 inches in Waterbury Center and 7.5 inches in Worcester.

Even parts of the Champlain Valley, which were forecast to receive absolutely no snow, got at least a little.  There's a good inch of new snow on the ground here in St. Albans. However, most of the snow in the valley was mixed with a drenching rain. Places around Burlington and right near the lake got little or no snow, while the eastern Champlain Valley near the foothills of the Green Mountains got buried. 

The only bright spot to this episode is that Vermont ski areas got an unexpected but welcome dump of snow. 

WHAT WENT WRONG?

This was one of the most spectacularly wrongly forecast storm in Vermont I can remember in recent memory. And wrong with consequences. The expectation of  harmless, moderate cold rain, mixed with a little snow at mid and high elevations, turned into a dangerous winter storm. (At least in terms of power outages, tree damage and horrible road conditions).

The storm was an example of when temperatures are marginal, anything can happen. Forecasters believed temperatures would be just above freezing through most o the storm. The computer models, and meteorologists who examined them, suggested that a few inches of snow would fall on mountain summits. 

Also, areas at and above 1,500 feet would see one to three inches of snow before a likely changeover to rain.  Temperatures were expected to be around 34 degrees or even a tad higher through a thick layer of the atmosphere, from valleys to mountains and even above that. 

However, temperatures stayed just a couple degrees cooler than forecast.  Usually, if a meteorologist predicts an overnight low of 40 degrees and it turns out to be 38 instead, it's still regarded as an accurate forecast. 

But when a storm is ongoing, and the forecast is off by two degrees while readings are close to freezing, you can have real problems, as we did last night. 

Being a Monday morning quarterback, I can now see one clue ahead of the storm that might have let us know it was going to be a snowstorm, not a rain storm. 

In last evening's update, I noted predicted precipitation amounts would be a little higher than previously thought. It turns out that was a trend I'm sure many meteorologists wish they'd latched onto.    

t turns out precipitation rates and amounts were much heavier than forecast. When temperatures are marginal, as they were last night, heavier precipitation can cool the air a little, ensuring it lands on the ground as wet snow instead of rain

A for-example. Burlington was expected to receive the lighter amounts of rain compared to other parts of the state, maybe a third of an inch or so. Instead, rain, mixed with snow at times came down really hard at times, amounting to a storm total of 1.28 inches. A little more than half of that fell in just a two-hour period, which is an impressive precipitation rate for this time of year. 

 Elsewhere in Vermont, rain and melted snow was only a little more than forecast, but it might have been enough to help keep things mostly snow instead of mostly rain. 

Temperatures still remained near 32 or 33 degrees throughout the storm, which created a wet snow that was so destructive to trees and power lines.  And it made the snow that much more difficult to clear away. 

This whole episode is proof that although weather forecasting has gotten better in recent years and decades, we can sometimes really be taken by surprise. 

GOING FORWARD

Since weather forecasts around here are usually quite good, we're writing last night off as a bad moment. What happens next seems to be a little more straight forward.

The heavy precipitation has left Vermont, and we have scattered areas of light rain, snow and drizzle left behind. 

Temperatures in the 35 to 42 degree range late this morning and afternoon will help melt remaining slush on roads. However, temperatures will dip below freezing this evening and overnight. Remaining water on roads and driveways and such will freeze, making for some patchy slick spots tomorrow morning. 

Light snow showers will add to all that. Accumulations will be light, if they happen at all. But those snow showers might add to the overall annoyance. 

The next chance of any real snow or rain will come along Friday or Saturday, but it's too soon to tell whether that will be another nasty storm or just another nothing burger. 

a can't say whether

First Widespread Vermont Snow Wednesday Was "A Very Pretty Snoliage" Surprise

Everybody gets excited about the first snow of the season. 

Snow falls in Burlington Wednesday afternoon. Some trees
still have leaves on them, making for some pretty scenes.

Like on Wednesday, when snow fell across most of Vermont. It didn't amount to much in most places, though a few places in southern Vermont did pick up a surprising amount of snow.   

People were thrilled to go out into the snow when it arrived. Never mind that many of these same people will be cursing the snow by the time March and April roll around. 

The first snow of the season is usually pretty benign, and so it was Wednesday.  Pavement was mostly too warm to freeze amid the snow, so there weren't a lot of traffic problems.

That said, temperatures were below freezing in most of Vermont early this morning, so there's probably some icy patches here and there on the roads. 

We got an added treat with this snow due to the warm autumn we've had. In low elevations, colorful leaves are still clinging to some of the trees. This resulted in a classic "snoliage" day in which the snow dusted orange and yellow and red leaves to make Wednesday a very photogenic day.

Video is below to give examples of how pretty the day was. 

This snow was an over-performer.  We knew a weak weather disturbance was on its way, and we knew it would trigger some scattered snow showers.

However, a  particularly heavy batch of snow went through southern Vermont and western Massachusetts Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Most places down there got just a dusting to an inch, but a few spots were nailed, all things considered. A location near Ludlow saw 5.3 inches of snow. Perennial snowy spot Shrewsbury, Vermont picked up two inches. 

Snow dusted St. Albans, Vermont on Wednesday.

A second batch of somewhat heavier than expected snow hit the Champlain Valley and some other parts of northern Vermont during the early to mid afternoon. 

Although the word "heavy" is an overstatement, since most places in northern Vermont had an inch or less of snow.   North of Burlington, the snow didn't melt immediately, and was still on the ground this morning.

It was quite a pretty drive on the way home from Burlington yesterday afternoon as dark clouds contrasted with the white snow on lingering oak leaves and on the dark green pine trees.  It looks like my place in St. Albans picked up about 0.8 inches of snow. 

There were some climatologically oddities in Wednesday's snow. That Vermont would receive a trace to three inches of snow in early November isn't weird - that's not it. 

The stat that stands out is Burlington. Almost always the first snow of the season there (and pretty much anywhere) is a trace.  A few flurries fall, but nothing sticks, and accumulation is regarded as a trace.

In Burlington, the first snow of the season was actually measurable. True, it was only 0.1 inches which is practically nothing. But the fact that the first flakes of the season actually amounted to something - albeit very minor - is odd.

There's been weirdness in snowfall in the region this season. Montreal had its first measurable snow of the season on Monday. But according to some reports, it was the first time on record the first measurable snow of the season in Montreal came before the first freeze of the season. 

This, of course, was just a foretaste of winter. We're not going to see anymore snow for at least a few days.  It'll be too warm. We do have a risk of showers Saturday through Monday, but it won't rain all of the time. In fact we have a shot at a pretty decent Saturday all in all. 

However, a relatively cold weather pattern looks like it will return next week, bringing us renewed chances of light snows,.

Here's a video of yesterday's pretty snow in Burlington and St Albans, Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Acapulco Apocalypse: Surprise Category 5 Hurricane Otis Devastates Resort

Extreme destruction in Acapulco from surprise
Category 5 Hurricane Otis. Photo via X
by @mendezraq

 Residents and tourists in Acapulco, Mexico went to bed Tuesday night expecting a strong tropical storm or at worst a minimal Category 1 hurricane. 

By morning, everyone assumed, the city would face scattered tree damage, a few power outages, maybe a couple flooded streets, and trashed awnings and such. 

Instead, Tropical Storm Otis in a flash strengthened to a category 5 monster, with top winds at landfall in Acapulco with winds at around 165 mph. 

This is a worst case scenario for a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible.  It strengthened rapidly, giving no time for residents to prepare. 

Worse, it caught seasoned forecasters by surprise.  Nobody anticipated it would be nearly this bad. And this is the first known case of a Category 5 hurricane directly striking a city with a population of more than 1 million. 

"'It's one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you're expecting it or expecting a strong hurricane, but to have it happen when  you're not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare,' said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, according to the Associated Press.

 The blow was so sudden and so extreme that 24 hours later, we still don't know the extent of damage or the death toll.  Most people just can't get into Acapulco for a look-see or get out yet. 

But social media images and news coming out of Acapulco are grim. 

Many tourists said they feared for their lives as the intense winds dismantled their hotels. 

As the Associated Press describes:

"Jacob Sauczuk was staying with a group of friends at a beachfront hotel when Otis hit. 'We laid down on the floor and some between beds,' Sauczuk said. 'We prayed a lot.'

One of his friends showed reporters photos of the windowless, shattered rooms in the hotel. It looked as if someone had put clothes, beds and furniture in a blender, leaving a shredded mess. He complained that his group was given no warning, no were offered safer shelter by the  hotel."

Probably because the hotel, like everyone else, was caught by utter surprise by this thing.  

We know that there's widespread looting, and many people are trapped amid the chaos. Video emerging from the area show high rise buildings shredded, as if in the midst of a major war. 

This was a colossal miss by hurricane forecasters. As the Washington Post reports:

"On X, formerly Twitter, meteorologists described the forecast as 'an almost incomprehensible miss,' 'a fail of epic proportions' and 'just a catastrophic failure.'"

Part of the problem was Otis strengthened at a pace beyond the imagination of most experienced meteorologists and hurricane experts. 

There's a growing consensus, or at least strong opinion among scientists that climate change is making rapid hurricane intensification more likely, and is also making hurricanes harder to predict. 

Says the Washington Post:

"Otis careened from a tropical storm to Category 5 strength in 13 hours, and its peak winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours. That's around a threshold that (MIT hurricane scientist Kerry)  Emanuel wrote was 'essentially nonexistent in the late twentieth-century climate' but increasingly probable in the current warming climate." 

This tragedy isn't just an Acapulco problem. Scientists have been saying in recent years that typhoons and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean have shown a trend toward rapid intensification due to climate change. 

The Washington Post also referred us to a study released just in the past week that shows more conclusively than in the past that Atlantic hurricanes are also exhibiting that rapid intensification trend. 

"'The increased likelihood for hurricanes to transition from weak storms into major hurricanes in 24 hours or less was particularly striking,'" said Andra Garner, who authored the study. 

We are already seeing the effects of rapidly growing hurricanes surprising residents as they explode in strength just before landfall.  Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle did that in 2018, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 did the same in Texas, as did Hurricane Ian in Florida last year. 

When hurricanes rapidly intensify just before landfall, they catch people off guard, as what happened in Acapulco. That puts people in added danger when they're surprised by much stronger winds and much higher storm surges. 

 Hurricanes thrive on very warm ocean water. The warmer the water the better, at least from the perspective of a hurricane.  Climate change has helped send ocean water in hurricane development zones to record high levels recently. 

Water temperatures off of Acapulco were at an extremely toasty 88 degrees. Expected upper level winds which would have slowed the strengthening of Otis failed to materialize, so the die was cast. 

By the way, we in Vermont are not immune from potential harm from these super hurricanes.  A stronger hurricane in general won't weaken as fast as a small weak system once in makes landfall. So that increases the chances that a strong hurricane striking New England could increase the danger and damage here in the Green Mountain State.

Acapulco isn't dominating the headlines yet, because we don't know the extent of the damage or casualties. But I'm very worried about it.  

Once Again, Snow Over-Performs In Parts Of Vermont Again Today

A spring snowfall surprised me in St. Albans, Vermont this
afternoon. As you can see, accumulation wasn't much, but
I'm still hoping this is the last snow until November.

Parts of Vermont once again today got more snow than forecast, but it was a pretty localized event. 

It snowed all afternoon here at my hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont, perched part way up St. Albans Hill at an elevation of about 630 feet above sea level. Light rain showers had been expected here, and that was the state of affairs until shortly before 1 p.m. when I began to notice snowflakes. 

Snow then came down rather heavily at times through the afternoon. There's a slushy coating on the ground as I write this. So far, I'm calling it 0.3 inches of new snow. I thought we were done with this! But Vermont weather always surprises.

Meanwhile, just a little south in Milton, Colchester and Burlington, people wondered what all the fuss was about. It didn't even start raining there until late afternoon, never mind snow. 

In northern New York and northwestern Vermont, it appears a pocket of deeper moisture swung around down from Quebec across this area. That meant heavier precipitation in this little corner of the North Country. This heavier precipitation helped cool the air, so snow aloft made it down to the surface. 

For much of the afternoon, many relatively high elevations of the Green Mountains were still getting rain, mixed with a little snow. Although it was consistently snowing across the mountain peaks. Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams showed just rain along high elevation Route 17 in Buels Gore.  Route 302 up high in Topsham was just changing to snow as of 4:15 p.m.

Route 105 in Jay was solidly in the snow, though, and it looked like at least an inch of accumulation there by 4 p.m. 

The expectation, or at least the hope, is the precipitation in northwest Vermont will gradually become more oriented to higher elevations as the night goes on. That would be good, because another late season heavy snow will cause more damage to my gardens. If the precipitation lightens up in low elevations, as expected, it might actually go back to rain briefly before turning back to flurries. 

As I wrote this at 5 p.m. it was still snowing in St. Albans, but it had pretty much tapered down to flurries by then.  Radar trends seemed to be indicating the snow was indeed starting to become more focused toward the mountains, and was trending a little lighter in northern New York and the northern Champlain Valley  

A surprise spring snowfall dusts a perennial garden in
St. Albans, Vermont in a most unwelcome way.

That the snow was beginning to spread into the central and northern Green Mountains pretty well by late afternoon. 

That part was expected. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the summits of the central and northern Green Mountains have storm totals of four to six inches, maybe even more, by tomorrow morning. 

The stalled storm that is causing this wintry weather will pretty much stick around through Saturday, but luckily, things won't stay as bad as they were today, at least in some parts of Vermont. 

Snow showers will go on every day through Saturday in the Green Mountains, but they will be relatively light and won't add much to the accumulation  up there.  Valleys, especially in the northern half of Vermont ,stand the chance of a few rain drops or snowflakes daily into Saturday. But that's about it. 

Still, there will be quite a few clouds around temperatures will stay well below normal and gusty northwest winds through Saturday will make it seem even colder. 

Forecasts still call for weather more in keeping with the season starting Sunday. 

Gloomy Day Turns Into Glorious, Ultra Colorful Surprise: Photo Essay

The big autumn rainbow over St. Albans, Vermont on
Monday. 

 I love what I call "come to pappa" moments in my weather geekdom.

Those are the moments when I don't have to seek out any interesting weather. No effort, no muss, no fuss.  

I had one of those wonderful incidents yesterday, when a quick trip to the door to let the dogs out to do their business led to the glorious surprises you see in this post. 

It had been a chilly, gloomy October day.  The skies all day had been gray and overcast, and sporadic showers kept things damp and dank.  Late in the afternoon, the showers intensified as breaks formed between those rain clouds. 

As the sun headed toward the horizon for the evening, all color broke loose.  The combination of dark clouds, bright sun, foliage was just the background.  A brilliant rainbow, one of the brightest I can remember formed behind the house. 

Another view of yesterday's double rainbow and fall
foliage in St. Albans, Vermont. 

I didn't have to go anywhere to enjoy the ultimate autumn show in Vermont. Just open the door and gawk. 

To best look at the photos, click on each one to make them bigger and easier to see. Scroll down past this verbiage as well to check out all the photos. 

I even took a brief video and posted to YouTube. You can see it below the photos, but if you have a mobile device, you'll want to click on this link to view it. 

I'm not sure if today will bring any more happy weather surprises.  The only new "news" to report is that the summit of Mount Mansfield finally touched 32 degrees this morning, making it the latest first freeze of autumn up there. It broke the old record by a whopping 13 days. 

The weather is forecast to be quite variable for the rest of the week into the weekend. Maybe a recipe for more photogenic weather? We'll find out! 

More photos and video:

Double rainbow, fall foliage, dark clouds Monday afternoon
St. Albans, Vermont 

Sun shines brightly on fall colors late Monday afternoon
as dark clouds and rain loom overhead, St. Albans, Vermont. 

Dark clouds, bright sun and fall foliage, St. Albans, Vermont

Roiling clouds and a shaft of rain are lit it by the setting
sun Monday in St.Albans, Vermont. 

Video: Rainbow, setting sun, clouds and foliage in St. Albans, Vermont Monday: